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Weekly Chartology And Key Event Summary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two for the price of zero: first, we present David Kostin's weekly chartology, which once again focuses on the only good thing to discuss these days: US corporate earnings which have now seen 45% of companies report (note: not European ones which as we pointed out on Friday have been abysmal so far). Here, among other things we learn that Apple now accounts for 40% ($0.23/share) of the $0.57 aggregate in EPS surprise beat for the S&P 500. Said otherwise, and the cumulative trailing "beat" for all the remaining companies in the S&P would have been 40% lower. In summary: "Three key numbers: 18% year/year EPS growth, 13% revenue growth, and 64 bp of margin expansion" Another notable observation which is in line with our prediction from mid May that staples will outperform discretionary: "Market participants will be surprised to learn that Consumer Staples growth is stronger than Consumer Discretionary growth for both sales (8% vs. 4%) and earnings (7% vs. 5%). Philip Morris International (PM) is a key contributor to growth in Consumer Staples. Actual results together with consensus expectations indicate slight margin declines in Telecom Services and Consumer Staples relative to 2Q 2010." Some may indeed be surprised, others not so much. Lastly, Kostin still sees 1450 on the S&P by the year end despite Hatzius' cut to estimates last week. Second, also included is last week's key event summary.

Here is the one chart that summarizes corporate earnings so far:

The full presentation is below, but first, last week's key bullish and bearish events courtesy of Rational Capitalist Speculator

Bull

+ IBM, Microsoft, and Intel earnings results point to continued business spending and expanding operations.  Meanwhile, a very positive report from GE points to credit demand making a come back.  Businesses are preparing for increased global demand led by China. Meanwhile, growth  in offshore earnings will ensure that S&P500 companies maintain steady earnings growth and keep the bull market chugging. (Don’t own nor am I shorting any of these companies)

+ This week’s rally was set off by the inevitable solution to the Eurozone debt
crisis.  For all who were chicken-littling, you missed a great
opportunity to buy.  The Nasdaq and S&P were up almost 4% this week,
while the Dow was up roughly 3%.  Markets like to climb a wall of worry
and that’s exactly what they did.      

+ The slowdown in the global economy is transitory as Japan, the main
victim of the exogenous shock that was the earthquake and nuclear
disaster, just reported a trade surplus and signals that supply is making its way back online.
 Their economy is recovering and will translate to a global rebound in
the second half of the year.  The Eurozone is also bouncing back with
manufacturing orders for May zooming higher by 3.6% vs. expectations of a 0.8% rise; the increase was led by Spain, Italy, and France.     

+ Slowly but surely, the construction sector is getting back on its feet.  The US Housing Starts report posts a surprise gain and its best result since the beginning of the year.  Another indicator, the Buildfax Residential Remodeling Index just turned in its highest reading in the index’s history.  Housing affordability is at its best in 3 decades.  Construction affects large swaths of the economy, so these news-bits deal a double bull effect.  

Bear

- China’s HSBC flash PMI for July just hit its lowest level in over 2 years and
is signaling contraction for the first time in over a year.  Speaking
of China being in contraction, didn’t Premier Wen say that inflation was conquered just a month ago?  So what’s this?
 This goes to show you that officials have no idea what they’re up
against.  They are way behind the curve.  More tightening to come.
 Pssst….the Shanghai Composite notched a lower close in 4 of the past 5
days; it looks to be rolling over again.  

- So Europe decides to turn the EFSF into a TARP Clone/Quasi-QE Machine.  They also declare that Greece will undergo a “transitory
default (I’m glad “transitory” isn’t Pee Wee’s word of the month or I’d
be deaf).  Now that the US has stopped QE, here comes the EU.  Now the
American consumer will be held hostage by the Europeans as oil just hit $100 a barrel….again. 

- Sentiment is slowly turning.  If China is contracting, Europe is a hair away, and the US is perilously  close, any negative event at this point will tip the scale.  Confidence can be fickle.  Just look at the follow through from the Eurozone deal rally on Thursday, not very good.    

