This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The "Well Integrity Test" Is a Sham: "This Bet Is Against The Citizens Of The United States Of America Being Smart Enough To Figure Any Of This Out"
Yesterday, I pointed
out that two oil industry experts - Robert Cavner and former Shell
CEO John Hofmeister - said that the "well integrity test" should not be
conducted because there is no benefit, and it could very well blow out
the well.
Cavner thinks
that the well integrity tests are really an attempt by BP to
underestimate the amount of oil gushing out - and so pay lower fines
under the Clean Water Act (fines are calculated by the number
of barrels leaking into the Gulf) - by waiting to "test" the flow
until the flow has been reduced. In the real world, of course, BP could
have tested the flow from
day one.
Today, an oil and gas industry veteran with 30 years
experience who goes by the alias Fishgrease says
that the well integrity test is a PR stunt meant to fool the American
people:
Yesterday, Our Government bought in to BP's
lies and maneuvering. Yesterday, Our Government approved the Integrity
Test. That test is now underway.***
We later
received information that the Oil States FlexJoint actually in place is
a Model 5, and therefore has a MWP (maximum working pressure) of 5000
psi. So now, the pressures Our Government has signed off on applying,
are at least 2,000 psi differential pressure over the rating of the
component!
***
I've been battling comments that, surely, this component has a
"safety allowance" well above its rating. Boomers, this is pure
horseshit. When you're pressuring up against metal with hydrocarbons,
the "maximum" in "maximum working pressure" fucking means MAXIMUM.
Purposefully exceeding MWP is, in fact, criminally actionable. MWP is
enforced in the Oil & Gas industry with perfect vigor. There is no
tolerance for exceeding MWP. None. Never. Ever.
You. Don't.
Fucking. Do. It
BP is PLANNING on doing it! They would not and
could not do it without the U.S. Government taking full responsibility,
in the name of Thad Allen, for the consequences of over-pressuring the
FlexJoint.***
That's alarming enough, but there are many
bad things that can happen when you're just sitting there circulating
on bottom at 17,840... FOR DAYS. Now that they're having problems with
the choke on the capping stack, it might easily be DAYS AND DAYS. You
can lose circulation and get stuck. You can lose a mud pump for a
matter of minutes and get stuck. You can lose the section of un-cased
hole you just drilled (which is at a critical point for the intercept)
and make directional control much more difficult getting it
back. There are more, and worse things that could happen, but I
won't mention them because the crew and equipment on that relief well
are the absolute best, and none of those worse things will
happen.
But why take these risks? For what? The first relief
well is SO close (now stopped)! They have the ability to capture and
measure ALL the oil! We already KNOW there is damage downhole! Why
would the Government of the United States of America sign off on, and
take responsibility for this foolishness?
***
I need to include here that I think this "test"
is probably a good political and public relations bet for both the
Obama administration and BP. It's really not a test at all and has no
chance of actually testing anything about the well, except their
ability to shut it in with no surface leaks. They want to shut in the
well and get it off the nightly news. They want that so badly they're
willing to risk anything for it. That's both BP and Our Government.
They shut in the well and Thad Allen is a hero. They fail and he's no
more of a moron than he has been for the last three months. If they
succeed in shutting it in or not, any damage they've done in the "test"
that makes the kill operation more difficult, or even impossible, will
be a matter of opinion. This bet is against the citizens of the United
States of America being smart enough to figure any of this out. It's
not a bet on actual physical outcomes. It has nothing at all to do with
what's the best plan for stopping this disaster.
Politics. Public Relations.
Indeed, the well integrity test is exactly like the stress test for the
banks: a meaningless PR stunt devised by the industry itself with the
blessing of government. See this
and this.
»
- advertisements -
It's not gushing anymore
3:51 PM
http://www.jtnog.org/
Does GW still get to keep his Pulitzer?
Jim, I assume by your response that you are of the opinion that it has stopped.
I do not have any evidence to suggest otherwise. Do you?
The well is shut down as of 2:25CDT.
This begins the pressure test, right? It can take up to 48 hours.
Correct.
I am not qualified to sort out this mess, but one idea I do find appealing is that BP would like to cap the well and pump from it, not plug it forever, environment and gulf residents be damned. That's a lot of potential $ sitting in the ground.
When the relief well thing was first mentioned and the process begun, I just had a gut feeling that it wouldn't work.
