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What The First Greek Bailout Can Predict About Market's Direction Over The Next Few Days

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In days when vacuum tubes control the market with a sub-millisecond attention span, and contextual memory is irrelevant, the speculative audience may be forgiven if it has forgotten that the foregone conclusion of tomorrow's second Greek bailout (which will pass) is in any way unique. It isn't: it was just over a year ago today, on May 9, 2010 that Europe's Finance Ministers approved a trillion dollar rescue package aimed at ensuring financial stability across Europe by creating the European Financial Stability Facility. As part of the first bailout Greece got a €110 billion loan. One year later, and about 50% lower on Greek bonds, we are back, with Greece about to get a second, €120 billion+ (does anyone even know how big it is?) bailout, and there is not even one person alive who believes that within a year the third bailout of the insolvent Greek country (with even more stringent austerity measures) won't be on the table (even as the rating agencies are defending themselves in the Hague tribunal for crimes against humanity for their decision to proclaim the Greek bankruptcy as an "Event of Default'). But by then everyone will have printed another cool trillion or two, so who cares. It is all about the short-term. The expectation there is that the market will surge, surge, surge, once the event that has been priced in, gets repriced in over and over again, or something. Well, if history is any indication, as the chart below shows, those hoping for protracted market jump on tomorrow's vote will be disappointed.

We present the S&P performance in the week just before the May 9th announcement, and the two weeks later (incidentally, it is truly pathetic that $900 billion worth of QE2 can only buy not even 200 ES points in the past year). As can be seen in the highlighted candlestick, the market stages a nearly 30 point relief rally that Monday...only to fizzle two days later and to drop by over 100 point in the next 10 days (what happens next is irrelevant but ultimately was the reason for the launch of QE2).

So, now that we are in an identical situation, with just two more QE2 POMOs remaining, with comparable volume technicals (surge on escalator vapor, plunge on iceberg elevator), and with a Greek bailout catalyst, will the next two weeks see the S&P proceed to rise modestly to the 1,300 levels only to plunge immediately after down to the 1,200 level... and probably far lower since the Fed is now actively conspiring what is the best way to breach QE3/OT2 to the public.

 

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Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:36 | 1410325 chump666
chump666's picture

Markets just priced in the yes vote, cept the bet is on that a yes/no vote  will come through + Greeks rioting = total sell

The 2nd bailout will be a total flop, market is overpriced.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:48 | 1410340 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

+1

The mood is far more sour and vengeful this time. The country will burn when the vote is passed.

Furthermore the EU is juggling 4 other countries that are in the process of falling apart as well. 2 of which are too big to fail.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:01 | 1410360 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Time to break out the φανο? και τρ?αινες (torches and tridents).

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:50 | 1410437 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Why aren't people rioting elsewhere?

The answer: BPA

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/06/27/chemical-in-plastic-containers-mak...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:52 | 1410614 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I blame Sasha Fierce.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 04:24 | 1410916 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Mr Hendrix are you implying willful cunts are turning hot blooded American males into impotents?

Interesting theory...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:07 | 1410459 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

Nope not yet! Not when I can sip my new 'Merican flag patterned Budweiser. Now THIS is a recovery. lulz.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:39 | 1410505 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

'Merican flag Bud... owned by Belgians. LOL.

 

This country is but a shadow of it's former self... so sad.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:13 | 1410550 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

Shadow indeed.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:07 | 1410929 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Shadows and dust...

Shadows and dust. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:01 | 1410368 MS7
MS7's picture

I don't think the country will burn. In fact, if it doesn't, that will show that the "hooded youths" who cause all the trouble are really agent provocateurs. I will predict that the hooded ones won't be seen anymore after the vote, because then the mission will have been accomplished. So far the real protesters have been peaceful. They might throw some yoghurt or something, but they don't carry molotov cocktails... Still, the country will be ungovernable, as I believe there will be strikes without end.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:23 | 1410575 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

These are Europeans, they are commited

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:11 | 1410884 cahadjis
cahadjis's picture

We are Europeans, we are committed.

 

Seriously, we greeks are not cowards when it comes to being represented in parliament, as opposed to the whole of US who called in to complain about the 700billion bailout ... and then accepted it anyway without a whimper. Prepare for big fireworks if it';s a yes. And the politicians know this, being Greek too. So my bet is on a total rejection by a big margin.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:06 | 1410934 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

That's something that I really admire about you Europeans. When our government fucks us over, we gripe for 10 minutes, if that, then take a swig of cheap American beer and flip on reality TV. 

You guys burn a major metropolitan region to the ground. 

