What Does The "Treasury Demand Curve" Tell Us About Treasury Demand?

Tyler Durden's picture

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tecno242's picture

But how is a failed auction going to happen if Ben is always picking up the slack.

He can continue to do that until everyone realized he's the only buyer and starts dumping $'s cause of it.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is a bold (some would say insane) experiment in human nature and the collective mind. Can essentially the entire world wish itself to wealth and happiness. Since the fiat currency is based solely upon the collective faith and belief of those using the fiat currency, the only thing that matters is the faith and belief of the collective.

The true test comes when the next level of stress enters the system. Rest assured, it is coming. You can not deviate this far from the mean without people recognizing that you have deviated this far from the mean. 

It's a binary event, all or nothing, on or off.

tecno242's picture

I don't think it's an experiment, so much as his only choice.  Lest his banker overlords lose their shit.

That being his only choice, the collective must be led to believe that everything is hunky dory.

thus, the greatest phantom stock market rally ever.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You are misinterpreting the word "experiment" to include the word "voluntary" or "choice". The Nazi doctors experimented on the prisoners. The prisoners and often the doctors lower down the food chain had no choice. It was still an experiment.

tecno242's picture

But they chose to do those experiments.

Bernanke doesn't have a choice.  And if he chose differently, he would simply be removed as they shred him in public for whatever they choose to dig up.  And put someone else in his place that won't be so discriminating of their plan.

merehuman's picture

i call bullshit on the "choice

He could choose to be forth right and honest, let chips fall where they may!

Our leaders arent in this for us or the good of the country. That factoid is patently obvious for all who have the eyes to see. Unemployed are seeing better . Poverty really clears the eyes when not used to it.

China knows whats coming and has encouraged the purchase of gold and silver amongst their people. With that in mind i expect China to be the strongest currency within 5 years. Perhaps much , much sooner.

Everything looks different when seen from the other fellas perspective.

BTW Cognitive Dissonance, I appreciate your addition to our quest to mature spiritually. Our entire lives are given over to earning, getting , having and desiring more. In the process the one thing most valuable to all of us is the short time we have on this planet, in these bodies.

Consequently little time is spent in Being, Loving, imagining,contemplating.

I would like to see a shool that

honestly teaches  to think..teaches the various levels of love  .. teaches how to focus our attention,  teaches self awareness and the neccessities of life .

Self control emotionally and mentally should be a required course.

Its such a waste to be ignorant of the more wonderful aspects of being while focused on the material


knukles's picture

Only once in my some 35+ years toils do I remember a "failed" auction which occurred back in the '70's when the "crowding out" miasma was being bantered about.

Sufficient bids had not been received by the Fed and as such, they simply asked the Primary Dealer community to "rebid".  The auction was covered, Street was long and life went on.

Remember, a requirement of Primary Dealer status is that they are Required to bid on all auctions. 
Moreover, there seem to be (seem, being the operative term) numerous additional vehicles through which additional bid, as necessary, occur.

Ain't gonna have a filed Treasury Auction. 
'Nuff said.

Postal's picture

"This is not the failed auction you are looking for."

"This is not the failed auction we are looking for."

"This Ponzi auction is free to continue."

"This Ponzi auction is free to continue."

Mark Beck's picture

Primary participation is based on a traditional look at creating a fair bid, not to continually step in and be a majority buyer. I do not believe the Primaries are buying that much. The $30B or so slack they had from the beginning of the year to put towards buys should almost be done.

The FED has to prevent failed auctions through some creative avenues for as long as they can without announcing another long term T buy program. But there is a limit to the creative powers at the FRBNY.

The real problem is in the amount of revenue coming in. April net receipts must out perform last year or the Treasury will have real problems, especially when the President asks why the ARRA spending has not been on schedule.

I think it is entirely possible that the Treasury has started a program to delay outflows for descretionary spending. The hope is that the recovery will aid the cash flow problem. Even so, I feel the FED will have to act sooner rather than later.

Mark Beck

plocequ1's picture

The Feds reaction: Who gives a fuck? Apple stock is above $250. It's all good. Rally on

jkruffin's picture

LOL  Today's 7r auction   93% alloted at high  3.21 High yield and direct bidders on vacation.  The FED is being told,  raise rates or else.

jkruffin's picture

Direct Bids took down only $3.9B of the total 32B auction   OOOPPSSS!!


The Indirect Bids took down a whopping $19B


Glad I canceled my order this morning as the FED goosed the bonds again.

Strider's picture

As I believe Plato once said " you cant eat pictures of food, no nutrition there".

You can take a guitar to water but you cant tuna fish

Bernanke: "look at all the pretty pictures, hey anyone want a Fresca?"

Sudden Debt's picture

I somehow don't think plato would have said that :)

pictures? Fresco's, mosaics and carvings... try to keep you teeth eating those

Tuna fish? Plato = mediteranian sea = no tuna

Guitar and tune a fish? That sounds pretty english to me my friend. And the english language at that time didn't even exist. Romans didn't even land in England, Vikings wheren't around by then and English was born out of the mix of their language.


Commander Cody's picture

Answer:  Its demanding.

Invisible Hand's picture

Man, I get atomic and nuclear physics. Always have.  Spent my whole working with it.

However, while I appreciate that this is an good article, I don't have enough of the terminology down to really grasp what is being said.

Kinda like trying to explain what the K-edge is good for to a finance guy.

Thanks for trying to educate me and keeping me informed, ZH.

I tell everyone (that I think can handle the truth) to read you.

Keep it coming and I'll keep reading (and trying to get it).

Buck Johnson's picture

That is correct that Primary dealers are required to bid, that is the bidders everyone see.  The ones that they give the wink and nod to. But inlfation and Hyperinflation is coming and it's going to be massive (you can see inflation already at the grocery stores).  I believe whats going to break this game is when states have to go to the Fed and demand a bailout for their economy.  What this will do is what the fed has been trying to stop, and that is getting those dollars into the market to buy goods and services.  Most of the bailout money and such has been locked up in bonds and Treasuries (ask yourself why banks have been slow in lending).  When the states get the money they will use it and it will be in the economy.

Grand Supercycle's picture

Previously mentioned EURO buying support has returned...


Pedro's picture

So is this correct:

Direct Bidders:  Primary Dealers-GS, JPM?

Indirect Bidders:  Foreing investors?


Is there a particular % range for these that are standard when auctions occur?