It’s hot all over, including the Gulf of Mexico. I keep my eye on a
single buoy, # 42001, 180 miles South of Southwest Pass, LA. (Not too
far from the oil spill). Yesterday the water temperature jumped to over
90 degrees. My unscientific approach is to keep track of these spikes
in water temperature. This is what breeds the big storms. Another key
factor is the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Storms are more likely to develop
during El Nino conditions. Some data on the spikes:
-1975-1994. No readings over 90 degrees.
-1995. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
20 storms ending with Tanya. Luke was a Cat 4 that wrecked the Leeward
Islands. The QE2 avoided this storm but was hit by a 95-foot rouge wave.
Marilyn, a Cat 3 hit the Virgin Islands hard. Opel was a Cat 3 that hit
Pensacola. The first hit in 20 years.
-1996-No reading over 90 degrees.
-1997. A La Nina year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/18.
Five named storms. None of any significance. Little damage.
-1998-2001. No readings over 90 degrees.
-2002. A La Nina year. 90.7 degrees reached on both 8/1 and 8/23
No major storms make landfall.
-2003. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
21 cyclones, 16 named storms. Fabian hit Bermuda, the worst storm in 75
years. Isabel became a Cat 5. It hit NC as a Cat 2 and caused $4b in
damage.
-2004. An El Nino year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/21 and 8/23.
15 named storms. One of the worst years on record. 3,332 deaths $50b in
total damages came from Bonnie, Charlie, Francis Ivan and Jeanne.
-2005. An El Nino year.
90.2 degrees on 8/10 and a record breaking 92.8 degrees on 8/22.
The most powerful season in history. 28 Tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, 7
Cat 3+. 4,000 fatalities, $140b in damages. Wilma was the largest storm
ever observed. Katrina devastated a city.
2006-2009 No readings over 90 degrees.
2010. We have just crossed to a La Nina condition. 90.4 degrees on 8/9.
This is a look at the El Nino/La Nina cycle. That thin blue line that is
just starting to appear on the right just might be timed to save us
some headaches. But it is still weak and may not have the upper air
currents that would break up hurricanes.
The hot water in the GoM has to go somewhere. Storms will form, in the
process the heat energy will be converted into rain and wind. These
might not be Atlantic hurricanes. They could be “home growns”. These can
be just as dangerous. They form quickly. They would look just like the
following developing storm. It will be passing over buoy 42001 next
week. It will suck up a tremendous amount of energy along the way. It
will probably have a name by then.
"We are so bold as to think we little humans can affect weather locally, much less globally when our impacts pale in comparison to those of the universe and our own solar system."
I hate it when I hear things like this. We "little humans" are polluting the world at an incredibly rapid pace. There are floating piles of trash in the ocean the size of Texas and chemicals, pesticides, and pharmaceuticals in our lakes, rivers and streams. I could go on, but what's the use. Some of you won't believe that we "little humans" affect the earth until our water, food and air is so contaminated that we'll all die or become sterile.
I'm not saying that climate change is solely due to humans. However, I find it dangerous and ignorant to think that annually adding 30 billion tons of CO2 to our atmosphere is harmless.
I wonder how many of the most adamant AGW deniers have ever taken at minimum a college level chemistry course?
Commander Cody
Don't cities create Heat sinks which affect local weather? And don't cities funnel winds?
Not into AGW myself.
"don't cities create heat sinks"
yeah, and there are complicated formulae to adjust.
no certainty that the adjustments are correct though.
when they passed random data into AGW computer modeling software, it predicted global warming (with hockey stick). these programs are complicated and hard to get right...
And when I exhale or pass gas, I too create a very small local weather disturbance (and apparently a significant impact on the global weather patterns with the methane). So? Does local heating in cities create low pressure or high pressure systems? Does it affect the path of the jet stream? Does it affect the seasons? Does it affect solar flares or solar variations? I think not.
I don't know....when some people fart-it creates quite a disturbance.....
