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Weekly Chartology

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Even Goldman's clients are increasingly challenging the firm's unrelenting bullish outlook: David Kostin says: "Our view that S&P 500 earnings will approach prior peak levels in 2011 represents a key argument supporting our bullish view on US equities. However, it remains the single most contentious point in our recent meetings with both the micro and macro investors. Separately, 10% of S&P 500 sales originate in Europe. Stocks with high revenue exposure face headwinds and should lag the broader market."

And here is what the world looks like through 3D, rose-colored glasses:

Our top-down EPS forecasts of $76 and $90 for 2010 and 2011 reflect +33% and +20% growth, respectively. Our pre-provision and write-down EPS forecasts are $81 for 2010 and $91 for 2011. Bottom-up consensus forecasts a 39% increase in 2010 to $79, and a 20% increase in 2011 to $95.

Surely Europe filing Ch.11 will only raise the 2011 EPS forecast.

 

 

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Sat, 02/27/2010 - 12:39 | 247912 rubearish10
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Well, these forecasts only happen to coincide with their ability to dictate market trends like we saw last Thursday and many times before during the HeliBen era. Come on.....it doesn't take that much rocket science to make such forecasts, does it??

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 13:37 | 247957 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Transports are leading, not lagging the Dow:

And the top performing sector at the moment is retail:

The Euro might be beginning a turn.....

And the commodity stocks might be turning simultaneously off this needle bottom which was unable to take out the previous low....

And don't forget the banks.....

Too close to call, but a couple more days up upside could confirm another leg up....

And if they can get the upside mo-mo going, its going to be "Party Time" on Wall St.

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 23:11 | 248419 jeff montanye
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but you've got to ask yourself: are they real?

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 23:32 | 248436 zerofaith
zerofaith's picture

chile's copper supply being out for a week might help resources leg up

Sun, 02/28/2010 - 16:14 | 248898 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

a wise friend of mine once said... "if i can touch them, then they're real."

simple yet profound.

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 14:13 | 247987 Fritz
Fritz's picture

So I assume Goldman believes congress will keep throwing stimulus programs out thru 2011. How else could you assume 15% profit growth with no driver for jobs?

 

 

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 15:18 | 248035 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What no one seems to take into account is the way the millions of small business owners feel about Obamanomics and the coming massive tax increases that will crush their business and their lives. People are getting wise to the bullshit coming out of Washington. Goldman seems to think they don't matter. It's all about iPod sales to them....

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 19:12 | 248206 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Dear Goldman:

So, you're saying that this time it's different, right?

Thanks.

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 22:20 | 248351 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Conversation with contractor....

(H)IM "Maybe tsunami will help create lots of work."

(M)e  "That'd be an intersting twist. Finally something to get people working"

H  "Oh no. I'm working. Well for now."

M  "REALLY?"

H  "Well I am. My guys are not"

M  "What trade are you in?"

H  "Everything. I'm a contractor."

M "And you have enough work? Excellent."

H "Well I've been in business for a long time. Well. Also I'm taking anything I can get"

 

So the Top Of The Foodchain is doing Bottom Of The Foodchain work to stay afloat?  Bottom Of The Foodchain is doing what?  Yes Deadhead.  It definitely is different this time.  We are forever the comparison of what not to be for perhaps centuries.

BTW. That conversation was no joke.

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 22:36 | 248371 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This says it all to me. The mercenaries at Goldman, working in conjunction with the Fed, will be doing everything in their power to push the market higher in the near term. Explains all the questionable activity in SPY and the futures every time we get even close to a break-down level. I've also noticed they're trying to sneak some of the REITs and banks higher in advance of all the naysayers who will claim we can't go higher without the financials.

Sun, 02/28/2010 - 02:11 | 248561 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The equity uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger downtrend that started in 2000.

But more counter trend rally this week it seems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Sun, 02/28/2010 - 03:01 | 248581 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Re retail (XRT), that's one I really don't get. The ETF is at its highest level since _October 2007_. One would think, with joblessness and consumer sentiment being what they are, that such a level would be kinda impossible. Comments?

XRT chart:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximize...

Sun, 02/28/2010 - 09:24 | 248636 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Heck....Goldman's own internal forecasts from Hatzius
show a continuing slide down to a likely 1% GDP print for the fourth quarter, so no wonder the clients are asking questions. I guess GS figures they don't need no stinkin'
GDP to make S&P earnings targets. More likely.... they
actually did buy the bottom with TARP and QE funds and
need to distribute. Clients be damned.

Sun, 02/28/2010 - 20:59 | 248998 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gains should be taken in Coke and Pepsi, retail (any and all clothing stores), small caps in tech, and the Doelarr.  This week should be the last week the doelarr shows any strength, real or perceived.  A quick DXY jump to 81.5 on Tuesday should mark it's last significant move up....ever.

The second half of the week should see gains from the dogs and from the mining sector, as well as energy.  Gold should begin to see daily gains of full percentage points.  The fourth of March will be the turning point.

I do not believe Merkle will cut Greece out from the EZ.  That move would spark the ending of the Euro, and considering ALL of Europe's problems, I think this is child's play in relation to the US Government's condition.  Europe has a functioning health care system, they as a continent have more gold per capita than any other geo-political area, and they are not spending trillions upon trillions of doelarrs every year on global wars.  The end of the American Empire is at hand.

Why has the media not discussed the recent failed auctions of the US Treasury?  Not to mention the previously failed auctions before last week?  They want "Greece to burn" as to cause a smokescreen surrounding the real problem, the U.S.A.

Fri, 04/16/2010 - 10:45 | 303913 Tom123456
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