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Well Integrity Test Has Now Started, But Oil Industry Experts Ask "What the Hell Are They Doing?"
Admiral Thad Allen just
announced that the well integrity test has gotten a green light.
For background on what this means, see this
and this.
The test has already started. You can watch live here.
As I noted yesterday, BP suspended the "top kill" operation for 16 hours - because, according to
numerous experts, it was creating more
damage to the well bore - without
even telling the media, local officials or the public that it
had even delayed the effort until long afterwards.
Similarly, it
took more than 5
hours for BP to publicly announce the delay of the well integrity
test after the decision to delay was made.
More importantly, oil
industry expert Rob Cavner - who has been right about virtually
everything so far, previously explaining
that there is damage in the oil well beneath the seafloor, and that BP
has to let the oil spill keep on gushing to avoid further damage to
the well bore until the well can be killed with relief wells
(subsequently confirmed
by BP) - now says that he is worried that the well integrity
test could further damage the well bore and could blow out the entire
well:ndustry expert
Rob Cavner - who has been right about virtually everything so far,
previously explaining
that there is damage in the oil well beneath the seafloor, and that BP
has to let the oil spill keep on gushing to avoid further damage to
the well bore until the well can be killed with relief wells
(subsequently confirmed
by BP) - now says that he is worried that the well integrity
test could further damage the well bore and could blow out the entire
well:
Recently-retired Shell Oil President John Hofmeister made a similar
point today:
I think the fundamental issue… is
there are serious concerns about the integrity of the casing that is
the well itself.
And that by putting the cap on and doing the
stress tests… that the integrity of the steel is insufficient to hold
the pressure of the well.
And if you lose the casing its game
over.
It’s like having a volcano on the bottom of the sea.
If
you lose the casing and oil starts coming up on the outside of the
casing you cant stop it.
There’s nothing you can do that would
stop it…other than implode the well.
There are many in the
industry that feel the casing must have been damaged because of the
power of that well, the pressure of that reservoir.
Hofmeister
stresses:
Let's not do the "stress tests" until we're
ready to go with the relief wells... Better have relief wells up and
operating before [you run any integrity tests].
And as Cavner points
out today, the government and BP are fooling around instead of killing off
this monster once and for all with the relief wells:
What?
Well integrity test? I've looked back through all of my notes,
blog entries, and reviewed BP's and the Unified Command's
communications. I've even done multiple internet searches, and found
the first mention of a "well integrity test" related to BP on this past
Sunday, July 11. Certainly I could have missed something, but I don't
recall even a single mention of what I consider to be probably the most
significant (and risky) operation BP has conducted since the much
hailed, and utterly failed, top kill procedure that kept the masses
enthralled during the Memorial Day weekend.
***
This
morning, we learned that, even thought the stack has now been set for 3
days, they actually haven't hooked up the two new valves. He also
announced that yesterday, they pulled all of the ships off site to run a
seismic survey, and, alarmingly, have stopped drilling the relief
well, which is now only 4 feet away laterally from the blowout well.
Since Dudley's letter to Adm. Allen last Friday laying out the relief
well timeline, they have made little progress and have only 34 more feet
to drill before they get to casing point for the last string of pipe. 34
feet, and they stopped. They're just sitting there circulating on
bottom at 17,840. Just sitting there. Wells claims that they are
doing that for "safety reasons" during the well integrity test. The
one they're not going to run for at least another 24 hours. What?I'm
sorry, but I have to ask, What the hell are they doing? We now
have an ability to capture all the oil and stop this massive pollution
of the Gulf (as well as measure it). We have great weather to get the
relief well completed. We already know, without the "well integrity
test", that they have severe damage to the BOP and other surface
equipment and casing. If that weren't true, the damn thing wouldn't
have blown out in the first place. We also know that between the
"capping stack" and the old BOP that there is a non-wellhead rated piece
of equipment, known
as the flex joint, along with the riser adapter,
that we've talked about before. This piece of equipment, that normally
sits above the BOP, is not rated to nearly those pressures
encountered by wellhead equipment. All of the other components in this
BOP are rated to at least 10,000 psi (new, off the shelf, and
undamaged); this piece is by far the weakest link in the chain,
especially since it took severe stresses as the rig sank and 5,000 feet
of riser torqued it as it sank. Yesterday, Adm. Allen announced they
were going to take the stack, including this flex joint, to as high as
9,000 psi for up to 48 hours. I have been unable to learn the model and
rating of the flex joint here, but Oil States advertises their LMRP
flex joints to be rated 600-6,000 psi, far below the 9,000 to which Adm
Allen said they would potentially go; even with the 2,200 psi of
hydrostatic pressure on the outside of the competent caused by it being
in 5,000 feet of water, it's still at least 1,000 psi differential
pressure over the rating of the component.Surely, I'm missing
something here, but all of this seems like reckless rope-a-dope in the
tradition of Muhammad Ali in his best rope-a-doping days. Either that,
or there are so many cooks in the kitchen that the pot is boiling over
while the chefs all stand around arguing about spices. Boxing and
cooking analogies aside, I don't think anyone is actually in charge, and
if anyone is, they are certainly not interested in giving any real
information.
