home price index. I think it is inferior to the Case-Shiller index in
terms of measuring what is actually going on month over month. However,
the FHFA gets its data from their own pool of mortgages. Given that
FHFA represents more than 50% of all mortgages (Fannie+Freddie+FHLB=$5.9
Trillion) they have a unique database. The good news is that they have
packaged this up on their website so that anyone can check out trends on
both a city by city or a state by state basis. Amassing this database
has/will cost the taxpayers at least $400 billion (about $3000 each) so I
would encourage you all to get your money’s worth. Link
The following are some graphs of individual states. I plugged in the
start period as 2006 and a $1mm price tag (the site lets you use any
variables you like). The results are not surprising. “Sand” did very
poorly. The upper mid-west is bleeding. Snow resorts seem to have been
clobbered. Texas did pretty well. I could find only one other bright spot in
all the country that not only sustained value but also saw prices rise.
This RE winner shone while most other parts of the country were tanking
by 30+%. Guess where that is? The District of Columbia, of course. I
believe that there is a direct correlation to the results in D.C. and
the rest of the country. Washington is flourishing while the rest of the
country withers. Not a surprise to me.
I found the site useful. I was able to confirm that the disagreeable
relative who said, “RE is stable here in San Diego”, was full of crap.
Prices in that zip code were down YoY for the past four years. I was
also able to disabuse a RE agent in Naples, Florida who told me, “Prices
are down at most by 20% from the high, they are already starting to
recover”. They are actually closer to 40% off that high water mark and
they continue to fall.
Note: In my neck of the woods (N. of NYC) there was a lousy
selling season (ends August 1). It was better than 2009. There is still a
tremendous overhang of properties. Increasingly, bank owned REO is a
factor. There are many “must sell” homes. A number of these have quietly
dropped the asking price another 10%. There does not seem to be
elasticity of demand. There are cheap mortgages and cheap houses and no
demand. I have to believe that this is occurring in other parts of the
country. The graphs from the FHFA are headed lower. Except the one for
D.C.
LOL, bought my house in 2006, valuated it for 1st Q 2010 using the link, state calculation says 127,000
MSA/MSAD says 140,000
Okay which is it? I had mine appraised when I refi last year for 159,000
Okay which is it? LOL
The thing is , nobody knows anywhere. It's all a sham game played by the banker elites. They make the house worth whatever they can make the most money from, that they can get the sucker to take on loan. That simple.
They used to tell this one at chicago title, 30 years ago:
"What's the difference between a condo and a condom?"
"None, you get f***ed with both of them ...."
These numbers are meaningless; there aren't enough comps to justify any realistic valuations; at least in my redneck of the woods.
But thanks for posting this link, Bruce; it may come in handy for any future lawsuits!
In my neck of the woods (N. of NYC) there was a lousy selling season
that sounds like westchester county, ny. home of the $120,000 per year local cop spending all day giving out speeding tickets, home of the $110,000 per year part time teacher who teaches kids who have private tutors, home of the 4,000 square foot toll bros mcmansion that sells for $995,000 with $25,000 per year in real estate taxes.
is that your neck of the woods that had a lousy selling season?
That would be me...
You got one part wrong however. The tax on that mcmansion is not $25,000. It is closer to $40,000.
bk
Rochester NY area is up over last 3 yrs!
“RE is stable here in San Diego”
San Diego is home of the Polyanna real estate crowd - it is truly mind-boggling how clueless and naive the locals are when it comes to real estate - the median income is about $60K but people think $400K for entry-level housing somehow makes sense
General Dynamics left San Diego in the mid-1990's - they employed 15,000 people - most of them technicians and engineering types - the pain of this job loss was masked by the typical SoCal real estate cycle that started to ramp up around 1996
Now, here we are 15 years later - real estate is in a downward trajectory and will be for several more years - the jobs created since GD left town are mostly in the service and entertainment sectors (think coffee barrista at Starbucks) - CA is an expensive place to do business (taxes and regulations) and employees in SoCal can't afford housing ($400K entry level) so nobody wants to locate their business in SoCal
San Diego's real estate market won't be stable until prices come back in line with incomes - that means declining house prices or increasing median incomes and I don't see anything on the horizon that would lead to higher incomes
IMO there is another 30 to 40% decline coming in San Diego housing markets
Isn't there a monstrous military/naval contingent that works there?
