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Weekly Risk Technical Analysis And John Noyce Podcast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the last week of trading, the only variable that mattered was the EURUSD, much more so than at any time in 2011, as the correlation between the FX pair and the SPX hit a near all time high. Which is why it is not surprising that China is now the de facto saviour not so much of Europe (as discussed earlier), but of America's wealthiest, as the only Central Planner mandate continues to be to keep the Russell artificially high for as long as possible while the oligarchy converts paper wealth into hard assets (yes, Comex physical silver just dropped to a new all time low on Friday). And with technicals mattering far more in FX than in stocks, we once again present John Noyce's weekly technical compendium and podcast, as all the major risk indices continue to be at key inflection points. This is particularly true of the GBPUSD, commodities (CRB), the Shanghai Composite (which just closed below the October 2008 primary  updtrend, slide 13), Spanish 10 Years, also Irish and Portuguese bonds, the AUDUSD, but most importantly the EURUSD, which is at 2 standard deviations above fair value which is at about 1.15. Should it revert to that level, the S&P would find itself at about 900 if not lower.

Complete Noyce podcast:

John Noyce 6.24 podcast by user5452365

And presentation:

Noyce 6.24 Presentation

 

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Sat, 06/25/2011 - 17:54 | 1401595 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Volatility is out of equities and in FX. Has been for some time now. Thinking AUDJPY for carry trade?
Nah, trade the FVA for the real roller coaster rides.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:02 | 1401603 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Should it revert to that level, the S&P would find itself at about 900 if not lower.

We are told this is simply impossible considering corporate profits are at record highs. I contend it is all vaporware and soon to be deflated. We might have one more impulse higher in a last gasp effort to allow the wealthy one more opportunity to shift private debt to the public purse while also converting private wealth to 'real' things.

Then we flush the toilet once again.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:29 | 1401643 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They declare 'profits' now expecting more taxes later and because they've been self-digesting with layoffs, roll-ups, mergers, and other molting.

Let's see how a couple years of bubblicious PPI and no demand see them fare.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:57 | 1401675 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I can picture a scenerio where all the fence sitters see new all time highs getting closer and closer as they pour in from the side lines in a last desperate attemp to get some of BB's good cooking only to have the whole shit house cave in before we get there.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 04:41 | 1402509 Highrev
Highrev's picture

corporate profits are at record highs.

Multinationals making big bucks overseas. Study closely just who is booking those profits and why.

Blue chip productive assets is where the Bernank is telegraphing the #winners to be.

Stay away from financials, small caps, and commods.

(Of course, I am referring to the next dip to be bought.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/peak-portfolio-manager-frustration-goldman-weekly-chartology-update#comment-1401043

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:06 | 1401608 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Ag at an all time low Friday?  Please pass that pipe onto my coin dealer.  He musta missed that /sarc.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:25 | 1401638 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Amount not price, I did the same double-take for a sec.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 19:06 | 1401685 mynhair
mynhair's picture

We can but dream......

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 18:21 | 1401636 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Troy ounces of silver that meet the contract specifications as defined in the Exchange Rules for which a Warrant has not been issued.

Buahaha. How much do these troy ounces "weigh" on our planet, Jamie the Greek?

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 19:10 | 1401692 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 So CFTC has effectively Unionized itself?  Along with CME Bitches!   Yen (dot)

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 19:20 | 1401696 etrader
etrader's picture

The  EW'ers all seem to be on one side of the boat, with their  EUR/USD counts.

Not one it seems, has the possablity that this correcton of the May (2011) high is a part of a wave (iv) of a larger leading diagonal wave 1 or A off that June (2011) low.. <?>..

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 19:29 | 1401704 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

This guy's weird.  "The market" has limited attention and can't focus on too many things at once? 

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 19:41 | 1401731 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I was wondering why some huge hedge fund doesn't stand up and take delivery of a huge amount of silver if the inventories were so low.

Seems like a no-brainer trade to me, if the rumor was true.

And why didn't China just trade in 1/100th of its dollar reserves and just clean out the COMEX once and for all?

Instead, they wanna buy Hungarian Fiat Paper?  Something doesn't add up.

And I guess the hedge funds are still too busy buying LULU, CMG, FOSL, and other consumer names which are totally unfazed from all the PIIGS, currency, and metals drama.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 20:47 | 1401831 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Well the Chinese don't want anything to collapse... yet. If they kill the comex they lose some very important advantages.  Firstly the opportunity to swap out dollars for better money. Secondly they have a gun at the head of the US, they can pop that market on demand and that leverage might do them well for any political or miltary event as leverage. Thirdly they would be VERY wise to make sure they have a "lagit" metals trading venue such that when they are ready to destroy the comex or the comex implodes on its own they will get the flows of capitol into their markets.  After all that is the plan right? Loot America and slid the debt typhoon and capitol creation to the East.

 

Is buying Hungarian fiat is a bid to enter the TBTF group? They may want thier banks to be internationally interconnected so that they too will be too important to world banks to be allowed to fail. Looks like a simple attempt to prop things up, stabalize things until they have a domestic market and get leverage and insurance in the process. Sort of odd really, I genrally am told they are big risk takers, but they seem to be pretty handy at buying political insurance for financial assets.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 20:53 | 1401859 Havana White
Havana White's picture

One is weak without 'big risk' willingness. It's the last stratagem I'd sacrifice from my arsenal.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:22 | 1402741 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

Exactly...just as the US has done throughout the world.  The US is the ultimate TBTF.  If we go...it ALL goes. 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 04:43 | 1402511 Highrev
Highrev's picture

I think it has something to do with not wanting to buy high and sell low. ;-)

 

PMs are done.

