Well That Was Quick: Goldman Goes Long Crude, Raises 12 Month Brent Forecast To $130/bbl

Tyler Durden's picture

Anyone remember that rapid succession of brent downgrades by Goldman last month which did nothing until the CME and the administration launched an all out war on speculators a relentless barage of crude margin hikes? Well, uber momo Goldman sure doesn't. Just out from David Greely: "While near-term downside risk remains as the oil market negotiates the slowdown in the pace of world economic growth, we believe that the market will continue to tighten to critical levels by 2012, pushing oil prices substantially higher to restrain demand. Events in the Middle East and North Africa are having a persistent impact, which leads us to increase our oil price targets We expect that the ongoing loss of Libyan production and disappointing non-OPEC production will continue to tighten the oil market to critically tight levels in early 2012, with rising industry cost pressures likely to be felt this year. We are now embedding in our forecasts that Libyan production losses will lead to the effective exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity by early 2012. Consequently, we are raising our Brent crude oil price forecast to $115/bbl, $120/bbl, and $130/bbl on a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon." Welcome back volatility. CME petroleum product margin reduction in 5...4...3...

As a reminder for those long ago days of April 12, 2011:

While prices are back at levels of spring 2008, supply-demand fundamentals are significantly less tight

The unfolding events in North Africa and the Middle East have pushed up Brent crude oil from $100/bbl in mid-February to over $125/bbl last Friday. These high prices levels invite comparison to the spring of 2008, when crude oil prices first breached these levels in May before peaking at over $145/bbl by early July. We believe that there are fundamental differences between now and the spring of 2008: Both inventories and spare capacity are much higher now and net speculative positions are four times as high as in June 2008.

And there you have it: so much has changed in the past 6 weeks. So much.

Goldman Crude 5.23

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
mynhair's picture

No margin increase from the CME?  So disappointed....

Sockeye's picture

They really think we are going to fall for this? I'm going to bet against them on this one.

bigdumbnugly's picture

why do i get a mental image of the scarecrow from the wizard of oz propped on his post with his arms crossed in front of himself and pointing in both directions? 

tired1's picture

If you haven't yet, look into the story behind 'The Wizard of Oz'. Hint: Oz = Ag

Dejean Splicer's picture

But peak oil. Don't forget peak oil! Peak oil arrived years ago. Peak oil everyone! Peak oil will make prices go higher. Peak oil because there is just not enough oil. Peak oil. Peak oil is here.

Let's have a panic party for Peak oil!


trav7777's picture

you guys haven't figured out yet why the growth system ground to such an abrupt halt, have you?

Dejean Splicer's picture

Shut up Trav. I will not entertain any more comments from you regarding this topic. EOF.

topcallingtroll's picture

I like to be entertained.  More trav please.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I like Trav also ....

He always makes T. ( Seventh-Day Adventist Pepperoni Doomer™ Sect ) Mosley look like a fool ....

tmosley's picture

As I said in the other thread, only through the biased viewpoint of those with shit for brains.

So yeah, you would think that.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

but I did finger it out trav.... got nuthin' to do with oil. It's called SATURATION. When you can't cram not even one more pissy strip mall onto the ground, CRE vacancies balooning, built too fuckn' many fuckin' Mcmansions, everybody's already got 6 fuckin' TV's, 3 fuckin' cars, and etc. Need more?

In Fed We Trust's picture

So if the past is any indication (2008) , then when oi hits $150 - $200,

(the trigger) the insiders sell the bond market to hell. 


In 2008, it was the stock market that crashed.

Now it will be the bond market. Overnight.

It will be called in history books "the Big Short"

I would nt be surprise though if the stock market stays strong,m to 36,000.


Its like 2 poker player left at the world series of.....


Threeggg's picture

That means the commodity long is back in fashion. That was a quick costume change !

Wardrobe revamp !

razorthin's picture

Nefarious strategery or incompetence.  Hmmm, I  wonder which?

Rainman's picture

The setup for the next big con. Talky Talky Push Push that dollar down !! Too bad the Euro will have a tough time cooperating.

mynhair's picture

Who knows.  Some DS in DC may choke on his foot tomorrow.  It's why I didn't jump back on USDHUF after this morning.

Blorf's picture

Everyone please bail us out from the long positions we took when we recommended selling crude. Thanks, The Squid

Drag Racer's picture

its all about that evil demand thing

steve.stuart's picture

Goldman Sachs ....what a bunch of crooks ..they made the public panic and sell crude at $98 and now they are increasing the targe to $130.

Bleeping Fed's picture

The only people that panicked were the f*tards that believed Goldman.  Anyone trading based on what the squid recommends needs a kick in the nads to wake them out of their stupor.

topcallingtroll's picture

Goldman said oil was going to two hundred during the last peak, while at the same time they were selling fixed rate oil contracts (at the top) to chinese air lines.

RobotTrader's picture

Probably means gasoline is going to crash.

Already in L.A., prices are rolling over hard.


We are back under $4/gallon again in my neighborhood ARCO station.


topcallingtroll's picture

yeah don't forget during the last peak goldman called for oil over  200 hundred but was willing to sell fixed rate contracts to chinese air lines and others starting at 135 and up to 150.  Have you all forgotten how China threatened to abrogate those oil contracts?

mynhair's picture

ARCO still exists?  Not here in the East.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Diesel under $3.80 in Elk Grove Village ( the largest industrial park in the U.S.A. )



Spalding_Smailes's picture

It was $4.25 ( at that station ) and in most towns $4.50 was the norm 4 weeks ago ....

tired1's picture

There's a guy I know (cough) that ran a pump and hose from the fuel tank in the basement to the outside of the house. It had a filling nozzle and a switch so the pump could be activated from the outside. That way he could shop around for the best price on home heating oil and save a lot of money.

tmosley's picture

He's not the sharpest knife in the drawer.  He's opening an IMPORT business with the dollar at the lowest levels it has ever been at.

But then, that probably just means he's hanging around his local liquor store buying tequila and Heinekens for high schoolers.  lol

Dejean Splicer's picture

$4.24 today in Palo Alto. No sign of the roll over.


Bleeping Fed's picture

Don't all you Californians drive Smartcars and Priuses anyway?  What's the big deal?

Dejean Splicer's picture

We drive our Pontiac Aztec's to our .gov jobs (at the central unintelligent agency).

russki standart's picture

It is obvious, the prop desk at GS needs to unload oil contracts so they need suckers to buy. 

Dolemite's picture

Oil poised for another leg down over next few weeks?


catch edge ghost's picture


This is not from The Onion.

MarketFox's picture

So when is Gensler going to enact position limits such that GS will find some prospects less doable......


You know....that little hold up at the straight up CFTC.....


They are getting as bad as the SEC....


You know the 


S ecure 

E mployees

C ompensation




C orporate 

F raud

T echnical 

C enter


Would stand for ....??????


Must be that the CFTC wants some of that GS SEC revolving employment door real pay love.....




JW n FL's picture

This means the FED will stomp on Commodities again.. short Oil!

Dolemite's picture

Equities at a very important crossroads

Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Teamtc321's picture

From DJN time: 19:33: "Senators endorse military engagement in Libya"


Here we go ...........

mynhair's picture

Where did all the Lib Bush haters go?

Kokulakai's picture

Does GS ever make money for their clients?

Or do they use their clients to make money?


topcallingtroll's picture

goldman has no clients anymore, just counterparties.

Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.

Ricky Roma's picture

GS offers 200k contracts @ $128.50 for 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month outlook.