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Weekly Chartology, Or How To BS About "Strong Micro" When The Economy Is Below Stall Speed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Never before has the job of Goldman's equity markets strategist been so difficult: on one hand he has to deal with an economy that is openly imploding after a readjustment of Q2 GDP to below subspeed, a drop in Q3 growth from his economic team as of last night to 2.5%, and a growth hockeystick that nobody (except for Joe LaVorgna of course) believes in any more. On the other he has to get paid for spreading propaganda to the firm's whale accounts even as GS is openly selling into any risk rally (Abacus deja vu). And while the latest weekly chartology from David Kostin is already very much outdated, after Jan Hatzius was forced to admit in his latest Friday night bomb installment that our view on the economy (i.e., absent stimulus = game over) is correct, he does make pretty charts. So ignore all the forecasts as they are 100% wrong as usual and focus on the pretty breakdowns of what has already happened. If nothing else, Goldman proves that billions in taxpayer bailout funds and secret Short Term OMO access can sure buy a damn good WP/Graphics department.

The key points from this week's kickstart:

Macro events have overshadowed the start to 2Q 2011 earnings season.

Investor dialogue focused on European sovereign credit risk and the ongoing political and financial debates over various proposals to solve the crisis. Identical issues apply to the US. The August 2nd deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling is fast approaching and domestic political discord rivals that of continental Europe. Credit rating agencies responded by announcing the increased likelihood of a near-term downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The impact of policy tightening in key emerging economies was another macro risk frequently raised by fund managers. Our year-end 2011 S&P 500 target remains 1450 (+10%) based on strong corporate profit fundamentals and undemanding valuation. 61% of firms will report earnings this month which should affirm our view and support higher equity prices.

Accelerating macro risks in both US and Europe pushed the S&P 500 down 3% this week.

In the US an impasse in debt ceiling negotiations led to warnings from Moody’s that “there is a small but rising risk of a short- lived default” and risk to the Aaa credit rating, while Standard & Poor’s placed US federal government debt on credit watch for possible downgrade and assigned a one in two probability that it would lower the rating to AA from AAA in the next 90 days. Our Washington analyst believes politicians are coalescing around a $1.7 trillion deficit reduction package. In Europe, concern about the Greek support package has spilled over to Italy where credit spreads rose to post-EU highs.

Next week 109 companies (36% of S&P 500 market cap) will report 2Q earnings.

More than half of Information Technology market cap reports next week, including AAPL, IBM and MSFT, and 45% of Industrials is scheduled to release earnings, including GE, UPS, CAT and MMM. Please see pages 5-7 for next week’s earnings calendar including KO, BAC, JNJ, T, MDC and F.

Micro fundamentals remain strong.

Despite weak 1Q GDP growth, ROE expanded for the sixth straight quarter and rose for 58% of S&P 500 firms representing 64% of index market cap. This week we published the third in a series of reports on the Anatomy of ROE at the S&P 500 index (Part I), sector (Part II) and stock (Part III) levels. Part III updated the progress of index and sector ROE, examined the P/B expansion pattern during ROE cycles, and back-tested the investment performance of ROE strategies at the stock level.

Full presentation:

 

Weekly Kickstart

 

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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 11:42 | 1462030 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

junk me, BiCheZ!

i need a kickstart!

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 11:46 | 1462037 Hulk
Hulk's picture

So let it be written, so let it be done!

Got Gold???

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:44 | 1462088 eureka
eureka's picture

Got Gold?

Let's see:  2% US 2011/GDP -10% consumer price inflation-20% IRS revenue decline = ...?

Got Gold - probably a good idea.

Oh, and then there's the 10%/PA real estate/asset deflation...

Quick, gold, gold, gold...

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 15:07 | 1462289 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Wouldn't that be more aptly titled "US Weekly Bitch Slap"?

