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Weekly Chartology And Rainbows And Unicorns From Goldman
Goldman now anticipates an S&P peak of 1,300 intrayear which is somehow equivalent to a 15x EPS. Of course, that makes sense if one believes Goldman's 2010 S&P EPS of $86 ex provisions and writedowns. Somewhere David Rosenberg is vomiting loudly.
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"Daddy, what is the appropriate P/E multiple for the S&P 500?"
"Why, son, it's whatever the Gov, ahhh, Goldman Sachs, says it should be!"
Believe it, conceive it, achieve it.
Crush anyone who fights it with make believe money.
This will totally work.
Might be a good tell. Like $200/oil call. Course too scared to short anything with the fed's helicopter doing what it does best.
Somewhere David Rosenberg is vomiting loudly.
lmao....
LMAO too.
Not if but when. Rosenberg is a stud.
A 13.7 multiple for the S&P at year end makes sense.
Earnings tumble, prices tumble even more. Everything lines up.
lmao.
SELL ALL RIPS FROM HERE ON OUT.
Yep. I think very good chance we are (finally) at the top.
SPX 1145 = 61.8% from the secondary high.
This is where we stopped in April 1930. Re-run would be quite appropriate for the second great depression.
analagous to the Move Your Money campaign by Arianna Huffington and Chris Whalen's firm, maybe the ZH community should start a "sell your stocks before you get reamed again" campaign for the little guys out there.
Amen deadhead. Sadly, most little guys have their "stock" investments tied to 401K's, mutual funds, and IRAs and have no clue just how bad those fund managers, by and large, ream them each quarter. Until everyone flees to safety, the message will not be received. The ZH blog has been warning, writing and advising people about HFT since day one but few understood the message of market manipulation outside of the group that reads and posts here on a regular basis. When the day arrives that the sheeple comprehend that 40-60% of the daily volume is simply computers trading with computers between the houses and no real investment initiatives or trading is happening as the world has lost faith in our markets, that day will mark the end of a lot of the games being played. Until then, they will continue to rape the average investor every chance they get.
I can't find it now, but today I read a headline that said the campaign wasn't working. I didn't read the article so I don't know how accurate it might be. I wish someone other than HP would have started this. There are many who hate her with a passion and would never consider reading it. Too bad, she's right on this one.
I wish someone other than HP would have started this. There are many who hate her with a passion
The interesting thing about this is that HuffPo is ground zero for the House of Obama worshippers, no question about it. They now understand that their guy is just another sock puppet for the wall street gang and they are very, very pissed; Barry and Rahm know this very well and are concerned about it deeply. So far, Obama has done a little jawboning but his group has seen through that and realize he is blowing smoke and the wall streeters are still running the show. The day is coming soon where Barry and Rahm have to make a decision between the wall streeters and their base....
As to the Move Your Money campaign, the HuffPo folks are moving their accounts (i've no idea of the number, but the fact that the campaign is getting more and more ink scares bankers big time i.e. core deposits, core customers, etc) and certainly their anger, as well as those of us on the other side who are upset about the wall st/Fed complex, is growing and has been pretty high since post lehman, TARP initiation days.
HuffPo is no longer an Obama cheerleader site. The so-called "progressives" think that Obama has shown that he's not really a lefty. He's shown that for a long time, at least since his refusal to cater to the left as editor of Harvard Law Review. It's too bad that he's looking like a corporatist, though, selling out to big Pharma, and his lefty side is selling out to big labor. The oligarchy is pretty well entrenched, my friends.
Didn't GS anticipate a much lower end of year close to 2009??
As far as I'm concerned anything with GoldmanSachs on the letterhead is complete trash and is about as believable as its disclaimers.
GoldmanSachs is:
a) an investment bank
b) a commercial bank that makes loans to the general public
c) a Cayman Islands based hedge fund that has an effective U.S. income tax rate of 1%
Anyone?
1060
+100000000 Dead Head
Racer,
I'm not 100% sure, but I seem to recall GS saying 1200 2010 year end for S & P.
DavidC
I have been shorting since November maintaining a 50L/50S bias. Am moving to a 0L/100S bias by the end of the year !!
Thanks BB & GS !!
Rainbows and unicorns...yippee!
Just wait for the lions and tigers and BEARS.
let's see......09 performance GS v ZH. Hmmm....I listened to ZH in 09 and my ass is currently in the palm of my hand....now let's see, do I have any $ left to vote the GS way in 10?
Where does it say ZH provides investment advice? I thought it just provided information and a healthy supply of truthiness. Truth and the behaviors of the markets, especially behaviors in the massively distorting force fields of interference and self-direction by the government-corporate elite combine, are inapposite.
isn't that what this is all (mostly) about?....figure out where it's going, stake your claim then buy or sell when everyone else shows up? a couple of manifesto bullets seem to position The Zero as a purveyor of unique and valuable info for the pro (not me). Of course it's not advice ;) ;).
