This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Weekly Review And Upcoming Events Calendar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A look at the week ahead

US stimulus and activity The Senate votes on the fiscal package Monday at 3:00 pm. Assuming it passes, the House of Representatives is likely to vote later in the week. Congress plans to adjourn for the year December 17. Fiscal policy remains very important for the medium term USD outlook due to the building tension between stronger demand and potentially widening twin deficits. There will also be some focus on the Philly Fed and Empire surveys next week, which sent a very divergent message on US manufacturing activity last month. Also next week, there will be $24 worth of Fed-given liquidity courtesy of 4 POMOs on every day except Tuesday.

Central banks Following the Fed’s resumption of QE in November, this week’s FOMC meeting will be quiet. Elsewhere, central banks meetings are taking place in Chile, Colombia, India, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Both the CBC in Chile and the Riksbank in Sweden will hike by 25 bps, in line with consensus, reflecting a desire by these central banks to continue normalizing policy rates given relatively strong growth. Central banks in Colombia, India, Norway, and Switzerland will remain on hold, with the SNB especially important to watch given that EUR/CHF is close to its historic lows on the back of ongoing tensions in the Euro zone.

EU Summit EU leaders aim to agree a limited EU treaty change in order to set up a permanent rescue mechanism for countries in financial difficulty. Foreign affairs ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday (13-14) under various formats will prepare the summit's draft conclusions.

Monday 13th

United States Senate The Senate votes on on the fiscal package Monday at 3:00 pm. Assuming it passes, the House of Representatives is likely to vote later in the week. Congress plans to adjourn for the year December 17.

Tuesday 14th

India WPI (Nov) We expect WPI inflation to come in at 7.6%, above the consensus expectation of 7.5% but significantly lower than the 8.6% in October, mainly due to base effects.

UK CPI (Nov) We forecast 0.2% mom inflation in November, a decline from the 0.3% mom pace in October. Consensus expects inflation to remain unchanged from its October level.

US retail sales (Nov) Consensus calls for a MoM change of 0.6% for headline retail sales, down from the very strong 1.2% mom in October. For retail sales excluding autos consensus is 0.6%.

FOMC With the Fed having resumed quantitative easing at its November meeting, we expect this meeting to be uneventful.

Wednesday 15th

Sweden central policy meeting In line with consensus, we expect a 25bp increase in the repo rate, from 1.0% to 1.25%. The Riksbank decision is likely to be split, with Svensson, and most likely Ekholm, voting against any hike (citing widening interest rate differentials and their effect on the SEK). These factors remain the key downside risk to our call, but we believe a majority will see these as secondary to the need to normalise the policy rate given the strength of the Swedish economy. We forecast the policy rate to reach 2.5% by end-2011.

Norway central bank meeting We expect Norges Bank to keep rates on hold at 2%, in line with consensus.
United States CPI (Nov) We are forecasting headline inflation of 0.28% mom, above consensus of 0.2% mom and above the October reading of 0.2% mom. Excluding food and energy, however, our forecast is 0.07% mom, against consensus of 0.1% mom, and relative to a flat reading in October.

United States Empire survey (Dec) Consensus expects this survey to rebound to 5.0 in December after the sharp drop to -11.1 in November.

United States TIC data (Oct)

United States industrial production (Nov) We are expecting growth of 0.5% mom, above consensus at 0.3% mom and up from a flat reading in October.

Thursday 16th

Chile central bank meeting We expect the CBC to hike the policy rate to 3.25%, in line with consensus, up from 3.0% previously.

India central bank meeting In line with consensus, we think the Reserve Bank of India will pause on hiking rates before resuming in early-2011. The probability of a cash reserve ratio cut has increased given the tightness in the banking system’s liquidity.

Switzerland central bank meeting We expect no change in rates at the SNB’s meeting next week, and the tone of the communication is likely to remain just as cautious as it was in September, with particular concerns expressed about the Euro-zone periphery and the dampening effect of further CHF strength on Swiss exporters. EUR/CHF currently trades very close to the historic record lows. Interestingly, these critical factors for Swiss monetary policy are beyond the SNB’s control. We expect the SNB to make no material changes to its already very dovish path for inflation in the quarters ahead.

Euro zone flash PMIs (Dec) Consensus expects the flash reading of the manufacturing PMI to fall to 55.2 from 55.3 in November. It expects the same level for the services flash PMI, down from 55.4 in November.

Euro zone CPI (Nov) We expect the harmonized CPI to register 1.9% yoy inflation, in line with consensus and unchanged from the October reading.

EU summit (Dec 16-17) EU leaders set to agree a limited EU treaty change in order to set up a permanent rescue mechanism for countries in financial difficulty. Foreign affairs ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday (13-14) under various formats will prepare the summit's draft conclusions.

United States current account (Q3) Consensus expects the current account deficit to measure $126 bn, roughly the same magnitude as the Q2 deficit of $123.3 bn.