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 11:44 | 1462033 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The new GOP ``plan``... total joke. They aim to vote on this next week. If this is their ``plan``... a downgrade is coming.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-debt-talks-20110716...

a so-called cut-cap-and-balance bill, which would order $111 billion in cuts in federal programs for 2012

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:00 | 1462048 CH1
CH1's picture

In the end, they cave. That's what they do. Always have, always will.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:22 | 1462068 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

No. They make you believe they cave. Reality: they do want way more stimulus to gorge themselves on and to get rewarded by their paymasters for mission accomplished

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:48 | 1462099 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Relentlessly true CE.
Smoke and mirrors every inch of the way. For hundreds if not thousands of years. Nicea? hmmmmmm, Venice? Hmmmmmmmm.... Versailles? Yep.

Now the shit is three feet deep and solid on everything visible and most things invisible too.

Did Admiral Byrd go into the north pole? Is the bible literal or figurative?

Seriously folks..... such big things to ponder, fecund, full trapped light.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/experiential-spirituality-exi...

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:32 | 1462139 eureka
eureka's picture

If Boner Cries & TeaPartiers Curse Debt Ceiling Will Stop Rising... No?

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:24 | 1462071 Rainman
Rainman's picture

If there's a downgrade, Meredith Whitney's muni prediction may come true...and Gross' UST shorts to boot.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-15/states-can-ill-afford-u-s-debt-...

 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:03 | 1462179 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

How Dare You???

 

Meredith is an Al Qaeda Plant! she is a terrorist sent here to undermine the People Confidence in the Free Markets!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/14/us-markets-municipals-idUSTRE70D3WC20110114

http://www.intrustadvisors.com/2011/03/municipal-bonds-dead-money-or-worse-yet-the-next-bailout/

http://www.municipalbonds.com/

 

and Bill Gross is a Chinese Plant! he is here to undermine the economy as a whole so that China can Continue to pick up cheap Properties across the Nation!

 

http://www.rense.com/general85/give.htm ok that was a funny but.. these days who knows who is telling the truth, half truth or part truth! it damn sure aint CNBC or CNN!

lets try a more normal view from a more widely accpeted news source (Google picked the one above first! maybe they are trying to tell me I am a crazy? with my idea that China's buying huge amounts or Property in the U.S.? Undermine the searcher? of information?) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29162036/ns/business-personal_finance/t/chinese-finding-us-real-estate-bargain/

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 11:55 | 1462035 malikai
malikai's picture

Bah. Goldman's getting robbed. I make better charts than these with a perl scripts.

Also, the country has been in a 'deep stall' since 2007.

A deep stall is charachterized as an unrecoverable stall. No amount of additional power(stimulus) can get you out of a deep stall. Futhermore, permanent loss of aileron(government control) and elevator(business control) are characteristic of a deep stall. The end state of a deep stall is the aircraft(economy) digging a hole in the ground and filling it up with fuel, blood, and various pieces of the aircraft structure.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:12 | 1462059 Marco
Marco's picture

Fuel ... if only.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:20 | 1462066 malikai
malikai's picture

Um.. QE lolbucks == fuel. :)

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:22 | 1462069 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"auguring in"  (chuck yeager)

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:36 | 1462083 malikai
malikai's picture

It's the only chance I have of applying my very expensive aviation education towards economic analogies.

I can also describe our crisis in IP networking using the LFN (long fat network) if that is more comfortable. :)

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:36 | 1462144 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i can understand the former.

does the latter result in electrocution?   as a luddite, please consider me online amish.  i've heard stories about electrical stuff.  if it's like lightning coming down the chimney, it sounds exciting!

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:51 | 1462168 malikai
malikai's picture

No, in the latter, latency-sensitive network communications deteriorate. It's a very distant abstraction that could only loosely be applied. I'm having an 'abstraction day', methinks..

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:52 | 1462103 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Well, speaking of aircraft, the case is usually as stated by you.

Unless it crashes in a farm in Pennsylvania. In which case, all that "stuff" is dimensionall teleported and all you are left is with a wee hole in the ground.

Oh wait, the magnificient Pentalawn is similar in it's effects. It swallows without a trace (and nary a skid mark), tons of debries belonging to huge jets and then, ends up lookng UNTOUCHED. Also, strangely enough, it shrinks the turbines of giant airplanes.