I think people read what they want to. I know I gravitate toward the inflationist and gold articles, but I wouldn't blame ZH just because I chose to act on the information I believed to be more correct.
wacky. ZH does not give investment advice. It is possible that a recommendation was made in very early 09 when the blog was in its infancy and there were only a couple of pinheads like me around. Since then, i've yet to see any investment advice and I have read over 99% of the posts on this site.
dh- in the truest since of the phrase, 'give investment advice', I agree. I do get that, among other things, The Zero is attempting to paint a 'truer' perspective of our (shared) economic reality, regardless of motivation (I am trending suspicious). As Ned instructs me, behavior (GS) and truth (The Zero) are not one. But if behavior is the actual outcome, is it not the truth? Is time the only arbiter of the two? It seems, then, as a novice 'investor' (dope w/no hope), I should try to divine only behavior, truth be damned?
But if behavior is the actual outcome, is it not the truth?
Might be a bit more philosophy than my pay grade. That said, in a role of a novice investor, or an experienced one for that matter, the truth has little to nothing to do with movements of markets.
what does, then?
what does, then?
nobody on earth has ever figured out that answer completely but they try every single day to find it.
From everything I have heard on ZH these past months, it is clear that you no longer INVEST in the stock market. You GAMBLE in the stock market.
Excess of meats bringeth sickness.
Why not S&P 2000, whats the difference at this point.
From "Wargames":
And this post is probably more profound than you can imagine at this point. ;)
In line with your comment,
Kids spend a lot of time online finding the "cheats" for the various videogames they play. One could just play and discover, couldn't they? But then, why do they put "cheats" out there to be found?
I think Peter Beagle wrote that all the Unicorns were driven into the Sea.
these phucking guys just don't quit the equity ponzi scheme.
Let's all walk to the light. It won't hurt as long as you don't think.
NPR is reporting that the 2.3 billion Green Energy stimulus announced this afternoon will create 17,000 new jobs, is my math correct to say this is $135,294.11 per job?
That would be correct according to Kudlow, who beat it to death last night on his show. Are you saying that is high, low, are about right? Or are you making any kind of judgment call at all? Seems to me that is about the average gubmint employee pay rate according to the latest stats. How much would be an acceptable expenditure to create a job? Some think that $12.50 is too much. Quoting a number like $135,294.11 out of context leads the lumpenproletariat to think that all the money is going into some employee's pocket -- period. It does not take into consideration any collateral expenditures or other financial ramifications. Well, anyhow, I'm just sayin' it ain't that simple.
That would be correct according to Kudlow, who beat it to death last night on his show. Are you saying that is high, low, are about right? Or are you making any kind of judgment call at all? Seems to me that is about the average gubmint employee pay rate according to the latest stats. How much would be an acceptable expenditure to create a job? Some think that $12.50 is too much. Quoting a number like $135,294.11 out of context leads the lumpenproletariat to think that all the money is going into some employee's pocket -- period. It does not take into consideration any collateral expenditures or other financial ramifications. Well, anyhow, I'm just sayin' it ain't that simple.
Weird re-post of the same thing -- is that what happens when not logged-in?
Strange....
Cool, may I have one please?
When the Vampire Squid speaks, I think it behooves us to listen!
"...and they say that black is really white/ the moon is just the sun at night/ and when you walk in golden halls, you get to keep the gold that falls/ its heavan and hell, oh well. Fool, fool, fool." --Black Sabbath
Uh, last I checked S&P500 paid >2% divs every year for the last ten. And cash on company balance shts is at all-time highs. Where's the ponzi scheme?
Q4 and Q1 earnings will (further) show that last year's crisis losses are no longer relevant. EPS will continue to surprise to the upside (as it has since Q1 2009, despite Rosenberg's lie -- EPS estimates were as low as $40 for 09 in early 09... real #s beat by ~50%).
So when you see $90/shr in EPS for SP500 earnings... dont be surprised to see 1400 year-end. Cash divs will be $40 in 2011. Good luck with the short trade... when do you figure y'all will admit the mistake? Another 50%?
I guess you will be buying all the dips, though based on your forecast of $90/share, I would think that dips would be impossible.
I'll admit my short trade mistake at 1250 SPX in early 2010.....but will continue to hold it "just in case".
Anonymous, you lying wall street sack
of shit. Give them the GAAP earnings
estimate...not your fantasy operating
earnings estimate that makes the
nosebleed P/Es appear lower so you can
continue to sell overpriced stock to
Joe Sixpack.
Your $90 estimate goes below $60 on a
GAAP basis...and I'm being very kind since
we all know the banks don't even report
GAAP earnings any more.
But companies writing down "Goodwill" because of 1-time losses are meaningless events (or silly book value writedowns... that today we already know should be "write-ups". But companies never want to take write-ups... cuz then they pay taxes.)
Like I said -- LOOK AT DIVENDENDS. Cash divs are actually paid every year btw 2-3%. If we think about it very simply and say that represents ~50% of the cashflow/value. Then we have an equity market average ~5-6% positive cash flow. Hard to call that a ponzi scheme? Did divs grow from 99 to 09? No. Could they grow from 09 to 19? Yes... maybe by alot!
