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Welcome To The Confidenceless, Stagflationary, Recoverlyess Recovery: Consumer Confidence Plunges
The Confidence Board has released its Consumer Confidence Number, which in March went in freefall from the revised previous print of 72, highest in 3 years, to a below consensus 63.4 (expectations of 65). But while this number is largely irrelevant, the Inflation Rate index surged from 5.5 to 6.7, the highest since October 2008.
The chart below of inflationary expectations shows why Bernanke is in a bind: QE3 means this line will go parabolic; no QE3 means the market will go inversely parabolic. Pick your poison.
And longer-term. There has been a market crash after every historic surge.
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What a shock.
And the market is up because.........?
Oh yeah, its priced in. POMO. Whatever.
??? Never, ever make the mistake of assuming these guys didn't know exactly what they were doing. In 2008, they were faced with a deflationary collapse - of their own making, I might add.
They had two choices: let it go down then, or try a Hail Mary - after all, if the recovery attempt failed, then what would be the difference? Oh, other than case 1 would have been limited to the financial/economic sector, whereas case 2 is the nation-state itself, but I digress.
Ben, et al have always know they couldn't actually offset the credit component via straight monetary (or even fiscal) policy. So, the game was to pimp daddy the markets, in conjunction with the largest, most pervasive propaganda campaign of all time, along with a huge dose of bread (UI, SNAP, WIC) & circus (TV).
This was all done, of course, in order to get the idiot sheep to once again, 'buy, buy, buy!' not with real cash savings and/or earnings, but with credit supplied by their friendly neighborhood banker. It was a race against time, all hinging upon getting another broad-based bubble going before rapidly spiking price increases defeated confidence.
Well, surprise surprise, the campaign failed. Hence we are beginning to see the incipient 'escape from Moscow, 1812' rear-guard actions designed to protect the looters from the wrath of surprised bag holders. ZH has always been ahead of the curve; I would guess the next fertile zone would be communications facilities that supported the 'never forget' variety.
As Todd Harrison of Minyanville.com said back in 2008 as the disaster was publicly unfolding, the Fed made a conscious decision to sell the car crash and buy the cancer.
Welcome to the terminal stage of cancer. You get sick as hell, but you often hang on for much longer than you expected.
If we are living in a constitutional republic this
"mulatto swan" as I refer to it has implications that are historic and terrifying.
"Billionaire developer and possible Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is now suggesting Barack Obama's presidency could be "illegal" if legitimate proof is not provided demonstrating the commander in chief is indeed a "natural born citizen" of the U.S. "
one eyed man in the land of the blind.
Which one is the one eyed man? Trump or Obama?
To answer that, we should all clean our monocles.
"one eyed man in the land of the blind"
In the land of no clothes, the man with the biggest one eyed monster is king!
Cog,
The terminal stage of cancer is a perfect way to put it. Many people when first diagnosed with cancer rally. They don't feel bad so they go out and live life to the fullest (confidence index-up). As their bucket list gets smaller and the chemo isn't doing the trick they begin to lag, confidence goes down, then when you know the end is near you panic.
Thus the great government bubble, saddled with the cancerous housing crisis creates true panic within society.
right on point
+1
And Leisman just announced that the freedom of information act lawsuit that Fox Business and Bloomberg filed against the Fed has been decided in favor of getting the script to this Greek tragedy out there for all of us well read ZH'ers to play Mystery Science Theater 9000 with, instead of being regarded as a bunch of illegitimate cynics.
EDIT: And I say greek tragedy in earnest. Nobody was truly evil, including the Fed, banks, overleveraged buyers, MBA masters of the universe or the MSM. But everybody is going to die from inflation anyway. Obla De, Obla Da.
When you jettison the common good for infinite wealth you are evil. When all consuming greed and the whole world be damned, becomes your common ethos, you are evil. When regulators who's very existence is precisely to regulate against such fraud and outright violations as the housing bubble and all its fraud incarnate, turn a blind eye, they become evil.
When the very President of this nation is himself a serial fraudster, he becomes evil. Evil thy name is Bush, Clinton, Obama, Goldman Sachs, SEC, Federal Reserve and countless others that make your number legion.
