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Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence Plummets By 11% As Holiday Bills Arrive Following Weak Payrolls Number
The ABC Consumer Confidence index plummeted last week, falling from -41 to -47, sustaining "one of its steepest one-week drops in the last quarter century, following last week’s troubling jobs report with an all-hands retreat from what had been a tentative positive trend in consumer attitudes." At -47 the index is essentially at the average 2009 level of -48, and far below the average since 1985 of -12. As far as the US consumer is concerned, this recession is far from over.
The fall washed away an advance in which the CCI had improved to its best in 16 months. It’s vastly worse than its average, -12 in weekly polls since late 1985, much less its highs at the start of the past decade – including its record high, +38, 10 years ago this week.
Two of the index’s three components – ratings of personal finances and the buying climate – matched their largest-ever one-week drops, down by 5 and 4 points, respectively. The third measure, on the national economy, simply has less room to move; 91 percent say it’s bad.
This is what a dramatic and rapid loss of confidence in the economy looks like:
ABC had these observations for the reasons for the dramatic drop:
The drop follows last Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating a loss of 85,000 jobs in December, defying many economists’ expectations of growth. Unemployment remains at 10 percent – with four in 10 of the jobless out of work for more than 27 weeks. The arrival of Christmas shopping bills may also have contributed to the fall. While this has not been a consistent issue in past years, consumers may now be especially vulnerable to sticker shock given their low confidence overall.
Virtually every aspect of consumer financial strength is in the gutter:
Today 54 percent of Americans rate their personal finances negatively, up 5 points from last week (as noted, tying the record one-week spike) half or more for 74 of the last 77 weeks, a record by far. It’s 11 points worse than its long-term average. Seventy-six percent call it a bad time to spend money, also matching its largest one-week rise and 13 points worse than average. And, as noted, the third component of the CCI is the worst by far: Only 9 percent positively rate the economy, 29 points below average. Twenty-four percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 28 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent, last reached Oct. 19, 2008. Forty-six percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 51 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 39 percent June 28 and 21, 2009.
As for the trend, it is not the administration's friend:
The CCI had gained 6 points from early December until last week, reaching its highest since late September, 2008. That’s gone: The index is now within 7 points of its lowest, -54 last January. It’s been below -40 for a record 91 consecutive weeks. As noted, the 6-point one-week slide is highly unusual; the last weekly drop this sharp was in late July 2008. The CCI’s fallen by 6 points eight times, 7 points four times and 9 points once in its history.
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where did i read that the majority of americans ,, could not put thier hands on 2000 bucks in an emergency,,
jobless 22% some of the clown 250 please writers .. still take 10 percent i guess to keep intouch with the gangsters
2000 bucks? Sure Pal, sign here, wait 10 days for this credit card to arrive in the mail. No problem buddy!
40 days after you receive a bill with 40% base interest rate on your 2000 dollar loan.
Holidays and the associated cheer wears off about this time and the harsh reality sinks in when you realize you now need to work off last holiday season and possibly have little left for the upcoming holiday.
We have a solution to holiday spending. Most everyone in family is dead and gone, so... we spend 40 dollars for a full turkey dinner with stuffing and trimmings twice and give each other hand written Christmas cards. And that is the end of our Spending.
No bills to pay, no problem.
Now if we had kids....
When the national average for gas goes over $ 3 a gallon due to out of control speculation in oil again the number will even get worse most likely if they dont manufacture an increase in jobs next month as that will have a psychological effect on consumers.
Is it really "evil" speculators or currupt
worthless .gov printing money like it's water to
buy votes and feed the wall street gangsters and
miltary industrial complex...If we had sound gov
and with it a sound currency oil prices would be
based on supply and demand alone and speculation
would be to risky to bother with, people are using
oil as a inflation hedge against massive money
printing that will only accelerate as .gov's
entitlements to buy votes comes due and there's no
moeny to pay for it...That being said we are at
20 percent unemployment at 80 dollar oil, if we
go down to 10 percent demand would increase dramaticly and 150 oil would'nt be to far away, and back to
recession we go, this is a unescapable trap...
when will this number hit -300??
until we have fcking morons lining up outside Best Buy , we're never going to recover.
