What Are the Results of the Oil Well Integrity Test?

→ Washington’s
Blog

UPDATE:  Oil
Pressure Stopping Short of Target ... Does that Mean the Well Integrity
Test Is Failing?

If you don't know what the results of BP's oil well integrity test
are, you're not alone.

As I pointed
out Wednesday:

BP suspended the "top kill"
operation for 16 hours -
because, according to numerous experts, it was creating more damage to the well bore - without
even telling the media, local officials or the public that it
had delayed the effort until long afterwards.

BP also admitted
- many days after it stopped
the top kill attempt - (1) that BP had to stop because mud was leaking
out below the seafloor, and (2) that capping the well from the top
could blow out the whole well.

Similarly, it took more than 5
hours for BP to publicly announce the delay of the "well integrity
test" after the decision to delay was made.

So BP doesn't have a
great track record of promptly informing us of what is happening.

Because
so little information is being released, even oil industry experts like
Rob Cavner are resorting to watching the underwater video cams to try
to figure out what's happening.

And Cavner says that BP and the
government are making things up on the fly, so it is a very fluid
situation, and that long periods of silence mean that something is
happening:

It’s clearly been on the fly. There’s a
lot more discussion behind the scenes obviously with the government
and bp team than what they’re disclosing to the public. What I’ve
learned in this whole experience, if you get a long on period of
silence, something’s going on. I think that’s a lot of what happened
today.

Fortunately,
Cavner says that it looks like BP is doing a thorough job of monitoring
visual and sonar images for leaks.

For example, the Geco Topaz
is conducting seismic surveys over a range of many miles. Indeed, the Topaz has sailed perhaps 50
miles in and around the site of the oil gusher. See this
and this (the Topaz is
the ship indicated in light blue).

So What Do We Know?

Even independent oil industry experts are guessing at this point because
BP is keeping everything close to the vest (and that some allege
that the government is not publicly disclosing what it knows).

And the stakes are high.  As president Obama said this morning,
there is a risk that - if the well is incorrectly capped - numerous
leaks could spring from the seafloor:

(starting
at around 30 seconds.)

So the question is what we do
know
at this point?

Putting aside Matt Simmons' (Simmons was an energy adviser to
President George W. Bush and was a prominent investment banker to the
oil industry.  NOTE TO ZH READERS: IF YOU CAN FIND ANY CONFIRMATION OF SIMMONS' CLAIMS, I'LL EDIT THIS SENTENCE) claims that there is a conspiracy to cover up a larger
leak miles from the cap - for which there's been no independent
confirmation to date - here's everything that we know at this
point:

• Well pressure is currently a
  little above 6,700
  psi, far short of the 8,000 psi which would prove that the well
  integrity is more or less intact.

• If the well
  pressure keeps rising, and stabilizes at 8,000 psi or higher, then the
  well is fairly stable, and the below-seafloor
  damage to the well is not significantly impacting well strength. 
  It would not be unexpected for the pressure to start lower and then to
  rise, so at least another 24 hours is needed to get the final result.  
  BP says "The pressure has been a very steady build as predicted by
  engineering anlysis we did. "  BP also says that the seismic, sonar and
  visual inspections so far indicate "no negative
  evidence".

• If well pressures rise
  and then suddenly drop, then
  the well integrity test itself has caused a new leak.

• If
  well pressure stabilizes far below 8,000, then there are major leaks.
  Oil industry professionals posting at the Oil Drum hypothesize:
  

  What this could indicate is that there is a
  possibility of crossflow at the bottom of the well. What this
  means that the oil and gas that are flowing out of the reservoir into
  the bottom of the well, are, under the pressure in the well, now flowing
  into a higher reservoir of rock, now that they can't get out of the
  well. Depending on where that re-injection flow is, this may, or may
  not, suggest that the casing has lost integrity. This is a topic that
  has been covered in the comments at The Oil Drum, where fdoleza
  - "a petroleum engineering consultant retired from a major
  multi-national oil company" - has noted:

  ... I believe the flow will be coming out
  of the bottom sand and going into the upper sand. It would not be a
  leak, but it would tell them why their pressure data ain't a classical
  surface buildup. And I sure hope they're modeling temperatures and so
  on, because this is a very interesting case. They don't have downhole
  gauges, so they'll have to take the way the oil cools down as it sits to
  get a better idea of the way things are moving down below.