This was not a "natural disaster" this was man made and there is blame enough for all. Let history not be rewritten, let these names not be forgotten. We should build a monument to TARP constructed entirely of millions of worthless aluminum pennies, perhaps in the shape of an extended middle finger, and on this shrine should be the names of all who accepted TARP, all who designed TARP and all who voted for TARP.
If you built a shrine with the middle finger. Trav7777's head would become so large not even ZH readers could handle him.
+ $750 Billion
Its a tough time to be a bear. Maybe when good news finally hits the wires there'll be a solid sell off. I dont know anymore. But seriously who is buying?
THOSE INFLATION NUMBERS SURE MAKE ME CONFIDENT MY SILVER INVESTMENT WILL
FLYYYYYYYYyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!
The verdict:
DJIA +28
NAZZ +12 ( "BTFD" )
S&P +1
"Nothing much to see here, folks. Next ?"
1) Continue physical accumulation.
2) Go long AGQ on margin. If they want to lend money so bad use it against them.
STFP-sell the fucking peak
Can volume go much lower?
...and there goes the market running up on the bad news. It is defo trying to price in QE3. I wonder what the banks are putting on this survey for QE3? My guess is $100T now.
Unbelievable! Confidence down owing to inflation expectations does not imply a green light for more QE, but what do I know, I'm not a computer...
But if you have a Phd in economics......
Yup. Dollar seems to have overhead resistance. Hit it, went back in the shitter, and market took off. CMG up 1.5%. Go fraud.
You have to just love that CMG action. If you watch it intraday, you can clearly see the mechanism, how the fraud works at the individual stock level...a true "pyramid" stock.
And if the SEC ever pulled the tape of trades the day after the last earnings CC...I am convinced a good many syndicate members would find themselves with notices...or perhaps agents "visiting."
Funny...it is almost like the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street somehow thinks we are all blind or something. And even more funny, the syndicate has somehow forgotten that its entire existence depends upon "trust."
Cue up Robo fraud with a 12 month chart filled with sound and fury, signifying nothing.
I dont see the market running up unless youre talking about gold.
Look at an intrady of SPX and look right at 10am what happened.
Dog,
I think Helluva was simply referring to the way the Roach Motel [SPY] jumped 3/4 of a buck in about 20 minutes...you know, so that syndicate members can dump underlying stock into the gaping maw of that sick, sick, ETF...that is supposed to represent the S&P 500 mind you.....LOL! Talk about striking right at the heart of the fraudulent equity market at Fraud Central, NY, NY.
But I don't think anyone really needs to worry about the market up and running away, because we all know that as soon as the underlying stock is dumped down the gaping maw of the Roach Motel, the syndicate will then be clear to ramp the Inverse Roach Motel while simultaneously naked short selling the Roach Motel into oblivion...for at least 20 minutes, thus showing everyone once again what a Ponzi scheme bunch of fuckwads the Criminal Syndicate Known As Wall Street really is.
Cue Jamie Dimon bitching about how hard it is to be a bailed out billionaire, while K. Finerman quivers about how hot he is, and all will be right with the world...and the American Dream won't be dead and in its grave or anything...no no...
Good grief [and by that I mean when will the layoffs finally be allowed to proceed from the now putrid financial services industry?]
Uh, no. Sad reality is it soundly and rsoundingly beat the whishper number.
Which was down around... oh.............. 2.
AP Headline "Stocks gain as confidence falls less than feared", when did the meme change from "better than expected".
Still 2 more trading days until the end of Q1...
Momos desperate to beat their "Lipper Averages" (whatever TF they are)...
Who cares about people, HFT will love QEx
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/29/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE72C...
"I think the market is beginning to believe that there will be no QE3," said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.
"We expect that ... the end of quantitative easing..." said Goldman Sachs in a report on Tuesday.
Ruse?
Great! Now the market will rally because the bulls in this market loves all news especially bad news.
Inflation in October of 08?
When peoples confidence is down they spend like drunken sailors! Buy gold to ward off the hyperinflation that always accompanies low consumer confidence!
Another nail in QE3 coffin ?
yup.