So funny, all these things eh?

As for the topic at hand...

Enough said, eh?

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/the-practice-of-detachment/

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:07 | 1462135 malikai
malikai's picture

The debris patterns at the Pentagon and in Pennsylvania are in fact supportive of the official events. A high speed crash will turn the fuselage and most components of the heaviest of heavies into confetti.

After a crash like that, the largest pieces of remains are the usually the wing roots, landing gear, and HP compressor/turbine stage.

A turbofan engine is nothing like an automobile engine. It is built to be lightweight, running at temperatures that would melt an automobile engine, and at speeds that would blow up an automobile engine. If you interrupt a turbofan engine even at idle, expect it to make a real mess of itself. Interrupt it at full power by smashing it into the ground at 450MPH, consider yourself lucky to find recognizable peices of it.

Heavy peices of the aircraft will bury deeply into the ground while the remaining lighter portions will be scattered loosely throughout the area. This is consistent with the official story. Have a look at the pictures or NTSB reports of unsuspicious accidents. A similar class of accident is the 'gaveyard spiral', where a pilot is disoriented and usually ends up crashing at high speed mid angle. Debris patterns and remains are almost exactly the same.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:52 | 1462263 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Whoops, different belief system Malikai, but all good.
To each his own, I'll stick with mine (own that is).

ORi

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 17:40 | 1462572 malikai
malikai's picture

There should never be a belief system involved with a technical problem. There is only a methodology for analysing facts. Application of a belief system to a technical problem gives results like what we see with global warming where you have two camps entrenched in their own belief systems yielding seperate outcomes and fighting over minutae.

We should never believe. We should know or not know. And we should always question until we know by proof of fact.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 11:57 | 1462046 Teapot_Dome
Teapot_Dome's picture

Uber micro!

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:11 | 1462058 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Investor dialogue focused on European sovereign credit risk and the ongoing political and financial debates over various proposals to solve the crisis.

solve the crisis?  solve the crisis?  me!  me!  i have an idea!
ok---the dead guy here, w/ the big ears.  what's that smell?

slewie:  Cannabis For Men, sir! 

is that your propsal to solve the crisis?

no, hahaha.  that mighta prevented it, tho.  i think we need sackcloth and ashes at this point.   

what?

sackcloth & ashes.  we need to come to terms with the crying need to begin to think in  new ways. renewal of the mind and heart stuff. 

about what?

bankster and corporate control of our political processes and the Treasury.  ours. 

are you kidding?

nope!  sackcloth & ashes: it's pretty good for de-lousing!  parasites hate it worse than we do!

will it work on these damned lamprey eels? 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:18 | 1462064 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

This has been a classic "Wall of Worry" climb.

Just think of all the horrific news the market has been able to shuck off the last 2 1/2 years, the strength of the market has been simply astounding.

I just wonder what is going to happen when things actually start improving, borrowing needs from corporations start creeping up, gradually pushing up interest rates, and then forcing the "safe haven" bond money back into equities?

And what happens if the public, who will finally become disenchanted with real estate, finally figure out that stocks are a safer, more liquid place to put your money?  What happens if inflows to mutual funds starts accelerating?

What is going to happen when so many companies have sandbagged their guidance and expectations are so low, that when the real numbers are reported and end up being better than expected?

And the gains in consumer growth stocks in the face of such horrid unemployment and world record low consumer confidence has been eye-popping.  What happens when consumer confidence and employment improves?

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:23 | 1462070 malikai
malikai's picture

How much are tickets to the economic Nirvana you speak of? I'd like 3 first class tickets for my family, please.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:48 | 1462098 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

For the first time I have to agree that RoboObamo's comments seem somewhat ridiculous.

Exactly where can I purchase all the hopium you've been getting high on.

Are you smoking it, shooting it, or snorting it. What type of delivery system is able to blast you to unimaginable lofty heights?

