Welcome To The Confidenceless, Stagflationary, Recoverlyess Recovery: Consumer Confidence Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture

The Confidence Board has released its Consumer Confidence Number, which in March went in freefall from the revised previous print of 72, highest in 3 years, to a below consensus 63.4 (expectations of 65). But while this number is largely irrelevant, the Inflation Rate index surged from 5.5 to 6.7, the highest since October 2008.

The chart below of inflationary expectations shows why Bernanke is in a bind: QE3 means this line will go parabolic; no QE3 means the market will go inversely parabolic. Pick your poison.

And longer-term. There has been a market crash after every historic surge.

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Ray1968's picture

And the market is up because.........?

Oh yeah, its priced in. POMO. Whatever.

B9K9's picture

Bernanke is in a blind

??? Never, ever make the mistake of assuming these guys didn't know exactly what they were doing. In 2008, they were faced with a deflationary collapse - of their own making, I might add.

They had two choices: let it go down then, or try a Hail Mary - after all, if the recovery attempt failed, then what would be the difference? Oh, other than case 1 would have been limited to the financial/economic sector, whereas case 2 is the nation-state itself, but I digress.

Ben, et al have always know they couldn't actually offset the credit component via straight monetary (or even fiscal) policy. So, the game was to pimp daddy the markets, in conjunction with the largest, most pervasive propaganda campaign of all time, along with a huge dose of bread (UI, SNAP, WIC) & circus (TV).

This was all done, of course, in order to get the idiot sheep to once again, 'buy, buy, buy!' not with real cash savings and/or earnings, but with credit supplied by their friendly neighborhood banker. It was a race against time, all hinging upon getting another broad-based bubble going before rapidly spiking price increases defeated confidence.

Well, surprise surprise, the campaign failed. Hence we are beginning to see the incipient 'escape from Moscow, 1812' rear-guard actions designed to protect the looters from the wrath of surprised bag holders. ZH has always been ahead of the curve; I would guess the next fertile zone would be communications facilities that supported the 'never forget' variety.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

As Todd Harrison of Minyanville.com said back in 2008 as the disaster was publicly unfolding, the Fed made a conscious decision to sell the car crash and buy the cancer.

Welcome to the terminal stage of cancer. You get sick as hell, but you often hang on for much longer than you expected.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

If we are living in a constitutional republic this

"mulatto swan" as I refer to it has implications that are historic and terrifying. 


"Billionaire developer and possible Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is now suggesting Barack Obama's presidency could be "illegal" if legitimate proof is not provided demonstrating the commander in chief is indeed a "natural born citizen" of the U.S. "

one eyed man in the land of the blind.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

one eyed man in the land of the blind.

Which one is the one eyed man? Trump or Obama?

tewkatz's picture

To answer that, we should all clean our monocles.

francis_sawyer's picture

"one eyed man in the land of the blind"

In the land of no clothes, the man with the biggest one eyed monster is king!

Mr Anderson's picture


The terminal stage of cancer is a perfect way to put it. Many people when first diagnosed with cancer rally. They don't feel bad so they go out and live life to the fullest (confidence index-up). As their bucket list gets smaller and the chemo isn't doing the trick they begin to lag, confidence goes down,  then when you know the end is near you panic.

Thus the great government bubble, saddled with the cancerous housing crisis creates true panic within society. 


wisefool's picture

And Leisman just announced that the freedom of information act lawsuit that Fox Business and Bloomberg filed against the Fed has been decided in favor of getting the script to this Greek tragedy out there for all of us well read ZH'ers to play Mystery Science Theater 9000 with, instead of being regarded as a bunch of illegitimate cynics.

EDIT: And I say greek tragedy in earnest. Nobody was truly evil, including the Fed, banks, overleveraged buyers, MBA masters of the universe or the MSM. But everybody is going to die from inflation anyway. Obla De, Obla Da.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

When you jettison the common good for infinite wealth you are evil. When all consuming greed and the whole world be damned, becomes your common ethos, you are evil. When regulators who's very existence is precisely to regulate against such fraud and outright violations as the housing bubble and all its fraud incarnate, turn a blind eye, they become evil.

When the very President of this nation is himself a serial fraudster, he becomes evil. Evil thy name is Bush, Clinton, Obama, Goldman Sachs, SEC, Federal Reserve and countless others that make your number legion.


This was not a "natural disaster" this was man made and there is blame enough for all. Let history not be rewritten, let these names not be forgotten. We should build a monument to TARP constructed entirely of millions of worthless aluminum pennies, perhaps in the shape of an extended middle finger, and on this shrine should be the names of all who accepted TARP, all who designed TARP and all who voted for TARP.

Mr Anderson's picture

If you built a shrine with the middle finger.  Trav7777's head would become so large not even ZH readers could handle him.

dbach's picture

Its a tough time to be a bear. Maybe when good news finally hits the wires there'll be a solid sell off. I dont know anymore. But seriously who is buying?