Nah, a sign that its working. Everything is a sign that its working.
Oh please.
Just watch all of the upcoming Q1 earnings "misses" and downward guidance revisions, and the equity rout that follows.
It's 2010 all over again.
Not from the fortune 500 companies pimping wears across the globe .... It's been 8 quarters of growth for most, Starbux, McD's, Pepsi, Exxon, Yum Brands, Macy's , Chipotle, Fluor ect .....
Less than half of those names you mentioned beat their Q1 "consensus," and ALL OF THEM revise expectations downward. Wanna take the other side of that bet?
"the Inflation Rate index surged"
Yipee! More WEALTH EFFECT!
Learn it... Know it... Live it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RUe02kPWvg
"Missed it by [ ] that much."
Agent Maxwell Smart
Cog, were ya benn boy!!!
Here....on a daily basis in the comment section. Just look and you shall find. Why mess around with articles when I can play in the sand box all day? :>)
Only Soviet style central planning can save us, comrades.
The only thing that will save us is deflation.
Does this means the Soviets won?
How do I subscribe to Pravda?
In Soviet Russia, Pravda subscribes to YOU.
they did have a cool logo...
I still don't understand how it could go wrong...
What, like on Facebook?
It's called the NY Times, comrade.
Why pay for my propaganda and indoctrination when I can get it for free elsewhere, comrade?
'We will let you hang yourselves by the rope you manufacture'!
Looks like that Russian leaders speech from 30 years ago was spot-on.
.
Isn't that rope manufactured in China these days?
NAFTA'd that factory. Actually Mexico probably makes it.
At best; assembled in the USA by Mexican labor, from Chinese parts.
Well, after you snip off all of the buds and leaves, may as well do something productive with the stems...that's praiseworthy industrial efficiency right there!
The slogan today would read: "We will sell the crapitalists the rope with which they hang themselves."
http://english.pravda.ru/photo/album/5991/
http://english.pravda.ru/world/africa/28-03-2011/117362-open_letter-0/
http://www.comcast.com/default.cspx
Price controls next. That will save us.
Next comes the public outcry at retailers for charging too much. Remember it is always imperative for outrage to be directed at the results and never the cause.
Well said.
ORI
Exactly. We are always allowed, even encouraged, to complain about the effects of the system. In fact, we are told we can do so because we are "free".
But don't ever question the system itself, just the admitted flaws. This in and of itself is the diversion that trumps them all.
<b>Price controls next. That will save us.
Next comes the public outcry at retailers for charging too much</b>
Oh no! You had to go say it!
Now a NFLX chart from Robo is imminent!
Head fake rally here.imo
I don't see stagflation in the housing sector. I see deflation.
Deflation in asset. No change in mortgage payment. CPI Fails again for 95% of population.
Wow...a perfect series of numbers after which the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street can once again, in HFT fashion, demonstrate how the equity market has zero credibility...thus further poisoning their own well, which is a necessary part of the sad, sad play that needs to carry on...until it ends in the mass liquidation of people from TBTF banks that no longer have meaningful business.
And then we can all start to heal. Until then, enjoy the show, one of completely obvious fraud, of many, many different flavors, all on display for even the most casual Average Joe observer of the markets to see.
Hello SEC...are you out there? Hello 4th estate...have you rediscovered your purpose yet? Hello J. Dimon...can we get some more whining today?
Jim Willie sez:
JAPAN TRIGGERS GLOBAL QE3
Continue QE and the junkie will die.
Stop QE and the junkie will die.
Take your pick.
It's been like that since Sept of 2008 although few people realized it.
Ive certainly been saying it here for a couple years.
3. Talk about ending QE2 early, whilst in secret prepare for QE3.
I have no idea what comes after this phoney routine, however.
EK,
The fear, the fear...
"Extremely low levels of radioactive iodine from the tsunami-hit Japanese nuclear plant have been detected in parts of the UK."
Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/japan-radioactivity-found-in-uk-15130252.html#ixzz1Hzx0zjXN
Have you been to Woking? Looks as if it's been hit by a nuke already. Nothing to lose.
I'm watching crappy issues like McGraw-Hill go completely vertical.
