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Weekly Visual CFTC Commitment Of Traders Summary - September 3 - 10 Year UST Net Spec Positions Surge

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/03/2010 21:12 -0400

Before we get into the core visualizations, here are this week's key observations:

Wheat net spec positions on the CBOT dropped substantially, from a record 36.7k to 25.9k W/W, even as they hit a fresh record on the KCBOT, at 71.6k from 67.6 W/W.
After some fireworks earlier in the year, Cocoa net spec positions have plunged to the lowest in the year, and the first negative print in 2010, at -1.6K, compared to 8.1K the week prior.
Silver COMEX net specs surged to the highest in 2010, hitting a 2010 record of 44.8K, compared to 34.8K the week prior.
Gold Comex net specs came at the second highest print of 2010 at 238K, an increase from 221K the week prior, lower only to the 244K recorded on June 22.
Currencies:
- CHF - jumped to the highest in a month, at 14.3k, from 13.9k W/W
- GBP - jumped to the lowest in over a month, at -15.3k, from -4.4k W/W
- JPY - remained flat at 49.9K, compared to 51.0k W/W
- EUR - short bets continue to increase in straight line, after hitting a 2010 high of -3.7K on August 10, the are now down to -25.6K, compared to -21.6K the week prior.

The most interesting observation is the net spec breakdown in 2 Year, 5 Year and 10 Year Treasury: as can be seen on the chart below, 10 Year positions surged Week over Week, jumping by a stunning 80k contracts, to 62.9K from -19.9K the week prior. This was only the first time this series has gone positive for the entire year. This is a major bullish inversion point at a time when the 10 Year is finally starting to decline. Someone may get burned...

And here are select visualized COT's, courtesy of Libanman Futures

Consolidated commodities (non financials) COT report:

Financial COT report:

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Fri, 09/03/2010 - 21:35 | 563266 NOTW777

gold and silver still smokin

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:28 | 563681 breezer1

jim willie on silver bear...

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.10/failure.html

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 21:36 | 563269 illyia

Thanks.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 21:50 | 563287 tom a taxpayer

Thank you. Great information.

Great charts.

I love those Libanman visuals...so clear and so easy to see the key data points and trends.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 23:33 | 563363 flacon

[JP Morgan] Blythe Masters Says ‘Don’t Panic’ as Commodities Slip:

Masters said. “Remember that you work for a business that is one of the boldest and gutsiest and ballsiest businesses that I’ve ever had the pleasure and privilege to work with.”

Masters explained what happened like this:

"We got squeezed. We made a rookie error, we made ourselve vulnerable to a squeeze."

So JPMorgan's commodities unit is under a lot of pressure right now.

http://www.businessinsider.com/blythe-masters-jpmorgan-conference-call-2010-8#ixzz0yUEJFoSQ

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 00:12 | 563388 What_Me_Worry

LOL @ commercials increasing their net short in silver. They are truly deaf. I just wonder how much of their "intervention" has been able to hold back the price of silver recently. Obviously, they shot their wad a few hours before expiration. Their selling has almost immediately brought about an immediate recovery, ala Swiss forex intervention.

Then again, when you have unlimited fiat with clearly implicit backing by your sovereign government, why not go for broke? Especially when your sovereign allows you to settle in the fiat you create to settle the contracts, even if you lose.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 07:44 | 563518 Robslob

Same stuff we all are fighting Alfred E. Neuman...try shorting the market at any given time and see what happens...

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 08:06 | 563527 breezer1

another interesting perspective on PMs from jeff, part 2 ...

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14863:bullion-buying-in-china-and-india-part-ii&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 13:56 | 563766 apberusdisvet

The silver Ponzi scheme is definitely unraveling; if Silver breaks $20 in the Asian/Euro markets on Monday without a CB response, then it's off to the moon.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:00 | 563934 Djirk

Great charts.

Looks like sipping coffee with sugar in Geneva wearing a GAP sweatshirt is going to cost more in a few months.

GDP bitchez

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 11:09 | 564568 Kobe Beef

You are a practical man. I like that.

does anybody else smell a super spike in coffee?

http://www.barchart.com/cache/249a3c6944a5dee50ba07b1d987481b7.png

any coffee traders come around here? I'll buy you a cup.

Cheers,

Beef

Sun, 09/05/2010 - 02:28 | 564372 Eric Cartman

"This is a major bullish inversion point at a time when the 10 Year is finally starting to decline. Someone may get burned..."

What exactly does this mean? That 10 yr prices may continue to move higher?

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 13:59 | 566004 RockyRacoon

Obfuscation! Perfect for being able to retrospectively say, "I told ya so".

Mon, 09/06/2010 - 23:35 | 566556 pointingtrade

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