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Weekly Chartology

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A. Joseph Cohen's replacement as Goldman's bullish headpiece, David Kostin, shares the highlights from the Q&A at the GS Global Macro Conference. And also a lot of charts, updated to the prior week.

Q&A from the Goldman Sachs Global Macro Conference – Asia 2010

We polled more than 800+ clients attending the portfolio strategy session at our Global Macro Conference for their answers to four key questions. The answers were illuminating in several important respects.

Question 1: What issue most worries you (rank from most to least worried)?

Answer: 1. Double Dip (31%). 2. Emerging Market (EM) inflation (30%). 3. Developed Market (DM) deflation (22%). 4. DM inflation (17%). The results suggest great ambivalence on the part of the  professional investor class regarding the economic terrain that lies ahead, but also lifts the stakes on the outcomes of policymakers’ choices, particularly with respect to the timing and pace of stimulus removal. Stepping back, the idea that developed market inflation and deflation are viewed almost equally asprimary risks shows the extraordinary level of uncertainty that exists in the minds of fund managers and is reflected our conversations with clients.

Question 2: Which of these assets are you most positive or overweight?

Answer: 1. Equities (38%). 2. Commodities (18%). 3. Cash (15%). 4. Alternatives (private equity/hedge funds) (14%). 5. Corporate bonds (10%). 6. Government bonds (5%).

Question 3: Which of these assets are you most negative/underweight?

Answer: 1. Government bonds (39%). 2. Cash (27%). 3. Commodities (10%). 4. Alternative (private equity/hedge funds) (9%). 5. Corporate bonds (8%). 6. Equities (7%). The favored assets of equities and commodities (a combined 56%) were consistent with the answer to another question about whether the next two months would be a risk-on (58%) or risk-off (42%) market. The answers were also consistent with the negative view managers have regarding government bonds and cash asset classes (a combined 66%).

Question 4: Which one of the following equity markets do you expect tobe the best performer in 2010?

Answer: 1. China (29%). 2. US (22%). 3. Japan (15%). 4. India (12%). 5. Russia (11%). 6. Brazil (9%). 7. Europe (2%). We also expect EM will outperform DM on a short-term and long-term basis. We expect EM GDP growth will be 3.4X DM growth in 2010, and 3.2X higher over the next 40 years. However, benchmark equity capitalization is heavily weighted towards DM (87% vs. 13%); this will undoubtedly change over time. We forecast weaker 2010 sales in DM than EM. Earnings growth and valuations are similar. EM liquidity is lower and more variable (Exhibits 1-3).

 

 

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Sat, 02/20/2010 - 13:54 | 238776 Pamela Anderson
Pamela Anderson's picture

Thanks for the info ZH!

Has anyone read the book: "How I Caused the Credit Crunch" by

Tetsuya Ishikawa. Any thoughts about it??

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 14:32 | 238802 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

you have to love the p/e chart where they freely mix the ntm p/e with historical, which is trailing p/e. trailing s&p p/e is 21 right now

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 23:52 | 239046 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Homebuilders at 56!

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:45 | 238841 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Where is the secret decoder ring required for reading between the lines anytime the squid opens it mouth?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 20:29 | 239570 e_goldstein
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Try printing out the text and then covering it with goat's blood.  A few incantations to Blankfein's "god," and voila, the unholy runes appear.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:53 | 238845 AnonymousMonetarist
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Off-topic

Market mood music, I'll play you a little tune on my violin...

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/02/ill-play-you-little-tune-on-my-violin.html

 

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 09:17 | 239138 Anonymous
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AnonMonetarist,

Your blog is unlike anything I've ever seen.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 16:02 | 238848 deadhead
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It is notable that 31% of Goldman clients are worried about a double dip and only 38% are positive equities, given Goldman's mid year SPX forecast of 1300 and year end of 1250.

 

 

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 17:34 | 238881 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Goldman's clients are smart enough not to believe them but not smart enough not to be their clients.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 17:42 | 238883 Andrei Vyshinsky
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Daneric sees a wave 3 at this point. There's a news item at Calculated Risk to the effect that the German Finance Minister reports no plans for aid to Greece. I'd say down hard Monday, what say?

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 18:59 | 238913 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Daneric has been predicting P3 for months! What's your point?

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 21:36 | 238979 Andrei Vyshinsky
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The point is his view of the timing.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 19:57 | 238939 order6102
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Question 1: What issue most worries you (rank from most to least worried)?

Answer: 1. Double Dip (31%). 2. Emerging Market (EM) inflation (30%). 3. Developed Market (DM) deflation (22%). 4. DM inflation (17%). 

good post. now clear why market can not go down. everyone bearish? who going to sell it?

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 23:08 | 239022 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER counter trend rally continues for the time being ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 00:22 | 239055 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Consider the following blog entry if investing in gold, or gold miners:

 

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2010/02/gold-miners-vs-gold-f...

 

-F6

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 23:20 | 239743 colonial
colonial's picture

how many research products does GS have?  Maybe this is  their lets get everyone long and short concept piece.  Most ZH readers are looking at charts that don't make sense.  This market, and a number of key stocks including GS, should be rolling over, but who's got the stones to short them when doing so has been suicide...what a bizarre market.  Maybe Lazlo is right and this research ends up being accurate. 

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 15:53 | 242061 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Facing Challenges of Brazilian Private Equity: Part II

By Zack Henry & Eric Saucedo

Financial Transparency

This is perhaps the mother of all issues when considering the more common challenges in successfully raising private equity capital. And it’s not an issue solely relevant to Brazil and/or Latin America, as it is an issue facing any early-stage or middle-market company worldwide looking to raise capital via the private equity market. It is the subject of much frustration among private equity professionals and company executives alike, and perhaps the single most common reason why most potential transactions reach an unfortunate and untimely death.

to read full article visit:
http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/38/private-equity/facing-challen...

Sat, 04/17/2010 - 10:55 | 305607 Tom123456
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