Say, any chance you could send some advisors over to the New World here to help us out? 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:46 | 1410430 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Delay and forget. This tactic will continue until all the people riot, not just the youth. This same trend will be seen in other european countries and someday in the US....unless the world wide community agrees to press the reset button for country debt. Personal debt will never get that.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:38 | 1410328 oogs66
oogs66's picture

they priced in the yes vote, and somehow decided the rollover the banks are falling all over themselves to participate in actually helps the Greeks and not the banks....haven't people learned that if the banks want to do something, it is probably not for someone else's benefit!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:45 | 1410329 Ahmeexnal
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:49 | 1410516 madmax1965
madmax1965's picture

Holy sh*t!  Yeah, if we could put that in the banksters martini's that would be awesome, however, why in the hell would someone willingly take that sh*t

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:01 | 1410719 awakened
awakened's picture

TPTB are both banker's and narcotrafficer's. They control the US govt and the NGO's (non governmental organizations). Drug profits fund the NGO's. It has been this way for a long time and will continue to be as such which is why we still have a problem in Mexico.

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/bill-conroy/2011/04/mexican-na...

I quit smoking pot a long time ago due to not knowing where it was coming from. My decision was confirmed as correct after reading on the narcosphere about mycobacteria being used to eradicate pot and other drugs in Colombia and other Latin American countries by the US. Since I dont live in California I wont risk inhaling any substance that could contaminate what I would otherwise use medicinally.

The US is experimenting with all kinds of nanobacteria and other things that are nasty and can be used in bioweaponry. What better population to experiment than with than drug addicts? Few people really care since they seem to deserve it after all, right? <sarcasm off>

You will see drug addicts with all kinds of sores on their bodies, now apparently flesh eating. The newly reported bath salt drugs that have been rampant in the EU and are not yet illegal in the US are reportedly causing violent reactions and zombie-like behavior in the US.

My question is who are the criminals here? the drug addicts, or the people who are marketing these new drugs and horrendously experimenting on an unsuspecting population that is powerless over their addiction?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:44 | 1410332 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's not identical.

There is a difference.

Oil.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:26 | 1410406 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And about a thousand other things as well, its not the same at all.

Hit that junkie with some more free smack and watch it keel over dead.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:46 | 1410334 Cdad
Cdad's picture

...with a sub-millisecond attention span...the speculative audience may be forgiven if it has forgotten that the foregone conclusion of tomorrow's second Greek bailout...

Now...what did you say Tyler?  Could you repeat that thing about last year?  I have already forgotten since you wrote this post.

Thanks.

Cdad


 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:50 | 1410341 chump666
chump666's picture

The meltups were mania based.  When you have average Greek protesters saying the bailout is for French and German banks...I mean, there is no way a yes vote will be successful.

Brave traders betting against the trend.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:44 | 1410515 monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

 I don't consider myself brave, I consider myself crazy.  Though I have been and will be a buyer of EUO under 17.  I'm expecting to be able to sell it in the mid to low 20's in a few months, but, like I said, I am crazy.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:55 | 1410344 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

no-one on wall street believes the market will be allowed to set rates on the long end and they damn well know it is zirp 4 evah on the short end so nothing has materially changed to cause a market selloff. stock market sez: show me the 10y at 6% instead of three bitchez.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1410389 Modus
Modus's picture

100% agreed. in my opinion rates are the most important factor for the rally (resilience) in equities. i was teached the dividend-discount model in my first capital markets seminar and everyone who understands this model, will understand why stocks were and may still are a buy.

more fundamentaly i am bearish too. but from a perspective of the time value of moeny it makes much sense to be in equities. simple as that.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:26 | 1410397 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

In March 2009 one could have stepped effortlessly from t-bonds into stocks as if s/he were stepping off the bow of Titanic and onto an iceberg. It won't be so easy this time imo as it will have to be the reverse in operation. i.e. the bond market must crash first for there to be a big selloff in equities. That would cause unprecedented volatility, even bigger than the stock and junk bond crash of '08 - '09. Nobody believes it will happen, not even me.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:52 | 1410441 Modus
Modus's picture

well opportunities come and go... that´s what markets are like. however i think if fundamentals should seriously weaken further this will be felt in equities. how fixed income and credit will trade after QE is running out is unclear to me although i too think a crash in bonds is highly unlikely in the near future.

how the financial marktes would look like in a bond crash still makes me thinking that we are indeed in unchartered territory here

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:11 | 1410464 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

of course they might balance the budget thus stabilizing the treasury market. :snickers:

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:30 | 1410488 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I believe it is the euro/usd and their respective liquidity, not rates nor the s+p that are in the drivers seat at this point in time. Trichet could print a trillion euro and the sp and bond market might only quiver as the invisible hand on this side of the pond may levitate them at the same time. Who knows for sure, but relative correlations seem broken in the new normal.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:35 | 1410501 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you are making the chicken/egg argument. if usa rates weren't artificially low i doubt what you wrote would exist for long. the 10y didn't even get to 4% last year before the equity market (egg) cracked. You are describing a symptom, we are discussing a causal relationship.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:12 | 1410548 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Modus

 i was teached the dividend-discount model in my first capital markets seminar and everyone who understands this model, will understand why stocks were and may still are a buy.