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 23:29 | 1404620 rocker
rocker's picture

If PMs are done. So are the S&P and  DJI.  The CRB index is the best indicator of the Global Economy.

The U.S. can suck real bad just like Japan did for twenty years as the global economy rocks on.     

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 05:18 | 1402527 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

It does add up, China is being proactive protecting their huge EUR investment.  PIIGS are in internal threat to the Euro, HUF is an external threat through Austria.

by Urban Redneck
on Sat, 06/25/2011 - 14:17
#1401256

EURCHF & CHFHUF

Austria is on the Euro and the SNB doesn't want to repeat the previous CHF devaluation effort.  Convenient time to step in and prevent PIIGS from becoming PIIGSA (again), except this time China might be picking up the bill. 

CYA maneuver on their big EUR migration.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 21:16 | 1401909 MichaelFitz
MichaelFitz's picture

Load up on PMs in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe folks.   Buy it, hold it, hide it in your ass, because it might be what saves same a year from now...

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 21:20 | 1401919 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I have been trying to see how many silver eagles I can stuff in my mouth like a squirrel, Good times!

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 21:41 | 1401943 Boston
Boston's picture

This is really good stuff.

Back in early February, Noyce's analysis of the 10-year Treasury pointed to a downturn in yields.  He pretty much top-ticked yields, which have plunged from 3.7% back then to 2.85% today.  

Now his work is supporting the idea that big-time Risk Off is imminent.  Time to go long the USD (and stay long Treasuries) and pretty much short everything else......

 

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 23:16 | 1402125 bakken
bakken's picture

YES, ME TOO,  TECHNICALS ARE STRONG ON THE DOLLAR JUST NOW.  O.81 top near term???

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 00:01 | 1402210 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, goody.  Some tips on how to perpetuate the Ponzi.  Thanks!

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:00 | 1402714 anony
anony's picture

Life is a temp job so if you can outlast the beginning of a reversal, you should be pretty well off in the perpetuation model.

And that's all that really matters, because to be frank, I don't really give much of a damn about my fellow man, nor, if truth be allowed to surface in this ever more politically correct world, does anyone else. Particklelerly the top 10%.

While the top 10% is accused every minute of being selfish, neurotically so, i haven't found many in the bottom 90% who don't possess the very same traits they denounce in the others.

Evolution may eventually breed out this trait, but I don't see that happening in the next thousand years. By then, anything could have occurred.

Ayn Rand was not only right, the outcry about her philosophy only confirms it.

 

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 11:55 | 1402972 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Are you somewhat confused about what her message really is?

You might want to view a few of the YouTube video interviews if you're just too lazy to read the books.

Sat, 06/25/2011 - 23:30 | 1402153 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

thx, td.  2 sigma.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 03:18 | 1402472 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

excellent smithers, podcast too.

 

Anyone following the DF banning of silver and gold trading on margin, i have just got another letter from a broker i use,(not for PM trading).

Dear ,

As a result of the recently enacted Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, U.S.-based retail forex dealers such as OANDA are prohibited from offering leveraged trading in precious metals to retail clients after Friday, July 15, 2011.

As a client trading with our OANDA Corporate (U.S.) Division, you will not be able to trade our four precious metal pairs (XAU/USD, XAG/USD, XAU/JPY, XAG/JPY) on a leveraged basis, effective end of day July 15, 2011. Leveraged trading in other currency pairs will remain unaffected, with the same margin requirements.

We are working hard to minimize the impact of this restriction on our clients' trading. For example, if you are not a citizen or resident of the U.S.A. you will be able to transition soon to our OANDA Europe Division without needing to close your open positions. We will send a detailed email soon with instructions on how to migrate your account.

We sincerely regret any inconvenience caused by this change in legal requirements. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our Customer Service Team at

frontdesk@oanda.com.

We appreciate your business with OANDA.

- The OANDA fxTrade Team

Why is this change required?

Effective the end of Friday, July 15, 2011, Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFEDs) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be prohibited from offering leveraged retail trading in commodities, including precious metals such as gold and silver. This change in the U.S. law is being enforced by the CFTC as an outcome of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

So, from this it seems they are implying that if you are a US citizen, you will still not be able to trade, even with a european account. Strange that. But it also suggests they might take trades without margin...

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 04:58 | 1402520 Highrev
Highrev's picture

To sum up, some holds, some breaks, but still a negative bias…

. . . and all arithmetic charts.


Sun, 06/26/2011 - 06:07 | 1402547 chump666
chump666's picture

china saving the EUR? China is slowing down, on track for a major crash. Major EUR dump coming.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 06:07 | 1402548 chump666
chump666's picture

china saving the EUR? China is slowing down, on track for a major crash. Major EUR dump coming.

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 08:38 | 1402624 dcb
dcb's picture

won't ever happen, an exception I will write about later). if a long term primary downtrend is extablished ever again the poweres that be will Qe again. they know that the entire banking financial system depends on making sure the origiional Qe money they gave to the banks is never allowed to be loss making. It's why we had QE 2.

The result will be ever less value of paper currency.

They won't allow beccuase their own jobs are on the line.

 

the only difference is that if they know the bankers have gone short again while they are telling us all we be OK. then it is once again a deliberate lie to make sure we loose out in the fall but the bankers make money.

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