Although RoboObamo's sentiments sound glorious, exactly how does this begin to elimante The Greatest Debt Depression this country has ever seen.

Sorry, the great depression of 1929 might have been the first, but this is The Greatest Depression.

RoboObamo's comments might benefit day traders, but have no affect on J6P living off food stamps and scrambling to pay his rent, or fill his gas tank to get to work.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:58 | 1462108 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Latest stats show almost 75% of stock market trading volume is 'program trading'. ie HFT bots trading with each other, benefitting nobody, giving the illusion of actual demand. 

Shockingly, only about 10% of stocks are held longer than a day. That's all that remains of 'investors'. The remainder are all day trading accounts which will flow either way the wind blows. 

Very precarious and super Fed correlated. Nothing to do with fundamentals or even technicals anymore

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:36 | 1462145 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

Wall Street is like a smack whore...a wild, beautiful, smack

whore....spinning round and round...dancing, laughing, singing

in the rain, thinking she's on top of the world, not knowing

she's dying even if you show her the marks.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:24 | 1462072 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Weak

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:42 | 1462090 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is amazing that because of the money printing, lack of hiring,the increase in firing eg:(Cisco,10,000+) and cheap financing for corporations that they have been able to report really good earnings the last 2+ years.

Just imagine what will happen as QE, for now is gone. The squids and leeches that are holding up this market will not have phony dollars to hold it up anymore. They will have to use their money. Not  a pretty picture.

What will happen as the economy continues to deteriorate, more jobs are lost and the consumer continues to try and pay down debt, save and Not spend.

As real estate values continue to plummet, what will happen when profits start to deteriorate and the last bastion of wealth for the middle class, stocks, start to leak in earnest. There will be a flood of redemptions as those who have at least some wealth left move to cash to save what little they have left.

And what happens as consumer confidence and employment continue their downward path for most of America, no pay raises and reductions in benefits.

If you work for a state or city govt. this is just the beginning. What happens when states cannot fund pensions, retirement accounts and health care accounts. The people will have to accept less, pay more and spend even less.

What will happen when our major trading partners look at our balance sheet and say enough is enough. That will push up interest rates and make paying the debt harder. Then that will push up interest rates even more. A catch 22. Those holding bonds will suffer. Then money will go into gold, silver as stocks continue to move lower, the country gets closer to bankruptcy along with Europe, the middle class continues to evaporate and the wealthy become even richer. That is the picture I see.

Yes.... what happens Then?? And it is Now!

 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:02 | 1462113 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Long dog food and squirrel guns. 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:48 | 1462095 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture
by RobotTrader
on Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:18
#1462064

 

This has been a classic "Wall of Worry" climb.

Just think of all the horrific news the market has been able to shuck off the last 2 1/2 years, the strength of the market has been simply astounding

You are pullin' my crank, right? Seriously - I cannot believe that even you are that fucking stoopid. To answer all your douche "what happens if" queries: what's gonna happen when Ben stops QE? and what's gonna happen IF all your rosy bullshit doesn't happen.... and what if the assumptions upon which your premise rests are wrong? Or do you even have a clue what you assume?

 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 19:15 | 1462804 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

 The "markets" didnt climb jackshit. The only thing that climbed was the Feds balance sheet desperately trying to supress other asset classes so that stocks would stay jacked up.

 The whole "wall of worry" is BS anyway.  After the crash of 29, I bet there was a wall of worry then that never got climbed.

   Why would Ben have started QE2 instead of just letting the market climb that wall of worry?