  If there are questions whether there is still flow in the formation
  or from the original formation into surrounding rock, then it is
  possible that the relief well (RW) is close enough to the original well
  (WW) that putting a set of very sensitive microphones down the RW might
  allow some triangulation to estimate where such a flow might be
  occurring. It might make it easier that the well hasn’t been finally
  cased yet. But the test has 2 days to run, and will be evaluated every 6
  hours. With time some of these questions may be answered as the test
  continues. (If there is no flow anywhere, after a while all the
  readings should become quite stable).

Updates as they develop ...

Comments

[DarkAgeAhead]

Of course the government is not disclosing all or most of what it knows.  It never does.  It's more the level of deception and air of corporate feudalism that seems stunningly just to be assumed in how the goverment conducts itself these days.

My first post here was deleted...not an illustrius start.  I'll repost the thought - as an Oil Drum anonymous contributor speculated (or maybe more accurately, conjectured?!, as he seemed dead on), this leak of oil from the Carboniferous finding its way to the our current geologic time, not concidentially called the Anthropocene, is a force of nature.  We are against fundamental laws of Life here.  Either we (being Humanity through the distorted perversion that BP is) win with the relief wells, or as one put it, Nature and its "remorseless crunching of big numbers" does.  If Nature, then billions of gallons of oil basically obliterating first the sea bed, then the ecosystem/biome, then our health, both economic and biological.

For the conjecture, see -- http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/06/worst-already-true-BP-well-no...

Regardless with the toxifying air, intergenerational biocultural economic losses, Man v Nature never ends well for Man.

[Rider]

Video stream is offline meanwhile BP prepares the set in hollywood to mock a contained leak.

I can not wait oil to rain so I can refill the tank for free.

[CPL]

Staring Charlie Sheen and Alicia Silverstone.

[arnoldsimage]

george... good video here. sad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxDf-KkMCKQ

[Joaquin]

Test Results don't look good: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_oil_spill;_ylt=Aoj6TDgVP0horFoUFXKdwbOs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNodWZ0cTA5BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNzE2L3VzX2d1bGZfb2lsX3NwaWxsBGNjb2RlA21vc3Rwb3B1bGFyBGNwb3MDMQRwb3MDMgRwdANob21lX2Nva2UEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDZmVkc3Rlc3RyZXN1

[gasmiinder]

BS - that article says nothing except "this reporter has no idea what's going on but he does have a deadline"

[Diogenes]

So they finally cap the well that was the cause of the biggest environmental catastrophe of the century and the effect on BP's stock is.... nothing.

Price sideways to slightly down all day, finishing $1.42 lower than the open.

The stock is up $12 in the last 2 weeks though.

WTF?

[Strom]

Buy the rumor, sell the news?

[wang]

here we go

 (following are my unofficial notes of the conference call)

_____

these are the standards we set

6 hr more than 5000psi important

24hr <7500 ps ambiguity e.g. leak in well head if above than integrity

current

right now 6700 psi but no higher could be lower because of well integrity or resevoir lower in pressure

additional acoustical survey required

additional seismic survey required

NOAA boat looking for Methane from the sea floor  with acoustic device

concern about methane

uncertainty about the meaning of the pressure

don't want to create harm or a irreversible situation

back to the methane we want to make sure there is no methane

 pressure rising at 2 to 10lbs per hour

was the resevoir depleted or is there an ongoing way for the oil to leave the well bore

we do not know the condition of the well bore

a good chance it could be depletion

checking out the well bore

checking for leaks

 we will reevaluate in 6 hours and have a series of  meetings (with the committee) everything moving forward is condition based

resevoir depletion can be measured by determining if there was an aquifer beneath the resevoir but there is not one. If the seismic and acoustic show no sign of leakage we will continue with the testing

Question is the test making things worse

we have no indication of  a seafloor breach so it could be resevoir depletion

If we were to detect methane we would lower the pressure by venting or ramp up Helix Producer

This kind of formation can maybe heal itself if we do damage it,  the quickest way to reduce pressure is opening the kill and choke line

The 6 hour period starts now

The Noaa ship is in the area but there are issues with frequencies that need to be resolved

We should have results in the next 6 hours

If there is a problem we will vent the oil

The initial curve of pressure build up was normal but stopped short of our target which is the concern

Track the Geco Topaz Seismic Ship at  http://www.deepwaterbp.com/m_6.asp

[myshadow]

Matt Simmons mentioned the methane could be a greater calamity.
Do acoustic tests detect methane, and the quantity/volume?

On Hardball Ann  Thompson is now floating the meme about the 'cracks in the sea floor'.  There was a 'search' today and they couldn't find any cracks.  Secondly is the 'depletion' scenerio.