Sudden Debt's picture



Don Birnam's picture

The verdict:

DJIA +28

NAZZ +12 ( "BTFD" )

S&P +1

"Nothing much to see here, folks. Next ?"

redpill's picture

1) Continue physical accumulation.

2) Go long AGQ on margin.  If they want to lend money so bad use it against them.

lincolnsteffens's picture

STFP-sell the fucking peak

Can volume go much lower?

firstdivision's picture

...and there goes the market running up on the bad news.  It is defo trying to price in QE3.  I wonder what the banks are putting on this survey for QE3?  My guess is $100T now.

A Man without Qualities's picture

Unbelievable!  Confidence down owing to inflation expectations does not imply a green light for more QE, but what do I know, I'm not a computer...

DB Cooper's picture

But if you have a Phd in economics......

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yup.  Dollar seems to have overhead resistance.  Hit it, went back in the shitter, and market took off.  CMG up 1.5%.  Go fraud.

Cdad's picture

You have to just love that CMG action.  If you watch it intraday, you can clearly see the mechanism, how the fraud works at the individual stock level...a true "pyramid" stock.

And if the SEC ever pulled the tape of trades the day after the last earnings CC...I am convinced a good many syndicate members would find themselves with notices...or perhaps agents "visiting."

Funny...it is almost like the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street somehow thinks we are all blind or something.  And even more funny, the syndicate has somehow forgotten that its entire existence depends upon "trust."

Cue up Robo fraud with a 12 month chart filled with sound and fury, signifying nothing.

SheepDog-One's picture

I dont see the market running up unless youre talking about gold.

firstdivision's picture

Look at an intrady of SPX and look right at 10am what happened.

Cdad's picture


I think Helluva was simply referring to the way the Roach Motel [SPY] jumped 3/4 of a buck in about 20 minutes...you know, so that syndicate members can dump underlying stock into the gaping maw of that sick, sick, ETF...that is supposed to represent the S&P 500 mind you.....LOL!  Talk about striking right at the heart of the fraudulent equity market at Fraud Central, NY, NY.

But I don't think anyone really needs to worry about the market up and running away, because we all know that as soon as the underlying stock is dumped down the gaping maw of the Roach Motel, the syndicate will then be clear to ramp the Inverse Roach Motel while simultaneously naked short selling the Roach Motel into oblivion...for at least 20 minutes, thus showing everyone once again what a Ponzi scheme bunch of fuckwads the Criminal Syndicate Known As Wall Street really is.

Cue Jamie Dimon bitching about how hard it is to be a bailed out billionaire, while K. Finerman quivers about how hot he is, and all will be right with the world...and the American Dream won't be dead and in its grave or anything...no no...

Good grief [and by that I mean when will the layoffs finally be allowed to proceed from the now putrid financial services industry?]

A_MacLaren's picture

...and there goes the market running up on the bad news.

Uh, no.  Sad reality is it soundly and rsoundingly beat the whishper number.

Which was down around...  oh..............   2.

divide_by_zero's picture

AP Headline "Stocks gain as confidence falls less than feared", when did the meme change from "better than expected".


francis_sawyer's picture

Still 2 more trading days until the end of Q1...


Momos desperate to beat their "Lipper Averages" (whatever TF they are)...

Racer's picture

Who cares about people, HFT will love QEx

goldfish1's picture


"I think the market is beginning to believe that there will be no QE3," said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.

"We expect that ... the end of quantitative easing..." said Goldman Sachs in a report on Tuesday.


shushup's picture

Great! Now the market will rally because the bulls in this market loves all news especially bad news.

DonnieD's picture

Inflation in October of 08?

Republican Lackey's picture

When peoples confidence is down they spend like drunken sailors! Buy gold to ward off the hyperinflation that always accompanies low consumer confidence!

Spalding_Smailes's picture

the Inflation Rate index surged 


Another nail in QE3 coffin ?

oogs66's picture

Nah, a sign that its working.  Everything is a sign that its working.

d00daa's picture

Oh please.

Just watch all of the upcoming Q1 earnings "misses" and downward guidance revisions, and the equity rout that follows.

It's 2010 all over again.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Not from the fortune 500 companies pimping wears across the globe .... It's been 8 quarters of growth for most, Starbux, McD's, Pepsi, Exxon, Yum Brands, Macy's , Chipotle, Fluor ect .....

d00daa's picture

Less than half of those names you mentioned beat their Q1 "consensus," and ALL OF THEM revise expectations downward.  Wanna take the other side of that bet?

francis_sawyer's picture

"the Inflation Rate index surged"


Learn it... Know it... Live it!


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Missed it by [ ] that much."

Agent Maxwell Smart

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Here....on a daily basis in the comment section. Just look and you shall find. Why mess around with articles when I can play in the sand box all day? :>)

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Only Soviet style central planning can save us, comrades. 

Republican Lackey's picture

The only thing that will save us is deflation.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Does this means the Soviets won? 

How do I subscribe to Pravda?


EscapeKey's picture

In Soviet Russia, Pravda subscribes to YOU.