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Weekly Visual CFTC Commitment Of Traders Summary - August 27
This week's CFTC Commitment of Traders action, submitted by Libanman Futures.
But first our summary on the key COT activity: net spec long positions in wheat futures on the CBOT and the KCBOT hit fresh records, at 36.7k and 67.6k: is more food inflation on the immediate horizon? Net spec shorts in US Treasury Bonds, and LT Us Treasury Bonds, while still just negative at -5.8k, and -2.6k, respectively, are at the highest they have been in 2010: keep an eye on this metric as a positive inflection point may be the contrarian signal to sell. At least those concerned about the price of chocolate may rest easy: Cocoa ICE futures dipped to the lowest net spec total for 2010, at 8,092k. In currencies, the JPY posted the second highest net long exposure for 2010 at +51,069 Net Spec, an increase of 1,000 from a week prior, and a far cry from the -55.7k recorded on April 13. EUR net positions also droppe notably, after hitting a 2010 high of -3,731k, the net spec contracts have declined to -21.6k as of August 24.
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Looks to me like traders are commited to being long today.
I read on TPC or something like that that the number of bullish people in the market is the lowest since the March 09 lows.
I think that that is bullish alone, aside from the technicals.
I totally agree with you that the near term is bullish, and the fact that the vast majority of traders is bearish reaffirms that fact.
always the contrarian. sometimes its a one way street with a dead end.
Yeah, but most of the time it's the right call.
If the majority of people were right, nobody could ever make money trading.
By the way, did you notice that the Dow ended up 165, at the highs of the day?
I just wanted to point that out to you since:
First, you laughed at me for saying the market would be up.
Then, you said it would go down in the afternoon.
Would you admit that though? Nah...
Great charts to see where the fast money is, more please! (says the rational side)
However, the goverment should regulate commodity futures and eliminate money managers and speculators, especially leveraged investors. (says the emotional side).
My theory is that the real tipping point in the financial meltdown was the result of futures betting in the oil markets. After the yield was squeezed out of real estate and equities, the fast money went to oil. Naturally the higher prices at the pump impacted cash flow and the ability to pay mortgages. SNAP, the house of cards came down.
But now we are back in the leveraged game of musical chairs. Yields are gone in most asset classes, so we go to commodities. Consumers and corporations will soon feel the pinch and have less money for consumption of value added (job creating) goods. SNAP get ready for another down another leg.
Now before you call me a communist. Think about how this impacts financial services. Every leg down some funds get creamed and the financial services industry gets smaller.
Consumers spending and working less create less tax reciepts to fund those state pension funds that fast money managers rely on.
Commodity investing is a race of musical chairs to bankruptcy.
Howevere, this liquidity driven inflation gives Bennie and Obamason the GDP numbers they want.
And don't worry, government mandated insurance will soon get some fresh cash in the game at consumers expense.
Ranting aside, please keep sharing these charts, because I want yield too!
Let's see if Ginsler can do what he says he'll do after being given his new regulatory power. I don't hold high hopes for more transparency.
Net managed money decline starded at about 08/10.
Negative large speculators building in progress...
Time to start shorting copper?