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Weekly Chartology x2
David Kostin just does not give up: the seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators, A. Joseph Cohen of A. Joseph Cohens is a ruthless long-only pitching machine, and will not relent until ever last single human being is fully invested (and on margin) in the raging bull market. In today's "weekly kickstart" piece, in which he notes that the current investment debate fulcrum is the "tug of war" between a strong micro and weak macro. That the former is just a lagging indicator of the latter, and that now that the stimulus effects are over, and that the micro is about to roll over, for some reason does not cross the economist's mind. In addition, we present another pitchbook by Goldman, "Where to Invest Now- the path to 1250" in which his conclusion is that it is irrelevant where one invests as long as one invests. Biased commentary aside, some pretty charts.
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I can't read this garbage anymore, Tyler. I guess you summed it up well. No analysis of what is going to happen now that the micro is about to roll over.
Tyler, we need the micro to roll over and realize deflation so that prices revert to market levels. Bernanke be damned. I won't say anything bad about John Maynard Keynes because I think that governments are misusing his ideas. This isn't Keynesian economics. This is Keynesian economics on crack. Keynes never contemplated use of his ideas by crack head economists from Princeton in charge of the worlds largest printing press. You know what, Keynes talked about years with government surplus. Keynes never contemplated serial deficit government spending. (Guess he was just naive.)
We need people to stop buying stocks. For the sake of God and country people, stop buying stocks. If you must, please short them so that we can get this darned deflation thing over with. The longer stocks stay propped up, the longer the illusion of prosperity and the continuation of false premises such as "stocks are a leading economic indicator". What a crock of crap. Leading economic indicator. Maybe back when markets were in fact free. Now that they are nothing more than a tool to be manipulated by the Federal Reserve Bank, they are a leading economic indicator of FRB fraud.
Long live Zero Hedge. Long live freedom of exchange of ideas. Long live the right to expose institutional fraud. I don't want to live in Japan, Tyler. If I did, I'd move there.
Aw, go ahead -- it is strongly encouraged!
Therein lies the problem my brother. The algo's have been trained to punish those that short. There is no downside in this market only an upside. Short it if you must, but if your short game persists for more than a day or two make sure to have a first-aid kit handy because you know what is in store for you.
There are plenty of other investment vehicles. This exchange is without a doubt wholly manipulated. Rigged to steal your speculative capital if you defy the master game plan. We all know that.
The worst thing to do is to waste your time and energy waiting for it to roll over. Poor Tyler has been doing that since Mar. 9, 2009. I hope it has only been in his collective writing and not actual positions or the dudes are as broke as Reggie Milton.
You're probably right. Serial shorting is stupid when the game is rigged. But, it is a Ponzi scheme and all Ponzi schemes fail.
If you participate in a Ponzi scheme, seems to me you need more than a first-aid kit on hand when it is time to settle all accounts. Maybe some vasoline and a chastity belt for men to cushion and protect oneself from what is in store.
What is a poor man to do?
Keynes wasn't even a real economist; he was a shill who provided a half assed and illogical "justification" for politically popular nonsense politicians were already doing. He thought that slowdowns in "aggregate demand" caused a recession; such a slowdown of course being caused by "animal spirits". Now of course the best way to fix a recession caused by animal spirits is to build pyramids, bury jars of paper money so companies would dig them up, and have natural disasters to stimulate construction - no, you can't make this stuff up. The fact that anybody still teaches or believes Keynesian nonsense is ridiculous.
They are predicting a net inflow of $350B from individuals?!? Apparently, their analysts are no longer marked-to-reality either.
I guess I am willing to agree with their 1250(hey, why stop there?) year-end prediction if $600B additional net flows into the market. They should just state the obvious and say they really expect that $600B to come indirectly from the Fed. What's $600B when you plan on spending $5T or so on QE2 The Fed Strikes Back?
My guess is the longer people are unemployed the greater the outflows from the market. There can't be unlimited capital to pump the markets could there?
nothing there worth reading.
attention flash crash enthusiasts. here's a challenge for people more knowledgeable than me. this wiki page is blank and ready for information. i can't believe the squid missed this one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supplemental_Liquidity_Provider
Can't be bothered to read that but based on Tyler's intro I would simply state that the macro is simply a summation of the micro. It is a tautology. One can not be weak while the other is strong: individuals and firms in our economy are strong but at the top level the private economy is weak... how does that make sense? It doesn't.
If policy makers understood this they would not be spending trillions of dollars trying to manipulate "aggregate demand" they would identify those things that motivate the individuals and firms in our economy to produce and trigger them: namely, after-tax returns on work and investment. Cut marginal tax rates, taxes on business, taxes on capital and individuals and firms would respond and the aggregate economy would perform brilliantly. As long as policymakers are fixated on the demand side of the economy and think shoveling trillions at bolstering "consumption" is the answer we are fucked. If they would realize that production must come first, and only after producing does an individual have the ability to consume, policy could be focused on the enhancing production and the economy would recover rather quickly.
More welfare for the institutions and people who need it or think that in the future they may need it. How can the hoodrats buy the new JayZ CD's without more gubment cheese? Consumption must be address immediately or lil shortie won't be able to buy her babyfat. Obama2012.
Two words: Welfare Capitalism...
One word Fascism.
Statism, in any case. They are using whatever means they can to obtain a permanent lefist majority, and a permanent involvement of the state in everything.
If you cut just the income tax for three years it would make one hell of a difference. That would stimulate demand. Unless everyone would still be in debt having not learned their lesson.
Why wouldn't people just use the cut to further pay down debt and buy necessaries instead of iPads?