- The recent good news in housing is…”transitory”.  Purchase applications to buy a home have been flat to down in the past 2 months, while existing home sales “unexpectedly” declined.  As long as the job market remains depressed, don’t count on any rebound in housing anytime soon.  The same can be said for commercial real estate. 

And now, the complete David Kostin chartology.

 

Kickstart 7.23

 

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Sat, 07/23/2011 - 18:34 | 1485641 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I still say that Obama is not going to just sit there and do nothing while unemployment hovers at 9% and watch his poll numbers collapse.

My bet is that the unemployment rate is going to start improving soon, and he wants to take credit for it.

So I'm expecting some type of stimulus or jobs program to be announced any day now.

If we get a deal on the debt ceiling soon, and a new stimulus plan is announced, that could easily send the NY Composite into new breakout territory.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 18:38 | 1485648 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You do realize that stimulus and deficit cuts are mutually exclusive?

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:00 | 1485681 snowball777
snowball777's picture

That would depend on how crazy one is willing to get with "redistribution", que no?

$300B from these oh so profitable corporations -> $100B for the plebes -> $200B deficit reduction.

Heck, write in a loophole for any company that doesn't have a lay-off of more than 1,000 employees in a given year.

I know. I know. Marxist. Blah blah blah...

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:08 | 1485692 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'm afraid, some think gold is always found at the end of the rainbow & Jack and the Beanstalk is a real story.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:13 | 1485701 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Speaking of fairy tales it is fun to see comments around here on The Wizard of Oz.  One detail of that book seems to always get left out of any discussion.  Most people are familiar with the movie and the beautiful yellow brick road that Dorothy, Scarecrow, Tin Man, Lion and Toto wander down.  In the book the yellow brick road (the gold standard) was said to be very uneven and had huge potholes in it.  It was not some smooth and shiny path.  Of course I believe Mr. Baum was a fan of monetary silver.  Those silver slippers allowed Dorothy to make her way down that treacherous yellow brick road. 

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:56 | 1485782 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

yes, brick paving can be uneven, but potholes....no. As for the 'silver' slippers, iirc they were ruby.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:42 | 1485892 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They were silver in the book...and only ruby in the movies; the shylocks in Hollywood made some edits.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 21:06 | 1485944 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

win-win!   Yaaay!

In L. Frank Baum's original novel, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, Dorothy wore Silver Shoes. The movie's creators changed them to ruby to take advantage of the new Technicolor film process.[1]

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 21:14 | 1485968 Boston
Boston's picture

Iirc, the slippers were silver in the book, ruby in the movie.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:40 | 1485890 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I believe Baum was Silverite, but a Populist (as in the party) and not necessarily a fan of Bryan and certainly not McKinley (whom the Tea Potty would've loved...tariffs, 'sound money', industrialist coddling, the works!).

 

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 21:10 | 1485959 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

+i will check w/ the gay caucus and get back to you on the politicz+

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:37 | 1485758 oldman
oldman's picture

Tyler,

In response to you earlier post: about stimulus and deficit being mutually exclusive, I am addressing this to you a second time because I am interested the answer. This happens often, so let me say that, for me, this is not rhetorical; I am an uneducated person and he obvious is not always true in any realm of the mind.

'Not if you cut defense by $800 billion to fund a $400trillion necessary infrastructure program that puts one million people back to work and off of their entitlements.

I don't know why this is so difficult to grasp----help me out Tyler---I'm such a dope with this stuff        thanks    om'

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:10 | 1485761 oldman
oldman's picture

duup

Sun, 07/24/2011 - 03:56 | 1486596 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Not if they tax the uber wealthy, pay down debt and transfer payments to people who will spend every cent they earn. Not that I advocate that exact approach but stimulus and deficit reduction is possible. Money multiplier is greater at lower income levels

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 18:51 | 1485667 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Stimulus? I doubt it, but if you consider the insanity levels in Washington DC, they are insane enough to pull it off.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 18:55 | 1485673 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

A small payroll tax rebate to both employee and employer and both sides can take credit.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:04 | 1485687 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

If the Republicans allow Obama to push through another monstrous stimulus, such as the $787 billion debacle, they are even dumber than I thought.  At this point the Republicans can push for fiscal sanity and squeeze Obama from multiple sides.  Why do the Republicans seem so bad at this game? 

