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Well That Was Quick: Goldman Goes Long Crude, Raises 12 Month Brent Forecast To $130/bbl

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Anyone remember that rapid succession of brent downgrades by Goldman last month which did nothing until the CME and the administration launched an all out war on speculators a relentless barage of crude margin hikes? Well, uber momo Goldman sure doesn't. Just out from David Greely: "While near-term downside risk remains as the oil market negotiates the slowdown in the pace of world economic growth, we believe that the market will continue to tighten to critical levels by 2012, pushing oil prices substantially higher to restrain demand. Events in the Middle East and North Africa are having a persistent impact, which leads us to increase our oil price targets We expect that the ongoing loss of Libyan production and disappointing non-OPEC production will continue to tighten the oil market to critically tight levels in early 2012, with rising industry cost pressures likely to be felt this year. We are now embedding in our forecasts that Libyan production losses will lead to the effective exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity by early 2012. Consequently, we are raising our Brent crude oil price forecast to $115/bbl, $120/bbl, and $130/bbl on a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon." Welcome back volatility. CME petroleum product margin reduction in 5...4...3...

As a reminder for those long ago days of April 12, 2011:

While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight

The unfolding events in North Africa and the Middle East have pushed up Brent crude oil from $100/bbl in mid-February to over $125/bbl last Friday. These high prices levels invite comparison to the spring of 2008, when crude oil prices first breached these levels in May before peaking at over $145/bbl by early July. We believe that there are fundamental differences between now and the spring of 2008: Both inventories and spare capacity are much higher now and net speculative positions are four times as high as in June 2008.

And there you have it: so much has changed in the past 6 weeks. So much.

Goldman Crude 5.23

 

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Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:34 | 1303430 mynhair
mynhair's picture

No margin increase from the CME?  So disappointed....

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:36 | 1303439 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

They really think we are going to fall for this? I'm going to bet against them on this one.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:01 | 1303532 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Chess or checkers?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:14 | 1304070 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

why do i get a mental image of the scarecrow from the wizard of oz propped on his post with his arms crossed in front of himself and pointing in both directions? 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:50 | 1304146 tired1
tired1's picture

If you haven't yet, look into the story behind 'The Wizard of Oz'. Hint: Oz = Ag

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:29 | 1304108 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Tic tac toe

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:32 | 1303633 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

But peak oil. Don't forget peak oil! Peak oil arrived years ago. Peak oil everyone! Peak oil will make prices go higher. Peak oil because there is just not enough oil. Peak oil. Peak oil is here.

Let's have a panic party for Peak oil!

~O~

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:11 | 1303760 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you guys haven't figured out yet why the growth system ground to such an abrupt halt, have you?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:24 | 1303781 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Shut up Trav. I will not entertain any more comments from you regarding this topic. EOF.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:40 | 1303821 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I like to be entertained.  More trav please.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:48 | 1303844 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I like Trav also ....

He always makes T. ( Seventh-Day Adventist Pepperoni Doomer™ Sect ) Mosley look like a fool ....

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:36 | 1303979 tmosley
tmosley's picture

As I said in the other thread, only through the biased viewpoint of those with shit for brains.

So yeah, you would think that.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:53 | 1304025 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

but I did finger it out trav.... got nuthin' to do with oil. It's called SATURATION. When you can't cram not even one more pissy strip mall onto the ground, CRE vacancies balooning, built too fuckn' many fuckin' Mcmansions, everybody's already got 6 fuckin' TV's, 3 fuckin' cars, and etc. Need more?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 07:19 | 1304445 schizo321437
schizo321437's picture

.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:56 | 1304033 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

duplicate

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:50 | 1304144 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

So if the past is any indication (2008) , then when oi hits $150 - $200,

(the trigger) the insiders sell the bond market to hell. 

 

In 2008, it was the stock market that crashed.

Now it will be the bond market. Overnight.

It will be called in history books "the Big Short"

I would nt be surprise though if the stock market stays strong,m to 36,000.

 

Its like 2 poker player left at the world series of.....

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:40 | 1303454 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

That means the commodity long is back in fashion. That was a quick costume change !