There is a concern about the pressure holding at 6700 psi where they were expecting a hold at 7500.

When you crack an egg you can't put it in a cast and let it heal.

I wouldn't be surprised that they, the gov't and bp, knew about them for quite a spell.  I find it hard to believe the military and NASA doesn't have the hardware to do some detecting.

I think they are wishin and a hopin' that the relief wells will relieve the pressure in time to avoid a calamity

[wang]

 Jimmy look closely at the video of the President, in the window behind him is the silhouette of a man who bears a striking resemblance to Simmons.

[RichardENixon]

That's actually Washington's ghost, he has taken to wandering around the White House muttering, shaking his head, and peering out of windows during media events.

[nmewn]

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dot_bust]

The results are meaningless because it was never an oil leak. It was an undersea volcano, as is pictured in the following video footage of a similar undersea volcano:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U51cY6iod3U

The phony oil leak has been a grand distraction. Keep the sheeple busy with a fake catastrophe while you continue to steal from them.

[George Washington]

Doesnt look anything like that ... but cool video ...

[Jim_Rockford]

"is a prominent investment banker to the oil industry"

- I think you need to change "is" to "was" in the above sentence.

[George Washington]

Doesn't do investment banking since he left Simmons & Company? If so, I'll change it.

[Jim_Rockford]

I don't know what he does ... if he has any clients or anything.  Seems to have a lot of free time on his hands.  Just sayin.  Not sure if there is such thing as a one man investment bank.

[George Washington]

Okay, I'm leaving the way it is for now.  If someone can prove he's out of the investment banking biz, I'll edit ...

[Augustus]

He was the founder of Simmons and Co.  He retired but remained listed on the firm's letterhead as Chairman Emeritus, or something such as that.  After he announced the leak was seven miles away and that the wellhead being shown was a fake leak, the firm took even that title away.  Simmons announced his short position, several days later the firm Simmons & Co issued a buy recommendation and announced that he had no association with the firm in ANY capacity.

[wang]

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Matt%20Simmons_Ocean%20Energy_Press%...

HOUSTON – (June 16, 2010) – Energy investment banker, Matthew R. Simmons announced today his retirement from Simmons & Company International, effective June 30th, and his intent to devote his full focus to The Ocean Energy Institute.

(They have a link to his new endeavour directly under their logo)

[wang]

posted in prior thread

In his 10am statement today, President Obama specifically referred to the concern of oil seeping up from the sea floor not as a conspiracy theory but as a risk and concern. 

His words "without creating new problems including possibly countless new oil leaks in the sea floor"

here is the video of President Obama making those comments 

(comments begin at the 40 second mark)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQWxnhN1bxY&feature=player_embedded

with additional comments by gas and aug

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-results-well-integrity-test-are...

also note today's conf call sched for 2pm now at 430 (hmmmm)

feel free to dial in just use the confirmation code below and provide your name e.g. Jim Rockford and affiliation e.g. "Vandelay Industries"

----------------

WHO: Admiral Thad Allen, National Incident Commander

WHAT: Teleconference press briefing to provide operational update on ongoing Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill response efforts

WHERE: Teleconference (only) from Washington D.C.

WHEN: Friday, July 16, 2010, 2 p.m. EDT. (now 4:30pm) The call-in number for press is [phone] for domestic callers, and [phone] for international callers. Conference ID-88830469

[Jim_Rockford]

Dammit Wang, that number was supposed to be top secret!!

[George Washington]

Thanks, that's the funniest thing I've heard all day!

[George Washington]

Thanks, added Obama's comments to the main post...

[Jim_Rockford]

Earthquake in Washington DC, a parking lot collapse in New Jersey.... coincidence?  Then you have the Geco Topaz looking frantically for that missing section of drill pipe they said was stuck in the BOP ....

Oh did anyone see this?  Karl Denninger a stock market expert who lives in Florida  h/t Gasmiinder

[George Washington]

Wait, so as a defender of the oil industry who worked on the Valdez cleanup, you're trying to pretend that a new blowout in the well didn't suck in so much material that it formed a black hole which pulled a couple hundred points off of the Dow today?

</poor attempt at humor>

[Jim_Rockford]

Attempt accepted.  Hey did you read that Tx. Monthly article?  I spoke to the author of that article recently.  He is now approaching 70 and lives in Galveston.  He's a very interesting guy.  I could put you in touch ....  might get a scoop.  Last time I spoke with him (about 2 weeks ago) he was headed to the Gulf Coast of LA.  He's a lib, but from what I can tell he's not looney.

