What goES Up, Must Plunge Down

Tyler Durden's picture

And just as the regular traing session, which is now obviously composed exlusively of the occasional bipolar lunatic and a whole lot of 'buy only' algorithms, levitated stocks above the inferno of Japanese reality, so the after hours session provides a convenient buffer for all those who have access to daily ES trading to take advantage of old mom and pop who are stuck with their IBM shares until tomorrow's gap down, and reintroduce gravity to the equation. Behold afterhours futures trading, er, sliding. Japan opens in an hour and a half. Bring your fireman's helmet.

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ZeroPower's picture

1270s now. Whatever, same thing can happen overnight back to 1250s, you'll know where to gun for tomorrow with your longs. I.e. higher.

Cdad's picture

WTF are  you talking about?  You are the asshat that was calling for higher markets not three hours ago.  Shut it, you fuck!  Calling lower levels now are you?

Got it...zerocred!


ZeroPower's picture

Yes, i called for a higher market at close, and what happened?

We can get to a lower level overnight than the close, thats fine. I just dont see us getting lower low - barred any meltdown. I suggest you re-read my post from earlier today as it seems youre quite gun-ho with mindless responses.

Cdad's picture

I suggest you re-read my post from earlier today

Well, I think you should fuck off, you twat.  I know what you said, and I know what you are.  In volatile markets, guys like you are utterly fucking useless.  One or two 180 degree twists from now will make my point.

So my suggestion is that you should dig down into your pants and find your stones, you fuck!

ZeroPower's picture

I dug, but all i found were your SPY $134 longs.

dark pools of soros's picture

are you the bipolar lunatic TD is talking about?

Absinthe Minded's picture

That was pretty funny, douche bag or not.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I am not feeling the love here fellow ZHers.

Paul Krugman's picture

Wow its getting chippy around here. Everybody should calm down. We have technical breakdowns in almost all indexes. Below 50 dma, and 10 dma beginning to cross 50 dma in most indexes. They can't hold this thing up forever. But the harder they try the better chance for a one off crash adjustment.


The thinking espoused on this site will be proven unequivocally right eventually. 

Cdad's picture

What a useless douche bag.  You made your call today late afternoon [after the reversal was HOURS old].  If you measure the progress of the VXX from the point of your call until now, you will see how your useless call became diametrically opposed to the VXX price action [which is long vol...since you seem intellectually limited].

But if you want to be a big talking hero...make your call 30 minutes into the open market session...ok hero!

And do me a favor and try not to reffer to me when you are digging you your pants, you fuck.

If you knew the first thing about me, you would know I predominantly sell short...and would NEVER buy calls on the useless Roach Motel [SPY].

But hey...whatever it takes to keep your fantasy afloat that you are a hero day trader extraordinaire!


ZeroPower's picture

lol. Firstly, VXX is a horrible proxy for a vol play. Im gonna assume you know the most obvious reasons..

Secondly, what i (or anyone on teh interwebs) says is up to them. Even if theyre wrong. In my case, i'm not wrong (yet...) though i realize i could be. Until then i stand by my comment that were going higher. If we don't, thats a shame, you can bust out your meany words then.

Finally, you were the one that brought up my pants, digging, and stones (im assuming you alluded to my balls this way - VERY clever!) so again, i urge you to re-read things before you post. It won't make you look like a fool later.

Cdad's picture

Again, an utterly useless post. 

You are right, you can say whatever you like here.  And I can tell you what I think of your bitch posts.

We'll talk in the morning then.  Maybe then you will be ready to commit to some sort of feasible strategy.

As for me, I am well aware of the issues associate with VXX...and then again I am aware of a tremendous price dislocation there [between the near and the spot] that I'm pretty sure is going to work nicely.

We shall see, zerocred.

Abiggs's picture

Cbad relax - Zero is one of the few active posters with financial/trading experience; too bad same can't be said about you...

You might want to check yourself before you wreck yourself

walküre's picture

What's your opinion on Canadian lumber companies going forward? Someone from there suggested that lumber might be the next gold because of massive 2x4 construction efforts when the proverbial dust (hopefully not nuclear) has settled in Japan. Rebuilding 1 million houses or so with Canadian lumber would have a considerable upside for that otherwise down and out industry following the US housing crash.

ZeroPower's picture

Love it. Am not personally invested in any so wouldnt know what specific reco's to give, but we still have much cheaper lumber rates than the States. Despite NAFTA, the US imposes a ridiculous VAT on most lumber imports from the provinces (to the US). This makes our lumber slightly less competitive, but i remember reading it was still cheaper than finding an American producer.

Applying this to Japan, I doubt theres any sort of FTA there, and plus you have Russia who's much closer with the same endless reserves of wood.. but all in all it seems like a low risk/higher reward bet. Also worth looking into some metal plays like silver and aluminum which will need to be used up and are mined here.

