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What Happens When China Stops Playing the Music?
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Playing, bitchez
Le awl fawl dwown?
<Yes I know that was insensitive but sometimes it feels so good to be a little bad> :>)
insensitive? I chuckled...
But I was labeled a bigot/racist here on another post.
& i was religio-fascist once here just for quoting the bible
Chinese citizens beginning to be educated in Political Correctness toward Americans.
China looks to be playing others for a fool granted they have their own problems.
It'll be karma that gets you CD.
I will always remember how a lady at a local oriental restaurant read back your order sounded.
Bweef Wied Wice.
Empris Chicken.
I agree. My next reincarnation will be as a bowl of pork fried lice. :>)
There's a restaurant in London named Mongorian Buffet. Not sure if it was named in fun or not.
Was that Mandarin or Cantonese?
@cognitive
LOL -- typical Fat Amelican
so the eye doctor told the chinese guy,' you have a catarac,' the chinese guy said,' no no, i drive a rinken.'
So the American ambassador asked the Asian potentate, "When do have elections?"
"Right after bleckfast," was the reply.
LOL
Took me a second reading but eventually I got it. Or more to the point, I don't "get it" until after breakfast.
Here's more Double Whammy News: Philly Fed goes negative, unemployment claims back at 1/2 million, stocks plunge but commodities are up across the board. Nat gas up 2.3% despite months of rising inventory. Wheat up 5%. Lumber up 1.2% despite abject news for housing. Oil hangs at boom-time prices despite evidence of another leg down in a depression.
Only gold can protect your money. In this environment bonds can blow up on a moment's notice as money printing will accelerate to unheard of levels, and corporate bankruptcies pick up with vanishing government support. Gold.
If there was inflation, stocks would be at 36,000 right now. Inflation ain't gonna happen till the bond market breaks down. The market is bigger than the FED.
"Inflation ain't gonna happen till the bond market breaks down."
I beg to differ. Inflation could go through the roof if the Fed loses control of the price of Gold:
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
Why? The dollar wants to move inversely to the price of Gold.
Gold Up/Dollar Down. Just keep saying that to yourself about 10 times a day.
Say it to yourself before you go to bed at night and the first thing when you get up in the morning. Gold is a glaring Red Exit Sign for all dollar holders.
In order to have inflation, you need an increasing money supply. Not only is that not happening, it's not even close to happening. The money supply has been collapsing. Sure, we'll get inflation, but only after we've finished deleveraging. There's not a chance of it happen before then.
It seems like the Inflationistas come out of the wood work every Summer when the Fed does its big auctions, they make a lot of noise, and then disappear when inflation never happens. Only to resurface the next Summer, still without a clue as to why things didn't turn out as they expected.
One of these years, they'll be right. But only after Credit has collapsed. And even then they won't understand what is going on, or why.
Or a complete loss of confindence in a currency. Usually goes hand in hand with a rapid expanding money supply and increasing velocity. But the ignition source could be harder to see coming.
You're in intense denial. It's understandable when your whole world construct melts down and blows away. The new reality is that deflation/inflation is no longer binary. There can be inflation along side deflation. It's the cumulative effect that impacts the national economy: if your mortgage is under water and your electric and food bills keep rising, you're spending in every other category will keep shrinking until you're BK. In an aggregate level, consumers will remain constrained and small business margins will be increasingly pressured.
Solution? The Fed will go on another printing binge. Gold.
There is no inflation. M3 is contracting at an 8percent annualized pace. There are price increases in some sectors. Deflation is the NET contraction in money and credit. You can't define inflation how you want it. Gold is an uncertainty play, I'll buy gold when it goes back to $35 and physical USD is worth 20x more than it is today. We're in the greatest credit unwind event in history. Bubble blow up bitchez!
But to measure inflation, you should use M1+M2+Bonds. The bonds are low now just because the foreign nations (which produces capital). Once they dump bye bye dollar. And it is impossible to have deflation once the interest is at 0%
No inflation? everything costs more every month; every two months; this is what, an illusion ? Where is this no inflation, I can re-locate.
Pure nonsense. The only way to have both is to warp the definition of inflation/deflation such that it's not useful or predictive. Which is a very bad way to go making investment bets.
Dear Eternal Student
Our treasury debt must be counted as part of the money supply. Why? Because when a debt no longer pays real interest it’s really just currency. That’s one big reason the Chinese are going on a world-wide shopping spree - so they can get real stuff for our currency (AKA USA Treasury IOUs) because there is no point in holding IOUs that don't pay real interest.