So now, we have this BS pressure test and new cap. As previous posts mentioned why go this route if the relief well is supposedly so close to done. If I recall they were saying the relief well could be done by July 27th. Something isn't adding up here.
One would assume that jackass Obama would want this thing plugged as soon as possible. Does a president so beaten and battered really want oil spillin' for the next year. Pretty clearly already mishandled the spill.
No doubt. Theay are trying to cap it for two months then all of the sudden it's "Well if you cap it the pressure might start blowing out through vents all over the place". What kind of insane bullshit is that??
So clearly they just want the oil to keep flowing into the Gulf. I wish someone could tell me why? Soon you will neet to bring a certified net worth statement with you to get into a decent fish resaraunt.
it's a religious mandate, see the the talmud and old testament.
http://www.talmudunmasked.com/chapter15.htm
Kill every living. Do not spare any:
• They destroyed with the sword every living thing in it—men and women, young and old, donkeys, etc…
• Go and totally destroy everything. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, donkeys, etc...
• Kill men and women, children and infants, and donkeys, etc…
Joshua 6:21
"They devoted the city to the LORD and destroyed with the sword every living thing in it—men and women, young and old, cattle, sheep and donkeys."
1 Samuel 15:3
"Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy everything that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys.' "
1 Samuel 22:19
"He also put to the sword Nob, the town of the priests, with its men and women, its children and infants, and its cattle, donkeys and sheep."
1 Samuel 27:9
does that sound like the lord or lucifer?
Ripped Chunk
"So clearly they just want the oil to keep flowing into the Gulf. I wish someone could tell me why?"
Dude they have hopes of actually using that well in the future. They need to recoup their losses.
Greed is one of the worlds great motivators.
There are some bright people on this blog, thanks for schooling me. I don't remember reading, what % of BP's total oil output did this well produce? Unless it was a high percentage, it's hard to imagine they would risk the unbelievable criticism they would get if they "saved" the well for the production and it later f**cked up. Again, this is just an observation, I know very little about the subject.
They intend to produce from the well, and always have. Anything that could top-kill the well "didn't work" boo hoo, and just as the 99% effective bottom kill is within a week of killing the thing, they stall that to see if they can cap the well.
They intend to produce from the well.
Well fuckin' A! Why wouldn't everyone want that well producing? There's a lot of oil down there.
Since you asked, it's GEORGE WASHINGTON bullshit!
What's your problem bitch?
Indeed.
At least we know the level of integrity of the company charged with stopping the leak.
BP Faces Scrutiny in Lockerbie Case Published: July 15, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/world/europe/16britain.html?_r=1
Kudos! Strip mining sheeple for dollars!! Wonder if we look into the future the earth looks like a raisin sucked dry for all it's worth and an abused planet hurling into the suns center for vaporization!! Other than that, it's certain we'll find a way to survive in the next 90 days or so as we pass directly into the gaping jaws of carp AmeriCON'd!!
One thing that has not made sense to me is that if they are so close to completing the relief wells and since they were doing quite well with the recovery operation even before Helix came on the scene, why would they be diverting so much of their (and everyone's) focus to the installation of a new cap?
I agree that it is positive that they are working on more than one solution simultaneously but with recovery operations on hold and the obvious concerns/risks related to this undertaking would they not have been better off continuing to optimize the recovery operation with a view to completion of the relief wells?
The RW kills the well. The cap does not kill the well.
That's all you need to know to understand why they want to CAP the well before they try to KILL it.
They cap it, even poorly, they can produce from it.
They kill it, it's gone and they probably don't get a good chance to start over in the GoM.
Transparent money play. Nothing they are doing is even remotely out of character. Thad Allen being a private citizen as of this week, makes him that much easier to buy manage.
Probably because someone in the "regulatory sector" has friends who make money by continuing with the cap. (/cynicism off)
why not liquidate bp?
http://covert2.wordpress.com
Even if the casing is not currently compromised - as indicated by the higher psi - that same said high psi is more likely to manifest leakage if the well-head is capped.
The fact that BP is even contemplating capping this thing might suggest that they're having reservations about the relief well(s). Imho, BP is low-balling the hell out of the true pressures being recorded down below.
Thoreau,
YES!
