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Weekly Chartology
Goldman may have hit the iceberg, but at least David Kostin keeps on playing the groupthink music which always validates Farrell's rule #9. "Portfolio managers with whom we met on the West Coast this week expressed strong bullishness on the near-term direction of US equities and several had earnings estimates for 2010 and 2011 that were substantially above both our and bottom-up consensus forecasts." In other words everyone is convinced that the Fed will never regain its monetary independence and keep ZIRP at least until Obama's second presidential campaign.
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zirp 4evah
The market has exhibited an odd obsession with Peak Earnings. On the recent BSX CC one of the analysts pitched a softball to the management slugs by asking what they thought the company's Peak Earning power was. The worthless losers couldn't even hit that. It was a silly leading question but it says a lot about the absurd valuations some company's have attained during the melt-up.
The analyst sell hope in the form of illusionary projected earnings based on steroid induced present earnings. Consumers:
Tax receipts are down over 17% while unemployment and real estate are getting murdered. You don't have to be too smart to realize that the math doesn't work.
Companies should be priced at the dividend that theyare capable of paying for products that sell to consumers; real products, not leveraged illusions based on accounting gimmicks.
It doesn't work both ways: you can't have national socialism and/or fascism and have capitalistic free market prices on equities for an extended period of time before a blow down.
I don't think there will be a second campaign ... It looks like Obama pulled a Tiger Woods.
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/obama_cheating_scandal_vera_baker_video_...
And the National Enquirer somehow magically "disappears " after revealing this information. How convenient :-)
Fortunately google can still assist in digging up the info:
http://www.pamil-visions.net/national-enquirer-down/214767/
Cant control ZIRP if ya cant control ZIP - eh?
Saturday morning reads
and interview with Niall Ferguson on the U.K.'s 'massive' fiscal crisis, China etc.
http://www.financialpost.com/story-printer.html?id=2973592
and came across this gossip whilst I was searching for the above story
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/story.html?id=2535808&s=Today%27s%20Newspaper
Thank you for this gossip. I guess it's not too difficult to find a topic of conversation at a cocktail party with any of those three.
I wish I could borrow a trillion from the fed at 0% and bet it all on zirp 4evah.
I bet it's been said here before that this Goldman "witch hunt" serves as a perfect excuse for the market crash ahead under the Obama administration while placing the blame on the GOP for their lack of financial regulation. Financial regulation will be the battle cry for the Dems in the elections this year.
$99 oil = $2.56 gasoline in 12 mths?
$6 Nat gas?
1.5% gdp 3rd and 4th qtr 2010?
Yet 2011 will be great?
We've crossed the threshold. We've gone from an economic debate to a political one (of course the two are just siamese twins joined at the heart). The tone has changed. Once the threshold has been breached it's difficult to put the genie back in the bottle. Expect more of the same. There's a couple of reasons for it. First, the political discourse has been repressed for a long time. A decade of post 9/11 security paranoia made the repression worse. Next, you have a growing underclass that's not only impoverished and disenfranchised but developing a growing sense of hopelessness. That's the magic ingredient. That sense is spreading up the ranks to the somewhat less desperate but anxious masses. This is one area that truly is different this time. Aspirational Americans becoming "Desperational". My word. You heard it hear first.
Totally agreed with that sentiment.
The economy is like a carburetor that has a systematic dysfunction. The gov. and fed have been trying to prime the pump to ignite a self perpetuatin long term start. However, the carburater needs to be rebuilt or replaced.
This can only be done by US consumers and the goverment willing to go thru the bloo, sweat and tears that accompany the recgnition and acceptance of the problem. Subsequently, a long term (100 yrs) plan needs to be debated, voted on, and implemeted for energy, entrenpreneurial enterprise, and a manufacturing base.
Damn, is this true that North Korea blew up the oil rig in the GULF? WTF?
http://investmentwatchblog.com/may-1-2010-us-orders-blackout-over-north-...
DOW chart shows an expanding wedge indicating a significant move is probable.
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