Now at 52-week highs....
Wow....
And the CANSLIM junkies are once again piling into "support" areas, hoping to catch those "cup and handle" and "flat base" breakouts...
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/postlist?topic_id=4140&Refer=http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/postlist%3ftopic_id%3d5860
The urge to speculate is higher than ever!
Thats OK theyll all suddenly be killed soon.
Not for me, and many of the people I know.
Better luck next generation.
Right on Robo. What is this consumer confidence i keep hearing about? Wasnt that a barrometer they used in the 80s? So fucking old school
Which means it is time to take profits and wait for a pull back, or go defensive.
I don't know about you fellas, but i'm rather astute... don't be shocked about what i'm about to say, but i'm starting to get a feeling this whole market/economy might be a sham/scam/ponzi.
I hope i'm wrong, i'll keep an eye out and let you all know if i see any more clues.
inconcievable
I do not think this word means, what you think it means.
anybody want a peanut?
I do not think that word is spelled the way he thinks it is. [/inigo]
When is that humble Italian immigrant going to get his Nobel in Economics? I mean Ponzi has influenced more economists than any Ivy Leaguer. I think we need to petition the Nobel Committee on his behalf. What do you say ZH'rs ?
I am so not giving a damn since I DO NOT TRADE ANYMORE! All clients and myself are OUT! We own physical PMs and some puts/calls and that's it! This shit can go anywhere I couldn't care less!
Good! Now go out and get a real job that produces something for society. The market keeps going up because all you traders are not siphoning off every one's retirement. That is the only thing that Bernanke is doing right. Absence of volatility makes it hard to be a leech. If you are investing in the market because you think it has good investment value then buy and hold. If you think it's a bad investment then stay out. But quit trying to steal from the working man by taking advantage of ups and downs in the market. I see a bunch of little leeches getting pissed off because the big leeches are not sharing any more.
You're saying get out of the market so all your stocks can go up. Leech hypocrite.
I feel very sorry for you dude! You did not get anything! You seem to be extremely
Frustrated! Don't know nothing about me but dare to judge! Rethink yourself!
Nothing personal against you per se. I just think people are being hypocrites who sit back and try to play casino with other people's retirement money, and then call the government leeches. Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black? If you think you are such a good gambler, go live in Vegas. At least in Vegas the people who lose know that they are gambling. Millions of people have their retirements in 401K's that are automatically buying stocks every week. Many people were automatically enrolled in the programs. The 401K managers make it a rule that these people are not allowed to try to time the market, they just have to let it ride for the most part. What makes it OK for other people to sit behind a computer and see how much of that money they can pull out? Like I said a lot of traders (gamblers) need to (gulp) try working for a living. If you think the working man owes you a living because you are so smart, then why don't you use your superior knowledge to invent something that will help your fellow man instead of hurting him?
:)
Good thing that Fed spokesdroid waffled on about cutting QE2 earlier today, so the Dollar could get pumped.
But they still haven't answered the question who on earth they expect to buy 10-yr at 3.5%, in an environment with rising inflation, if the Fed is no longer there to backstop Treasury sales.
I sense a major reduction in spending from the Federal gov't. Could Congress actually pass a budget that reduces Federal spending a shit load?
Cuts in Defence, Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, or other mandatory spending?
Otherwise it's kind of pointless.
That's why it's not going to happen
It started in Wisconsin. This madness of lavish pay for the union scum is ovvvvvvvvvvvvvvaaaa , bring on austerity, cut spending 10%, problem solved.
A 10% cut is nowhere near enough.
And benefits rise substantially over the next 5 years.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/31/opinion/la-ed-unfinished-20101231
And when the baby boomer die off they also stop drawing S.S. the long term chart changes.
So with this doubling, tripling of debt over the last few years, I wonder why the dollar has not crashed, thats right the debt is under control. USA still the strongest by far on the fiat block, always will be, the other crumble before her thats why they will always play the game ......
Right, so LA have intentionally planned for 20% of their budget to go towards benefits & healthcare for public sector workers in 2015? And the US spending 40% more than she gains through taxation, that's under control, too - even with an increasing retired boomer population?