United States initial claims (Dec 11) Consensus expects initial claims to be 425k, against 421k last week. United States Philadelphia Fed survey (Dec) Consensus expects a reading of 14.5, following a reading of 22.5 in November.

Friday 17th

Colombia central bank meeting The central bank is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.0%. Germany IFO (Dec) Consensus is looking for a reading of 109.0, against a reading of 109.3 in December.

Compiled using Goldman data

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:21 | 800741 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

 Also next week, there will be $24 worth of Fed-given liquidity courtesy of 4 POMOs on every day except Tuesday.

Funny thing is I know it's  24 BILLION $.

Sad !

No need to change it TD !

 

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:34 | 800753 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the China fears were way overblown. New Zealand, Australia, Shanghai all green right now.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 22:32 | 800826 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

Junior thinks that is just the cutest f-ing girl I have seen in a long time.  Who is she?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 22:59 | 800869 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes, just like everything else that gets way overblown here. Markets have the green light once again to motor higher. 

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 08:46 | 801234 Orly
Orly's picture

Be very careful today, Harry, for pride doth come before the fall.

/:

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 21:43 | 800765 99er
99er's picture

ES and ZB

Setting up for reversals?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/es-zb_12.html

Good luck, folks!

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 22:29 | 800823 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

thanks!  Now I just have one more thing to watch.  Like I didn't have enough already.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 23:37 | 800925 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

If it happens (or when China hikes interest rates or >6months 787 delay confirmed) , a high beta and exuberantly overvalued short trade (wait for breakout confirmation.)

TIE Descending Triangle -- Bearish Formation -- Price Target $11

The pattern meets all the requirements -- the downward breakout is imminent:

1. Downtrend is established -- Check

2. Lower horizontal line is formed -- at least 2 reaction lows are required to form the lower horizontal line -- Check

3. Upper descending trend line is formed -- at least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line -- Check

4. Perfect duration (ripe for a breakout) -- the length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months -- Check

5. Volume -- as the pattern develops, volume usually contracts (volume has been declining) -- Check (When the downside break occurs, there would ideally be an expansion of volume for confirmation. When the horizontal support line of the descending triangle is broken, it turns into resistance.)

Price Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout. ~$17 - $6 = ~$11

A Picture Is Worth a 1000 Bucks

http://oi56.tinypic.com/i3sxoj.jpg

 

P.S. Visit Stock Charts - Chart School to learn more about the descending triangle (if you are not a techy). "The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution."

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:ch...

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 22:57 | 800860 DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

What's North Korea's plans for this week?

Just entertaining Chinese dignitaries, or do they get to play with their guns?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 23:02 | 800876 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Once we get the tax cut officially passed at 3pm, watch the rocket into close. This market will continue with all of this backing all the way to 1275 by EOY. 1350 is now a given for 2011 - at a minimum.

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 23:11 | 800883 BORT
BORT's picture

What will rocket?  The saturn "over 5" 30 year rocket?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 23:53 | 800940 arizona11912
arizona11912's picture

+1

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 08:53 | 801241 Orly
Orly's picture

+2

Can Harry say, "Ooops"?

Sun, 12/12/2010 - 23:21 | 800898 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports that for the week ending Dec. 4, 2010, weekly rail traffic registered gains in the post-holiday week with U.S. freight railroads originating 303,570 carloads, up 6.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal traffic for the week totaled 235,835 trailers and containers, up 13.8 percent compared with the same week in 2009, with container volume up 15.3 percent and trailer volume up 6.5 percent.

Thirteen of the 19 carload commodity groups increased from the comparable week in 2009. Commodities posting double digit gains in loadings included: metallic ores, up 64 percent; metals and products, up 25.3 percent; crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 24.4 percent; waste and scrap materials, up 22.7 percent; petroleum products, up 13 percent; and coke, up 10.1 percent. Among commodities reporting declines were non-metallic minerals, down 10.1 percent; primary forest products, down 9 percent; and grain mill products, down 6.4 percent.

Carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 4.7 percent compared with last year. In the West, carload volume was up 8.2 percent compared with the same week in 2009.

For the first 48 weeks of 2010, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,765,857 carloads, up 7.1 percent from last year, and 10,484,071 trailers or containers, up 14.3 percent from the comparison week in 2009.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 06:58 | 801177 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Once we get the tax cut officially passed at 3pm, watch the rocket into close."

Pump much?

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 08:49 | 801235 Orly
Orly's picture

After the bill passes, US 10-year note yields are going to ramp, sending the USD higher.  And you know what a high-dollar does to high-P/E stocks...

I wouldn't count your chickens just yet, Mr. Wanger.

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 19:44 | 803001 nmewn
nmewn's picture

ROTFLMAO!!!

Mon, 12/13/2010 - 02:30 | 801087 pigs need to eat
pigs need to eat's picture

Compiled using Goldman data........................

please do not question the prime mover.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!