I understand CAPM, but did anyone ever teached (sic) you about the failures of closed systems?  Applying CAPM at this stage of the game is similar to digging a latrine with Hurricane Katrina bearing down on New Orleans: you will still be knee deep in shit when the storm hits.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:55 | 1410345 Confuchius
Confuchius's picture

It would be interesting to have a picture of "the vacuum tubes controlling the market(s)".

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:51 | 1410347 vegas
vegas's picture

No vote: lookout below, can you say 1.3000 or below in the next week?

Yes vote: Wait for the Johnny-come-lately, thinly funded shorts to bail. Maybe 50 - 100 pips in a flash, and then lookout below. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

 

Aside from sovereign bank buying to punish the shorts the last week or so, can anybody seriously make the case for a long EUR/USD position lasting more than 5 minutes?

 

Once this farce is over, the real crisis starts, i.e. putting the austerity measures  into force. With strikes, riots, and a lower living standard, anybody seriously think Greece GDP has a snowballs chance in hell of growing? I didn't think so.

Long the 1.4400 / 1.3400 put spread 8 weeks out. May chaos reign.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:53 | 1410352 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

This market is JACKED on hopium.

I believe it will SOAR tomorrow, but of course it is empty air beneath it and it will quickly fold back in on itself.

My guess?

Up huge tomorrow, maybe 200-250 points.

Thursday flat.

Friday down the crapper.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:07 | 1410371 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I believe it will SOAR tomorrow, but of course it is empty air beneath it and it will quickly fold back in on itself.

And if the Greeks set the parliament building on fire?  You think the forward looking discount mechanism known as the market will be balls to the walls bullish that Greece is fixed...again?

And if they don't set the parliament building on fire, but Italian and Irish CDS widens to new all time highs after a yes vote? Then what?

It is the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street has changed the word "investing" to "risk on/risk off."  I would suggest to you this is far from some sort of binary event....but I look forward to your response.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1410409 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Europe on fire...yes all the hot air could possibly cause an updraft for the bubble market zeppelin, but Im not betting on it.

I got a feeling everyone will be surprised bigtime and its the biggest sell the news crash day in memory.

The stupid DOW was at 11,800 only a few days ago, this is all ridiculous.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 02:43 | 1410871 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The Greeks won't set the parliament on fire.  The vast majority of protestors are civil servants, sent out with the approval of their masters (trades unions and politicians) to put pressure on the EU not to be too harsh.  Trades unions know they have to accept, or they default.  A default will annihilate the pension funds, especially the trade union ones that have bought all sorts of crap, so they cannot allow this to happen.  All this posturing is powerful people covering their arses so their individual crimes are not exposed.  Once new austerity measures are passed, everyone will get back to what they do best - working out how to extract the most for least effort from the system and they'll laugh at the stupid Germans who somehow think hard work is the route to affluence.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:41 | 1410502 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I have tried heroin before also, buddy.

In all seriousness. Investing in the stock market is suicide. Just buy Gold and sit this manipulation BS out.

I sleep great at night with my Gold in my closet safe and my Glock on my nightstand.

Once Greece falls, the dominoes will fall unravel quickly. Max Keiser even sees the US as the next disaster after Greece, I agree. This debt crisis is about to blow up in everyone's faces. The politicians will be panicking worse than 2008.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:33 | 1410585 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thats right.

I have 30% gold now, I plan on going 80% in a few days.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:09 | 1410645 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

such a huge adjustment in a short period of time. I suggest you upgrade to 50% then wait for another dip, then increase exposure to PMs. 

No matter what the investment, you shouldn't shift around more than 50% of your entire networth into one trade.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:03 | 1410723 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

These summer prices will be history in 5 months. Even if the COMEX price crashes in another meltdown, bullion banks will close and physical will be unavailable at any price. then its too late

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:20 | 1410752 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

agreed. I, myself, 80% PMs. I don't trust crash. History is completely against it

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:31 | 1410765 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

You learn something new everyday. 

This is quite true.  Today we learn baby_B now has a "glock".

Do you keep that thing closer to your tampons or your makeup, baby?

Does Peter Schiff make you wet? 

If I learn the answer to that question tomorrow (along with the results of the Greek vote) I will consider it a good day...I never look for much out of Wednesdays.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:14 | 1410809 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Somebody flagged this as junk so I take it as license to post this:

> You do realize we live in a world where the government pays people to stop the truth from spreading via the internet, right?  Truth is stranger than fiction.