Wardrobe revamp !

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:41 | 1303460 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Nefarious strategery or incompetence.  Hmmm, I  wonder which?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:41 | 1303463 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The setup for the next big con. Talky Talky Push Push that dollar down !! Too bad the Euro will have a tough time cooperating.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:47 | 1303474 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Who knows.  Some DS in DC may choke on his foot tomorrow.  It's why I didn't jump back on USDHUF after this morning.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:48 | 1303480 Blorf
Blorf's picture

Everyone please bail us out from the long positions we took when we recommended selling crude. Thanks, The Squid

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:47 | 1303488 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

its all about that evil demand thing

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:50 | 1303490 steve.stuart
steve.stuart's picture

Goldman Sachs ....what a bunch of crooks ..they made the public panic and sell crude at $98 and now they are increasing the targe to $130.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:52 | 1303707 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

The only people that panicked were the f*tards that believed Goldman.  Anyone trading based on what the squid recommends needs a kick in the nads to wake them out of their stupor.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:55 | 1303509 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Goldman said oil was going to two hundred during the last peak, while at the same time they were selling fixed rate oil contracts (at the top) to chinese air lines.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:52 | 1303510 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Probably means gasoline is going to crash.

Already in L.A., prices are rolling over hard.

http://www.losangelesgasprices.com/Retail_Price_Chart.aspx

We are back under $4/gallon again in my neighborhood ARCO station.

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:54 | 1303517 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

yeah don't forget during the last peak goldman called for oil over  200 hundred but was willing to sell fixed rate contracts to chinese air lines and others starting at 135 and up to 150.  Have you all forgotten how China threatened to abrogate those oil contracts?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:58 | 1303531 mynhair
mynhair's picture

ARCO still exists?  Not here in the East.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:28 | 1303630 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Diesel under $3.80 in Elk Grove Village ( the largest industrial park in the U.S.A. )

 

Booyah'

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:33 | 1303650 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You're celebrating $3.80?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:10 | 1303711 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

It was $4.25 ( at that station ) and in most towns $4.50 was the norm 4 weeks ago ....

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:57 | 1304157 tired1
tired1's picture

There's a guy I know (cough) that ran a pump and hose from the fuel tank in the basement to the outside of the house. It had a filling nozzle and a switch so the pump could be activated from the outside. That way he could shop around for the best price on home heating oil and save a lot of money.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:42 | 1303994 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He's not the sharpest knife in the drawer.  He's opening an IMPORT business with the dollar at the lowest levels it has ever been at.

But then, that probably just means he's hanging around his local liquor store buying tequila and Heinekens for high schoolers.  lol

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:35 | 1303645 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

$4.24 today in Palo Alto. No sign of the roll over.

~O~

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:55 | 1303721 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

Don't all you Californians drive Smartcars and Priuses anyway?  What's the big deal?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:17 | 1303748 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

We drive our Pontiac Aztec's to our .gov jobs (at the central unintelligent agency).

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:54 | 1303511 russki standart
russki standart's picture

It is obvious, the prop desk at GS needs to unload oil contracts so they need suckers to buy. 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:43 | 1303674 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture

Oil poised for another leg down over next few weeks?

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:52 | 1303513 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Confirmed.

This is not from The Onion.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:58 | 1303514 MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

So when is Gensler going to enact position limits such that GS will find some prospects less doable......

 

You know....that little hold up at the straight up CFTC.....

 

They are getting as bad as the SEC....

 

You know the 

 

S ecure 

E mployees

C ompensation

 

So 

 

C orporate 

F raud

T echnical 

C enter

 

Would stand for ....??????

 

Must be that the CFTC wants some of that GS SEC revolving employment door real pay love.....

 

 

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 19:59 | 1303538 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

This means the FED will stomp on Commodities again.. short Oil!

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:01 | 1303543 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
Equities at a very important crossroads

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:05 | 1303547 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:05 | 1303548 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

From DJN time: 19:33: "Senators endorse military engagement in Libya"

 

Here we go ...........

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:14 | 1303590 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Where did all the Lib Bush haters go?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:03 | 1303553 Kokulakai
Kokulakai's picture

Does GS ever make money for their clients?