Orly's picture

I was just thinking, "Aluminum?"

Seems that metal would conform more to earthquake building codes than wood.  I'm just guessing, though.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Buildings need to be flexible rather then just have a high compression strength.

Long Bamboo Bitches.

walküre's picture

might be something to consider.

is there even enough bamboo to build 1 million dwellings from?

ZeroPower's picture

Bamboo ETF!!

Oh and just read the article you were talking about, good read. This stands out:

Unlike China, which predominantly uses concrete and steel in new home construction, Japan has a wood-based housing construction culture. This trend was reinforced by stricter building codes following the Kobe earthquake in 1995, which necessitated the use of higher-quality lumber

Orly's picture

I did not know that.  Thanks for the information, fellas.



We should keep in mind, too, that it was the massive maves that did most of the damage.

ZeroPower's picture

Absolutely. You wouldn't see wood being used in heavy industrial uses like the skyscrapers in Tokyo, but i think the context of this wood demand is for all the (unfortunately) lower class that lost their homes, hence from lesser quality materials; weaker wood. Im really not familiar on the natural resource situation in Japan (Agri fields? Some energy?) but im assuming their forests arent too abundant especially after the devastating tsunami.

walküre's picture

Condos, 3 and 4 stories high can be built from lumber.

Some are mixed usage with retail on the lower floor.

If I remember correctly the time to build with 2x4 or 2x6 and OSB and plywood is much quicker and cheaper than the steel and concrete process.

Not sure what the Japanese had in terms of construction before, but from the devastation you can see that they're familiar with wood construction.

They will need shelter and quick. Once this fucking reactor cools down, they can start to pick up and get at it.

Funding will be a major issue for all this. The banks have 70 year mortgages on the books already. Debt at 200% GDP doesn't help either.

Imo there's going to be a debt reset or debt jubilee before long. No other way out.

Ned Zeppelin's picture

4 stories (at least in US) is the limit on wood/"stick based" construction.  Whether that is better for earthquakes, do not know. 

EvlTheCat's picture

What resources are available for wood construction in high seismic areas and why build with wood in earthquake-prone areas?


Yen Cross's picture

That's a thought! Light pliable metal, and easily alloyed. I'm just too tired, to spell malleable. Could work.

TonyV's picture

I was thinking "lead". It protects you from radiation, you know.

Yen Cross's picture

Lead is too heavy. we need a copper/lead/aluminum mix- with a tiny bit of nickle.

Kayman's picture


Correct me if I am wrong, but Canada smelts a lot of aluminum (from cheap Hydro power) but I am unaware of any bauxite mining in the Great White North.

ZeroPower's picture

Yes, definitely lots of smelting going on. For bauxite, up until recently ive heard as well there werent any mines in Canada but i think they were either found and not being mined specifically for bauxite yet or simply were waiting on gov regs to allow actual mining.

A company to check out is Rio Tinto, they claim to have reserves at some of their mines - recent F/S might shed some light.

edit: did a search for bauxite on the TSX and Venture, quite a few show up. Again not sure if they have actual mines or merely smelters like you said, but something to look into.

TWORIVER's picture

Can they use irradiated wood? it seems thats whats coming next.

walküre's picture

The wood is not as bad as the Chinese drywall. Russia's lumber might be worse off yet.

TWORIVER's picture

I agree and a big FUK U SHIMA to my junker! Eat irradiated shit.

S.P.Q.R.'s picture

The Japanese favoured wood frame construction after the Kobe quake in '95 - elasticity of wood fiber being better choice then concrete, no reason to think it wouldn't be the same this time around. Bigger opportunity for timber industry will be the message this disaster sends China in choice of building materials. 

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

That's a thought.  Man though, all I can really think about right now is Japanese bonds, and just what a complete clusterfuck that's going to be, globally speaking.

alien-IQ's picture

the third largest economy in the world and a major trading partner with the US just took one of the most catastrophic hits any country could take short of being invaded and you somehow are delusional enough to think that we have had sufficient market correction already and it's blue skies and green fields ahead?

Wascally Wabbit's picture

if this were a free market, you would be totally right and we could trade on fundamentals. But w/ fed injections US equities could hit two-year highs tomorrow. 


NidStyles's picture

It's going to be a crazy week. I just increased my silver holding's, and my copper/lead holding's.

Michael's picture

I believe we are witnessing a financial and societal cascading failure pushed over the cliff by a biblical geological event. The speed of the collapse will only accelerate from here on out.

BetTheHouse's picture

What, Michael?  Surely you can find a way to blame the Jews for this. no? 

Kayman's picture


Certainly it was the fault of the Jews.  Isn't everything ?


Alienated Serf's picture

yup. Jews operating HAARP while making christian blood matzo.