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Sweet Jesus. Look at the DJ Transportation index. It's one of the best leading indicators out there and it's lagged the DJIA severely through this. I think the government forgot to get its fingers in this nook of the economy...
O, wait, Morgan Stanley put UNP on its ST Tactical Buy list yesterday. Have no fear, "cargo through the 3q came in at the bottom of our expected range... we view shares as really undervalued... only up to go."
This is a concrete indicator of economic activity, and it certainly does not say the recession/depression is over, does it?
Here in Texas, right before a big nasty Fall thunderstorm rolls in it will get real warm and windy, the clouds will expand into the heavens, hot and cold pushing against one another elementally, and then the storm breaks.
Double, double rails in trouble;
Fire burn, and stocks bubble.
Here where I am, we get maybe one Amtrack Texas Eagle, One slow train, one coal train and a Z train along with a proper freight train each day.
Back in 2003, the mainline shook with traffic 24-7, sometimes trains side by side overtaking each other while moving so that they dont hold the tracks up sitting still.
I expect no improvement. Too damn quiet around here these days. Same with trucking.
Recession over? No... anybody who says that lies. It is not.
What matters is not what happened relative to a year ago. What mattes is what has happened relative to recently. Companies do not manage to what happened one year, two years, five years, ten years ago. They manage to what they believe is going to happen, which they derive primarily from what has most recently happened (adjusted for seasonality and productive capacity). Comparing whatever data stream to one year ago is interesting but is nonetheless a common logical fallacy on Wall Street.
OK, YoY it does sound pretty dismal, but I pointed this out last month as well...but the shorter term trend has been upwards. The lows in car loading numbers were set back around May (depending on which number you look at). Since then the numbers have been trending positive. May total carloadings was around 430,000, it is currently up to 475,000.
I have two brothers in law that work for UP. Both of them concur that their activity has been picking up. One says they are increasing about 1000 cars a work (this was two weeks ago when I talked to him).
I agree the economy isn't revved and roaring, but to just look at YoY numbers isn't a totally accurate snapshot either.
Anyone have good sources for Air Freight and Trucking?
Take a look at the truck stops and terminals.
Dead Drivers walking. Or eating bean soup and bread waiting for a load that might not come in for while.
No urgency at all. Except to the money.
Rail transport, especially electrified rail, is much more efficient, and less damaging to the environment, than transportation by car or truck. It can help to dramatically reduce energy use and carbon emission. Even better, it's a win/win scenario for the economy, the environment and the fight against global warming.
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