What To Expect As QE 2 Ends, And Why By The Time QE X Is Over "Bernanke Will Be The Biggest Landlord In The Country"

Tyler Durden's picture

We have long claimed that 2011 is playing out in a manner virtually identical to 2010, almost to the tic. And as we approach the end of QE2 in 6 weeks, a quick glance at what happened with stocks following the end of QE1 in March of 2010, will be illustrative of what to expect this time around, because contrary to what Comcast's business channel would want its ever declining viewers to believe, it never really is "different this time." To help with that comparison, here is a David Rosenberg summarizing what happened between the end of QE1 and Bernanke's August 27 announcement of QE2. If this is all it takes, then as we (and Scott Minerd earlier) have predicted, get ready for not only QE3, but 4, 5 and so forth. And not only that, but Rosie joins the likes of Zero Hedge, Minerd, Koo, Janjuah and all other pragmatics who realize that the Fed will never, never, allow deflation to run its course even if that means collateralizing the dollar with sewer bonds and physical housing, which incidentally is what Rosenberg predicts: "the day the QE programs run their full course, the Fed will have
likely added physical housing units to its balance sheet as opposed to
just mortgage paper. Ben Bernanke will be the biggest landlord in the
country at that time."

Rosie reminds what happened laste year between the end of QE1 and the surprise start of QE2

  • S&P 500 sagged from 1,217 to 1,064
  • S&P 600 small caps dell 394 to 330
  • The best performing equity sectors were telecom services, utilities, consumer staples and healthcar, in other words - the defensives The worst performers were financial, tech, energy, and consumer discretionary [sound familiar?]
  • Baa corporate spreads widened +59 bps from 237 bps to 296 bps
  • CRB futures index dropped from 279 to 267
  • Oil went from $84.30 a barrel to $75.20
  • The trade-weighted US dollar index (against major currencies) firmed to 76.5 from 75.5
  • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note plunged to 2.66% from 3.84%

and yet...

  • Gold was the commodity that bucked the trend as it acted as a refuge at a time of intensifying and financial uncertainty - to $1,235 an ounce from $1,140 and even with a more stable-to-strong U.S. dollar too.

In other words, for those who have forgotte, gold was the only commodity that outperformed and in fact rose, as at least someone had an inkling that QE 2 was coming...

And Rosie's prediction:

The Fed is seriously contemplating an end to QE2 but make no mistake, QE3 will come down the pike, but at completely different levels on everything. It is certainly not going to happen at 1,330 on the S&P 500 but we do know that the strike price last fall was 1,040 and lots of chatter of a 'double dip' recession.

Bernanke, Yellen and Dudley, in contrast to the Fed Bank Presidents, would love nothing more than to quickly embark on QE3 and keep economic growth above 2% but they do not have enough support on the FOMC or on Capitol Hill. But that day will come when we see QE3 and it will be the day when all the folks who are complaining and lamenting QE are lining up begging for it. (And, the day the QE programs run their full course, the Fed will have likely added physical housing units to its balance sheet as opposed to just mortgage paper. Ben Bernanke will be the biggest landlord in the country at that time.)

Which means that by then, the dollar will be collateralized by multi-family apartments, warehouses and, appropriately, sewer bonds. Which also means that the dollar will be approaching an inverse asymptotic valuation. Which, lastly, means that the Fed will be monetizing every last piece of paper to come out of the Treasury, as America changes its name to the United States of Weimar.

And for those who missed Minerd's thought on the issue earlier, here it is again from the horse's mouth.

Guggenheim Partners - Market Perspectives - The Case for More Monetary Elixir

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ZapBranigan's picture

Bernank Slumlord Bitchez!

Fish Gone Bad's picture

The Fed will buy up all the tranches and put the bonds back together again.  Yes, the Fed will indeed own everything that was securitized.

cat2's picture

Bernanke will not be the owner, he's just president.  The owner of these properties bought with dollars printed from thin air will be the shareholders of the Federal Reserve Bank.  And that is clearly... err...  ?????

cat2's picture

That boat on the top of the report is NICE.  That's the kind of boat only maid raping banksters can afford.