Sun, 07/24/2011 - 12:21 | 1487365 rocker
rocker's picture

Republicans will not vote for or endorse anything Obama wants. In this case they are the party of No.

Once more, they have showed their hand. They are for the uber rich under the disquise of being for all Americans.  

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:26 | 1485864 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Unemployment is not 9% stop watching the Media and start looking at actual numbers. I think it's called the U6 number (Someone correct me)

Sun, 07/24/2011 - 07:52 | 1486777 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

So I'm expecting some type of stimulus or jobs program to be announced any day now

Assuming you are right, we can also expect the results to be the same as the last jobs program, no net jobs created.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:00 | 1485679 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Is all this data adjusted for inflation? How do these profits compare to the returns on gold & silver?

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:06 | 1485691 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

What inflation?  In our magical world there is no inflation.  Just ask any Princeton graduate with a PhD in economics.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:00 | 1485680 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

" The US Housing Starts report posts a surprise gain and its best result since the beginning of the year.  Another indicator, the Buildfax Residential Remodeling Index just turned in its highest reading in the index’s history.  Housing affordability is at its best in 3 decades."

That is some serious bullshit there.  Housing affordability, at least in this area, is still ridiculous.  Prices are way out of line with historical prices.  The demographics of housing are a disaster.  The Baby Boomers didn't cash out soon enough and now will be rushing to the exits.

Housing starts were up mainly on apartment building.  Who can smell a rental glut coming?  I see it here.  The amount of rentals that have been brought online the past 5 years is overwhelming plus they are all "luxury".  There are a whole lot of people trying to get reach doing the same thing.  Good luck with that. 

This report didn't mention that there were 16% cancellations on house purchases last month.  Most of those are related to no financing or appraisals that can't match the prices that fools are still willing to pay.  That is just baffling.  Of course many sellers can't lower the price when an appraisal comes in too low because they don't have the money to bring to the table at closing.  They are broke.

Housing prices going down is good.  The market is healing.  But housing is still completely screwed up.  Who owns the note?  How can underwater "owners" sell?  Where will the first time demand come from?  What a mess.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:23 | 1485722 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Take it from a guy who,

A: Rents trucks

B: Moves peoples household goods

The housing market is so much more fucked than the msm says its a joke.

I've got plenty of jobs that are in "will advise" cause they can't sell and/or can't get a mortgage on the other side.  I hear/read these reports and just get pissed at how warped these lies get about a recovery.  Total and complete con job.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:05 | 1485690 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

1450 only happens with an even weaker dollar - fine, ok, whatever....but that means continued margin compression - with a completely tapped society driving this thing.  In a market already mainlining hopium, its still just a question of he who sells first, wins. 

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:09 | 1485695 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Gold crossed over the S&P 500 and is now ahead of it.  I would guess that S&P at 1,400 means gold at $1,800 or better.  Gold will increase its lead over the S&P.  It is a fun race to watch.  Gold is now the cyclist taking the most steroids in the Tour de France and none of the other cyclists can wrestle away the yellow jersey.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:14 | 1485704 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I wish I had the cash to get more - I've been plowing money into prepper stuff in a large way and man oh man, does that absorb spare benjamins if you get serious.  I just hope for a good scare so I can liberate some cash that responds well to fear.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:29 | 1485870 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I am using Silver as a vehicle to get into Gold. Some of it anyway.

It will take some nerves, patiences and a pair of balls this big. But me thinks it can be done.

It will be easier to move one gold coin than herding 40 silver at this moment.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 21:17 | 1485977 Boston
Boston's picture

God will outperform until it crosses over the Dow.  

When THAT happens, I'll---with absolute certainty---rotate from gold to equities.

I realize that I'll probably be waiting for a while....

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:14 | 1485703 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/white-house-we-thought-we-wer...

