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Weekly Chartporn, And Why Goldman's Clients Are Not Too Happy With The Firm's Forecast
In addition to his traditional weekly chartporn, Goldman's recently promoted partner David Kostin, who recently has spearheaded the firm's push to new estimate heights (1,450 S&P by December 2011... but why stop there?) provides the strawman opposing views that "clients" have interjected to the sudden and so very anticlimactic shift in the firm's formerly bearish stance. Among these: i) lack of improvement in the labor market would mean limited GDP growth which would constrain top-line sales growth, and as a consequence EPS would probably not reach a new high and the P/E ratio would be unlikely to expand; ii) companies would soon hire more workers and therefore profit margins were at risk of contracting – rather than expanding as we forecast – and thus negative EPS revisions represented a material risk; iii) Contagion from the European sovereign debt problems will lead to a rise in the US Dollar and reduce the translational EPS impact of non-US sales; iv) A view that the 70 bp backup in ten-year Treasury note yields to 3.23% (from 2.63% just one month ago) will slow re-allocation of assets from bonds to stocks. To which Kostin has one response: "Unexpected political developments during the past week only further support our bullish forecast. One might argue that our price target is too low, rather than too high!" It is amazing how much fiscal and monetary Koolaid millions of dollars in bonuses can buy. Incidentally, while we know that Goldman runs US monetary policy courtesy of having Bill Dudley run the New York Fed, it appears that the firm now is also in control of US Fiscal policy, as virtually every suggestion that Hatzius and company have "floated" has been adopted by Obama. Which makes sense: after all Obama's economic team is now down to one person - the president needs to get his fiscal advice from somewhere, and why not make it the bank that runs the world. We will provide more color on the former shortly. In the meantime, enjoy Goldman's latest propaganda.
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Goldman still has clients?
they're called potential short squeeze candidates for the trading desk.
Aka, marks!
Dontcha ever watch South Park? It's called Satan's party palace and that's where the hip sinners hang out.....
Ha! You never know when the Wizard of Oz is going to change his outlook on the world. GS forecasts are made by looking in the rearview mirror. Try driving your car that way and see what happens!
+10 thanks, Tex
Weekend Charts
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/
Have a great one!
Tell me you dont punt...
+1
One day we'll wake up and the S&P will be sitting around 450. What day is that? I don't know. Black Swan events are called Black Swan events for a reason. Robert Prechter thought he knew, but he was spectacularly wrong (or just really, really early). But there is no doubt that this will end badly. Why am I certain of that? Unprecedented government stimulus and we're not even back to 2005. The Ben Bernank has "taught" the public that there should be no fear, no risk. Just buy the dip and it works every time...until it doesn't.
The name Goldman....the irony. The losses.
One of the teachings, regarding forbearance in Hindu culture is that the wheel of karma turns beyond time.
Supra-chronical. Supra-temporal. Don't expect to see Gold-man-ites suffer for their sins in front of thine own eyes.
Come-uppance and just desserts are in-evitable though.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/11/18/enchanted-mesmerized-en-chained/
I've got a hard time deciding whether
these guys are idiots or frauds.
You've got to be a douchebag to see
SPX 1450 on 2.7% GDP. Course, this is
Ben's bubble world, so that net new
stimulus of $200B or so (yeah, that's
all it is, net, net) is the last chance
for these guys to stick retail with
their accumulation of overpriced equity.
The whole sell side is talking about p/e
expansion which means all you
suckers are expected to pay up
WITHOUT the requisite earnings
kick. Heck, they even tell you that.
Sergei Aleynikov guilty.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NYC-jury-ExGoldman-Sachs-apf-1000441507.html
now we are safe again from people trying to rob the american people. oh wait, he was trying to rob a bankster. n/m
Will these incantations from financial wizards turn pocket lint into gold or gold into pocket lint? We may need to seek guidance from higher powers. What does the Bernanke invest in with 100% confidence?
A quick translation from Goldmanese to Traderspeak:
Now that the NASADQ is within 260 points of the 2007 peak, a break out is imminent. Internet stock uber-frothiness is a harbinger of the return of 1999 style animal spirits. Pervasive economic Doom&Gloom will assist by adding a charming 'end of times' edge to push outrageous speculative mania. The lousy jobs market and almost certain worsening of employment levels in every region of the country for as far as the eye can see will lift stocks as investors seek refuge in the safety of something-for-nothing and get-rich-quick-before-the-bottom-falls-out. Booya!
Interesting Caviar.
Maybe a flash boomlet.
Can than a major CRASH.
ORI
New IPOs up $100 on 1st trading day coming in 5...4...3...2...
Ugh! Blatant it has become.
Angry it makes those who know.
ORI
flash boomlet == short squeeze.
but what the fdik???
- Ned
Yup Ned, either way, monies to the top of the pyramid.
In fact, clearly money defies the laws of gravity by always flowing upwards, how strange!
ORI
What? Unhappy? Gods work is not finished. GS will continue to fleece the peasants. LOL
Once GS marketing plan was released, we dumped our entire portfolio into firm.
Three step program
Step One
Goldman Sachs - Heart & Focus - 2010 PR bit. At 30 second into video, we saw the HFT light. All boarded the train hoping to join the illegal corrupt venue to score a bit of coinage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lIxJALaveQ
Step two:
Goldman Could Lose Millions from Code Theft, US Sayshttp://www.cnbc.com/id/31783285
Step three
The arrest of an employee who developed the software to cheat GS investors.
What's to know? The market is just a funny money gauge. As long as the smack keeps flowin', everyone stays in wonderland. Fed knows it too. The chance of this pig of an economy ever becoming 'self-sustaining' is near zero on the Kelvin scale.