Furthermore, it looks to me like the USA doesn’t even have any real currency anymore because currency must serve as a store of value. And if our USA FRNs don’t qualify as a store of value due to inflation then maybe they will not be used as a medium of exchange. In other words the Chinese will increasingly be disinclined to take our currency whether our not Mr. Bernanke calls it currency or Treasury IOUs.
And if you deflationists out there deny that we have inflation because M3 isn’t expanding you had better read my first paragraph again. It looks like the Chinese agree with me, not you.
Buy some gold and may the Cyclops eat you next to last
"when a debt no longer pays real interest it’s really just currency."
So by that logic, the reason that the Banks are madly foreclosing on unpaid mortgages is because they are just adding to their coffers. No wonder they have been in such a hurry to do this, and are in such great shape.
You might want to rethink that one.
I suggest that you rethink. It is common knowledge that the banks are not foreclosing so they can keep the debt on their books at face value. The debt in this case is worthless currency.
I was making a joke, to illustrate that debt doesn'tt necessarily become currency, contrary to your original point. Sometimes it simply disappears. Which is deflationary. And unfortunately, defaults on Sovereign debt is the norm, and not the exception. The last 70 years for the US has been the exception.
If you want to get a true measure of debt and credit as currency, then you're going to have to include the Derivatives market, which is well over $650 Trillion (and probably around $1-2 Quadrillion). And is unfortunately built upon declining assets. I.e. this House of Cards is also waiting to collapse (again). And that, alas, is deflationary as well. Sorry, Fed printing can only delay the inevitable, but not change the outcome.
After that though, I would agree that the only way out is inflation, and probably like such that we haven't seen before in our lifetimes.
You're in intense denial. It's understandable when your whole world construct melts down and blows away. The new reality is that deflation/inflation is no longer binary. There can be inflation along side deflation. It's the cumulative effect that impacts the national economy: if your mortgage is under water and your electric and food bills keep rising, you're spending in every other category will keep shrinking until you're BK. In an aggregate level, consumers will remain constrained and small business margins will be increasingly pressured.
Solution? The Fed will go on another printing binge. Gold.
Inflation- 'An increase in the supply of money' Hmm CHECK all time high increase.
Deflation- 'A loss of confidence in a currency' Hmmm CHECK confidence in the dollar at all time low.
INFLATION and DEFLATION at the same time, bitchez.
"'An increase in the supply of money' Hmm CHECK all time high increase."
Wrong: M3 is contracting:
http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply
"A loss of confidence in the currency" != Deflation
Deflation is the increasing confidence in the currency. Under deflation the dollar goes up in value NOT down. Prices drop because fewer dollars buy more things.
Just look at Philly Fed numbers today: prices received plunnges while prices paid is almost unchanged.
House prices? With another unemployment shockwave, and huge rising inventory levels almost up to 12 month-levels, prices are going DOWN.
Cost of lumber, energy, telecom, security and insurance for home? Going UP.
That's Double Whammy.
You're confusing price inflation with the monetary phenomena. The former is a result of the latter, and depends upon many things (depending on the widget). The latter is useful for seeing what's going on overall; the former is not.
Exactly - the Fed may be printing like mad, but the velocity of money [money moving through the system] is contracting at a rate we haven't seen since the great depression. Why can't people understand we will not have inflation until the velocity of money increases?
I agree, we'll have deflation until the velocity increases. But the price of Gold is a sign of the pressure building up behind the velocity.
In other words the Gold price could be viewed as a pressure dial in the system. Kind of like the famous PSI dial on top of the BP Oil well. Except in this case the Fed has capped the price for years and the pressure keeps rising. The fact there's no Oil in the water now doesn't mean there could be very quickly when the Plug blows out.
All I know is the Fed has lost control of the Gold price. That plug is on it's last legs and it could fail catastrophically at any moment. If that plug fails then Velocity will go through the roof.
Read the article.
The money supply (multiplier) can only increase when the money that has been printed is lent out and deposited into accounts of third parties. That is not happening. Credit is in fact shrinking. The money supply has been shrinking over the past several months which is a deflationary indicator.
The money the Fed did create ( and it was a bunch) out of thin air is in the banking system and being used by the banks for trading purposes.
Kind of like a private casino so to speak. But it is not being lent out. Most every small business owner will tell you that. And many large ones as well.
there is a lot of confusion on the definition of deflation... and even more confusion (esp. in MSM) about whether deflation is good or bad.
i'm of the opinion (opposite of shalom) that deflation is the bad medicine that America desperately needs(about 10 years overdue).
