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Weekly Charts And Trends
Even with a holiday shortened week in the US there was no shortage of global action last week. Below we present the key charts overviewing the European and Chinese markets in the November 23-27 period.
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Bernanke - auditing the Fed would hurt the economy
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5AR03X20091128
Unfortunately he is right. I do believe Congress getting involved in anything the FED does would make it worse. Hard to imagine given how bad the FED has acted (or not) throughout the financial meltdown but I am pretty sure Congress could have made it worse.
no one wants the congress to get "involved" with the fed as you put it. how about the fed just tells congress excatly what they did with all the money they printed? who did they lend it to? what collateral did they get? mberry is that asking too much? considering the fed just spent 2 trillion don't you think the congress is entitled to know where the money went? i think there's something on that topic in the constitution.
Amazing how many people buy the Fed spin that an audit equals interference. It doesn't.
Amazing how many people buy the Fed spin that an audit equals interference. It doesn't.
Absolute truth.
You, kind sir, ARE WRONG 100%.
All they want to do is a full and complete AUDIT of the Federal Reserve and NOT dictate policy. The Fed is using typical scare tactics (i.e. give us $700B or we blow up the financial system) to try and avoid th reality of all the underhanded, backdoor, ILLEGAL actions they have been doing. Like a trapped animal, they are now doing whatever is necessary to avoid THE TRUTH from being found out.
Yes it may hurt the value and CONfidence of the Federal Reserve Note (also called dollar). Once the world knows the lies, illegal operations and MASSIVE intervention by the Federal reserve of course the dollar will be nearly worthless. Well, it is already close to that, considering its value is a mere 5 cents of buying power as compared to when the Federal Reserve started in the early 1900's.
If anyone here has carefully read how the Federal Reserve system operates, they would realize it is a scam where devaluation via expansion MUST HAPPEN or the system collapses. Simple math tells the basic story. Here is how this system works.
------------------------
P = Principle
I = Interest
L = Loan (paid in full)
The Formula:
P + I = L
-------------------------
Most of the money is created out of thin air for the Principle when one purchases a home. One needs to pay Interest so that their obligation of the Loan is paid off. Problem is, the money to fulfil the Interest is NEVER created. As such, the Federal Reserve MUST continually expand the money supply yet it will never catch up. As such, we have devaluation (also referred to as inflation by some). This inherit flaw in the Federal Reserve system is their undoing, especially in a deflationary environment.
Perhaps now it makes sense why central banks are now net buyers of gold, as this situation usually ends very badly. Those paper FIAT currencies you hold as as valid as the paper you get in a Monopoly game.
And you're ignoring the social aspects of it. The people who GET the loans from the fed are in fact paying interest from EVERYBODY'S pocket. The more you USE MONEY the more you USE THE SUPPORT of your fellow game participant.
To avoid this becoming blaring obvious the banks try to hide inflation. They hide it by leveraging more and more deeply until a person taking 20 grand of savings out of a billion a year bank breaks it cause it can't pay it's phone bill.
Vice chairman of the Norwegian Central Bank. Mr Jan F. Qvigstad, share some interesting thoughts on the central banks transparency policy in this transcript of a speech he held a few weeks ago. The Central Bank of Norway acknowledge the need for greater transparency, but according to Mr. Qvigstad full transarency is not possible. The balance between tranparency and finacial stability is difficult, he says.
“While central banks at one time upheld the value of money with walls and thundering muskets, today the value of money is safeguarded by confidence rooted in disclosure and transparency.”
Transcipt in English here:
http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____75755.aspx
The former chief economist of the EBRD likes the audit
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/11/auditing-the-central-bank-a-jolly-good-thing/
So what happens when the velocity of money (fewer use it for transactions including banks and consumers) is extremely low as it is today. Add to that the problem when people jungle mail and massive Bankrupt like that of today. How is the Federal Reserve system doing under these (and other) mathematical problems?
There MUST be transparency and if the Federal Reserve does not like it deserves to be eliminated. PERIOD! The Federal Reserve's time is up, their system is obviously very flawed and it only takes time to this fact to reach its eventual conclusion.
Auditing the Fed WOULD hurt the economy.... kinda like taking away drugs would hurt the addict. Short term pain to provide long term recovery. It is absolutely necessary.
Why would you present anything from GoldSach as if it had some sort of credibility? Worthless.
Better to know what the opponent is saying
Perhaps one of TD's incarnations is Lloyd Blanksquid
Or a rouge squidling (my fondest hope).
You know for the super smart teacher type, I would think you could spell the word rogue.
I don't suppose you would buy it if I said I meant a baby squid wearing blush, huh?
