It’s hot all over, including the Gulf of Mexico. I keep my eye on a
single buoy, # 42001, 180 miles South of Southwest Pass, LA. (Not too
far from the oil spill). Yesterday the water temperature jumped to over
90 degrees. My unscientific approach is to keep track of these spikes
in water temperature. This is what breeds the big storms. Another key
factor is the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Storms are more likely to develop
during El Nino conditions. Some data on the spikes:
-1975-1994. No readings over 90 degrees.
-1995. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
20 storms ending with Tanya. Luke was a Cat 4 that wrecked the Leeward
Islands. The QE2 avoided this storm but was hit by a 95-foot rouge wave.
Marilyn, a Cat 3 hit the Virgin Islands hard. Opel was a Cat 3 that hit
Pensacola. The first hit in 20 years.
-1996-No reading over 90 degrees.
-1997. A La Nina year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/18.
Five named storms. None of any significance. Little damage.
-1998-2001. No readings over 90 degrees.
-2002. A La Nina year. 90.7 degrees reached on both 8/1 and 8/23
No major storms make landfall.
-2003. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
21 cyclones, 16 named storms. Fabian hit Bermuda, the worst storm in 75
years. Isabel became a Cat 5. It hit NC as a Cat 2 and caused $4b in
damage.
-2004. An El Nino year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/21 and 8/23.
15 named storms. One of the worst years on record. 3,332 deaths $50b in
total damages came from Bonnie, Charlie, Francis Ivan and Jeanne.
-2005. An El Nino year.
90.2 degrees on 8/10 and a record breaking 92.8 degrees on 8/22.
The most powerful season in history. 28 Tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, 7
Cat 3+. 4,000 fatalities, $140b in damages. Wilma was the largest storm
ever observed. Katrina devastated a city.
2006-2009 No readings over 90 degrees.
2010. We have just crossed to a La Nina condition. 90.4 degrees on 8/9.
This is a look at the El Nino/La Nina cycle. That thin blue line that is
just starting to appear on the right just might be timed to save us
some headaches. But it is still weak and may not have the upper air
currents that would break up hurricanes.
The hot water in the GoM has to go somewhere. Storms will form, in the
process the heat energy will be converted into rain and wind. These
might not be Atlantic hurricanes. They could be “home growns”. These can
be just as dangerous. They form quickly. They would look just like the
following developing storm. It will be passing over buoy 42001 next
week. It will suck up a tremendous amount of energy along the way. It
will probably have a name by then.
90 degrees in the GoM? Pikers ...
The NOAA recently reported temperatures as high as 600 F in Lake Michigan in July ...
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/climate-reports/7479-us-government-in-...
Nevermind that 600 F and water are diametrically opposed to the laws of matter ...
Here it is: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
Down the Naples FL way last week. GoM water was sickeningly warm. Nothing refreshing about it. Didn't even want to go back in, depite the heat.
@escapekey
According to King Obama all the oil has evaporated?!
Also I hate AGW and this whole Green debate. I am 39, I have already sold my car, , bought an electric bike, changed my electric supplier to 100% renewable, don't eat meat on mondays etc etc..... and I have been hearing about it for bloody years with not one bit of change being made by AGW proponents.....
It should be called AGP i.e Anthropomorphic Global Pollution....then we would be making some ground as it cannot be denied that cars are polluting LA air, but it can be denied that they are making the planet warmer.
Top tip to AGW proponents. Shut it and start tackling AGP instead!!!
Thank you thank you thank you! Holy crap thank you. Smartest thing said today about anything eco-related. We don't do a thing to fix it except inch closer to carbon credits. This issue (AGW) has entirely eclipsed any discussion about environmental stewardship while demonizing carbon. We're all carbon based for chrissake, so it'd be wise to remember that before getting all anti-carbon. That said, pollution is the problem. Mercury in fish, city air so thick you can slice it with your resparator, decimated fisheries, general declines in most or all biological systems, are just a few examples. We must give a shit. This is our planet. From my view, we either learn to live in harmony with it or we stand back and watch it violently shed us for it's own survival.
As an aside, I think most of us can also agree that selling pollution permits at auction is not the way to fix this problem. Carbon credits = more massages for AL Gore = terrible idea.
Thanks, Bruce.
The post (irregardless of what the current low does) is a good reminder that we are, in fact heading into peak hurricane season.
For the next 8 weeks or so, it prime time for tropical storms.
"Since the prefix ir- means 'not' (as it does with irrespective), and the suffix -less means 'without,' irregardless is a double negative."
Thank you, Rocky. That could not be ignored.
The evaporation is rather important with regards to the development of tropical storms. If the water is higher temperature, but kept below a sheen of oil, the evaporation process will be stalled.
Meanwhile Southern California so cold that fruit and vegetables are not ripening.
