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Weekend Reading
- The best unknown activist investment of 2009 (Greenbackd)
- Words from the wise (Financial Armageddon)
- CME in talks to buy CBOE for $5 billion (Bloomberg)
- UBS warned U.S. customers by registered mail their account details may be given to U.S. tax authorities (Reuters)
- Goldman can spare you a dime (NYT)
- The extinction of ethics in finance - The Fallout (Reality Arbiter)
- China's September data suggests that the long-term overcapacity problem is only intensifying (M. Pettis)
- As we have long claimed, others now seeing Wachtell as biggest BofA loser (BreakingViews)
- Good news on Wall Street means... what exactly (Matt Taibbi)
- VIX posts worst losing streak in four years as Dow tops 10,000 (Bloomberg)
- Earnings coming from companies that are not merely recipients of Chinese and US excess liquidity benefits: may get very ugly quick (CNN)
- Look beyond usual suspects in countdown to next crisis (FT)
- Malone not in talks to buy NBCU, would be at a lower price (Bloomberg)
- Global banking body may be needed (Reuters, h/t Joe)
- Goldman Sachs: "Trading with advantages" (The Agonist, h/t news item)
- Overleveraged autosupplier Continental AG to sell junk bonds, idiots to buy (Bloomberg)
- Real homes of genius: An Economic Investigation of La Mirada. Median Sale Price, Incomes, Trends, Shadow Inventory, and the case for no Price Bounce. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Home Value from $157,000 to $570,000 (Dr Housing Bubble)
- SG: Worst case debt scenario (The Big Picture)
- Ottawa's bubble (Greater Fool, h/t H.)
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OT
Is Our Sleepy Sun Making Our Planet Cold?
I’m trying to think of a good headline for the masses written on a 4th grade level for the sheeple to understand for an article I’m writing.
Our Sun has been in a low output state for more than two years which is a major reason why last year was cold and why this year will be even colder.
Does this sound like a good starting point for an article on why it has been getting so cold in recent years?
I look forward to seeing you people freezing your Fing a$$e$ off to make you realize global warming, global cooling, and climate change are not your fault.
You must speak out to stop Obama from signing the Copenhagen Treaty in December, based on Man-Made global warming. They want to take control of the worlds energy markets blaming it on you because you are causing global warming with your CO2.
This is sort of what the article will be like.
What do you think of the headline?
P.S.
This is a Press release announcing the live stream feed of this new movie tonight.
Not Evil Just Wrong
Stream of Conscience: Not Evil Just Wrong to Stream Live, for Free, Over Internet This Sunday
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS172412+16-Oct-2009+PRN20091016
If you'd like to know more about solar activity there is a website that tracks it:
http://www.solarcycle24.com/
(browse the trends tabs and the wikipdia article for solar cycles to get more info)
The past is no predictor of the future, despite what you hear from those pesky statisticians. The solar minimum has been remarkably subdued but that is not an indicator that the maximum will be the same way.
Check out Hathaways (NASA) past predictions... he's constantly revised downward... IMO solar max will be under 60 SSN.
What I am really looking forward to is the satellite temps. Keep your eye on the RSS and UAH temps. Whether co2 or the sun is the primary planetary temp driver will be answered soon. (next 3 years)
I'll bet the sun... takers?
Instead, hire Michael Moore to make a movie about it.
He reaches the counch potato mainstream, has street cred.
But frankly, what the people want, when it comes to global fortunes to be made doesn't matter one wit. We don't exist.
The MSM education is woefully inadequate.
There's several factors about how it all works. First you have to understand wave particle duality. And how "objects" in space can "replicate" this wave particle duality. EVERY rotating object governed by gravity undergoes wave motions. But we get extra wave motions by mechanics. Our moon is 1/4 of the mass of our earth and it's center of graphity lies underneath the crust. This makes our earth "wave" more as it rotates around the sun. Like a 400 lb man skating circles with a 100lb woman the center of mass wobbles out sine waves as it rotates.
Our solar system is a pretty far on the outside spoke of our galaxy. As our solar system rotates around the galactic core at estimated 27000 years per revolution it also waves slowly up and down. But wave motion is directly related to pendulum motion and spends a good deal of time at tops while swinging through the bottoms with increasing rapidity or decreasing rapidity. That's probably what is setting of our sun to be "quiet" for so long. All the planets are tiny compared to the sun and all lay outside of the suns center of gravity but they still create huge torrents of mixing along the suns equator just by being linked to it through gravity. There's really no good mix of elliptical orbit patterning that explains how increasing interaction with the solar corona can cause much of an increase or decrease in coronal stirring or subsiding which would be governed by some planetary inputs and alot of plain old momentum from the particles involved. Blowing winds tend to keep blowing.