> Once you realize that, regardless of whether you think baby_B, Spitzer (or Vic Vinegar) is a government employee, you must realize the good guys have a 0.0% chance of winning.

So I say have fun playing the markets, as corrupt as they are.  At least it's a way to pass the time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMxX-QOV9tI

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:32 | 1410820 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Xtra junks just means I get to riff until I fall asleep.  Show yourself, fruitie.

Comment taken from a worthless Stone Street Advisors article today:

Some of us are doomers because we see a one world gov’t, cashless society, 500 million people on the planet future ahead of us and we missed the runup in LULU. :-)

For many a dark hour I have been thinking about the duality in that sentence above.  Ultimately all we can do is live the golden rule in our personal lives.  For myself, I’ll keep on trading stocks in this crime-scene of a market in the meantime…I’ve gambled in filthier, more depraved places before anyway.

Thanks Zero Hedge for the greater understanding of the world and for the therapy. 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:55 | 1410833 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Since I gotta roll now, let's leave it at this:

  • Blythe, I'm gonna be on you like white on rice, like ltjohnrichard on RobotTrader. 
  • 9/11 was indeed an inside job.  Did baby_B tell you that or talk to you about her glock?
  • Who gives a fuck about the two comments above...most of us are just  gamblers at heart. Myself, I'm pissed about missing out on LULU.  I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA

 

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 08:17 | 1411172 KingdomKum
KingdomKum's picture

+100

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:05 | 1410367 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Not this time, but sometime soon people will stand and refuse the bankers. 

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:10 | 1410378 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

If Athens burns, look for another banker ordered "humanitarian" war to protect the interests of the IMF ECB and the sexual needs of the UN peacekeepers (looking for more indiginous females to rape).

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:12 | 1410380 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Greece may pass this, but I don't think they will do the austerity no way.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1410411 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all auserity, did you read the plan? Its total insanity!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:59 | 1410447 blindman
blindman's picture


"Here are a few things to keep in mind when you are reading articles about the European Debt Crisis:
– The flow of funds — euros — overseas toward energy producers in the Middle East and elsewhere represents a great portion of insolvent countries’ cash flow.
– That the flow of funds between one European country and others in foreign currency — euros — represents another great portion of insolvent countries’ cash flow. These are the funds swapped for automobiles, auto- related ‘development’ and fuel- guzzling military hardware.
– The funds to energy producers is simply money borrowed then lost. There is no return other than that gained on the purchase/sale of the energy products. Money borrowed from the European establishment likewise produced no lasting effect. Borrowing was for waste- enablers such as luxury cars, new highways, shopping centers, and American- style suburbs rather than capital for productive enterprises. In this light, the euro is a predatory instrument like a sub-prime mortgage.
– The Euro- nations with greater finance access are using this leverage to buy a small amount of time at the expense of their dependent trading partners. Meanwhile, the time- buying process destroys whatever goodwill the euro experiment earned since the currency union idea was bruited. Instead of accord, it is devil take the hindmost. What trust citizens had in their institutions is now a ruin in Syntagma Square crushed by an insensitive and counterproductive ‘Troika’.
– Ironically, the same countries’ workforces are now accused of being ‘uncompetitive’ by the same entities that rendered them uncompetitive. If there is a more perverse and diabolical dynamic it is hard to see what it is.
– The European countries at the edge of default cannot afford to do so. The Eurozone debtors cannot be compared to Argentina or Iceland as neither countries are energy debtors."
....
Europe’s fuel- driven waste- based lifestyle is kaput, the goods bought and borrowed against for purchase are useless, the fuel used once then gone: all borrowed to gain this is noncollectable. The money has been spent and gone, it is ‘Dead Money’.""

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:36 | 1410589 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Explaining the US dollar ?^

Europe as a whole is a net creditor so what you just wrote applies to the dollar, not the Euro.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:49 | 1410608 blindman
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:05 | 1410725 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

undertow should look under the hood of the dollar before it goes on a rant like that

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 08:30 | 1411197 blindman
blindman's picture


under the hood, huge imbalances and contradictions
on both sides of the pond.
.
RSA Animate – Crises of Capitalism
Posted on June 29, 2011 by maxkeiser
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/06/29/rsa-animate-crises-of-capitalism/

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:57 | 1410953 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Greece obviously failed to earn enough from using the fuel to pay its energy bill otherwise it would not be insolvent.

 

Discussion on this ground is impossible in this US driven world, duplicity is simply too high.

In this world drowned with US propaganda, any inference drawn from production is consumption is unwelcome.

 

Greece will have to consume less, and this includes a higher rate of unemployment as labour is a drain on resources. In the US world order, with producers producing more than they consume, working longer hours meaning consuming less, this fact is lost.