 The Fed injecting billions every other day indirectly into stocks by trashing bonds is a much more logical cause for the rally than any old stock market adage that dosent hold water anyway.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:03 | 1462115 kito
kito's picture

in the short term, robo is right. 

consumers improving their card payment history

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-profits-up-as-card-apf-2205820787.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:10 | 1462122 Marco
Marco's picture

I don't think it will work unless the government maintains it's role in the game as a deficit spender. The twin deficits are long term unsustainable, but since we've managed since Nixon it could conceivably keep working for quite a while yet ... without the budget deficit twin though I just don't see it working.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:17 | 1462128 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

holy shit, RT!  it's, like, 10 am,  and you're more fuked up than i am!  are you getting the morning fog along the coast down there, too?  who knows what kinda becquerels be there? 

you know, you have been fairly realistic, following the $2 tril in the paper markets, over this time 

your questions aren't too bad, & maybe you'll feel better after you make a FED deposit in the Throne Room

borrowing needs are freaking astro-nomical!  so much insolvency, so little fiat!  there are some good businesses;  we still have an econom and if it goes down a little, most of us won't notice, immediately, at least.  but the people, companies, and goobermints on the debt wheel w/ the banksters are gonna have a squeeze b/c the do-re-mi for the vig ain't comin in

now, they will loan us the USD to get thru this to the happy happy joy joy about which you fantasize so adroitly, but they want us to hypothecate granny's electric scooter and promise to just start giving them everything we own if we don't do the right thing, and cut back on our expectations and realities, so we can pay them

btw, you put "real estate" & "liquid" in the same sentence, there.  that was something wasn't it?  the greenspan version of Big Brother's Casino

by the time the debt-ponzi pyramid wouldn't support another zero, all the cops and judges were in on the game, too.  the DA kept running out to his van, pushing a wheelbarrow

still is

now, i won't argue with you that they might generate another round of decent numbers

but you shld know better than to call them real,  you wascawy wabbit

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:26 | 1462076 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There is no micro. All is correlated to the Fed. It's either Ponzi on or duck and cover

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:42 | 1462091 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Exactly my thoughts CE. Micro is stable?

I guess these folks don't interact much with main street. They send their interns for coffee.

ORI

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:54 | 1462105 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Exactly ORI.  That dichotomy is part of what I'm referring to when I say Biflation. There's a branch of the US and global economy that's fully Fed correlated, for better for worse till death us do part. That branch has prospered during this depression. The other branch has not only languished but is in a state of continuous decline, reflected in such things as housing prices, jobs, consumer confidence and small biz confidence. Unfortunately there's a reverse correlation for that branch : the side effects of reckless monetary expansion are accelerating the Micro decline. 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:59 | 1462276 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Well said CE.

Middle class sweat and lower class blood. The only two liquids that flow up-wards in defiance of gravity.

ORI

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:35 | 1462081 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Greed is good, remember? Given that reality, who in DC is ever gonna vote against more stimulus and spending? Nobody. They'll make a show of pretending to be scandalized, and shocked...shocked to find that deficits are being run. Nobody will be so pure of heart and mind. Yes, the party whips will get a few tokens to vote nay just to keep up appearances and the public fooled. But the ultimate Ponzi will roll on, steam rolling the middle class into the road on it's way. 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 12:45 | 1462094 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Peak Macro and the rise of Micro

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:25 | 1462133 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

A prudent pilot would lower the nose and get some energy back. But noooo! We have Suicidal Shalom at the controls. So he keeps pulling back on the stick. Hey, it looks good. The nose is up. Don't worry about the altimeter unwinding. You don't need to look at that. "But Capt. Shalom, the ground is getting closer." Forget about it. Look, the nose is pointed up. That's all you need to know. Relax, watch CNBC. Don't worry so much. Stop reading that ZH junk. Its just a stupid conspiracy. "Why are you putting on that parachute, Capt?" Capt?..... 

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 13:39 | 1462149 malikai
malikai's picture

We were ignoring the stick shaker in 2006. We entered the deep stall in 2007. Benocide is just pretending that nose-up == climb. Never mind the engines at full throttle and the rapid decline in airspeed and altitude. Just look at that beautiful 35 degree attitude.

Sat, 07/16/2011 - 14:28 | 1462216 red2893
red2893's picture

i can't believe this!

 

http://theopeningrange.blogspot.com/

Sun, 07/17/2011 - 20:37 | 1465035 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..a growth hockeystick that nobody (except for Joe LaVorgna of course) believes in any more.."

Flip it pointing down... there fixed it for ya Goldmans

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