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Surely they are putting their "Don't let a good crisis go to waste" philosophy into effect here. They really, really want to get Cap N Trade passed, the amount of money to be made from that is staggering.
There are two pools of money.
first is the pool of the carbon tax that OBammie has already spent so he needs it to balance his budget without taxing anyone.
then there are the trader profits from completing the many transactions to help the little guy comply.
and when it is over, the sun will still determine the temperature of the planet.
You need not entertain global warming to realize that the sun alone has never determined the temperature
Well - I'm going to weigh in with a few short points even though it will result in me being accused of "defending BP & the gov't" (I'm not). So first off let me state that I'm in agreement that things are not making sense with what we've been told.
The "Shell" quote above comes off like a 6-th grade level assessment. I don't know how else to describe it - the best example is going back to "implode the well". IF you think the reservoir pressures are so high they can keep a conduit open to the seafloor you're not going to set off an explosion to further fracture the contained horizons.
The Cavner quote has some very good points as do most of his comments - he has a great deal of industry experience and real contacts. However he also staked out a position very early to the far extreme so he would be the "go to" guy for his lefty buddies (Huff, MSNBC, Maddow et al - of course they love him anyway since he bundled $140K for the Obamatron). My argument with his quote is this - the TECHNICAL group engineering this thing is the absolute best in the business, the industry has 'loaned' its absolute very best and they are engineering this thing every way they can. The idea that they don't KNOW the burst rating of every bolt in that string or that they are IGNORING the rating of the BOP is flat-assed absurd.
I utterly agree with the guy that they are NOT releasing information that we need to know the truth of what's going on. I also believe we are now seeing the effects of "government committee" (the worst kind) decision making. However when people base their arguments on the absurd you have that fact color your assessment of the rest of their comments.
Any thoughts on the first comment by TenaciousG on GW's post, and the pictures therein?
If BP mgmt can override common sense, industry practice, etc. and conceal, bend/twist the truth, maximize shareholder benefits (and of course executive compensation) through means and goals incompatible with the safety and livelihood of (potentially tens of millions of) people -- could they not have two or more sets of engineering teams working in isolation from each other? One team works with CG, another works to cover tracks, destroy/bury evidence -- and a third one coordinates, or works on solutions and methods for maximizing oil capture rather than quickest staunching of the flow? The possibilities are endless.
You are right in assuming that BP KNOWS (or at least some part of BP knows) much or all of what can be known about the equipment. The question is, how widely is the ACCURATE info being shared among the public and private participants. And would the parties involved have the time/means to check the data provided by BP, unless there are concrete events which plainly contradict this data? If the info provided to the public is any gauge...
The subsea wellhead operations are far outside my expertise - I have no idea why they would be scraping that portion of the joint.
My point was precisely intended to be that the TEAM working THIS OPERATION knows those things because they are the best of the best. There is no doubt that they are reporting to managers and bureaucrats and I can't imagine how frustrating THAT must be. But the idea that somewhere in BP an engineer knows the burst rating of a piece of that wellhead but the TEAM doesn't is still absurd. That team will have everything it wants and they will not be making decisions in the absence of that kind of basic info. There is plenty to criticize but Cavner loses my respect because he gets carried away pandering to the ignorant.
I get your point. My read on what he said/wrote was that the actions undertaken by the 'spill response team' or by BP under the guidance of this wonderful committee do NOT square with the statements and explanations made public. I think his charge is not that BP engineers are dumb, misinformed, incompetent or lacking fundamental data. It is that a) there is no clear chain of command - thus responsibility is spread too thin for comfort, decisions are made inefficiently, and b) optics are the main consideration, certainly in terms of the order in which it is considered:
I think the government is now in charge and that everything above stems from that. I also have low respect for Cavner because I think he has been 'captured' by the lefty media into a set of positions that aren't reasonable.
You can know something and still ignore it if you sense that you have no choice but to go forward. BP and the gov are probably running out of options.
One need not be stupid to be reckless, one can just be desperate.
"Best in the business". I agree - B&C is the best of the best.
Yeah let's talk about censorship and information control people. George Washington posts some absolutely irresponsible drivel absent ANY research, and then when it is obvious that he didn't know what he was talking about ~POOF~ ... like it was never there.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/well-integrity-test-failing
Some hemorrhoid control material was applied. nonsense hanging from A$$ is not attractive and does not enhance the reputation. Well, in most circles it does not.
