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Well That Was Quick: Goldman Goes Long Crude, Raises 12 Month Brent Forecast To $130/bbl
Anyone remember that rapid succession of brent downgrades by Goldman last month which did nothing until the CME and the administration launched an all out war on speculators a relentless barage of crude margin hikes? Well, uber momo Goldman sure doesn't. Just out from David Greely: "While near-term downside risk remains as the oil market negotiates the slowdown in the pace of world economic growth, we believe that the market will continue to tighten to critical levels by 2012, pushing oil prices substantially higher to restrain demand. Events in the Middle East and North Africa are having a persistent impact, which leads us to increase our oil price targets We expect that the ongoing loss of Libyan production and disappointing non-OPEC production will continue to tighten the oil market to critically tight levels in early 2012, with rising industry cost pressures likely to be felt this year. We are now embedding in our forecasts that Libyan production losses will lead to the effective exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity by early 2012. Consequently, we are raising our Brent crude oil price forecast to $115/bbl, $120/bbl, and $130/bbl on a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon." Welcome back volatility. CME petroleum product margin reduction in 5...4...3...
As a reminder for those long ago days of April 12, 2011:
While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight
The unfolding events in North Africa and the Middle East have pushed up Brent crude oil from $100/bbl in mid-February to over $125/bbl last Friday. These high prices levels invite comparison to the spring of 2008, when crude oil prices first breached these levels in May before peaking at over $145/bbl by early July. We believe that there are fundamental differences between now and the spring of 2008: Both inventories and spare capacity are much higher now and net speculative positions are four times as high as in June 2008.
And there you have it: so much has changed in the past 6 weeks. So much.
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No margin increase from the CME? So disappointed....
They really think we are going to fall for this? I'm going to bet against them on this one.
Chess or checkers?
why do i get a mental image of the scarecrow from the wizard of oz propped on his post with his arms crossed in front of himself and pointing in both directions?
If you haven't yet, look into the story behind 'The Wizard of Oz'. Hint: Oz = Ag
Tic tac toe
But peak oil. Don't forget peak oil! Peak oil arrived years ago. Peak oil everyone! Peak oil will make prices go higher. Peak oil because there is just not enough oil. Peak oil. Peak oil is here.
Let's have a panic party for Peak oil!
~O~
you guys haven't figured out yet why the growth system ground to such an abrupt halt, have you?
Shut up Trav. I will not entertain any more comments from you regarding this topic. EOF.
I like to be entertained. More trav please.
I like Trav also ....
He always makes T. ( Seventh-Day Adventist Pepperoni Doomer™ Sect ) Mosley look like a fool ....
As I said in the other thread, only through the biased viewpoint of those with shit for brains.
So yeah, you would think that.
but I did finger it out trav.... got nuthin' to do with oil. It's called SATURATION. When you can't cram not even one more pissy strip mall onto the ground, CRE vacancies balooning, built too fuckn' many fuckin' Mcmansions, everybody's already got 6 fuckin' TV's, 3 fuckin' cars, and etc. Need more?
.
duplicate
So if the past is any indication (2008) , then when oi hits $150 - $200,
(the trigger) the insiders sell the bond market to hell.
In 2008, it was the stock market that crashed.
Now it will be the bond market. Overnight.
It will be called in history books "the Big Short"
I would nt be surprise though if the stock market stays strong,m to 36,000.
Its like 2 poker player left at the world series of.....
That means the commodity long is back in fashion. That was a quick costume change !
Wardrobe revamp !
Nefarious strategery or incompetence. Hmmm, I wonder which?
The setup for the next big con. Talky Talky Push Push that dollar down !! Too bad the Euro will have a tough time cooperating.
Who knows. Some DS in DC may choke on his foot tomorrow. It's why I didn't jump back on USDHUF after this morning.
Everyone please bail us out from the long positions we took when we recommended selling crude. Thanks, The Squid
its all about that evil demand thing
Goldman Sachs ....what a bunch of crooks ..they made the public panic and sell crude at $98 and now they are increasing the targe to $130.
The only people that panicked were the f*tards that believed Goldman. Anyone trading based on what the squid recommends needs a kick in the nads to wake them out of their stupor.
Goldman said oil was going to two hundred during the last peak, while at the same time they were selling fixed rate oil contracts (at the top) to chinese air lines.
Probably means gasoline is going to crash.
Already in L.A., prices are rolling over hard.
http://www.losangelesgasprices.com/Retail_Price_Chart.aspx
We are back under $4/gallon again in my neighborhood ARCO station.
yeah don't forget during the last peak goldman called for oil over 200 hundred but was willing to sell fixed rate contracts to chinese air lines and others starting at 135 and up to 150. Have you all forgotten how China threatened to abrogate those oil contracts?