SAVE your money you idiots....
Yes, SAVE your money. Those few dollar bills you have are almost irreplaceable. Those dollars are the product of blood and sweat poured laboriously over a great amount of time.
The last time I saw lining up at a Best Buy was for a 60 dollar video game. I think Mw2 it was. Apparently collectively half a billion dollars was gathered by Infinity Ward first week after launch.
Check back at midnight, that is when the lines come and go on release day.
By the way they dont save money, they charge, borrow and wave other people's money to get the sought after object of thier desires... much like Miners at the red light district with thier paychecks gone by sunrise.
Clearly, this is a victory for the bulls.
Bob P.
trouble ahead, trouble behind
all i can see in my head now when i hear or hum 'casey jones' is warren buffett sitting in the locomotive engine of his new toy railroad.
Lmao deadhead. +1
Casey Jones, mounted to the cabin
Casey Jones, with his orders in his hand
Casey Jones, mounted to the cabin
and he took his farewell trip to the promised land.
Heard today that the huge pharma near us in the Philly burbs dropped the neutron bomb on the employees, just in time for this "recovery" so predicted by "many economists." Person who was terminated said "it was a bloodbath" and floors of this big pharma plant that once housed a hundred employees "now have 10." 6 months severance, then joblessness begins.
When is the March on Washington?
Ready.
Yeah, all that M&A good for the economy say CNBC. Maybe not so much. I don't hear much about job loss, but I know alot of good peeps out of work due to the SGP/MRK deal.
Message to congress: Pass health care reform or big Pharma shuts doen R&D and lays off thousands.
... and the baby seal gets it! Seriously. We need big pharma to come up with a single ultimate pill to fix everything so we can live our lives getting fat, smoking, and sitting around on asses without having to worry about anything. Do the right thing Congress, like you always do.
"We need big pharma to come up with a single ultimate pill to fix everything so we can live our lives getting fat, smoking, and sitting around on asses without having to worry about anything."
Big Government's been promising to do this for us since Wilson and still hasn't manage to get it right; I'm not sure Big Pharma would have much more success.
Marching on Washington is useless the real criminals are on Wall St. that is where the march should be.
Are you high?
this goes to show the long term thinking of the average person.. all was well until they got the bill.. lol
so they spent the dough,, all was okay until the bills arrived ,,
sort of like the dialing for nickles guys in the markets
actually, i'm feeling a bit more confident.
after a 30+ yr career in financial services in my mid fifties and laid off April 2008, I am now on my 4th follow up interview (competing now only against 9 other finalists) for the assistant greeter positon at the local Wal Mart Supercenter.
In case I am fortunate to beat out the 9 others, the good news is that they have a free training program: I work for free for 6 months while I learn how to assistantly greet.
Yeah, but just imagine all the great ass you'll be able to gander at.
Love your sense of humor. ;)
Monty Python all over again.....and you were lucky!!
Wow. Luck out. So I can use you as a reference, right?
DH are you serious? Sorry I browse comments from time to time so I'm not up to speed on everyone's background.
Cheers
GC
nevermind, just thinkin out loud, it must be bedtime.
Your sarcasm meter has to be turned all the way up, Gub, if you cruise these halls.
Good luck dude. I applied for a greeter position last year and....I didn't get the job. But they did offer me the job of rounding up the shopping carts in the parking lot. At first, I didn't think I'd like it. But once I got the hang of it, I wouldn't want to do anything else.
I'm sorry DH, you are too young for that position. You have to be a truly old fart to get the greeter beat.
Damn DH, didn't know I wasn't logged in and posted as an Anon. But what I essentially said was that you are far to young to be a greeter--that position is reserved for the truly old farts. So when that anon post says the same stupid thing it was me.....time for bed!
i understand that young thing but wal mart is shifting strategies to attract baby boomers.
it's a marketing thing for the boomers to save money by shopping wal mart or else they'll end up like me, lol!!