The shock of returning to paying the taxes after three years would cause a revolt. But won't last three years...
- Ned
Well, I guess BUGGY-WHIPS it is!
Unless someone knows of a secondary offering in PET ROCK coming sometime soon?
Tyler, what do you think the inflation reports will show us?
" 'Where to Invest Now- the path to 1250' in which his conclusion is that it is irrelevant where one invests as long as one invests"? (Not unless you mean this Joe Cohen - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Cohen)
Anyhoo... Gold hit $1250... again. Guess I'm already there, Abby. :)
thanks GS! this is just what i needed to restore my shattered confidence. im going long equites in a big way on monday and might even short some gold to pay for the trades. that way it wont cost me anything and i get all the upside! 1250 here we come baby!
Let's turn back the hands of time, shall we? Hmmm, how about 6/07/05.
Listen to the cunt rag in a confused/denial state regarding computers. Be your own judge in concluding the foresighted failure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNzOc0ieMSM
Ministry - Useless
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3Zo1jngsK0
Charts can tell quite a tale, can't they. For example, the chart for gold and silver shows that it decoupled in the fall of '08. The evidence lies in the fact that they did not pull back with the rest of the market in the spring of '09. The word decouple means merely that the equity market can not put dominant pressure on gold and silver. Platinum has a similar story, but it had not slipped out of the grasps of the beast as quickly. Mind you all three markets have continued to be manipulated, but only by the skin of the beast's teeth.
Platinum has recently tracked equities. Look at the recent pullback; it reflects the US markets verbatim. It also seems to follow the Nikkei as well. This track puts on for an interesting moment now, as we have platinum up first on the op/ex. They will look to shoot it down this week; remember though, what does not kill, only makes one stronger.
Oil is also on for Op/Ex this week. It is currently trading below its real value. I say this because the doelarr is overvalued, silver is under valued, and these two devices correlate with oil. So oil after this week should see a quick appreciation of around 10%.
Silver....poor girl, has been handled by an abusive watcher for so long....it is ok little sister. It will all be over very soon. Silver is worth the light of day. A daisy in a field long unexplored, only to have a brush fire circling it. What is the value of silver. Silver, a metal that is money like its older sisters, was let go long ago. But she remembers. She remembers her past very well. And given the chance, she will have at it. She will slaughter the beast.
Historically valued 16:1, silver was taken out of Central Banks and was let to be traded freely. Only problem was she was kidnapped and held hostage. This to keep the value of the FIAT currentseas high. Dually to keep oil cheap. And this was her fate. But now, the secret is out. Now she remembers. By mid summer she will break free.
As even the least astute of us can tell, the markets are capitulating. It appears DJ is reaffirming 10,000 as though it is actually the new zero- the new bottom. Price in quadrillions of doelarrs and it makes sense. Once this market makes its move towards our girl silver, it better be ready to run. Silver is ready to flee, and I believe she will. This is not hope, but a feeling. I know silver has it in her.
Hope is easily the most debilitating thought of all. Hope in your hand, tell me what you see. Hope while you sit slack jawed on the couch, and hope as you dream, see where that gets you. And do not think the beast forgets this, as he relishes in it.
Hope for the next bubble, as the "M"arket "M"akers always have hope in the bubble. As Soros put it "Gold is the ultimate bubble". Lets analyze this because it is important. Ultimate means biggest or final, and as we know, gold is anything but a bubble right now. So what Georgie boy was saying is that when the time comes for the end, money will flee to gold. As for now, the next bubble in line is the Hollywood Future's contracts that could go on sale this month. Cui bono? Well, Walled Street does of course as they need something to increase velocity, but what about Hollywood itself? Right now they are saying they do not want it, but this is a ploy. Hollywood is running dry, and they need a hit bad. They are saying they do not want it because when the bubble bursts they will say 'I told you so', but they need it. How many production companies are bankrupt? They need this just as bad as Walled Street, this if we are to stay in this paradigm of the casino gulag. Otherwise we move into the ultimate bubble.
The time line of the bubbles are this: dot com, housing, currentsea (which we are currently in the middle of, if not the end). They moved together like a canal; rise up to one and move along....rise up to the next and move along...this as the last one falls away. This but it is a waste of water, as we are not progressing towards anything. This really is the end of the bubble economy, and that IS the economy; it is a bubble economy.
Mozart - Coronation Mass - Karajan 1985:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q283rOVCTao&feature=related
I suppose this was the reason for the FED reflation of the markets using taxpayer dollars; so this kind of tripe could be put in the trough for public consumption to get us to put more of our chips on the craps table to be sticked away by the house, no?
I can see a clear rollover in their charts and figures; however, enough butter on burnt toast will make a child decide it's better than nothing if they know no better.
Only 110,000 miles, only two high speed accidents, bald tires, no guarantee or warranty, and the previous owner still has a set of keys and is in prison, but it's better than walking now isn't it? Used car salesman at the seediest lot in town is what you see here with fancy print and charts.
"balkanization" of America as bad for credit creation? yeah right. this is "the upside" of the "blame bp brigade" is it not? in other words "we have power because we set one of our "groups" against the other thus yielding power for us! oh how ingenius! and all those "capitalists" left for dead due to "the evil bush years" have suddenly "taken flight" because they haven't had it this good since--well probably ever. what's their motto? "there's no better government than vindictive government." keep it up Rahm! Doin GREAT! by the time you all are done even CEO's will be making the minimum. and don't be gettin' no sticky fingers with the benefit package either buster! we're from the government and we're watchin'!
Buying support continues ...
DOW updated charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
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