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    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Weekly Recap, And Upcoming Calendar - All Eyes On Europe

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Sun, 01/09/2011 - 20:12 | 862633 steveo
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I started a project that I call "Real Data".   For the most part these are Excel Spreadsheets that are 100% downloadable with a direct link and no spam.  

Truth benefits the recipient.   Same as "Real Data".   The powers that be do not want to provide Real Data, because it does not benefit them.

One cool sheet I have already is Sentiment Data going all the way back to 1987.   It is yours, for free.   Real Data.   

You got some Real Data you want to share?  Drop a comment or email the data to me at stock *at* hawaii.rr.com

Check out the Real Data here

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/p/real-data-series.html

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 20:27 | 862649 Reese Bobby
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"...focus was on the improving US cyclical recovery..."

Lordy!  The pesky real s-s-s of actual retailers are already reported to be weak and it is a fair guess profit margins were less than stellar.

Job creation is to poop on report after report...

Now I have tended to take the non-manufacturing ISM survey seriously as I thought it might be an objective poll of the real world.  But something is not adding up lately.

The only atempt to argue for a real economic recovery is the fantasyu of a "business spending" recovery.  Read: We may be screwed in our own country but CHINDIA+BRAZIL will be the new end-market demand.  I say, maybe in 20 years but not now.

What would GDP growth be w/o counting the Federal Government deficit spending?  Hint: not positive.

The clock is running...tick tock tick tock...

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 20:36 | 862659 RobotTrader
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Nobody really cares about Europe right now.

Everyone is focused on the NFL playoffs.

Since Los Angeles hasn't had a team in 16 years, we were at the season opener of AMA Supercross at Angel Stadium last night.

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 20:46 | 862681 gorillaonyourback
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dear santa, why didn't i get these ladies under my tree.  i remember specifically asking

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 21:52 | 862809 Oracle of Kypseli
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Sorry, too much mileage.

Sun, 01/09/2011 - 21:25 | 862765 RobotTrader
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Sun, 01/09/2011 - 22:26 | 862859 voltaic
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An interesting take on inflation #s:

The Billion Prices Project is an academic initiative that collects prices from hundreds of online retailers around the world on a daily basis to conduct economic research. We currently monitor daily price fluctuations of ~5 million items sold by ~300 online retailers in more than 70 countries.This webpage showcases examples of average inflation indexes that we created to illustrate the type of statistical work that can be done with this type of data. Our team is currently working on developing econometric models that leverage the data to forecast future trends and conduct economic research.

via The Billion Prices Project @ MIT.

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 00:15 | 862998 BankRiot
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Watch the Spanish bond auctions next week.  Keep an eye on the Spanish ten year.  It has already started to spike to 5.5%.  If it gets to 7%, the the Euro is getting pretty shaky.  I think Spain is too large to "bail out" (paper over)

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 00:19 | 863003 Dugald
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Understanding Derivatives

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar.

Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit .

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These securities then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAAsecured bonds really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, and her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

Now do you understand?

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 00:41 | 863036 scratch_and_sniff
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Jim o'neil china views on hardtalk  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10318089

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 01:03 | 863054 TruthInSunshine
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Red Alert (really):

 

China's December trade surplus came in at 13 billion versus an expected 20 billion.

You want more proof that American Consumers are seriously sucking wind, and just plain tapped out, and in the biggest consumer spending month, no less?

Americans can't even afford to buy as much cheaply made, cheaply priced, Chinese shit anymore. WTFISWTH?

Oh, that's right: Unemployment is (real rate) near 17% and combined with underemployment is (real rate) about 25%, with real wages falling and benefits being eliminated.

Yep. That'll do it.

Can't wait for the massive headlines from the MSM & CNBsC on this /sarcasm.

Mon, 01/10/2011 - 07:20 | 863285 Thepnr
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"China's December trade surplus came in at 13 billion versus an expected 20 billion"

This may go some way to explaining the 40% decline in the Baltic Dry Index since 1st Nov.

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