What Happens If (When) The Dollar Rises?
There has been lots of speculation as to what may happen once Europe and the rest of the world wakes up and realizes they have been had by Bernanke. A useful regression analysis demonstrates the increasing risk to stocks at the moment when/if the DXY rises. While the straight red line is the simple regression, the orange line indicates beta changes only on postive or negative moves. The variation in slopes demonstrates that DXY moves up have a disproportionately higher impact to SPX moves down than vice versa. Another way of saying this is that to push the market higher purely as a function of its dollar correlation, the dollar needs to devalue more and more for a measurable impact, alternatively when the dollar rises, the drop in the market is more pronounced than on dollar down days.
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