Ok, awesome. For a moment I thought I was going crazy thinking I read that post an hour or so ago and now I can't find it anywhere. Good to know it did in fact exist at some point. haha
Do you happen to know what the pressure gauges, viewable from the Hos ROV1 and ROV 2 streams, are (were) reading? I ask because I do not know specifically where pressure was being measured and displayed on that gauge at the time GW made that post.
Those gauges are measuring hydraulic pressure in various hydraulically actuated tools (valves, cylinders, etc) on the stack. The question was addressed here in the 0730 briefing:
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/downloads_pdfs/BPtranscript_tech_briefing07142010_0730CDT.pdf
Thanks. Not sure why someone flagged your reply as junk. It was entirely accurate and helpful.
In case there's still any question from anyone else:
"Jim Polson:
Kent, to follow up on that last question about people watching the ROV cams with baited breath. Are we going to be able to see anything that will indicate to us whether the test has started and how it’s going by looking at the ROV cams?
Kent Wells:
Yes, and thanks for asking that Jim. One thing I want to make sure people don’t – because I even saw it in the news last night. People still looking at pressure gauges and talking about that. The pressure sensing devices are what we call pressure transducers and they send a signal to the surface which are then are converted to their actual pressure readings. So we will not have ROV cameras on pressure gauges that will show what the pressures are during the tests. The pressure gauges you see are for our hydraulic equipment or (accumulators) et cetera like that. So-"
...oh. I see the GW article that was deleted is now back up and includes this quote at the end now.
Jim, there are several posts on the front page of ZH to which you forgot to copy this 'warning'...
Also, you object to some irresponsible drivel -- but you ALSO object to the author or the site admin having REMOVED said hypothetically irresponsible drivel? So what is the issue here, that you feel the opinion (i haven't seen it, cannot form opinion) is harmful? Or that the author should not have the right to retract?
The several front page articles that I "forgot" had nothing to do with the oil well-information-conspiracy-porn.
If BP had posted something and then pulled it, most of you would be heading for the bunker wearing your tin-foil hats.
now you are definitely diffusing criticism of the powerful admit it.
The fact of information suppression is just that, a fact, not a theory. If there are other pieces of data being overlooked or ignored by the press or these 'conspiracy-porn nuts', that are more optimistic, more favorable towards BP/oil industry/gov. experts/CG -- by all means please share.
It is the function and design feature of the players involved to withhold information from the public, to shape and control perceptions and opinions on a mass/global scale. The fact that it is not unexpected does not make it less infuriating. But what role, pray tell, should GW play if not the one he does -- which is to present his own opinion, along with the data used to form said opinion?
"But what role, pray tell, should GW play if not the one he does -- which is to present his own opinion, along with the data used to form said opinion?"
Ummmmm.... substantiated facts maybe?
GW - do you still stand by your post for several days ago in which you asserted that "most of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Workers have died and have a life expectancy of 51 years old", in which you linked to a youtube video of some blonde gal on CNN making such an idiotic claim?
Geo Wash has been subsumed by the special red methane under 100,000 psi that is leaking from the cavern as large as Mt. Everest and that will soon consume Miami.
The idea that the Exxon Valdez spill cleanup cause ten of thousands of ealy deaths is simply nonsense.
So your issue is with CNN and not GW then?
No. Should it be? Should GW be excused of posting unadulterated bullshit because his "beloved MSM" news source allowed an idiot to make an un-sourced (and untrue) claim? Does GW not have an obligation to at least research his source in the slightest before he uses that claim to buttress his argument(s)? Once it is pointed out to him that the information was bullshit, should he not retract it?
So far, he has chosen just to ignore it... probably wishing that he could just make it go away like he did his article of earlier this evening.
Well-said. . . It would be nice to have a "recommend" option opposite that "flag as junk" . I'd like to rec your posts and those of Augustus on this thread.
ok so what was it then....they have a life expectancy of 53 not 51?
Why don't you ask George Washingotn what it really is, since he would seem to be your preferred information source. I am curious if he will lie to you AGAIN.
Our beloved MSM frequently retracts, corrects and just plain disappears.
But bloggers can never do the same, because bloggers are bad.
Of course, the MSM may instead just focus on the "more important" stories:
And just to keep the record straight George, you did not retract or correct did you? You just made it disappear, after it was clear that you had done zero research and had no idea what you were writing about.
As GW said above the picture.
"Our beloved MSM frequently retracts, corrects and just plain disappears."
Yes, and as I stated, GW did not retract or correct. Nor did I accuse him of retracting or correcting. The fact that the "beloved MSM" may redact or correct is irrelevant to this instance.
Yes, I corrected.
Yes you did. The Obama White House has a job for you.
Yes, and when they do, it is not uncommon to hear "CONSPIRACY!!". Isn't it ironic.