I'm inclined to think ZHers should help each other out somehow. Maybe in the posting section post a resume or something. Just sayin' - Philly area, employment wise (while pretty dismal) doesn't seem quite so bad as other places, and you can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a deadhead.
yes, lots of deadheads in that area for sure! Bobby Weir's band Ratdog still plays there when on tour.
for those inquiring, i was being tongue in cheek on the wal mart job matter. my point is that i feel horrible for anyone who is without employment and wants it and the scary part is that all demographics are having a time finding employment.
Especially us younguns. My girlfriend has four siblings under the age of 25 that simply cannot get a job. Her other two siblings that actually work work minimum wage jobs.
Great prospects for those of us in our 20s.
Good thing I'm back in school now. Then I'll have a leg up on being assistant walmart greeter when I graduate.
What's a follow up interview? For that matter, what's an interview? It's been so long I've forgotten.
Try using craigslist. I don't want to brag, but tomorrow I will have gone on five interviews since last Thursday.
And that's out of about ten applications...
watch out for day after holiday sales... the herd of "brimming with confidence" shoppers might roll over you deadhead..
futures certainly don't seem fazed by this, they are not even down last I checked. I wonder what it would take at this point to invoke mass selling? It is kind of hard to imagine much worse news than the recent survey and the housing numbers last week and the employment numbers
Why would consumers be confident, what is there to be confident about?
I guess they can be confident Bernanke will continue to pay for the banker bailouts out of their paychecks.
Beautiful writeup, TD.
Those deltas are damn scary. I mean, the biggest drop since July 2008?? That would put us at 1-3 months before a major market event.
Went to 3 retailers this past weekend for the first time in many months (Macy's Marshall's and Bob's Stores).
Inventory seemed to suck. Everything looked like shit to me and coupled with prices they were asking, things looked even worse.
In line to check out, 2 woman had cards rejected and both acted like nothing happened and just forked over another. What will they do when that doesn't work?
It was surreal, I must have looked like a maniac as I stood on my toes trying to look at all the registers to see if it was happening in every line.
interesting, that was one of the predictions of the guy at iTulip, that America would become like a third world country in that inventory will start to dwindle, interesting thesis:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11368
"Advice to readers: take advantage of the early 2009 Great American Fire Sale and go out and buy all the generators, chain saws, washing machines, fine linens, cars, and other durable goods you’re going to need for the next few years because by the end of 2009 most of the inventory may be sold through, many retailers will be shut down, and replenishment of stocks of the survivors will likely be meager; our models say that the goods import supply will decline more precipitously than the supply of money available to pay for them. That spells severe stagflation."
good call, cheap chinese goods, are not gonna be cheap in the future, solar panels, are at an all time low, per watt right now. camping gear too. and shoes, if you're done growing, get a few pair, for later, something comfortable to walk in. http://sunelec.com/ buy on the dips
(note to self: chain saw, supplies and 2 Glock 9 mms. Will accept Springfield Armory 9mms.)
I have great confidence in Ammunition Sales, Weapons related purchasing and associated prep material and supplies.
If they will only STOP counting the customers at the Mall and START tracking those who are making ready, I bet the Delta will go the other way as in a mirror.
Must be typical New York Accounting, Guns dont exist therefore no one must be spending any money outside of mall.
I have a portable generator but it needs about 5 gallons of gas a day. Also, have Gas Chain Saw. I think this is one of the most important things. I want to get extra 2 and 1 Oil, about 3 extra chains and friend recommended spark plugs for the Chain Saw. Have water purifier, lamp oil, batteries for flash lights, radio, lots of matches and lighters. Also have a gun and bullets for hunting and protection.
I want to get a whole house Generator which runs on Propaine so my well pump will work. I also want to get a Wood Stove.
Slowly buying non perishable items like Coffee, Flour, Peanut Butter, canned Ham, canned Tuna fish, Soups, dried beans, instant potatoes, instant rice, detergent, soap, and of course toilet paper.