 

So here's a repeat: a new wave of colonization is being triggered. That is the only collapse that is going to happen as tons of people who can no longer be employed on their area will move elsewhere.

The Chinese wont have to developp an aggressive military force but a defensive one as once again, the West will pour its useless on the rest of the world.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:02 | 1410961 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Ironically, the same countries’ workforces are now accused of being ‘uncompetitive’ by the same entities that rendered them uncompetitive. If there is a more perverse and diabolical dynamic it is hard to see what it is.

 

There is nothing ironic in this, it is the US way of doing things. Only normalcy. Heaps of examples to show that it is a permanent bit of UScitizenism (americanism)

That is the past and all story. The US is a bully or better, bullies are the embodiment of the US spirit, they trash down a guy, break a limb or two, then say it is all over and see no relation between their beating and the fact the guy moves slowlier than before. It is the past, nothing personal and stuff...

Another evidence that the US is not the solution, the US is the problem.

As the Europeans want to emulate their fellow US citizens, well, that is the result...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:12 | 1410383 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Mkt: Shades of 1987 ... September, 1987.

Greece: deserved outrage for being treated badly, being self- destructive as a consequence ... everyone knows how to 'do the Paulson' including street protesters.

EU/IMF/ECB: the lack of imagination is appalling. LaGarde's Adolf Hitler impression is funny but not helpful. The so- called responsible parties' should start acting responsibly. Believe it or not, the Establishment's banking clients don't produce anything of value and everyone knows it.

This is what peak oil looks like: riots rather than gas lines. The PIIGS are Europe's energy deadbeats. They cannot pay for fuel. Look for Greece, Portugal and Ireland to be car- free within a year or two.

RE: fuel deadbeats, the US is more like Greece than conventional economics might suggest. America = huge debts and not enough domestic fuel to service them.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:14 | 1410386 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Uh...this government is doomed, so any austerity agreements they make are doomed as well. Maybe the European banksters expect them to shoot their own people?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1410388 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Winding the clock for the end

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:20 | 1410394 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 I hope and pray that

 the vote is yes and they take the Germans' money

 and spend it on ouzo and throw giant party . Old Greeks who remember WWII

 laugh at Germans and dance in streets with signs that say "payback's a bitch"

 No matter what Greek politicians decide, Greeks still will not pay taxes or let

 their country be auctioned off. Zorba will dance in streets with them.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:24 | 1410402 MS7
MS7's picture

Ha! I like that.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1410405 magpie
magpie's picture

Just take it and buy a new BMW.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:20 | 1410395 banksouttacontrol
banksouttacontrol's picture

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:21 | 1410396 chump666
chump666's picture

The funny thing is, oil goes bid, which is a another tax on the Greeks and everybody else.  So, the brave Greek politicians that vote against this will be heroes in Greece.  The country should allow a default sending the panic to the greedy French and German banks. 

Won't mean much to the Greeks...

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:29 | 1410401 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Crackhead free drugs market about to overdose on all the free junk injections.

Its not a carbon copy of anything today from a year ago, things will crash and burn far faster than people imagine. No one is buying this crap anymore except fools.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:57 | 1410446 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hey....you talkin to me? Who you be callin a fool? Me, robotrader, greeny?

I remember an economist at one point who missed out on a british cyclical bull. Wish I could remember his name...he admitted his jealousy and said "those stupid people made a lot of stupid money."

Adam Hamilton believes we have a little ways to go. Why not try to pick up five percent here before fleeing back into the warm comforting embrace of king dollar?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:34 | 1410416 chump666
chump666's picture

When I watch footage of the Greeks protesting and how educated they are about the BS coming from the Greek leaders, ECB, Germany, France, IMF...it's quite inspiring.  The people actually want a default, a punishment to the bankers.  Good stuff! 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:35 | 1410593 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Max Kieser gave them a crash course in ponzi economics. haha, good to see

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 02:01 | 1410840 chump666
chump666's picture

100% worked.  They interviewed this girl maybe 16 17 talking like the people on the website.

Great stuff! 

Sun Tzu style is that the Greeks (leaders) are making a meal of this and taking too long, which means the Greek people (majority) are now restless and demoralized.  This whole thing is gonna collapse so bad it's almost priced in...almost...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:42 | 1410423 dcb
dcb's picture

I've got 1320 on the s and P

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:43 | 1410425 chump666
chump666's picture

from IFR markets:

SYDNEY June 29 (IFR) - Overnight price action has made it clear that markets want to get past the Greek debt refinancing issue without caring much as to whether the problem will be resolved in the short term. Still given that the ECB has made it clear that the Greek parliament has to approve the new austerity measures or else (decision expected lunchtime London time), the result remains a potential market mover. Furthermore their implementation would appear to be almost impossible given the rioting etc on the streets of Athens - forcing the markets to once again revisit the potential for a Greek debt default and the risk that this contagion would spread to Portugal, Italy (even though they announced overnight a willingness to get their fiscal houses in order), Spain and Ireland. As for funding, Bloomberg had a report out overnight claiming that Standard Chartered had stopped European bank lending. If others follow, along with an ECB rate rise, then expect EU growth to be negatively impacted as a result.
    For a detailed review of the French "Brady bond" proposal for Greek debt holders please see our update here:http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/06/FBFProposal.doc .IFR thinks that given the French investor ownership of Greek debt amounts to 22% of the total, the market may be getting a little carried away (remember that the ratings agencies have yet to comment on the plan), though German support for the concept overnight was seen as heartening. As it stands at present however, the markets are not interested in the Greek austerity package (if passed) or the French Brady bonds solution as long as Greece fixes its budgetary and debt problems without investors having to take a haircut.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:48 | 1410442 thepigman
thepigman's picture

>Still given that the ECB has made it clear that the Greek parliament has to approve the new austerity measures or else (decision expected lunchtime London time), the result remains a potential market mover. Furthermore their implementation would appear to be almost impossible given the rioting etc on the streets of Athens - forcing the markets to once again revisit the potential for a Greek debt default.<

 

Catch-22, bitchez

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:02 | 1410449 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The market will revisit the potential of a greek debt default at some point again in the future. An irrational relief rally is accompanying the vote which appears to be a foregone conclusion, even though politicians hate tough votes with awful repercussions no matter how they vote....merely sturm and drang if i remember my german.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:40 | 1410426 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Hoping your theory is right Tyler.....I've got my Aug DIA 119 puts in place.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:20 | 1410563 chump666
chump666's picture

you'll need to run the VIX realtime re: pending vote.  I am brave, it's puts for me too index and FX risk trades.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:41 | 1410427 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

incidentally, it is truly pathetic that $900 billion worth of QE2 can only buy not even 200 ES points in the past year

LOL! Indeed. By trying to fix the pieces they break the whole damn game in the process. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:45 | 1410435 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

O.K., WTF - why do my posts not post? 

Sheepdog, Cdad - when does any of this shit matter?  China, Fuck-you-shima, peak oil, OPEC, Euro this-Euro that, Greece (its now a verb...), rare earths, Kleptocrats (here, there & everyfuckinwhere).....when does it buckle under the weight of the bullshit? 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:40 | 1410594 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It all will buckle, and it is oil that will make it happen.  

It's the only thing that cannot be printed.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:52 | 1410443 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Is this new “European Financial Stability Facility” anything like the …

“Exchange Stabilization Fund”?

… what's the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” ? …

… see below (2 short videos, 9min each, with lots of references) …

WHAT I HAVE BEEN AFRAID TO BLOG ABOUT

The ESF and Its History_Part 1          The ESF and Its History_Part 2

               ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Hey Tyler, I found a ZH fan …

Greek Army Threatens Military Coup Sparking Fears of Military Uprisings And Civil Wars Breaking Out Across All Of Europe

Clipped out of context …

I recently wrote that the Greek Revolution has succeeded and the Government agreed to step down and create a new Government.

 

 

That announcement came amidst violent protests, and as Tyler Durden pointed out, was nothing but a bold face lie meant to placate the masses.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:18 | 1410453 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

Possible Miltary Coup?

Even the CIA has mentioned it possible...

Enough with the bankers!!!

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:00 | 1410448 Trillax
Trillax's picture

Once.  Just once, I would like to see the correct and viable decision be made.  Not the one that was made in 2008 to 'extend and pretend' this madness for three years...

The actual, real, honest outcome to this nonsense: the system is fucked and nobody with a PhD (or otherwise) has the answer -- because the true 'answer' is so astronomically fucked up if it was explained in "Fischer Price" terms to the Sheeple people would already be swinging from lamp posts.  The true answer is a complete and comprehensive reset from point A-to-point-B. 

Full admission that this round TPTB fucked up and we let them via acknolwedgement and also by apathy.  We rested on our laurels and got lazy and hence we reaped what we sowed -- corruption from one end of the segment to the other and the masses let it happened.

We let multimedia pacify us.
We turned off our brains.
We forgot about guarding our liberties for the sake of convienence.
We did it all while expecting a free ride and jerking off to the self-pacification they spoon fed us and liked it.

What we won't like is the consequences and the outcome.  The wailing and gnashing of teeth will be great and we will have deserved every single solitary bit of it because we did not heed the call of history and prescidence.

Greece; cast off the bonds of your masters and stand the tide.  I know you won't, but I pray you will.  If you were to be as bold, I think you would find people that would stand next to you of like mind and give you company in your hour.  You have to be courageous and belive that the principal is greater than the threat.