Obama rejected a last minute demand from the GOP that the deal include a repeal of the individual mandate in healthcare reform,

 

Win. Should have included a demand to repeal the gun control act of 1934 and 1968, end the wars and a balanced budget amendment.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:19 | 1485717 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Um, about that list, I don't think the Republicans are really for ending the wars.

Both parties love big government, just in different areas. 

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:33 | 1485740 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah I know. Nor are they REALLY for fiscal responsability or REALLY against gun control... I was just talking about real republicans there... which the House and senate have none, except Ron Paul... and maybe Rand Paul... all the others are big government.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:30 | 1485874 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Gun control has nothing to do with it. I voted with feet and told gun control to eff themselves. I see gun control as accurately placing rounds headshot or upper Center mass within the Heart/Spinal and airways area.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:45 | 1485899 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They all love war...Jane Harmon, Diane Feinstein, etc...there are plenty of Dems knee-deep in the MIC trough.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 19:58 | 1485787 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

The Nasdaq and S&P were up almost 4% this week, while the Dow was up roughly 3%. Markets like to climb a wall of worry and that’s exactly what they did.  

really?  and on what fuking planet did this take place?

not fri close to friday close.  unless my #'s are waaaay off

@ sasebo:  Is all this data adjusted for inflation?  dude, these numbers need to be adjusted for reality, b/c  these market index %'s are way overstated.  to the point of being absolute bullshit.  Rational Capitalist Speculator  ???

#'s get adjusted, around closes, but here's what i have

                       7.22          7.15
Dow          12681.20         12479.73
S&P 500      1345.02           1316.15
Nasdaq        2858.83           2789.80

you do the math; i already did so.  the 7/22 #'s are from bloomberg, and they agree v. closely  with my source B (goldSeek: 0.11 on the DOW 7/22 which from B = 12681.31), from which cometh the 7/15 #'s.  maybe the 3's from the 15th were adjusted, later, or something. 

makes a great "wall of worry" story tho, eh?

awesome job cutting & pasting, tyler!   but are these data you re-published for us correct?

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:01 | 1485800 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

- never get tired of fuking.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 21:10 | 1485935 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Like the DXY is down 7% since Jan. Wipes out all of consumer staples & discretionary EPS & Rev growth & 1/2 of totals even with AAPL.

Dow up less than 9% & S%P less than 6% for the year. Net DXY up less than 2% &  down about 1% for the year. And Bernanke keeps printing & panjandra keep spending.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 23:21 | 1486066 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

tyler is drinking too heavily to answer if those %s are skewed^^^. 

i didn't mean about inflation, sasebo.  these are weekly figures so we ass-u-me inflation = 0 for that short time frame, which is bullshit, but inflation is usually a monthly or quarterly or yearly or longer statistic.  if we start needing weekly adjustments~~~/;<D.  it can't happen here.  trust me.  LOL!

Do The Math with slewie:

the Dow increased 681.20 - 479.73 = 201.47/12479.73 = 1.6%  NOT "roughly 3%"

the S&P increased 45.02 - 16.15 = 28.87/1316.15 = 2.2%  NOT "almost 4%"

the NAZ increased 858.83 - 789.80 = 69.03/2789.80 = 2.5% NOT "almost 4%"

now, in fairness to tyler and his source, i did check doug noland's summary  [PrudentBear], but i have no idea where he gets his figures. (Paste)

For the week, the S&P500 jumped 2.2% (up 6.9% y-t-d), and the Dow gained 1.6% (up 9.5%).  The Banks rallied 3.3% (down 8.4%), and the Broker/Dealers surged 6.6% (down 10.1%).  The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals inched up 0.2% (up 2.8%), and the Transports rose 1.6% (up 6.3%).  The Morgan Stanley Consumer index was little changed (up 2.0%), while the Utilities gained 1.5% (up 7.3%).  The S&P 400 Mid-Caps increased 1.6% (up 9.3%), and the small cap Russell 2000 gained 1.6% (up 7.4%).  The Nasdaq100 jumped 3.1% (up 9.5%)

stuff happens in spreadsheets like excel where you cue or drag the wrong column or date into a  % formula.

now, we have three figures for the NAZ weekly percentage gain!  L0L!

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