WTF does that mean? I'm diffusing criticism of "the powerful" by pointing out that you are a hypocrite?
by your bringing of the conspiracy issue into it, you are in effect, defending the MSM. mmm...so what's the latest on ms. lohan? or did they retract that one?
I don't give a flying fuck about Ms. Lohan. I didn't bring MSM into this, George Washington did dipshit.
Anyone can make a mistake like that.
Besides, ZH can run it tomorrow when the well really does pop like a giant zit.
It's like a celebrity obituary, you can write this sort of thing in advance and still get it 90% right.
All along they've been acting as if they thought the casing was blown. "We don't risk plugging it up, it might blow."
Now all the sudden they are not. They want to pressurize the well.
The only thing compatible with all that is they intend to produce oil from it, and intended to from the start.
I would like to hear another reason for first leaving it open and then putting a tight cap on it.
Maybe BP need the well to blow up?
Pull down the One Big Score on CDS's, to get the Saudi Bribe Money for bringing down the US empire or just because some on-line psychic told the BP executives that "the sea turning into blood" would bring the End Of Days and Happiness To All Mankind.
In the present economic environment the incentives favor breaking things over creating by maybe a 1000:1!
Earlier today, the NEWS was reported the CAP (NEW ONE) had a stress fracture in it............
And, they were NOT going to lock it down because it was seeping.......
My question, is how the HELL do you send any NEW CAP down, that has not been Magnfluxed, and X-Rayed, prior to even sending it?..............I am a moron, and I would know to do those tests!.
Any metal product has gone through Multyple layers of quality control, examination and inspection, magnaflux is a brand name, the test is called magnetic partical testing,{MT}, this test was the very first method of Non-Destructive Testing or NDT, as early as 1868, it's used to test for surface cracks only.
Radiographic Testing, {RT} uses penatrating radiation to have a look at the internal structure of a material using X-Rays or Gamma radiation as a medium.
Pretty much any product used on that rig or any other has been tested many times from start to end product, this includes every part used in the well ie; casing, BOP's, drill pipe, all the piping and weldaments on the RIG, incuding the engines, pumps most metal parts have been inspected multiple times before it even leaves the mill.
I hold level 2 certification in both MT (mag) & RT (X & Gamma Ray) plus 18 + years in the Canadian drilling industry.
NDT is not fool proof . A Mojave desert power plant had a HoT Reheat steam line fishmouth and boil all the operators in the Control room to death . NDT tested and approved. Stress test polishing and xraying takes lots of time . Bet BP didn't do it as should have been . Short cut city in the Gulf still stands .
True NDT isn't fool proof, as composing a paragraph on one's puter isn't as well, BP and any other oil companys sub contract this out, it can still be ignored by the engineering team that orders the test. And is only as good as the Technician producing the report.
It had, and probably still is suggested / advised / recommended many years ago by the oil industry itself, and other interested parties to have one or two fully manned rigs ready to go at a moments notice, for the only real solution to this and most other BLOWOUTS of this flavor is a relief well or two, top fill rarely is successful.
My very first question is WHO vetoed this? ......I've heard that it was tricky Dick Chenney and his merry band.
Fixing BLAME may be entertaining.... I'm thinking fixing the problem will be better.....yes?
Any metal product has gone through Multiple layers of quality control, examination and inspection, magnaflux is a brand name, the test is called magnetic particle testing,{MT}, this test was the very first method of Non-Destructive Testing or NDT, as early as 1868, it's used to test for surface cracks only.
Radiographic Testing, {RT} uses penetrating radiation to have a look at the internal structure of a material using X-Rays or Gamma radiation as a medium.
Pretty much any product used on that rig or any other has been tested many times from start to end product, this includes every part used in the well ie; casing, BOP's, drill pipe, all the piping and weldaments on the RIG, incuding the engines, pumps most metal parts have been inspected multiple times before it even leaves the mill.
I hold level 2 certification in both MT (mag) & RT (X & Gamma Ray) plus 18 + years in the Canadian drilling industry.
Someone, somewhere made a bad weld. It hurts the time line. welders make mistakes and checks are not ALWAYS perfect. such is life.
Unlikely. Stress fractures take a while to develop in steel.
Maybe something coming unwound on the BoP itself, might entertain that one. But even then, not enough time.
Uhmm Google doesn't turn up that report - can you tell us where it came from?
I'm guessing you don't send one down that doesn't get tested - of course we've been hearing on this forum for a week that the only reason it "took them so long" to get the "off the shelf material" together was because they just didn't care..........
That was the conclusion of the oil expert Keith Olberman just a couple of days ago. He has made wells all over the world and never leaked a drop of oil. You don't hear about it because he just drills the wells and gives the oil to the local people.
Olberman's guest said BP's primary goal with the stress test may be to cap this thing ASAP so the true amount of oil escaped/escaping cannot be accurately measured. If they let the oil flow from the relief well the whole world will know how much they've dumped into our earth's ocean.