Commander Cody
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Urban_heat_island
Monthly rainfall is greater downwind of cities, partially due to the UHI. Increases in heat within urban centers increases the length of growing seasons, and decreases the occurrence of weak tornadoes. Increases in the death rate during heat waves has been shown to increase by latitude due to the urban heat island effect[citation needed]. The UHI decreases air quality by increasing the production of pollutants such as ozone, and decreases water quality as warmer waters flow into area streams, which stresses their ecosystems.
http://www.urbanheatislands.com/
The anomalous warm of the city creates relatively low air pressures that cause cooler, rural air to converge on the urban center, thus forcing warm air to ascend (i.e. convection), which at higher altitudes condensates and precipitates. Studies carried out in several cities of the United States such as Atlanta, New York, Chicago and Washington, have shown that urban-induced precipitation and thunderstorm events are mainly initiated by the UHI. Other meteorological impacts of the UHI are associated with reductions in snowfall frecuencies and intensities, as well as reductions in the diurnal and seasonal range of freezing temperatures. Lastly, high temperatures may produce physiological and phenological disturbances on ornamental plants and urban forests.
I'd question the source of all these statements but I'll concede that cities probably cause some local weather effects just like large heat sinks can cause regional effects (Great Lakes for instance). But global effects due to human activity vs. the larger impacts due to solar heating and electro-magnetic and gravitational variations due to planetary effects, I'm not convinced.
Commander Cody
Some of the people called Global Warming Deniers use the heat island effect as a more reasonable explanation for any warming than Man Made Co2.
It's clear that cities have a local effect on heat and percipitation, similar to the GOM heat topic. Does local translate to Global? That would depend on the degree.
Natural occuring Topography shares some of the same effects. The bowl shape area surrounding both mexico city and Denver tends to concentrate heat and pollutants instead of spreading them. Supposedly that is one of the main reasons for high breathing alerts in Denver.
And, I may be wrong, but the area around Bophal was also a naturally occuring bowl. That shape caused the disaster to be much more intense than on say a flat plain.
Tha valley around Lake Nyos is another example. As is Lake Monoun.
When we look at this question of heat islands, we also have to look at total land mass vs the area of developed land. Just poking around on google, I found an estimate that said that the amount of developed land in the states is less than 10%, with the rest made up of farm land, forests, and pasture land. It's imperative to consider these points in the right context.
http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/376898
downrodeo
It is a matter of degree.
As with everything these days it all depends on who you choose to believe.
We need to tax the sun to slow down the heating.
I'm looking at the latest graph of sea surface temps for GoM. The only places at 90 degrees in the GoM are in very shallow water and that happens every year. The main body of GoM is running around 86 degrees, w hich is normal. The air temps in the region have been below normal nearly all summer untl lately. I don't know where you get your info, but its way off base. There is a depression formed over the warmest section of the GoM right now (off Ft. Meyers) and it refuses to develop.
Economists and people who try to predict hurricanes have one thing in common, they're never right. Moreover, we are now in the Cape Verde season and storms don't form in the Gulf but the open Atlantic.
OK, I struck out with Google -- what the heck is an "El Indio" year?
El Indio is a gold mine in Chile. But has nothing to to with the weather. (a typo) I fixed it. Tks
b
Damn! I thought it was a character from a Robert Rodriguez movie.
My mistake, Clint Eastwood movie.
a closet meteorologist with climatological overtones - and what are your thoughts on anthropo. global warming?
Either a closet meteorologist or a weather derivatives trader. Do they still have those in the OTC market? I helped start it up way back in 1998, but, maybe it died of natural causes. Everyone's jumping on the big hope for an expansion of carbon credit markets now. ICE just bought the climate exchange for some rediculous amount, reportedly around $600 million.
My grandma could predict the weather better than the experts. Most farmers can.
Folks up in Iowa usually can predict weather quite well, except maybe tornadic activity. My Grandma used to have this special meter on her porch. It had like 3 colors it would change based on air moisture. When that thing turned pink (if I remember right) you could guarantee it would rain in 5, no more than 10 minutes. I don't know, for a kid growing up I thought that was one of the coolest things I had ever seen.
Gary England who works KWTV 9 in OKlahoma City is also nationally renowned for his ability to predict and track Tornadic storms. If you're ever passing through Oklahoma in the Spring season you want channel 9. Yes, I am aware that fact is useless to everyone reading this now.
lol thank you though
Off topic, wang.
Where is all the oil ?
Hallelujah!!
I was just visiting some grieving friends in Spain..
boo hoo
We will cover ALL the costs associated with the spill..
oh yeah ?
off tangent post here..
No, please, no more about AGW! I can already feel the keyboard heating up....Lets discuss Linsay Lohan....I hear she failed rehab..?