Xibalba's picture

dime a dozen nowadays...

camaro68ss's picture

Its my birthday today bitchez!!!!

If your wondering, a silver eagle is a good present

Michael's picture

Thank goodness the Federal Reserve is Federal, which means all the people of our country own that property, given the fact that the people are the government.

sgorem's picture

how bout a couple of spray cans of Red Rustoleum for that 68 Cam :)HBD.....

savagegoose's picture

happy birthday


1 silver eagle certificate , present in person to collect.

smlbizman's picture

please forgive ot. but earlier during obama speech , i could not help but notice that they had the tassels on the flags hidden, i am under the understanding that tassels = military rule. i think this went in place in the 70's...so them trying to conceal admits, finally, to there actual meaning?...once again i apologize for the interuption

Moe Howard's picture

I found this explaination, long read.


Hope it helps. I'm more distressed about the U.S. Constitution that he is using as a door mat rather than a flag he wouldn't even salute nor wear on his lapel during the campaign.

blunderdog's picture

No man, don't worry about it, that's a red-herring.  If we were under military rule, the gummit wouldn't have it's act together enough to make sure the flags had tassles in the first place.  Honestly it's a wonder they manage to make sure it's 50 stars.

ParaZite's picture

Eh, The Chinese make all of our American Flags... therefore your argument is invalid. 

YHC-FTSE's picture

It's the Maltese Falcon, the largest privately owned sailing super yacht in the world from the Perini Navi shipyard. Yours (2nd hand) for a bargain $100M.

Problem Is's picture

"Well, if you lose a son, it's possible to get another. But there's only ONE Maltese Falcon!"

Kasper "Fatman" Gutman

ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

if I remember correctly the Maiden Lanes have got boat loans in 'em...probably not that one

Fedophile's picture

Bernanke will not be the owner, he's just president.  The owner of these properties bought with dollars printed from thin air will be the shareholders of the Federal Reserve Bank.  And that is clearly... err...  ?????

It doesn't matter, the colateral provided by the UST to the Fed in it's creation was lent to the bankers who then bought the shares in the Fed. It's a 0 risk trade when UST defaults.


Votewithabullet's picture

Makes sense that the Bernanke is the Biggest slumlord, the Federal Gov is the largest land owner. Writings on the wall... I cant read it but I see the markings.

hamurobby's picture

Well some old guy in history named Thomas Jefferson warned us about this happening, ....but that was over fifty years ago, Shurley, no one was alive back then....

johnnynaps's picture

This population barely remembers the Katrina response time! If I were dictator, I would........!!!

Calculated_Risk's picture

LOL, careful.. robobitch will get offended.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Molon Labe, bitches.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Solid Recovery Bitchez™

WASHINGTON, D.C. – May 19, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported steady results in weekly rail traffic with U.S. railroads originating 294,271 carloads for the week ending May 14, 2011, up 1.6 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 231,875 trailers and containers, up 6.3 percent compared with the same week in 2010.

For the first 19 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,527,357 carloads, up 3.3 percent from last year, and 4,234,798 trailers and containers, up 8.8 percent from the same point in 2010.  Combined North American rail volume for the first 19 weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 7,196,689 carloads, up 3 percent compared with the same point last year, and 5,249,054 trailers and containers, up 8 percent compared with last year.


tmosley's picture

You keep saying that, but it never happens. It just keeps getting worse, and worse, and worse.

Tell us more about Mars, Calvin.


Spalding_Smailes's picture

About 4 weeks ago you took Silver, I had GLUU Mobile .... How's that crow soup, I made it extra spicy .... ???


MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., May 11, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.5 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in April, marking a continuation of the see-saw economic performance experienced over the past twelve months.

Year-over-year growth in April was again positive, up 3.5 percent. This was the seventeenth straight month of year-over-year improvement in the Index and a clear indication that the economic recovery continues. From an absolute standpoint, GDP remains ahead of the previous peak reached in Q4 07. But the PCI and industrial production are still about 5 percent below their previous peaks – meaning that the goods producing component of GDP is still well below its previous high.