One mans wish who know it won't happen.  Such a sad time.  I'll go back to planning and drinking now.  Sorry for the rant.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:03 | 1410454 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I support greek default too, and would love to lose money betting on the wrong side....

but at this point in time the greeks will vote to extend and pretend a little bit longer

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:59 | 1410451 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Last 3 months, last 5 days of month all up on corrupt painting the tape.

 

http://www.nextbigtrade.com/2011/06/28/window-dressing-and-sector-rotation/

 

Decapitate the Banksters, one by one. Then move to Congress.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:09 | 1410455 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

+1  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:10 | 1410457 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Another buy on Monday sell on Wednesday type week.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:07 | 1410458 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Let's get this vote settled so banksters can hit the beach already!

Good lord these Greeks with their demands! 

As if austerity isn't actually a good thing. Builds character! Makes you a better person! It's really a gift when you think about it. 

 

Anyhoo they're waiting in Montauk to find out if we're having that polo party or not. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:16 | 1410472 booboo
booboo's picture

Please dispense with the "Greek Bailout" meme. Call it what it is, Bank Bailout. In a real world where real risk is allowed with the ensuing consequence of immediately getting your dick cut off for making bad bets by a nightly clearing house with a "pay the fuck up or else" window manned by big men with guns this shit would not last ten seconds much less years. But instead they have made a deal in which your children will claw at the barren earth until their fingers bleed looking for the means to pay these cock suckers bar tab off.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:27 | 1410484 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Banks...Nations...what's the difference?

It all comes out of the same dang printing machine anyway.

We're all one big happy global-statist family now. You can have a bite of mine and I'll have a bite of yours and everyone else's. Your debt is my debt is our debt is their debt. What a glorious world this will soon be when we finally declare the central bankers 'our great leaders without who's grandiloquence the world would not be able to shop as often' 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:19 | 1410473 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ok.  so, this is what the troika (EU, IMF, & banksters) came outa there with less than a coupla weeks ago, right?   the stuff that zH published earlier, today, outa great britain?

in spite of all the sleight of hand, shell games, disclaimers, lying junckerz, arraignments, elections, court cases, finiminis, riots, T shirts, various prime ministers facing off/freaking out and an unwillingness to intimate how high the moon,...

YouTube - Ferrante and Teicher - How High The Moon

...tyler says stick a freaking fork in it.  i hope SNL does a skit interviewing the parliamentarians escaping thru the ancient and secret tunnel, now beautifully remodeled at IMF expense!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:27 | 1410482 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

I am so sick of this crap!  Yes, the Greeks should stick it to the bankers, the reason being that if the bankers can't stand the prospect of losing their money, then don't lend it out - plain and simple!  If you do lose your money, lend it out more carefully, next time.  Let's not make this more complicated than it needs to be.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9uqPeIYMik

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:34 | 1410493 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Booboo,

well said!!! This should be shouted from the mountain tops!!!! ++++++ to infinity!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:37 | 1410497 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

CAIRO, June 29 (Reuters) - Police fired teargas in Cairo's central Tahrir Square overnight Wednesday at several hundred mainly Egyptian youths, some of whom threw stones and demanded that trials of former senior officials proceed more swiftly.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:42 | 1410509 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 This is not the first time Greeks have faced austerity and difficult times. During the

 1970s under an oppressive military government, many Greeks left their homeland in 

 search of a better life. They settled in USA and Canada and throughout Europe.

 But they never lost their most precious asset, their passion for life. If you have traveled 

 to Greece and taken the time to get to know the Greek people, you know what

 I am mean. The Greek spirit will not be broken by this crisis. Like Zorba the Greek,

 when it all comes crashing down, they will shrug their shoulders, down a few ouzos,

 break some dishes on the floor, and dance. OOPAH!!!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:21 | 1410572 chump666
chump666's picture

Look the Greeks are doing the right thing and they will win, send a shock wave to the arrogant French and Germans...and English.  I love the dutch through.

Looking at footage of teens saying (i don't understand greek...but they had broken english) "down with the bankers" etc.  HELL yeah!  Good stuff.

Go nuts

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:47 | 1410511 wannabe traitor
wannabe traitor's picture

LOL. Every empire comes to its knees eventually. Greed is one helluva bitch

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:02 | 1410532 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think I need to start spending more time outside, im losing my mind reading this insane bullshit everyday.  I could just refer to my graph on the wall that ends in the "we're fucked' area and not worry about the day to day horseshit.  But not tommorow, I want to see how some stuff turns out. LOL.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:15 | 1410559 madmax1965
madmax1965's picture

+1

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:58 | 1410533 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Greeks have always been an entertaining and life-loving bunch.  This just adds to the overall image.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:24 | 1410571 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Wow, $250 billion for Greece so far? Chaos, and Greece is just the appetizer.