The UK, with her many flaws, at least only spends (710/590) 20% more than she takes in. Of course, boomers are about to retire over here as well.
How do you feel about Wall St. scum?
They should be in jail, did you see inside job, great movie for the sheep who do not understand the inter workings .....
What about the lavish pay for federal employees? No one ever mentions that. If they cut everyone by 1/3 and capped it at 100,000 that would be a good start.
100% correct because they get what 80% of that after they stop working, a total joke .....
"Lavish pay" is on Wall Street.
There is no "Lavish Pay" beyond that.
Except for maybe doctors and lawyers.
When they take a pay cut wake me up.
plenty of people in NYC and SF making 150-300k working in tech...
"Lavish pay" is on Wall Street.
+1
I think you need to add professionals of all kinds and small-medium sized business owners to the list if your definition of lavish can extend that far... Virtually every tradesman I know makes more than the average attorney... likewise, medical professionals are solely dependent upon insurance income... when insurance comes in and pays less for the same procedures/care, then entire disciplines get swatted... also know quite a few doctors who have quit practicing in particular areas because of the squeeze...
In other words, you need to either pick a dollar threshold or a flat % of income relative to the average...
Pimco after the leash gets snapped or the other central banks. China does not want the fiat game to end or any other nation. Only the doomer sect ....
Well, I really want to grow wings and fly.
And...>BBBBBOOOOINNNNGGGG<
There goes the DOW and SPX dead ass vertical.
My god. When does this RIDICULOUS pumping f'ing end?
20 DOW points? Im not particularly impressed nor calling it 'vertical parabolic mass ramp' myself.
Velocity...and it isn't 20 DOW point, it's 60 peak to peak and, again, a huge jamming session.
It's Great Game of powerz. Beyond USA EU and all local markets.
After seeing all this scam since 2007, extend and pretend etc we are now at the point that not only banks are zombies - most of govrnments will be zombies soon!
Is there anybody, ANYBODY who still believes that all this is not rigged plot scenario? And that FED and utilities are making "wrong" moves, "not understanding" and blah blah blah
[Is there anybody, ANYBODY who still believes that all this is not rigged...]---ivana
Unfortunately, nearly EVERYONE I know are not even suspicious the market, govt data, corp accounting, banking, etc. are rigged. They can't imagine such a thing is happening.
Thanks for your post, ivana.
ivana asks -
Is there anybody, ANYBODY who still believes that all this is not rigged plot scenario? And that FED and utilities are making "wrong" moves, "not understanding" and blah blah blah
I've lost friends over this. First for telling them to get out. They thought I was nuts. Second they did'nt listen 'til too late.
?
I think when we get more spending reports like the last durable goods, the Fed will have to question QE3. We got the wealth effect, but a weak dollar and more expensive goods. We saw this reflected in spending by the wealthy, but ongoing declines in other areas like home purchases (the wealthy can't buy all the homes out there, and vacancy rates climbing). The Fed has backed into a corner, expecting their tactics to reboot the economy, but all it did was squeeze money through Wall Street and banks, and ultimately encourage misallocation of capital. Is anyone really surprised that confidence is still at lows?
Inflation, deflation, disflation, stagflation, henflation, foodflation, homeflation, gasflation...
It's a Flationary world people, let's just call it flation, since no one can agree which one is biting so hard that it hurts if you still have the capacity to feel.
That is my new mantra... It's a Flationary World. One day Dis and the other day In.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/28/for-dis-believers/
Psycho-Schizo-Bermudaflation (Max Keiser)
ORI, they sell something for that gasflation..try Malox! :)
hah! Burp!
ORI
What amazing/exciting news, it gives me a soft-on
That was funny!
ORI
Its checkmate for Ben and the Fed!!!
United Casinos of America. What would you expect, BTFD.
We're fucked ... checkmate ... game over ... tilt ... tits up.
Thanks Ben!
whats the rule, when you call checkmate and your opponent still has a workable move ?
A good opponent should be able to see checkmate 3 moves before it gets there. I usually just say 'check', then leave it to my opponent to recognize if it's checkmate or not.
That's not even new news!