Or do they use their clients to make money?

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:11 | 1303577 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

goldman has no clients anymore, just counterparties.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:48 | 1304019 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

they cluck their fients

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:03 | 1303554 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:03 | 1303555 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:06 | 1303557 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:07 | 1303558 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

From DJN time: 19:33: "Senators endorse military engagement in Libya"

 

Here we go ...........

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:05 | 1303562 JohnG
JohnG's picture

OT - But you have to see this it's funny as anything I've seen ina while:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=186715

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:06 | 1303569 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Eventually GS will have to accept reality.

Price is not informative about a commodity that is scarce and getting scarcer.  A higher price does not change the quantity of oil underground, nor does it change how deep it is.  Price might make some marginal production methods more usable, but only marginally.

We have never seen this movie before.  There is no history.  This world, one of scarce oil, has never existed before.  For most people alive today, they have very little time left to live.  The US will never accept lower GDP so that a Chinese person can have a lifestyle increase.  War is inevitable and billions will die -- not so much in the war but as a result of the destroyed transport networks.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:41 | 1303660 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

China will never invade the US and the day the US touches a hostile foot on their soil it's game fucking over.

Smackdown extraordinaire.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:05 | 1303751 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

ICBMs and nuclear warheads are a great deal less expensive than a division of soldiers' salaries.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:11 | 1303755 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Keep dreaming. It'll never happen.

~O~

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:34 | 1303818 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

We touched their soil all the time during the Korean war.

We snuck over the Yalu and bombed their air force, troops, etc.

We destroyed ten chinese divisions during our advance to the rear.

Estimated casualty loss of Chinese volunteers was one million.

I think it is pretty clear what will happen if there is another war.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:51 | 1303848 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

That was then, this is now.

~D'jean Splicer

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:44 | 1303999 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This seems to be your main problem.  You are continuously fighting the last war in all aspects of your life.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:16 | 1303587 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

$130 oil in 12 mos = President Romney

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:19 | 1303596 mynhair
mynhair's picture

$130 oil in 12 months = President Cain, there, fixed it for you.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 04:10 | 1304355 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Don't blame me, I voted for President Abel! :>D

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:27 | 1303623 AladdinSaneGirl
AladdinSaneGirl's picture

Wow Tyler has saved my skin tonight with this info. Been worried sick about some oil shares which dropped 45% in last 2 weeks. This should lift them. Mind you, hate myself for hanging onto the coattails of whoever's setting such volatile targets ... looks like cynical manipulation, somebody is making a fortune :S

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:42 | 1303671 mynhair
mynhair's picture

SSN?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:25 | 1303626 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

One black oil covered swan away from the next major oil price shock!  Can't wait!

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 20:42 | 1303662 gkm
gkm's picture

Coming soon to a market near you:  John Belushi, as Goldman Sachs, yelling "SUPER SPIKE".  The zanniness that follows is your's to enjoy.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 21:37 | 1303822 buzzsaw99
Mon, 05/23/2011 - 22:31 | 1303955 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The only way that happens is if QE3 is in the cards.

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:05 | 1304059 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

kind of reminds me of that $200 price target before it nosedived to $35

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:21 | 1304087 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

Thanks Zero for you DD and help with us little guys...

Dave

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 23:23 | 1304091 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

hahahha....supply and demand is so 1999.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 00:37 | 1304189 ivana
ivana's picture

yeah . oil MUST stay high to keep the scam going and lay foundation for final endgame

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 05:08 | 1304386 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

Either GS *knows*  that QE3 is coming,  or they have some oil to sell.  I wish I knew that too.

 

 

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 06:03 | 1304401 ivars
ivars's picture

115 Brent is conservative . It will happen in 2 months- and so the rest will happen faster, according to this old Feb. 6th forecast which has been correct so far:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0#p30486

and its improved May 6 version:

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 06:45 | 1304420 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Please. Oil @ 130+ in 12 months coming into election campaign madness? These guys are trying to line up longs for a slaughter. Fuck these clowns. Whatever they say, do the opposite.

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