GAAP earnings understate positive cashflow of companies in many ways. Goodwill is #1. Taxes is #2 (companies dont actually pay GAAP book tax rates). Options expensing is #3 (double counted in dilution and comp expense).
Dont let isolated / concentrated problems confuse you. Did we have a massive problem in banking and real estate? Yes. Did the CEOs, regulators and speculators (inc regular citizens... royally f it up? Yes.
But did AAPL, MSFT, WMT, PFE, PG, KO... ever post a losing Q? And are lots of small companies growing with good products and solid mgmt? Yes. Will some of these companies be 5x more valuable in 10 years? Yes.
EPS consistently is overestimated INTO the downturn, and underestimate INTO the recovery. What part of that cycle are we in today?
Since we missed last year's S&P estimate
by a country mile, you should know what
part of the cycle we're in.
Remember Steve Martin's "Let's Get Small"?
We're still getting smaller, just as
Gross and Rosie avow. A classic P/E
compression ratio countertrend rally in a
secular bear market. Why do you think all
the DUMB GUY strategists are the ones
doing the tub thumping? A 2% dividend
yield is el-stinko, historically.
For the "new normal" of weak consumer
spending and low GDP, the dividend rate
should be 4% and the P/E ratio
below 10. And it will be, just like it
was in the 30's, 40's and 50's, when
the only reason to own stocks was because
they paid you to own them. $60 of GAAP
earnings is worth S&P 600.
Wow. Your points on GAAP are so incredibly fucking wrong I don't even know where to start. I just cant...where did you...yahoo finance? Jim Cramer books?
I just dont have the time to poke holes in what you think. Not that it would change the way you think, so I'm not even going to bother pissing in the wind.
Good luck, and may god have mercy on your ignorant soul.
You just don't know what "no growth" does
to P/E ratios, son. No growth, low growth
was apparently way before your time.
Ever hear Ward Cleaver bragging about
making a killing in the stock market?
LOL
without FASB 157 mark to menagerie, bank earnings and corresponding p/e ratios would be more negative than some of the captcha math zh torments me with.
MTM was a huge mistake. It makes no sense for illiquid asset and since its repeal all financials have recovered. It was a big cause of the move down (but also the move UP!). Everything has been marked UP as HY and mortgage loans are up 50-100% since the crisis 1-yr ago.
Why do you love the Yo-Yo? Seems silly.
Plus, the Yo-Yo is on the way UP now. Just wait, with 1-more step in economic improvement all the financials will start showing massive declines in credit losses (and they already have enormous reserves).
Soylent Green Sharts is people.
Grab your bagpipe and protest.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?m=te&bn=87812&tid=594125&mid=-1&tof=25&rt=2&frt=2&off=1#-1
Grab your bagpipe and protest!
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?m=te&bn=87812&tid=594125&mid=-1&tof=25&rt=2&frt=2&off=1#-1
Shorting this market is lethal....Benocchio is all in. Do you understand what that means? He - is - all - in. Do no get in the way. I want to short financials, but then Benny decides to give a carte blanche to Fannie and Freddie on fing christmas eve...how do you fight a system like that= Yoou don't.
Buy puts and stay in cash and some gold and gold stocks, maybe some actual decent value stocks like J&J and Nestle. Or stay long and look smart for a while and then curl up crying when this bitch collapses in 2H.
The squid's talking out of both sides of its
orifices now. Hatzius has an economic forecast sliding to 1% GDP by 4th quarter, so I guess the game here is to
drive nosebleed S&P 1150 to uber-nosebleed S&P 1300
before the recovery CON concludes. Never enough
for any of these guys....they ALWAYS have reasons for
you to buy. Might be worth a re-watch of Tin Men with
Danny Devito and Richard Dreyfuss as aluminum siding
salesmen in the 1960's. Nice parallel with Wall Street...
they'll do anything for a sale.
we're phucked
At some point the big fat cats will have to signal their cronies that it's time to SELL, SELL, SELL to the bagholders.
Goldman Sachs:
Right on 99% of its trading days and 45% of its trading calls.
If Goldman says 13,000, then 13,000 it will be! Of course they are NOT going to tell you when the next crash will be. Possiblely October? A wave of ARM mortgages defaulting? Freddie and Fannie may going under? What will be the scapegoat this time around?
With the FED getting a 2 year window to comply and Freddie and Fannie Mae getting infinite funding for a couple of years, it is looking more and more like the shit is going to hit the fan in 2012. Everyone is trying to buy a couple years.
What if Obama was choosen to be President by the elitists, because they already knew America was headed for a collaspe, so why not have a black President to blame it on. Obama will be blamed for America's collaspe when just inherited the problem.
ARM mortgages reset to 3%... dont be an idiot.
and the recasts?
on the resets, there just may be another item or two impacting default rates irrespective of interest rates
http://www.goldmansachs666.com
Goldman FU