This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
"We've Never Seen this Before – Such a Huge Rally, and the Little Guy Is Out"
Joseph Stiglitz says that Wall Street is hyping up the economy to sell more stock.
Has it worked?
Well, the stock market certainly has rocketed up from its March lows.
But many investors are still avoiding equities.
As Vincent Deluard - a strategist for TrimTabs Investment Research (25% of the top 50 hedge funds in the world use TrimTabs' research for market timing) - says:
We've never seen this before – such a huge rally, and the little guy is out.
In
other words, the stock market rally is due almost entirely to hedgies,
pension funds, banks and other institutional investors, and not every day investors.
It is even possible that the government itself has been propping up the stock market. And Bill Gross and Nouriel Roubini say that we have a Ponzi style economy.
TrimTabs
notes that small investors pulled out $14 billion net from stock mutual
funds from the beginning of last year through mid-December, on top of a
net $245 billion withdrawn in 2008.
Given that - as pointed out
by the above-linked article - individuals held 80% of the $19 trillion
in stock in U.S. companies, both private and public, at the end of
September - according to the Federal Reserve - recovery will not happen
so long as the little guys are sitting on the sidelines.
TrimTabs
notes that most of $592 billion taken out of money market mutual funds
last year has gone into bond and bond-hybrid funds instead.
No wonder David Rosenberg is saying:
- "People have been lured into two bubbles seven years apart, and for a lot of them it's over."
- "The bulls say if the market is up this much without retail investors, just watch when they come in, but it isn't going to happen."
- Investors who have not been spooked or angered by the market are probably too poor to buy anyway.
- advertisements -
Well if retail sales were really up, then why are sales tax receipts down so far? Retail sales cannot be up unless sales tax receipts are also up. So either sales are abysmal or stores aren't paying their sales taxes. I'm going with the former.
Explained in the post above. Higher sales per store - according to the stats - but fewer stores. Lower total taxes.
Maybe some day we'll just have one big government store so we can get some totally reliable statistics.
Is this a joke? " spurted "? Is that straight from the report? LOLOL, that's fukin funny.. Didnt know spurted was used in a financial context.
That Gubmint education a shinin'....
"Analysts who follow Alcoa expected it to report a profit of 6 cents a share on revenue of $4.817 billion, according to a consensus estimate compiled by Thomson Reuters.
Including charges of 28 cents a share for restructuring, special items and discrete tax items, Alcoa reported a net loss of $277 million, or 28 cents per share."
oops.
how much debt is alcoa carrying?
This means Mr. Efficient Market needs additional waterboarding.
HAHAHAHA, I love that
+1
I am one of them and I am out since 2008. All my friends are out. some of them are so down, the are frozen in place waiting for a miracle.
well, here is tidbit that I find interesting. Everyone I know is out of the market EXCEPT retired and active school teachers. No wonder education is failing...not one of these people will believe anything on any of these sites except CNBC. Maybe that is why my RE taxes went up 25% this year (all of it to the school system)to cover their losses...and they got them too
The market is no longer a level playing field. Some privileged classes are guaranteed to win, insured against losses—so why should they not ignore ZH and relax and enjoy themselves?
Just as certain investment bankers such as Lloyd Blankfein are guaranteed non-risk investments by their private club, the Federal Reserve, so are teachers and school administrators guaranteed risk-free investing in their 403(b) tax deferred retirement plans by their private club--the Federal Government, i.e., you!
I make that statement based solely on what my cousin told me who recently was graduated from university and hired as an elementary teacher in a California public school. I asked her how her stock investments were doing. Said she: “My 403(b) guarantees me a 2% minimum gain in my equities if they take a loss, and all of my winnings if my equities are up.” Wow! It's just a healthy supplement to her teacher's pension--sort of a fun way to play 401(k) Russian roulette with an unloaded 403(b).
Perhaps we all should read Dan Otter’s new book, Teach and Retire Rich. Tenure, anyone? And, oh, be careful with that 401(k)!
I have not bought any stocks in months. Of the 10 or so people I talk to about finance, only 1 has bought anything in the past few months. Mirrors pretty closely the ZH poll (28% here have bought in the past month). Clearly, finance pros like those here are more likely to have bought something vs. the more regular joes I talk with.
I still hold some stocks, but have been a net seller since 1998!
I have been out since March 2000. And I am feeling pretty smart about that!
I believe that I will never be back in ...
This fraudulent rigged game disgusts me and offends me to my core.
This current bubble will end badly too, and it will not be a 7 year cycle!
Even my asshole sell-side broker pal finally admitted he can't figure it out. He's all into bonds and PMs too......been out of equities 2 months.
I told him back a while ago to spend some time on ZH.