There are apparently two kinds of people, foxes and hedgehogs. Bernanke is a hedgehog, Dick Cheney is a Fox. For your weekend intellectual pursuit: http://fora.tv/2007/01/26/Why_Foxes_Are_Better_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs
Thanks for sharing these GS Strat updates with us TD ... appreciate the takes.
Can't help but laugh at: "Your 5-minute investment guide to/ for ..."
Each are 19 pages ... 5 minutes each, huh? Interesting timing judgment there.
Wonder how this will be spun on Monday?
Was Black Friday a boom or bust? The National Retail Foundation said that all sectors had “strong crowds” on Friday, and analysts said numbers seemed similar to or slightly better than last year’s levels—but last year’s levels were the worst in decades. According to the NRF, the most popular items were high-definition TVs, laptops, coats and the low-cost Zhu Zhu Pet robotic hamsters.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f233832-db7d-11de-9424-00144feabdc0.html
Anecdotally, basic channel checks appear slightly positive.
Especially when measured against the y/o/y backdrop, would imagine that total traffic figures will come in 8-13% higher while total rev & profit per customer & head are still slightly down; can't recall the term for retail, basically thinking of whatever contextual metric equates with ARPU ... can someone enlighten me?
The actual sales #'s themselves aren't even the most interesting aspect here ... next week will be very interesting to see/ hear what follow-on orders are sent out from retail big box chains. Basically: how are TGT, BBY et al. tactically managing their inventory levels ... kinda like a freely visible gap management for other finance-centric folks.
That was my thought, how many sales were pulled forward. I'm at an intermodal yard, we have been fairly steady. Any follow on orders will probably take a month or 2 to replenish if they have to pull from asia. (depending on what's in the supply chain now)
I thought everything was pretty cheap. Are you being sarcastic meaning deflation?
More holiday fun: Martin Armstrong Forced to Move to a High Security Prison to Silence Him?
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/martin-armstong-forced-to-move-...
"...they tried to slide this past everyone on a holiday weekend. They are breaking the law."
Scary! Quell the dissent. Soon to be all of us here. I have dibbs on the top rack!
What can be done to help Armstrong? His case is both a national and international disgrace. Is there anyone we can call or email? These people are without shame.
What can be done to help Armstrong? His case is both a national and international disgrace. Is there anyone we can call or email? These people are without shame.
Amnesty International? He essentially is a political prisoner at this point. I knew nothing of him until I read that link. It makes me very sad that this is going on in America.
You got some big-time essential reading to catch up on then.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Sometimes his writings feel like visiting "Yoda" out in the forest as he (to me anyway) see's thru a different lens, let's say.
Whether he's the creative writing genius of the century or really a true visionary, I'm already hooked either way. Fascinating story to say the least.
Interesting that the China kickstart states that a correction in the wake of the Dubai mess would represent a buying opportunity.
The European kickstart doesn't mention Dubai at all, much less buying on a correction. And they have banks at an overweight. Is the smart money not so smart, or are they trying to assist with the unloading of some banking positions? Maybe there is money to made in this sector, but I would say at this point one would be early, very early.
This was always a bear market rally.
The primary trend for equities remains down (since early 2008)
We will make new equity lows according to my charts and my USD indicator has been giving BULLISH warnings for some time and I'm still expecting a dollar rally.
The VIX index has been giving bullish warnings for some time and look what's happened ?
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
To go along with the bear market theme, I made a connection between Oprah's downfall and the market's downfall. The rest of the article is here, but I gave a little below to support the discussion on this board: http://www.graspthemarket.com/articles/20091125a.php
An interesting part of the Tribune article was a graph that showed the average daily viewership slipping from approximately 9 million in 2005 to 6.2 million in the beginning of 2009 (the graph only showed 2009 as a single point, not month to month). That is a drop of about 31%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at about 10,500 at the beginning of 2005, and hit a low of 6,469 in March of 2009. This is a drop of about 38% during that time period. Both percentages are very close to each other. Is there a connection? I think there might be.
Tomorrows sales figures are looking rather flat which doesn't bode well for Monday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5AP0M420091128
Speaking of easy charts to look at...The Russell 2000 appears to be tracing out 5 waves down from the top on October 19. This chart shows the bottom of wave (1) that began on October 19, and top of wave (2) (the high on November 23). The rally that began on November 2 was a complex countertrend pattern. The first part of the countertrend was an ABC zigzag followed by a three wave move to the X low on November 13. The second part of the countertrend move traced out a triangle marked by ABCDE. You can see the labeled chart along with some other markets here: http://www.graspthemarket.com/elliottwave/20091130a.php