The only person who has no idea about how bad it all is, is 'gentle Ben' - who is (as we speak) going to try the SAME fix that has failed to work on the last 2 occassions.
"The definition of madness is to try the same thing over and over again and expect different results" - Gerald Celente (talking about the Fed as it happens)
....now we should work out how we 'break it gently' to the sheepeople so they don't get all uppity and start rioting and shit.
You know people - all calm and that until it finally dawns on them and then it's mad killing and rage all over the shop.
It's news to the Fed, comrade.
'gentle Ben' has every clue what he is doing.
His whole idea is to keep the music playing as long as possible. For once the music stops there will be no chairs left in the room to sit down on.
Ben knows exactly how far she'll drop. If you had the chance to spend one more day with your grandparents before they passed, would you?
This is the same situation of trying to drag it out just a bit longer so that they (and we) can continue to enjoy our standard of living.
<b>now we should work out how we 'break it gently' to the sheepeople so they don't get all uppity and start rioting and shit</b>
I bet he's wishing now that he'd have MINORED in communication...
Deflation -
Until the banks have foreclosed upon and seized 90% of the nations homes, businesses, family farms, city monuments and state parks. THEN they'll turn the inflation machine back on.
Deflation in what? Home values and the dollar? Thats about all I see!
There will be no QE3, it's time to take the medicine.
Hey Bernank ya wanker, want some Sugar with that???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoDGwrYjfWs
Nooooooooo.....but Cramer told me to buy, buy, buy....just before he went bye, bye, bye!
lets be honest - stagflation was the obvious conclusion to this 'print your way out of recovery' nonsense. Anyone who thought differently will rightly get burnt.
It's just a shame all those pension funds which people 'trusted' are going to go down too.
All this destruction just to protect Blankenfien and his army of 'blank bankers'.
Corpo-fascism is upon us - fearlessness, honour and a determination to stay free will become the new attributes sought by the masse not the accumulation of wealth.
You can keep your phoney dollar bills - they're worthless.
Feel free to send them my way, since they're worthless and all. ;)
So you will take cash in addition to people's gold?
and here I am working, trying to conserve every inch of purchasing power I earn before she goes belly up.
Enough with QE, I say.
Print up 2 trillion, hand it out to every citizen, retire the national debt and personal debt. Reset.
Go back to facebook, you fucking 12 year old. Or have you pulled yet another 180 and want to sell your PM's again? In which case I'll gladly take all you've got.
Is that a real word?
In any case, that's the only thing that surprised me in this post.
Hate to take a grim victory lap (again): every passing day just confirms and reinforces my Biflation Theory: Real Economy Down/Paper Economy Up. Put another way, the Real Economy is in a deflationary depression very similar to Japan's lost double decade, while the the paper empire built by the Fed keeps exploding with bloat and paper profits (which, as we know all too well, can vanish in a flash-dance errrr crash).
So housing, real incomes, disposable incomes, employment and advancement opportunities, expected retirement funds, all contribute to a constrained consumer, unable to deal with increased structural cost of living.
Did you just ask how can depressed demand coexist along side with rising prices? Well, that , my friend, is the crux of the matter. Under biflation it CAN. I know, that's not orthodox economic theory. In fact it's iconoclastic (think Ben, Friedman and Reagan as a Russian icon tryptic). But it's all a side effect of massive intercurrent money printing summated with a 4-decade cumulative ocean of dollars floating freely in the global economy, competing for things to spend on. Nice going icons.
I don't care if the market is rigged or not.
I'm going to milk it for all that its worth.
If The Ben Bernank wants to put money in my pocket, I will gladly accept it.
I'm looking at some new longs today:
Nucor pays 3% dividend....
If it can clear the 11-day and 22-day, I'm in....
If Abbott Labs can clear this base, I'm all over it. It pays a yield of 4%.
Home Depot is one of the strongest stocks in the Dow, also pays a good dividend.
Only thing youve been milking for all its worth is your weenie you big troll.
You go girlfriend!
Where the men are men and the sheep are scared?
so buying home depot and abbott labs is the trick to being part of the 2% winners who school the 98% losers in the market.