[Augustus]

Interesting that you ran into the guy.  Is there a version of the miracle water that you recommend?  And,  is it a one time deal of does it have to be reapplied after some period?

[Jim_Rockford]

I'm traveling right now. Will try to post more in 24 hrs. Medina soil activator. Callahans nursery Dallas, Tx was the last place I bought any. When I hauled barrels of the stuff down to Mega Borg, it was a mix from Alpha Environmental in Austin. They have since been sold/acquired by a company in Boston.

[WaterWings]

All the sick people in the Gulf Zone are looney if they take the official word as truth and wait for a .gov solution. Their health will continue to deteriorate and likely have severe long-term effects. We have yet to see - but I would get the hell out of there!

But all anyone needs to do is come down here. To Barataria, Lafitte, and numerous other small fishing communities in the marshland of southeast Louisiana. Your eyes will burn. You will smell the oil and sheen. Your chest will tighten and your heartbeat will be felt in your head after just a few hours, tops. BP and the government cannot hide this. And it is worsening by tens of thousands of barrels of Louisiana sweet crude and untold thousands of gallons of dispersant every day.

The denials from BP, the Obama administration, the Coast Guard, and other governmental organizations like NOAA are what enrage Tracy more than anything else. In fact, BP is having response workers in Mississippi and Alabama go through metal detectors so they can't even take their cell phones out with them when they go and do their response work.

"We're living here and see this everyday. You can't tell us we don't have the BP cough that we've never had before. It makes us feel like the government thinks we are stupid little toddlers and that concerns me. They are constantly telling us not to be afraid and that is what scares the hell out of me. We shouldn't have to trade our estuary and our kid's lives to protect someone else's investment. We shouldn't have to trade ourselves."

I breach the question of what she and her husband Mike Roberts are going to do. Mike has been shrimping and crabbing here for more than 35 years. His anguish is written all over his face. They know as well as anyone how incredibly toxified their home is now. "How can anyone just leave their home and never come back again," she asks me back. "My grandson cries if he has to leave the bayou. He's been trawling since he was in diapers. This summer he's 12 and was supposed to be learning more navigation skills. Now he can't, so he's like a little lost soul."

Tracy has been working with eco-activists and fisherfolk in all five Gulf states. She says the BP catastrophe has transcended all usual barriers that usually keep people at odds with one another. "This transcends all other issues because everyone must breath this air. We are all connected by this water. And now we're all connected by BP's oil. We all know what's going on. What planet do they live on in Washington D.C.? Not this one. They need to come here and breath this shit everyday and swim in this soup and tell us it's just fine. All the kids around here have rashes, asthma problems, ear infections and the majority of our fishermen are out there working in this stuff 24/7 because it's now the only job in town and they're all getting sick."

The day before, in Chalmette, Louisiana, I spoke with Dr. Riki Ott. Dr. Ott is a marine toxicologist and Exxon Valdez survivor who has been monitoring BP's actions and how they are affecting what we know about the damage the oil disaster is causing and threats posed to those working in the polluted zone.

"This is a hazardous waste cleanup," she told me as we sat in the city hall chambers where she was soon to hold a public forum, "BP needs to be evacuating the Gulf coast and paying for that, in addition to costs for relocating people and compensating them for what they've lost."

It is that serious. My eyes still burn and my chest is tight, long after we exited the toxic soup of air and water that is south of New Orleans. Toxic chemicals from dispersed oil and the dispersant itself now permeate all the air, leaves, water and wildlife of the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of Florida and Texas. You are breathing this same air as you read this.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=20127

[George Washington]

Sorry, I've been to busy to do anything but skim first 2 pages ... sea water, poop and yeast? Is that his formula? (No snark intended ... it might be the winning formula)

[buzlightening]

Crap on! Crap off!  The crapper!!  What is going on, here? Watching the live feed of the BP, and suddenly, I got this. Probably just dus. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeLxju8On_g&feature=player_embedded 

[George Washington]

The ROVS kick up alot of dust ... they then sit for a minute to let it settle down, and then see if anything is leaking ...

[PhD]

THE END IS NEAR!!!

 Either for the leak, BP, America or the world.

Should we flip a dice?

[CPL]

How about a coin.

Heads they win, tails you lose.  It's the shape of things now.

[Augustus]

What he is suggesting is that the major pay zone at the very bottom is putting oil into a sand a few feet above it.  The whole last 1,000 ft section below the last liner is a possible place for the oil to go, except that the logs show a sand zone with some perm slightly above the pay.  In any event, it is about 12,000 ft below the mudline with many sealing layers above it.