But the pattern is strange 11 years and 22 years. In numerology there are 22's but the sun doesn't really create 22's that much. We tend to get higher and lower variations of 11 and 22 year patterns. It sort of implies that it's a periodicity phenomenom either governed purely from the planetory orbital dynamics that slowly change and drag as the sun gives up matter to it's planets or it's a tiny pertubation affect of our solar system moving along little sine wave cycles as it rotates around galactic center. The sun may literally rage at either moving through swing phase or the reversing the swing phase and remain quiet during the other part of it. I hazard no guess as to what causes the spots or the quiet cycles as it probably some sort of complex gravitation interaction with every other galaxy in the mass. My guess is that given that given a 122 or so hertz cycle period (27000/22 for one complete cycle expressed in years instead of seconds) It would be a relatively steady fluxuation if it's galactic center based.
The trick is the mathematicians who want to model suns as purely democratic radiating everywhere at once type of models. But matter doesn't interact with anything but other matter Cooling on earth and mars and venus etc could be just warming on jupiter and saturn etc as the specific planetary motions connect each participant differently to the sun as they all cycle in mild or wild elliptical patterns.
There's basically too many unknowns. If we knew how matter matched to sine motion through frequncy as speed increased and we knew the absolute speeds of our solar system as it moved around the galactic center instead of just estimates we'd be alot better off. It's all in the particle wave functions wich are claimed to be understood but not. I just know that you can't rotate matter around other matter in a purely flat line at high speeds. It all starts waving more and more as it goes faster. And for the distances traveled our solar system is flat out booking it on the relativistic scale around the galactic center and planets orbiting the sun are cruising at pretty high speeds and little mass tricks like sun-planet combos can "mimic" faster movement speeds by creating artifical waviness in the particleness.
Waves goodbye slowly so I don't set off global warming by preturbing too much stuff.
a worthwhile read. thanks!
Hephasteus... that was an amazing read... I cannot believe that you just sat down and wrote all of that... but I know you did... I really enjoyed it... never knew that about the sun, earth, moon, solar system, and galaxy... thanks...
WTF, Hephasteus......
Your lingo gives you away....not really into calculus based physics, hunh? Not really into the documented solar cycles dating back 400 years? Not really into Ice core samples from antartica dating back 150,000 years giving global element concentrations, Not really into the dynamics of the sun's magnetic field flux and theories concerning sunspot activity?
Galactic Wave motion and numerology? Are you shitting me, or just trying to bullshit everyone else? The moon's center of gravity lies, "beneath the crust." NO shit sherlock. Take that new age crap and pitch it to the Mayan 2012 crowd. And while your at it, take a couple diffy Q based physics courses at whatever suffices for a community college in your bodunk, bead and hemp wearing town.
Jeez...Global warming is a hard enough issue to decipher without bringing incense and purple micordots into the exchange.
Yeah what he said... WTF? These are real pearls... "[if] we knew the absolute speeds of our solar system as it moved around the galactic center" - "Cooling on earth and mars and venus etc could be just warming on jupiter and saturn etc as the specific planetary motions connect each participant differently to the sun as they all cycle in mild or wild elliptical patterns." - "All the planets are tiny compared to the sun and all lay outside of the suns center of gravity but they still create huge torrents of mixing along the suns equator just by being linked to it through gravity."
Absolute speed to what? To "the ether"? The centre of the universe? Our irrational minds may like to scare our rational minds with all sorts of mumbo jumbo, but the reality is that there is no fixed point of reference in the universe, its all relative, surely a disconcerting notion if ever there was one.
Advanced engineering mathematics I. Advanced engineering mathematics II. All the differential equations you can handle except for the nonlinear nonhomgenous partials which you pretty much have to drill a hole in you head and pour in psychedelic drugs that flood every serotonin receptor site if you think you have solved those.
Michael,
You're always here posting on global warming. I'm curious, what makes you an expert? Seriously. Do you have any credentials? From my vantage point you are politicizing this debate - and you're no better than the global warming camp. Ok, you might be an iota better than the global warming activists, only because they are forcing change on unfounded science.
My point is that you do not know that anthropogenic global warming is NOT taking place. Just like the other side does not know that it is taking place. No body knows this answer. That's the point of scientific discovery. However, this topic has become infused with politics and funding, and science has been left behind. Anyone familiar with the effects of a priori on a scientific hypothesis and data gathering will understand that this has a lethal effect on truth.
I can't stand people that are so convinced that their side is right and all they do is cherry pick research or data that they believe supports their cause. Then they shout about it incessantly. You are one of those persons.
