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Weekly Visual CFTC Commitment Of Traders Summary - September 24: Treasury Spec Contracts At 2010 High
Before we present the traditional weekly charts summarizing the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, we would like to present the literal surge in net spec positions in US Treasuries, across the 2, 5, and 10-Year spectrum. For the first time in 2010, net non-commercial spec positions for all three series are positive, and the cumulative across the three has surged to a 2010 high of 190,264 contracts. There may not be a bubble in treasuries (there is), but with every speculator now openly betting on a continued rise in USTs, it means someone has to take the other side of the trade. Kinda like when all those hedge funds holding Apple are hoping that nothing ever happens to Steve Jobs. (perhaps the irony that the fate of Apple and thus of the entire US stock market, rests in the fate of one very, very thin man, is worthy of its own post).
And here are the traditional COT charts, courtesy of Libanman Futures.
COT Standard:
COT Financials:
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Commitments, shmitments. Next week should see some real fireworx!
ROFL
What, I thought the fed was taking the other side? What's QE 2 about?
AAPL, not AMZN.
AMZN will do just fine without Jeff "Bozo"
LOL....
I got short both of them in part based upon Karl Denninger's analysis and insights into AAPL:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167324
I might go for the trifecta next week and grab a couple of PCLN puts. (Why do I always think penicillin when I see that symbol?)
I was doing nicely until the ramp job at the end of the day. Absolutely no accounting for that.
Remember, don't fight the FED-they have all the fiat reserve currency in the world...
Remember, reality has a way of biting when you least expect it.
Amen..
There is no other side. They are on both sides and both win or there is a tie, or one day one side wins and the next day the other one does.
Question: How many Front Running Pigmen can dance on...
Rasputin
- Fri, Aug 13, 2010 - 11:42 AM
...the head of the Fed Politburo?
LOL.
These goons have Bernanke figured out for the fool he is.
They are gonna drive 30-year Treasury interest rates right down to
ZERO.
And the Fed will snap up every single one of Uncle Thug's IOUs the
Pigmen buy.
It's a perfect scam.
Just look at the chart below.
And they're doing the same thing to McMortgage rates, as reflected
in the chart under the Treasury graph.
(Rasputin): Never in my wildest nightmares would I have dreamed
that--with tens and tens of trillions of debt piled up--interest rates
would be pounded to near-zero.
But there it is, up in my face.
Image #1:
did you ever try your hand at helping those in rehab? you have a clever way...
Time to buy??? Think I'd rather stick a needle in my eyes...
Next week the Treasury only has to roll $158 Billion. Round and round they go, when they stop nobody knows.
And the Fed with a $100 billion in monetization.
And 50 Billion more (monetization) for the wholesale credit unions they took down today
The next QE Should be 14 trillion, and with that money the FED should just clear the US deficit and call this whole thing OVER AND OUT!
Who cares if a pack of sigarettes will cost 10$ by then!
They come close to that in some states already, did you forget to add a 0?
Over half the price will be tax...
I don't smoke. Cigarettes. I'd start if I thought they were any good. Who's that hotty on Fox that's been rippin' into me....
Non-hotties on Fox? Huh?
Molly Line is mine....
I really have nothing of credibility to add- since I sold AAPL at 65.00 ish when Jobs got sickly looking...
Playing the old Rimm Game. The higher it goes the more people short it. Then push it even higher to take out the new shorts. Then it goes higher and more people short it. They then push it higher to take out the new shorts. Etc, Etc.
Problem with Rimm is that too many people got burned shorting it and now no one will. So no shorts to ramp it up on any more. Rimm has cratered. Market will do the same in time.
A sell off in Treasuries will only mean that stocks go higher. there is no correlation anymore between falling yields and falling stocks. this ramp job in equities is going to continue till the elections, at least.
A sell off in USTs will mean the USD is toast. Go TBT!
F stocks, they be for morons, or 201K contributors.
It seems queer to me that people have this prescient knowledge that a sell-off in UST's is going to push stocks higher than more valuable investments like commodities in a relative nature.
Sure the DOW was up 1.72% today but let's look at a couple other investments...
Corn +4.51%
Soybean oil +2.23%
Soybean meal +2.52%
Oats +4.42%
Oil +2.03%
Rough Rice +2.28%
Soybeans +2.97%
Wheat +3.33%
Cotton +3.22%
Lumber +3.97%
Sugar +2.97%
So...What are people buying again? stocks?
It's clear to me that if you owned stocks in the last year you are poorer than if you owned commodities and you would be even poorer if you had your dollars under the bed.
5 *'s !!! Please add a few metals to the list too.
Commodities, since they are real assets and cannot be printed, are relatively few compared to an endless stream of paper 'assets'...And, the commodities markets are tiny compared to world bond/stock mkts.
If a small percentage of the dollars now invested in treasuries or stocks were to flood into commodities we would have another situation like happend when oil spiked to ~ $147 a while back...except this time the price of food would be driven artifically high by the spec flood of money into commodities.
The problem is obvious enough. The US and every other country printing fiat currencies have produced far more fiat paper than the underlying commodities can be priced at and still be afforded by consumers. This is the reason, among others, that the world needs currencies that cannot be magically printed into existance. Waaay too many paper claims on too few underlying assets...wherever one looks.
The place for the excess currencies to flow into without starving the world population of cereal grains is gold and other PMs.
Be careful what you wish for in the soft commodities markets. If people get hungry they will not sit on their asses and watch tv.
I did some research on Jobs cancer type this summer. If the form of pancreatic cancer he has is not "rare", well then the markets have been fed lies about his health all along.
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