[Greyzone]

Excuse me but you don't know that the upper layers are sealing or not. In fact, discussions here in Houston have suggested otherwise with oil company geologists (not with BP) stating that several of those layers are highly permeable. The situation appears stable but the pressure is not yet at the expected levels. And a leak into an upper layer may or may not be a problem. But just automatically casually dismissing it as you just did raises questions about your objectivity in this situation.

[Augustus]

OK, I'll excuse you.

There is certainly in the geologic column that is sealing this oil at the pay zone depth.  If it was not originally sealed, it would not have been there.  Then the next question is, if there is a shallower sandy zpne with perm and above the pay, is there oil going into it.  And if there is, why sould it come out?  these rock layers have had 150 - 175 million years to consolidate and there are certainly many shale sections going up the hole.  It is also probable that BP drilled through several small oil and gas sands on the way to the target TD for this one.  Those would have had some type of cap.  In any case, some cross flow or communication at the bottom is not a big deal but could be a little bit of an additional complication for the kill pill.

IF oil does flow into a shallow sand zone, meaning at 10,000 ft or lower, it will follow that sand and spread out.  When the drive from the blowout is stopped, that oil will stay there as there is nothing pushing it any longer.  People confuse the idea of a leak into another formation with the idea of Simmons that there is a leak from the blowout 7 miles away.

[Broken_Trades]

^^^^^  Agreed.

You have seen the logs?  Do you know where I can look at an offset?  Do you know which company ran logs or LWD for BP on this well?

[gasmiinder]

Links to the logs have been posted here repeatedly.  Those logs did not show the entire section only the last run below the 95/8 shoe.  Obviously there are significant seals above the reservoir, it exists after all.  The block immediately to the south had gas production from a shallow sand that would now be depleted.  A previous employer of mine owned (25% of) this block as protection acreage while producing that block.  However I do not know whether they believed it extended as far as this well.  So there is at least a possibility of a shallow depleted sand THAT WOULD BE BEHIND THE DRILL LINERS.

I would argue with the suggestion above that the main pay zone is experiencing cross flow into the 20' sand just above it.  My reasoning would be related to the annotations on the log posted.  Based on that presentation they drilled into the 20' sand with heavy mud and began to experience minor losses.  They cut their mud weight and drilled ahead, then cut the mud some more.  About the middle of the thicker package they had "major circulation losses" suggesting to me that the pressure in the lower sand was originally lower than in the sand above.  YES I know that's a lot of assumption from a little bit of data but it's what we've got.  This was an odd reservoir pressure situation to begin with  -  there was a major pressure regression in the reservoir.  Its a puzzle that I wish I had the chance to examine in more detail - maybe in a few years there'll be an SPE & AAPG paper..........

I also believe people are making a lot more of these "pressure readings" than necessary.  The real info is in the buildups and we don't know what those look like - I'm happiest to hear the relief well is back to drilling.  Things are looking up.

[Augustus]

I also believe people are making a lot more of these "pressure readings" than necessary.  The real info is in the buildups and we don't know what those look like - I'm happiest to hear the relief well is back to drilling.  Things are looking up.

I agree with that about 100%.  Some of this stuff is just a science experiment to prove that they can collect the data.  After they get it, so wht?  Drill the  darned relief well as soon as possible and get the blowout killed.   Every day or hour that the relief well sits there with an open hole is another hour of risk of hole problems with that well.  There are reasons that drilling has to stop and they are unavoidable.  Logging and setting pipe or bit changes come immediately come to mind.  After those reasons I want to keep drilling and circulating and making chips move up the hole hole before something in the formation changes and I end up stuck.  It will be really great if Admiral Allen has to actually explain what the jars are doing on an hourly basis for a couple of days.  At least move on to the next casing point and run it before shutting down drilling again.

Some sort of cross flow at the bottom of the hole will not stop the kill pill.  I suspect that the special lost circulation material and mud additives of Wright will take care of the problem. 

[Broken_Trades]

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k247/dhm1353/MacondoLog.png

http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100614/BP-Production.Casing....

These are Schlumberger LWD logs if anyone was wondering.

Very very interesting that they dropped the mud weight from 14 to 12.5 over the reservoir.  Is the first sand at 18070-18100 the sand that they are speculating is taking some of the production? Or is there another sand behind the 9 5/8 casing?

[George Washington]

Augustus, I did not take fdoleza's comments as hypothesizing that the sand zone flows would ever make it to the seafloor.