Hundreds of thousands of jobs tied to the Offense Department?
Horse shit. It says home values are almost 10% HIGHER here now than they were in q1 06. I guess that's why I see for sale signs with the sticks holding them up ROTTING AND FALLING because they've been there so long.
What someone will pay good, hard money for it and which I would accept.
And not a dime more or less, despite the estimators' claims.
What I like about this app is not that I can see how much my market is down, but how much it bubbled from 1991 to present. Handy for countering the "well, we didn't have a big run up like some other places did" tripe.
I'm sure the county assessor LOVES this app...it's about as full of shit as a Christmas goose. If the clowns at the FHFA want to buy my house for what their compu-geeks came up with, I've got a pen ready to sign the papers.
If anybody wants to buy my haouse at ANY price.... I gotta pen. Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Nice little 4 Bedroom, 3 bath on some acres? Bueller?
I thought you were well fixed in case Mad Max decided to visit. Land, garden, shop building, well water, electrified fence (solar, of course), root cellar, and tunnels out to the bunkers at the perimeter. Why would you give up all that?
I've seen postings on real estate sites for very nice appertments that look very nice in california FOR 17.000$!
I don't think prices can drop much more. Because at current prices, you can give somebody a appertment as a birthday gift and a bottle of wine that costs more then the appertment!
I think if you dig a little deeper you will find that the $17K condo isn't located anywhere that you'd want to live - remember that CA is a BIG state and not all of it is next to a beach
The equivalent of that $17K condo is still $300+K in any of San Diego's beach communities (west of I-5)
Like those Detroit "homes" for $1. Yeah, most being kindling.
All right, just who precisely, put ALL these stupid former Hippies in charge?!
Super Cali-deflation-expeditious, you mean...
Sweet Cali down 50% !!!
Bruce,
Some Canadian friends of mine eager to purchase a condo in Florida tell me that after studying the market more closely, they decided not to purchase. Why? Apparently condo fees are insane and it's simply not worth it.
There's an old bit of gallows humor:
Q. What's the difference between a condo and cancer?
A. Sometimes, you can get rid of cancer.
Like others have said, condo HOA fees are divided among occupants. As more default, fewer are left holding the bag.
Also, insurance is killer in coastal areas.
Finally, if the rising sea level/eroding coastline continues per trend, a significant part of south Florida will be underwater (literally) in couple of decades.
I have a condo. I heard a guys comment about getting out of his. he said "he'd mow his grass with his teeth before buying another Condo with a HOC (Home Owners Committee)" .
Make damn sure they check race, color and religious preferences of their new neighbors if they do find one. As I've found out , location does matter but not in the way you would think.
There is a very obvious reason for not buying into condos. There is a blanket mortgage in condos and coops that is paid by the condo owners. When too many people in the condomium contract default or go bankrupt, then the condo association can raise fees, no longer maintain basics as promised from said fees, or can go bankrupt. Then, the least of your problems is monthly fees.
You don't own the land, just the condo. You can lose it all through the defaults and financial instability of your neighbors. Simple math.
Funny how over the years the whole concept of the "horizontal property regime" has distorted. I recall when it was all the rage to create condos out of existing apartment buildings (did a couple myself). It was a really weird concept not to own some dirt under your house. Looking back, it was just another housing monstrosity.
Ridiculous crap, Howard. The association does not have an automatic debt at the start of its existence. If it does, then the developer has pulled a fast one. All should be disclosed through minutes of meetings & audited financial statements. If the association wants to change the condo manager, then the board of the association can decide to do it. Quite managable, in my opinion.
Although, the size of the association can be a problem.
Too many know-it-alls who don't stop yapping.
The first-- and last-- condo I owned saw the owners' association hoodwinked not once, but TWICE, by management firms that made off with the association's money. The books all looked very healthy.
Until they didn't.
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