Fixed income in currencies from creditor / resource rich countries is a good way to hedge against the dollar AND secure a (reasonably) secure income stream.
Unfortunately, Gold doesn't cash flow...:-(
gold yes, physical. silver also for day to day buying.
China is fkn irrelevant!! They are just about $4.5 Trillion of the World economy in GDP terms, the US and Europe are $30 Trillion of World GDP. China is a little flea riding on the back of Europe and the US. The US can finance it's own deficits for quite some time, as in this next wave down, the peripheries blow up faster than the center. So the US will be the last country standing (no doubt it will still fall) but it will be the last to fall. China Shmina, get a grip. Their currency reserves and their bond holdings are peanuts compared to what institutional investors are holding.
Of course China's growth comes from production, and US "growth" comes from consumption based on borrowed money.
Who consumes what China produces?
We do, until they 86 us. Then, finally, Chinese people will get to enjoy the products they've toiled away making.
Enjoy? Everything I have that's manufactured in China is sh!t. I'm generalizing, but Chinese products are cheap, usually don't work effectively, and break in about a minute. Have fun with that...
when the chinese start consuming domestically, they will develop better marketing and product reviews (ie. CNET, consumer reports, car and driver, etc... albeit in a Cantonese Flavor)...once they increase consumption and discretionary spending (no longer just buying rice bowls and seaweed), they will take the time to read about the things they are buying. the pride in quality will go up as they begin to use the products they are building... and don't forget the likelihood that China will begin to convert to service based economy as they are able to begin outsourcing their own production to even cheaper markets (pakistan, vietnam, Thailand, etc...)
I don't see what your point is. Whether you believe goods from China are of low quality or not, the US has been buying them for decades. And for many Chinese, they don't have a fraction of the convenient products that Americans take for granted. What you think is cheap and low quality may be a modern marvel to the average Chinese consumer. It's all the more reason why a domestic Chinese consumer market is a growing inevitability, and that they will not be so heavily reliant upon the US consumer forever.
Hell VK, EVERYTHING is irrelevant! Print n pump, bitchez!
You seem to believe fundamentals apply. There's only one I see - the Chinese are the world's largest sovereign creditor. Buy Yuan, Bitches.
So CALPERS is going to save the US bond market ?
The US GDP numbers are a joke. That 14 trillion in GDP number includes interest on credit card debt, lawsuits, every non productive transfer payment you can think of, bogus insurance premiums and mortgages.
Lawsuits, how productive....
If US GDP numbers are fudged (Which I believe they are), the Chinese figures are super fudged as well. Since money is debt and we know that there is $188 Trillion in global debt and the US has $53.8 Trillion of that debt. Then it is still the US and Europe which powered Chinese growth and as Japan, the US, Europe all collapse, China will collapse at an even faster pace.
If you look at it from a one-dimensional perspective (who's has a bigger dick... er... GDP), then you sound right. But it's never that simple. China has imported a lot of jobs, invested in the production facilities, and more recently has been buying energy and materials. US is mostly investing in casino-type facilities in a strange plutocratic/socialist way. We have witnessed that all money has run off from stocks, which is a barren wasteland of HFT algos duking it out between themselves. A lot of UST are being bought by the Treserve - that is obviusly living on tomorrow's wishes. And remember, money isn't country-aware, it doesn't know patriotism. Once it sees that the US card has been played it will move on to greener pastures, leaving embezzeled citizens to pick up the pieces.
That money will not wait for the US to collapse, becuse then it will be too late. It will move away before that. You just have to see all the bad indicators piling for a domino effect: rising unemployment, rising debt, rising deficit, volatile market melting up on inexistent volumes. And all this has been happening on a sustainable basis for the last couple of years.
So yeah, China could seem irrelevant at this point, but the US has such a shitload of problems that China is just one on the list of issues.
I don't know about China but I would collapse. , period.
"I saw men didn’t want to be saved from themselves, for that would mean they’d have to give up greed, and they’ll never pay that price for liberty. So I said to the world, God bless all here, and may the best man win and die of gluttony!"- The Iceman Cometh
The ghost is back - STAGFLATION Bitchez!
STAGFLATION, bitchez!
When China stops the nusic the bull will do this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWAIjYs9Lws
The article talks about China's neighbors buying dollars to stay competitive with China. What the article misses is the any understanding of the 30 years China has been developing the infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of primary and secondary suppliers required to build the products they sell. The vast majority of suppliers of components to build most of these products are located in China. Vietnam could not build an LCD HDTV unless it imports all the comeponents from China. The same goes for many companies in the US. Until some country steps up the plate and builds up this critical chain of component suppliers, they will never be able to compete with China. Also unmentioned is the advanced ship, air, truck and railway systems required to import and export material. The fact that the Chinese government negotiates deals for the raw materials used by it's factories is also not mentioned.