Weather a function of electromagnetic and thermal energy. Plenty of both lately, suggesting we may have more extreme weather than usual. Tropical Depression heating up near Nawleans already closed down the so-called relief well.
So-called because BP Coast Guard EPA NOAA news appeared fradulent like Fed, Treasury and other government news:
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20543
Was Energy Investment Banker and W Cheney adviser Matt Simmons, vocal critic of BOP and short the stock expecting bankruptcy, really a hit?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoKSh14l_Ko&feature=related 8:06
Enjoy the market weather down as all assets collapse in search of cash....
Temperatures continue well below average in Southern California
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_15723011
The explanation for this high water temperature is so obvious, I can't believe none of the experts here has mentioned the real cause. One of the numerous undersea oil plumes has ignited, and the hydro-charged flames are just getting started. In a few days we'll all have boiled shrimp and fried snapper for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
And I thought Simmons had passed (RIP). Clearly, this type of wild speculation can only be the work of Zombie Simmons. Prepare to be quoted by George Washington in his next post.
++ long tarter sauce bitchez!
As I recall in 2005 it was the Gulf Loop Current that was unusually warm. This is what powered Katrina and Rita to their 175 mph CAT 5 wind intensity. When they approached the coast the water was cooler and they weakened. Camille didn't and it hit land with 190 mph winds though it was, fortunately, not as large as Rita or Katrina.
Nope. No hurricanes this year. We're totally stocked up and prepared, which means none will happen.
If our cupboards were bare, we'd have already been hit by 5 or 6.
The irony of presenting hard numbers concerning total collapse and their historical similarities is that if it has nothing to do with current tabloid teevee one is considered disconnected from reality.
"Get a grip. The world isn't going to end."
"I know. That's why I haven't asked your wife to leave you and meet me in Vegas. Instead I have storable food, ammunition, and precious metals."
El Bamo
There is a storm in the Gulf as I write and it is heading for Chocolate City. If Bruce is correct, the storm will intensify as it reaches the coast and provide the chocolate people another opportunity to pilage and burn while waiting for FEMA to shower them with goodies.
I see that your avatar is an ass. Appropriately.
+1 for the avatar.
-1 for the intentionally disruptive avatar
-1 for the dumbshit comment
=
-2
I junked you because I am not a dumbshit. I'm Japanese. Hiroshima, August 6, 1945. Now that was a weather event
You have shamed yourself. Here is a wakizashi.
You don't see any tacky comments about Japs here do you? Why stir a perfectly still pot?
For those of you who don't habla espanol EL Nino is Spanish for the Nino.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8&feature=related
Blankman
Wouldn't that be El Nino is Spanish for The Boy (child)?
Watch the video, it will all come to you then.
Bruce, you obviously are not aware that Bill Gates purchased all the patents to hurricane killing machines and secretly built seven working models. Dubbed the PPT(h), BP just bought a huge block of shares and warrants held for Odumbo that can be exercised in the fall of 2012.
I don't know about this prediction. BUT I've been vacationing in the Redneck Riviera for the past decade and a half and I can't remember the water being this warm. It was actually hot. Hard to imagine on a 100 degree day jumping into the Gulf not being refreshing.
Thanks Bruce. You're correct about the 90 degree threshold. I was living in Ft Myers in 2004 when the Gulf water warmed up above 90... Charlie was the first big storm of the season and came right though town on August 13, then Francis, Jeanne, Ivan all hit the state. So I keep tabs on the water temps out there very closely and think this will be another interesting season. El Nino will exacerbate the whole cycle also. I would be amazed if there aren't a couple of Cat 4's that make landfall in the gulf coast area this year... just what they and the national economy need.
At first, I thought this was a post from the MHFT. I was thinking no other contributor on this site has the balls to make meterological predictions on a very limited set of data?
Weather systems are one of the most complex processes in the world to predict. It is amazing that Bruce can do this using just a lone buoy in the World's Seven Seas. Well done.
I wish that I had the time and the resourse to do this right. Folks at NOAA do. Looking at a narrow data set makes for errors. So this is should be taking as such. The reationship to El Nino and hot water is very clear. In looking at 35 years of data it matches pretty well with buoy 42001.
From 1975-1995 no hot water. The last 15 years have been on and off hot water, and lots of storms. No evidence of global warming here...........
I am with you guys on global warming. The problem lies in our politicans propensity to use it as an excuse to steal. Since all politicians are prone to stealing and the majority are sociopaths, I will oppose them on every effort to intervene in free markets or impose new tyrannical taxation schemes on behalf of their benevolent support of the earth. They are all a bunch of lying scoundrels. If you want to go solar, go solar. If you want to put pesos into big Al's pocket - send it to him! Do not try and use the federal government to confiscate unwilling resources so that they can drive Bentleys and send their kids to private schools under the guise of saving the planet! I will drive a smaller car. I will purchase solar panels and geo thermal heating/cooling systems as my finances allow. These are goals of mine. I am not going to enforce my agenda or objectives on my neighbors. They must come up with their own way forward. It is a free country right? Right!?