ARCO still exists? Not here in the East.
Diesel under $3.80 in Elk Grove Village ( the largest industrial park in the U.S.A. )
Booyah'
You're celebrating $3.80?
It was $4.25 ( at that station ) and in most towns $4.50 was the norm 4 weeks ago ....
There's a guy I know (cough) that ran a pump and hose from the fuel tank in the basement to the outside of the house. It had a filling nozzle and a switch so the pump could be activated from the outside. That way he could shop around for the best price on home heating oil and save a lot of money.
He's not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He's opening an IMPORT business with the dollar at the lowest levels it has ever been at.
But then, that probably just means he's hanging around his local liquor store buying tequila and Heinekens for high schoolers. lol
$4.24 today in Palo Alto. No sign of the roll over.
~O~
Don't all you Californians drive Smartcars and Priuses anyway? What's the big deal?
We drive our Pontiac Aztec's to our .gov jobs (at the central unintelligent agency).
It is obvious, the prop desk at GS needs to unload oil contracts so they need suckers to buy.
Oil poised for another leg down over next few weeks?
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
Confirmed.
This is not from The Onion.
So when is Gensler going to enact position limits such that GS will find some prospects less doable......
You know....that little hold up at the straight up CFTC.....
They are getting as bad as the SEC....
You know the
S ecure
E mployees
C ompensation
So
C orporate
F raud
T echnical
C enter
Would stand for ....??????
Must be that the CFTC wants some of that GS SEC revolving employment door real pay love.....
This means the FED will stomp on Commodities again.. short Oil!
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/
Equities at a very important crossroads
GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.
From DJN time: 19:33: "Senators endorse military engagement in Libya"
Here we go ...........
Where did all the Lib Bush haters go?
Does GS ever make money for their clients?
Or do they use their clients to make money?
goldman has no clients anymore, just counterparties.
they cluck their fients
GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.
GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.
GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.
From DJN time: 19:33: "Senators endorse military engagement in Libya"
Here we go ...........
OT - But you have to see this it's funny as anything I've seen ina while:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=186715
Eventually GS will have to accept reality.
Price is not informative about a commodity that is scarce and getting scarcer. A higher price does not change the quantity of oil underground, nor does it change how deep it is. Price might make some marginal production methods more usable, but only marginally.
We have never seen this movie before. There is no history. This world, one of scarce oil, has never existed before. For most people alive today, they have very little time left to live. The US will never accept lower GDP so that a Chinese person can have a lifestyle increase. War is inevitable and billions will die -- not so much in the war but as a result of the destroyed transport networks.
China will never invade the US and the day the US touches a hostile foot on their soil it's game fucking over.
Smackdown extraordinaire.
ICBMs and nuclear warheads are a great deal less expensive than a division of soldiers' salaries.
Keep dreaming. It'll never happen.
~O~
We touched their soil all the time during the Korean war.
We snuck over the Yalu and bombed their air force, troops, etc.
We destroyed ten chinese divisions during our advance to the rear.
Estimated casualty loss of Chinese volunteers was one million.
I think it is pretty clear what will happen if there is another war.
That was then, this is now.
~D'jean Splicer
This seems to be your main problem. You are continuously fighting the last war in all aspects of your life.
$130 oil in 12 mos = President Romney
$130 oil in 12 months = President Cain, there, fixed it for you.
Don't blame me, I voted for President Abel! :>D
Wow Tyler has saved my skin tonight with this info. Been worried sick about some oil shares which dropped 45% in last 2 weeks. This should lift them. Mind you, hate myself for hanging onto the coattails of whoever's setting such volatile targets ... looks like cynical manipulation, somebody is making a fortune :S
SSN?
One black oil covered swan away from the next major oil price shock! Can't wait!
Coming soon to a market near you: John Belushi, as Goldman Sachs, yelling "SUPER SPIKE". The zanniness that follows is your's to enjoy.
it's a man baby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgOIEGz7o_s
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/morgan-stanley-raises-2011-2012...
The only way that happens is if QE3 is in the cards.
kind of reminds me of that $200 price target before it nosedived to $35
Thanks Zero for you DD and help with us little guys...
Dave
hahahha....supply and demand is so 1999.
yeah . oil MUST stay high to keep the scam going and lay foundation for final endgame
Either GS *knows* that QE3 is coming, or they have some oil to sell. I wish I knew that too.
115 Brent is conservative . It will happen in 2 months- and so the rest will happen faster, according to this old Feb. 6th forecast which has been correct so far:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0#p30486
and its improved May 6 version:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
Please. Oil @ 130+ in 12 months coming into election campaign madness? These guys are trying to line up longs for a slaughter. Fuck these clowns. Whatever they say, do the opposite.