“Over time, the PCI has shown a substantial correlation with industrial production,” explained Craig Manson, senior vice president and Index expert for Ceridian. “In fact, the PCI forecast of 0.8 percent growth in industrial production for March matched the estimate subsequently released by the Federal Reserve. This was the second straight month that the PCI matched the subsequent government estimate. Based on the relatively weak April result, the PCI is calling for growth of 0.25 percent in industrial production when the government reports its number on May 17.”
The PCI is not only closely correlated with industrial production, it has also shown a remarkable correlation with retail sales over the past ten years. This month, we have broadened the scope of the Index report to include a discussion of that relationship.



tmosley's picture

Why are you still doing odd jobs if you are such a great trader?

Answer: you aren't.

Also, you have only been "saved" by the last three days of trading, and more specifically, some new company giving it a "buy" rating. Good luck with that shit.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Odd jobs .... ? After my import / distributor license comes in that will be business number three ... Lol'


Make sure you fluff your boss before his euro vacation .... Fluffer Boy™ ... 

akak's picture

Everybody please stand at attention, as Spalding will now sing the national anthem of Trollistan:


Blankman's picture



I don't know why by I felt compelled to watch the whole ???song???  It just seems to keep going and going and going and....    

akak's picture

That is what I find so creepily funny about the thing --- it is instantly and obviously bad, Bad, BAD, yet it seems to compel almost everyone to keep watching, and to go back to and watch again and again!  Is this some novel form of Soviet mind control?

(It is from a 1970s Soviet television program, in point of fact.)

BigJim's picture

You're saying Akak is gay?

That's, like, devastating, man.

akak's picture

Yes, BigJim, I have to come out of the closet and admit it: I am gay.  But only for Spalding and MethMan --- they are such perfect and eager bottoms, I just CANNOT resist them!

Hey Spalding, you got a real purdy mouth ....

francis_sawyer's picture

Why would you even need a "business #3"???

Isn't CHINA paying you handsomely (in yuan) for those golden showers?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Why would you even need a "business #3"???


Why not ... ? 

I'm not expecting social security and I want to be in Marco Island when I'm 55 on a fishing boat. 

akak's picture

I want to be in Marco Island when I'm 55 on a fishing boat.

If there is any justice in the world, you WILL be on that fishing boat --- as chum.

The Profit Prophet's picture

Poor little Troll....haven't you heard? Marco Island will be a pillaged wasteland.  It currently holds down the 3rd spot on the "Place to find the Greedy Bastards who destroyed the economy" list of the pitchfork brigade.

T.E.I.N. everyone! 

boiltherich's picture

I thought the list was

1) Marin County

2) Suffolk County

3) Nantucket

4) K Street

5) Rancho Santa Fe/La Jolla

6) the State of Connecticut

and THEN the Florida Isles like Marco and Fisher

Though I had lobbied for Gestadt if it is winter in the number two spot and most importantly Dubai for all those that got away.

tmosley's picture

Spalding the delivery boy is starting a new business eh?  What's wrong, the delivery business drying up?  You stopped delivering BJs to the corrupt pols ordering lawn furniture from your pal?

Also funny that Spalding goes on and on about the strength of American manufacturing being strong, but is opening up an IMPORT business.  You should be exporting.  But you aren't.  Because there is nothing to export.

I should also note that our "bet" was made on April 15th, with a term of two weeks.  I won that shit, hardcore.  Funny that you decided to extend the term to today, when you are only "winning" by staying even.  That shit is funny right there.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Averaged $ 2,200.00 over the last 7 weeks. - taxes, -$350.00 in diesel ( now 3.79 and dropping )..... 

Printing is easy money. Shirts, letterhead, banners, ncr forms ect .... All from my computer.



 .... nice call on silver last month ( never below $35 again as you called for not 50, not 60 .... !!! ) Lol'