As a working Engineer, (in another field but we all have the same basic foundation) I have to call a bullshit on the maximum working pressure panic above. When rating working pressures, loads, and such we Engineers use safety factors which account for deteriation over time, repeated cycles of loading, etc. The maximum working pressure is very likely 2 or 3 times lower than what the equipment will take when it is new.
cycle...:
I also spent most of my working life various organizations doing "R&D" or engineering problem solving work as well. If, the specs for the equipment are as claimed by the principals, they might squeak through. But individual components tested in the full environment are one thing; assemblies of otherwise reliable components are another.
My life experience (big 75 coming up in a few weeks) is that again and again, in technology limit testing emergency situations there seems always an organizational entity or at least a few ambitious individuals who will claim to have a solutions that sound perfectly logical but have unknown boundary conditions. Their claims cannot be proved or disproved without a lot of theoretical work.
Sometimes, the risk approach, pushing an envelope, even works and something new is learned. But the price of failure should be rationally weighed.
Apparently, this problem was created in the first place, people were killed, not to mention the environmental and economic damage, by "pushing the envelope". For the familys left behind, the loss is forever.
My best advice to people who are going to be an engineer, is; “Don’t Fake It.” In some organizations, erroneous assertion is a social sin. When you are looking for a job, that is one thing to look for.
"We" engineers do not over-design by factors of 2x or 3x; unless we willingly want to lose clients and our jobs. Yes, safety factors are built in; but cost is built in as well, and obviously took precedence in this case by virtue of the well-head failing with enough force to eventually bring down the entire rig.
You do realize that we got into this mess because of an engineering FAILURE? Just asking...
Do engineers routinely disobey orders given by management?
Yes, they do.
Not if management is willing to put their stamp on the design.
Not only that, the working pressure is at sea level with an ambient pressure of 1 ATM. However, BP, the Coast Guard, and God Almighty himself have conspired to place the flex joint some 5000 ft below the surface of the ocean. At this point I'll let the tin-foil-hat crowd google up a youtube video that will explain it to them.
<HINT> "differential pressure"
As a retired engineer, I second that statement. And God, please send a terminal and universal plague upon all (i.e. "George Washington") who pontificate upon engineering subjects when they actually know less than zero about engineering, other than the "engineering" of political outcomes which benefit them and their fellow travellers.
Actually, you don't sound anything like an engineer. Maybe you rubbed shoulders with some real engineers. What were you really, PR or something?
Merlin, you sound like Kartik Athreya.
realistically, capping the well and producing from the well should acheive the same headline
"No more oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico"
shouldn't it?
>Or maybe nobody thinks our government will hold them accountable?
Bingo.
I don't get why the stock is trading so high. Regardless if they can shut it off now or in another month with the relief wells, does nobody think that the amount of oil already leaked is enough to BK this company? Or maybe nobody thinks our government will hold them accountable?
Exxon and Shell waiting in the wings to buy
Not sure how they get around the liability issues if they buy the company. Instead they could buy the assets and contracts, which would bring a nice penny to BP execs and shareholders. The "company" is left holding the bag as the money walks away.
Leave a corporate shell, stiff-arm the litigants for 45 years, keep a flotilla of lawyers employed for that long siphoning off the money and life-force of 3 states and thousands of people. "BP litigant" will become a job description, like "police officer".
The govt could always zero the stockholders and debt holders, and give the company to its workers and pensiors, albeit with a government appointed puppet running the thing. But there's no precedent for that is there? That'd it be, be, what is the word, unconstitutional...seizing property without due process, outside of constitutionally provisioned bankruptcy. Couldn't happen here, so what the hell am I talking about already.
viper squidding goon suckers running the brit pee prop desk will have that answer why it's defying gravity and all the paper chasers are on the wrong side of it; to their absolute horror!! As the futures turn/spin in dark rat bat thin vol night trading where we retailers have no entry/exit!! Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! No billionaire boyz club here!!
i think all along they were trying to figure a way to save the well .. not stop it
they're risking something really bad going wrong in order to salvage this thing and should just proceed to plug it forever
Choosing not to act is stil an (in)action.
Yep
If you choose not to act, you still have made a choice..
PS- Can't wait for the Moving Pictures tour
Geez, even the lamest RUSH fan knows that it's "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."
Sing the song in your head.
Someone has read Albert Camus.
RUSH dude.
Freewill, bitchez.