@BigKahuan: You do not get it. We cannot leave the protection of the environment to the free market. The free market has a quarterly profit outlook for the benefit of the shareholder. Considering man's effects on the environment requires a long term outlook (decades) for the benefit of future generations. Obviously, protecting the environment is a proper role for Government. While we can have a genuine, good faith debate as to the proper way Government should legislate to effectuate this role, your argument that that it should be the free market's role to deal with climate change is very naive, particularly because you acknowledge climate change is real.
I simply calculate that the goverments ability to affect positive change is equivalent or inferior to the free market. The government routinely mis uses tax payer funds and thus I opt for a method where we get the same or better result with no wealth confiscation involved. I do understand.
I cannot think of many examples of a publicly traded corporation (or private, for that matter) that decided to take a profit hit for purely humanitarian reasons (not PR reasons).
I suppose you would prefer XE (nee Blackwater) control/run our armed forces too? Yea, no problems there.
Both of our points are one sided when we are in a two way discussion. Sure some degree of law is necessary. You and I have to count on our government to do what is optimal for the environment in the environment's totality including humans. I am not confident in our government's ability to strike a proper balance between doing what is best for the environment, and doing what is best for their own (special) interest. This is my basis for my action.
As far as privatizing the military, we are so wrapped up in endless conflict with the federal government at the helm that I cannot see a private firm doing worse than the feds. It is all about greed and the military industrial complex (and the feds are in fact in charge). If a private firm were calling the shots right now, there would have been an investigation - and they might have found the thievery - and our troops could be out of these endless wars by now. To your point, the feds are run by private interests under the guise of federal government authority - the difference is that you cannot prosecute the feds and they will surely not prosecute themselves because it could be on the grounds of high treason. If you support federal action, you are supporting private action with impunity. Until we can get the private interests out of our government - or at least get them mostly out - none of us has any recourse against them. Get the private interests out in the open (out of the federal government) and make them function as a private interest so at least we can investigate them and take them to court. Then we can get some legit legislation from the feds. If you advocate greater government control, you should first advocate for getting the massive corruption out of our government. By the way, this applies to all political affiliations - repubs, dems, greens, libertarians, constitutionalists, and other independents.
It is a free country right?
That's the nut.
ya bud, fuck carbon taxes fuck carbon derivatives.
Hey, I am with you on global warming. It is a scientific fact; also a fact is that our climate is being changed, in a multitude of ways, including warming, due to the actions of man. My point is only that to predict a very active hurricane season on a single buoy's temp. readings is a little silly.
You note that the global temp is up slightly in recent decades. And prior to that it was down. And up before that. And down before that. And up around 10,000 years ago, melting the ice sheet and leaving behind the deposit on which rests the home I grew up in in the Midwest.
So, the latest direction is up. So friggin what?
Just look at Kilamanjaro! That's all the evidence I need. Bring on Cap and Trade! Punish the little guy for buying a Wii wrapped in massive amounts of plastic! Gore would have saved us all - I don't care if he's a pervert.
Is this sarcasm Bruce, or are you showing there is ONE Republican on planet earth left with the scientific portion of their brain undamaged by Ronald Reagan quotes??????
Is this a promo post for "Hot Tub" the movie?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jul/18/20040718-115714-6334r/
Something is going on... The whole solar system is going wonky.
we got some wild stuff happening, solar cycle 24 is just starting after a long hiatus, and i dont know if it really matters but the planets are lining up with the current grand cardinal cross which happens in this particular way about every 500years and the upcoming galactic alignment circa 2012 which happens once every 26,000 years caused by precession of the equinoxes.
this is just astronomy so dont go crazy thinking im some new age airy fairy...
Space and the objects in it line up in interesting ways each year. Hopefully we can get past 2012 without being annihilated by some death beam coming from the center of the galaxy. Be sure to keep a nice big bottle of vodka around just in case.
"It shows that there is enough happening on the solar front to merit further research. Perhaps we are devoting too many resources to correcting human effects on the climate without being sure that we are the major contributor," he said.
Uber....
This quote from Burrows just exposes how much of a dumb shit he is. Unbelievable!!!!
The AGW wankers will deny this. They are either laden with hubris or wanting to move more wealth into their pockets on the basis of saving the earth. We are so bold as to think we little humans can affect weather locally, much less globally when our impacts pale in comparison to those of the universe and our own solar system. I wince every time someone says or posts that we are dooming ourselves. Look up into the heavens and then realize just how insignifincant you, and we as a community, are. Worry about something you really have control over.