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Weekly Chartology
Presenting the weekly market chart summary. And the now standard head in the sand language from David Kostin: "Despite a week of dramatic moves, S&P 500 is on pace to finish the week roughly flat. Short covering helped drive the market higher to start the week before Eurozone concerns resurfaced. In US and European equity markets, relative views on GDP and FX have favored US vs. European exposures. US corporate and macro fundamentals remain strong, which should support stocks once macro headwinds fade."
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"have favored US vs. European exposures. US corporate and macro fundamentals remain strong, which should support stocks once macro headwinds fade"
I HOPE HE'S RIGHT! Almost impossible to position trade in these huge daily swings. If we can get a sustained stable move up new short positions can be initiated before the end of the Bush tax cuts this year.
Thanks
"Short covering helped drive the market higher to start the week before Eurozone concerns resurfaced"
Lessons learned
-It's concern that drives the market, not the fundamentals.
Now I'm concerned.
-The bears are driving the markets higher
So... the Bulls.... are crashing the markets?!
I will now pursue a bullish stance and long the crap out of this market.
DOW 1000 here I come!
LMAO
How could short covering have driven the market higher when the market opened at it's highs for the week Monday morning. In reality the market was driven up in afterhours so that the shorts couldn't cover and would get roasted.
How could short covering have driven the market higher when the market opened at it's highs for the week Monday morning. In reality the market was driven up in afterhours so that the shorts couldn't cover and would get roasted.
I'm not trying to tell you that the short-covering has caused market melt ups, David Costin however apparently is blaming the shorters ;o)
So yeah, you kinda prove my point.
The real problem starts when the shorters start to realise fundamentals stink and that they in fact are on the right side of the trade and stop their alledged "covering".
You'd better start wiping the dust of your Dow 1000 hat once that happens.
LMAO
Yes, right.
So, at what point (given the larger moves down over the last week) do the moves cease being short squeezes and become bull squeezes?
DavidC
Let me try to help you there,
I think we have to conclude from the OP that concerned shorters, fundamentals suck, are the direct cause of the market rally.
While the non-concerned Bulls, everything is hunky-dory camp, are crashing our markets.
If, by any chance, the concerned shorters should stop being concerned this market would crash Big time.
The key is: "concern"
LMAO
"...should support stocks once macro headwinds fade"
Sure, they will fade next week. GS live in another planet with no sovereign credit crisis.
"Everything is fine. Go back to your regularly scheduled programming."
Whatever, dude. We all have the right to be morons.
weekend reading
Repeat After Me: The USA Does NOT Have a ‘Greece Problem’
By Marshall Auerback
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2010/05/repeat-after-me-usa-...
Return to the Abyss
Nouriel Roubini
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini25/English
Fiscal crisis, contagion, and the future of euro
Marco Pagano
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5041
From a trading perspective Kostin is probably right in the mid-term (for 3-6 months), once the European situation is talked into the ground by politicians and mainstream media (with no meaningful change). Companies seem to be doing fine. Individuals (excluding rich people) and governments seem to be treading water at best, and leaking water in the aggregate, even with interest rates at 0-5%. The frantic trading will resume in a week or so because every smart person knows the crash is coming and you better make as much money now as you can.
There are plenty of bullish news ahead for stocks: unemployment benefits are running out; dividend/capital gains tax is about to rise; falling euro will propell revenues for US companies trading in Europe; oil spill will produce economic boom on the Gulf coast; TBTF banks will repeat zero trading losses feat; housing is doing great according to ABACUS father...
don't forget the locust swarms in the West, eating cattle feed and wheat to make ag commodities fly! www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/swarms_of_grasshoppers_predict.html
Don't mean to school you but you left out the cancellation of Law & Order.
For anyone who feels like going full retard...
Why Investors Should Resist the Gold Frenzy - BusinessWeek
I was just about to post this. I sat there smiling while I read this article.
Must be a bubble cause less than 0.1% of the population owns gold.
Best line from the article:
"And, unlike insured bank deposits, there is no guarantee of your principal investment."
Full retard indeed...
Maybe insured, maybe insured at cents in the dollar if SHTF or insured but you just can't touch it yet.
Quote of the day!
Does anyone think Obama will outlaw the private ownership of gold as FDR did in 1933?
I am not a BO supporter, but, if things get anywhere near the range of financial doom that many respected people believe, he won't have much of a choice.