It's just until after the Copenhagen climate summit in order to make sure Obama doesn't go signing any treaty and the climate is declared not to be man's fault, concerning my postings on the subject. I'm just spreading the message. Climate study is my hobby. I've been researching the subject of climate science for more than 10 years on my own. I can tell you for sure, you are going to freeze your ass off this winter and the duration will be much longer than you are used to.
Weekend reading.
This is how they get us. As to why and who, thats a whole nother story.
PART ONE:
What is the Hegelian Dialectic?
http://nord.twu.net/acl/dialectic.html
PART TWO:
The Historical Evolution of
Communitarian Thinking
http://nord.twu.net/acl/evolution.html
Dont forget Antonio Gramsci's prison diarys....
Is Chinese drywall the next asbestos for the lawyers?
http://homedebtors.blogspot.com/2009/10/is-chinese-drywall-next-asbestos...
I bought a chinese drywall house in SW Florida for $32,500 built in 2006 with 1900sf, originally sold in 2006 for $311K. I'm, going to use it to make a documentary on the subject.
Cape Coral?
Drywall from China - how about pharmaceuticals from China - what most Americans don't realize is that big Pharma also offshores
http://www.attorneyatlaw.com/2009/10/fda-announces-changes-to-potency-of...
Goldman Sachs Adam Storch named to the newly-created position of Managing Executive of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement.
Adam is 29 years old and brings many, many, many years of experience to this important new role at the SEC.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-220.htm
a good companion article to "Ottawa's Bubble"
http://www.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20091017/RCMHC...
http://www.hulu.com/watch/102662/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-dow-jon...
I was surprised this clip hasn't been posted. Jon stewart illustrates how the dow chart and the inverse of the dollar index chart can copulate to create prosperity.
why is every captcha subtraction of a negative number? do bots crash when presented with subtracting negatives?
What Obama reads;
The Post-American World
http://www.infowars.com/what-obama-reads/
http://www.amazon.com/Post-American-World-Fareed-Zakaria/dp/039306235X
First the Neo-Cons and now Goldman Sachs- the american political system doesn't work anymore.
The article from Reality Arbiter, while certainly necessary to think about your broker/advisor..the historical significance attached to auction-rate markets freezing in Feb 2008 seems a little off.
CP markets, quality spreads in particular, began widening / tiering out late summer 2007 following mostly the infamous Bear 'MBS hedge fund debacles'. ABCP and SIV spreads went through the roof, and ABCP issuers had to deal with balance sheet constraints.. To comment that the ARPS market, large enough on it's own merit, but still a niche item was a canary in the mine gets a little far out. Wealthy & institutional buyers got hosed, notwithstanding.
The 'canary' had been tweeting for a while. MBS lenders were shutting in record numbers back in late 2006, and New Century in particular failed spring 2007. Primary-issue MBS markets were shutting down the securitization machinery by fall 2007.
Fire your broker if the returns suck or you get lied to. Either way, past performance is never a guarantee (that, or you've got certifiable connections...Goldman, Bilderberg, Rothschilds.)
Simmons states the decline of the markets and economy were "blatantly obvious" -- this is just another writer with 20/20 hindsight, Monday morning quarterbacking. The biggest question is why he did not convert this obvious market move into MANY millons for himself.
I will buy into his thought that people should be responsible for their financial affairs. But hope he understands that this is an anathema to those currently running the Federal government. They generally view most (i.e., most) need meaningful amounts of government help to find their way through life - they have a very low view of peoples' abilities and intellect and therefore want to run their lives. But few people see this slide we are on.
This quote from the VIX article is priceless:
“People are definitely a lot less fearful than they were a few weeks ago, and the fear that we’ll tank or that the rally is a complete illusion is subsiding after most of the earnings results were positive,”
earnings at GE, BAC and C were truly craptastical
The agonist.org article on Goldman has a good analysis of their recent quarterly earnings, which shows drops in income from investment banking activities but dramitic increases from trading and internal investments. The ultimate question asked is why Goldman, which is really a hedge fund, allowed to pretend to be a bank holding company with access to the Fed zero interest window?
That Financial Armaggedon site is quite depressing to read. The U.S will survive and if it does not the World will get dark very quickly. For all our faults we are the only hope for most people in the world. Remember the UN gets 90% of its support from the US and many people around the world who due to no fault of their own are born in countries where a corrupt despot rules really rely on the UN as there last hope.
I would suggest the United States is able to provide 90% of the U.N.'s funding because the United States greedily takes a disproportionate and obscene amount of the world's resources setting the stage for unchallenged economic success.
We are the one of the wealthiest nations on earth due in part to our military power and nuclear armaments, which we use to overtly and covertly bully and intimidate other countries. If the United States is no longer able to provide 90% of the U.N. funding due to world wealth re-distribution, then other countries may have the ability and desire to step in to help as well.
if the UN is a last hope, then all hope is gone :)