Family talking about who's home we would use if something happened as it would probably be manditory for everyone to group together for heat, food and protection. Guys could hunt and chop wood. Women could garden, cook and Granny can watch the Children.
Be sure to get enough for your neighbors...when the whole town is dark, your house will stick out like a lighthouse.
We've already discussed turning our neighborhood watch into the neighborhood garbage, food collection and ambulance service.
If we don't stick together, we're screwed.
DH,
I have to admit I'm not quite feeling it...maybe it's because I was forced to lay off my entire team this year and watched all the positions get outsourced to factories in asia. Our primary competitor did the same this year. These project management jobs are gone and unfortunately not coming back. Still, I'm watching American Idol's new season and I already feel better.
It would be interesting to see a historical chart of aggregate after-tax wages in the United States compared to consumer debt (including housing) over the same period. We all know what it would look like, but I'm curious.
Top Holiday toy purchase by Wall Street bankers:
1. The Federal Reserve piggy bank: put household garbage (like MBSs) in piggy's mouth, and piggy drops Treasuries out its rear.
And, to boot, the Obamacare is going to cost a married couple and under 30 year olds near 2000 dollars EXTRA for the same medical.
And, to boot, the cities are trying to balance the budget on the backs of the working class by issuing more fines, citations,taxes,tickets.
And, to boot, prices for food to go up
And, to boot, oil is higher
And, to boot, the USG is involved in 70% of all economic activity now and killing productivity
And, to boot, state taxes will go up everywhere to fund ridiculous pension systems and bloated(and growing)salaries for parasitic gov. employees
I think I hear Nancy Sinatra singing in the background...
"one of these days these boots are gonna walk all over you.."
Under thirty year olds.... so you mean we'll have NO healthcare after Obamacare (like we currently have now?)
I love growing up in a world that was sucked dry by my parents and listening to them complain.
Worry..... why???
There are green shoots and Ben told : recession is over.
And how would I grade this recovery?
B+.
Solid B+.
Post holiday-- reality sets in..
Negative home equity, 17% real unemployment (Cramer--"its good for America"--right), health care taking hundreds of billions out of the economy in taxes and mandates before anyone "benefits", cap gains going to 27+% at the end of 2010 and divvies to either the same as cap gains or 36%, states cranking sales, corporate and individual tax rates, fees, 1/3 of mortgages under water, crappy GDP growth, "to big to fail" running the Fed and Treasury, etc etc...
A lot of People also had to buy Heating Oil last month. Myself included. With the cold winter the oil is being eaten by my Oil Burner like water pouring out of a spigot. Just 100 gallons was $260. I keep the heat on 60 degrees and expect that I will have to buy another 100 gallons this month and now the FED or Goldman is pumping Oil prices I expect I will have to pay close to $3 per gallon.
For the first time I called for Oil they are now quoting prices to purchase 50 gallons. They previously only delivered 100 gallons at a time.
I also have noticed that Food prices are going up. I try to buy the specials only and also pick up some for my Daughter who does not have the time to run store to store for the specials.
So, why would consumers be confident about anything. Their daily costs are going up up up.
Did you forget, goldman and JPM and probably the
rest of the wall street gangsters all rented multiple
oil tankers full of heating oil and had them sit at
sea waiting for price to rise, all paid for
via the legion of doom (turbo timmy,bernanke,obama)
sucking the middle class dry....Of course .gov will
subsidize section 8 wellfares heating oil sucking even
more cash from the middle to do this, and all the
while the wall street gangsters slip a couple of
20's into congress and obamanations pocket while
collecting billions in profit...
I wish they all could be california
I wish they all could be california
bonds.....! LOL
Concerning jobs, after 2 yrs on disability recovering, I lucked out and found work as an insurance inspector. Part time work that pays better than full time minumum wage but puts a terrible amount of milage on a personal car. Now in this little Iowa town, Buffet moved a train car bumper repair facility and another company is opening a trailer building and repair shop. We lost 600 jobs in a town of about 6000. Maybe a total of 100 jobs coming back. Gonna try to get 1 of these but the parking lot is full of pickups seeking the same.