Uhuh, because now that the government has spent all of its money and all of your money, they have to steal your gold too so they can continue to do what they want. They won't get mine.
Let me hold your gold for you over here in Australia :)
That is why USA Americans must take this country back from the Progessive Anti-Americans by kicking all of the a-holes out of Congress this November. By some stroke of luck we might get a majority who are uncorruptable at least long enough to end the madness.
But if they do confiscate gold be damn sure it won't be at $1000 per ounce.
No.
I think the the current US corporate fundamentals are already priced in in this market. Actually, I stand corrected overpriced in. And while the equity market is considered the leading indicator and most of the time it is, I wonder if at this particular moment it is lagging the poor fundamentals that yet have to effect it. I haven't seen much of the revenue growth exempt for a few tech firms, have anyone? And without the revenue growth the V shape recovery is just HOPIUM and nothing more.
I have a personal bias against gold ownership that has nothing to do with the market fundamentals.
Holding onto gold leaves you in the position of a typical drug baron. You have too many sacks of cash, you might engender reprisals, you can't conceal it adequately, it's too expensive to insure, and you leave yourself vulnerable to arson and other dirty tricks.
The only guys I can see of who can own gold safely would be those that have the acumen to operate off-books bullion warehouses, or have it stored in a neutral country like Switzerland. Maybe London. You have no idea how crazy those guys will get over in the UK, though.
I agree that if you buy gold and brag about it you are inviting a theft. However, the only real safe place for gold (I am assuming most of us have less than 50 ounces) is in you possession.
Vote for Pedro.
Are you saying that you think holding your wealth as digital bits at a bank or brokerage is safe(r)?
Despite all the hysteria and hype of "This is it!"...
Rasputin
- Sat, May 15, 2010 - 10:26 AM
...and "It is now!", it really WASN'T "It!" or "Now!".
For, according to this week's "Credit Bubble Bulletin", found here:
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10376
...virtually ALL stock indices, bond indices and international
reserve growth categories were UP last week, and are also POSITIVE for
the year.
Not to mention that even though the Fed ostensibly pulled outta
buying Fannie/Freddie debt and MBS, McMortgage rates are DOWN.
(Ras Conclusion): Once again, it is plain to see that nothing,
NOTHING will stop "The Greatest Economic Recovery Ever Witnessed by
Mankind." Not "Flash Crashes", not Eurozone implosions, not sclero
collapses, not "oil volcanos" in the gulf...nothing.
LOL, and to hear the Perma-Doomers screeching their screeds, we are
somewhere between "Great Depression II" and "Great Disintegration I".
Well, somebody needs to tell the stock, bond and international
markets of our supposed demise.
So, "Inflate or Die" it will continue to be,
until the deflationary forces finally DO overwhelm the fiatsco flinging.
Then, the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle of a new currency--with a
dozen or so zeros lopped off--and all the other rotten infrastructure
(fractional reserve krnding, central banking) still in place, and the
sheeple none the wiser.
And the "Alpha Dogs" still in charge, of course.
Sheesh, this is all so predictable, a chimpanzee could do it with
stunning accuracy.
You make me feel as though I am running through the streets of a Berlin bombing raid naked, holding onto my hard hat and man parts.
All that really matters short term (next week) is stock prices soaring to new highs going into options expiration as Greece pays its obligations on May 19th coinciding with a short squeeze in the euro. The blood letting stopped this week. It shouldn't have but it did and that is remarkable seeing how the system failed on Thursday. A second 1/2 slow down is coming but not here yet. Let there be a higher platform to short from.
The US Dollar.........
The Best looking horse in the Glue Factory....
Gold and silver is telling you what you need to know. Oil gets a boost from Euro manipulation (FIAT is just that, manipulated) and most likely also due to the plateau spikes (yes oil production has plateaued). Corps having it out (Cisco, WFMI, CAT), traders confused (whats new?), and miners shredding it. Watch out for SLW, corp of the decade!
Also, the tightness of the PMs is indicating a massive move up...are you sure you want to keep shorting JPM/GS? Oh, I forgot, you have an unlimited supply of FIAT. Burn paper burn, disco inferno!!!!
My bullish USD warnings since 2009 on weekly and monthly charts have not changed and further USD strength and thus EURO weakness is still expected, so USD rally and EURO downtrend will continue.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1