The poor little troika still has to worry about Ireland/Belgium/Portugal/Italy/Spain. It'll be interesting to see what level of violence the Greek army and NWO is prepared to use. This is not a good way to make a first impression.

"...You are very, very dangerous people indeed!" --- Nigel Farage, to EU members

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:29 | 1410584 Fix It Again Timmy
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:39 | 1410600 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Okay, so Greece bailout is in the bag, Obama will tell America tomorrow at 11:30am that the debt ceiling will be raised, and Bernanke will say risk on across the globe....kick the can will never end.

DOW +350  S&P +35 tomorrow,   every muckhead out there is calling for 1360 S&P before any falloff.  Let's wait and see who provides the magic futures when Benny is finished on Thursday with his POMO experiment, well at least until the next one comes in September.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:26 | 1410669 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You should join us muckheads then. The hardest part is learning how to position early....to anticipate the anticipation. I dont think the rally will be that big. We may even have a flat day or a small sell off, but the bad news is all out, so the next few weeks at least ought to be good for stocks.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:30 | 1410814 chump666
chump666's picture

the rally is/already happened. It's a sell the fact next.  Plus i think Athens will explode on a yes vote...total FUBAR trade coming.  Look at the CHF, 

Major sell on a yes/no.

I am brave, plus gotta buy my girl in NYC some new shoes and Japanese dinner  + some tequila for me

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:43 | 1410698 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

You better pray to sweet baby jesus that Ron Paul gets elected and here's why:

Networks fail.  In a big way, due to hypercorrelation.  Seen in water waves, networks and markets, hypercorrelation is responsible for "fat tails" and systemic failure.  75% of the world is in debt, to each other.  How can that be?  No one wants a reset because someone holds the bag.  The last one standing will be the winner, and that's a toss up between China and Russia.  For America to survive the tsunami piss wash of hypermegaglobalbankercorps, we're going to have to "get god" in terms of rule of law and fast.  Peckersniff Obama doesn't know how to do anything but "compromise" - like that's some real accomplishment.  Each party is stacked to the hilt with yes-tard bank fuckers trying to pillage the wholly living shit out of everything that moves and sending massive ordinance at anything that gets in the way.  The pigshit media enforces a 5th grade mental state throughout the nation.  Half the nation works for the cartel through the syndicate of the US Govt, or the corporations that seek to enslave.

Welcome to the Dark Ages.  You get to be a corrupt fucking phallus in collusion with other dicks, or a bleeding asshole getting the whole life reamed out of you and your family.  You choose.

 

Turn your back on the pigs.  No more class president elections, turn off the sewer heads on TV.

Realize we have to have a philosophical change.   No one can make their living by inflicting fear and violence on another.  Central government is getting in the way of human advancement.

Evolve or devolve.  We're at the cusp.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:22 | 1410754 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Sweet rant. Bravo.

Let the Greeks be Greeks. God save the queen and all that rot.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:45 | 1410895 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

great stuff. this is the conclusion i came to months ago, but unfortunately it would take everyone coming to this conclusion themselves, individually. which will never happen. it is just tragedy. life is tragedy. humans are born and doomed to die within 50 to 100 years. We may very well be embarking upon dark ages. I am almost 30 and I am still seriously contemplating whether I actually WANT to have children. The world may look like one of these fucked up science fiction future mutant cannibal movies in 5 to 15 years...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:36 | 1410769 Juice Box
Juice Box's picture

The Greeks are to Europe as California is to the U.S.  Just ask yourself how Californians would react if they had their benefits cut very very deep?  

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:48 | 1410832 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Yes vote is priced in and it doesn't matter if they pass it because it'snot going to solve the problem, but these policymakers like to look strong and in control in the short term only to screw the rest of us in the long term and so the cycle continues.

Hard to go long from here but at the same time they will look to ounish shorts for doubting their 'solutions'.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:50 | 1410836 chump666
chump666's picture

On wires French GDP down, now lets see if the rating agencies dig the 'Argentinian' style French/German plan of rolling over debt.

lets see how far these a-holes kick the can...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 02:34 | 1410862 manure
manure's picture

So this is now the gameplan: instead of buying a couple of months or a year they are now buying a couple a decades solely betting on the economy outgrowing softened borrowing conditions. Fair enough, at least at is a plan. Now they are talking decades I think they forgot to take this unholy generational change of the guard into consideration, you know flat broke babyboomers outgoing and a pussified pisspoor educated millenium generation incoming, let alone a middle class booby trapped with with a rotting housing market. All in all a glorious start for the decade of back to basics.        

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 09:18 | 1411445 Scipionz
Scipionz's picture

''Buy the rumor, sell the news.... ''

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