China is slowly building up the thousands of subcontractors required to build jet airliners. Once this is done you can forget about Airbus and Boeing selling small to mid size jet liners.
hahahaha...who the fuck would want to fly on a chinese airliner?
They can only sell them right now and operate them in countries with shitty safety standards. Their current premier offering is a clone of the MD80.
In 30 years, their best military jet is a ripoff of the Lavi, requiring Russian engines because China simply ISN'T high-tech enough to produce the powerplants.
For China to TRULY be competitive will require an undoing of 30 years' worth of what's brought them to where they are now, and that is ripping people off, stealing IP, copying, counterfeiting, and using their people as a slave labor force while running real estate and manufacturing ponzis.
Or drive a Chinese car or worse yet, ride a Chinese motorcycle? No thanks.
Yes I know Honda etc. are mfg. in China but the technology is from Japan (copied from the Germans).
When I was a child (I’m 63 now) there were toys from Japan that were made from beer cans that American GIs had thrown away. That was about all they had to sell and people laughed at Japanese manufacturing. In my lifetime the Chinese have gone from eating each other (during Mao’s Great Leap Forward) to the magnificent Shanghia skyline and bullet trains. I wouldn’t want to fly in a Chinese jet liner today either but thirty years from now I think we’ll be eating each other and the Chinese will be mocking us as they fly over Cannibalmerica at 30,000 feet in their excellent quality jet liners.
Totally agree. Those who do not believe the capabilities of Chinese just go ahead and try rides in any subway in Shanghai or Beijing, or try the high speed railway system in China. You will feel shamed to live in the so-called super-power country but riding subways here like Chicago's. The high speed trains in China offers better services than the airplanes here. Many people here simply don't have idea what is going on there. People there learn hard and work hard. That is just the culture. Simply visit your local schools here in the US, who are the best students (academically), they are most likely Asians.
For America to TRULY be competitive will require an undoing of 50 years worth of what's brought them to where they are now; snubbing their own citizens as a labor force while simultaneously ignoring rampant illegal immigration, running real estate and entitlement ponzis and flagrantly ignoring the law.
But that will require a signifcant portion of the population to WAKE THE FUCK UP.
Yeah, I'm sure that everyone can't wait to fly on Chinese-built jetliners.
In the meantime, we'll just have to content ourselves with their drywall, children's toys, costume jewelry and baby formula.
I'm old enough to remember when Japan-built items were an object
of ridicule.
Could happen again...
Peter Schiff has been saying this for a while now, decoupling bitchez
I don't know why the Chinese have this reputation for being so smart when they cornered themselves like this. Maybe they will pull a rabit out of a hat and get out unscathed but I highly doubt it. They are going to lose allot of money.
Yea Spitzer, WTF makes the Chinese so smart? They just starve their own people for as long as it takes, yet we put them at our level. Sad when youre so under the heel of communist scumbags.
"I don't know why the Chinese have this reputation for being so smart when they cornered themselves like this."
I very much agree. Personally, I think their biggest screwup was not establishing the trade routes after apparently exploring at least key parts of the world. The U.S. would've been Chinese right now, instead of European. That's got to be the dumbest thing in the history of humanity.
Arguably even more stupid than the Ottoman Empire joining Germany in WWI. Had they not done so, they would've lasted 20 years longer. Just long enough to keep control of all the Middle East Oilfields, instead of fragmenting into what we currently have. Today would be vastly different if all of that was under one different Empire.
You haven't been to the Left Coast lately. Give it 30 more years and Cali will be heavily Chinese. Cali is the rally point for their immigration (legal/illegal) seconded only by the Mexican immigrants. The US population is in decline but the PTB know we need velocity of population to propel the economy, so don't expect them to stop it. And more than likely it will accelerate.
The business practice of Guanxi (formerly known as the kickback) is starting to become comon practice as more and more businesses become Asian owned. Americans may be waking up to a new reality that they are not familiar with and probably not invited to participate in anyway.
Is that mostly in the northern half of the state? I know some folks in LA and I don't hear much about the Chinese.
Here is a latest numbers. These will be updated after 2010 census and I expect a sizeable increase:
Summary since 2000:
http://www.bayareacensus.ca.gov/california.htm
White @ (-500K)
Hispanic @ (+2M)
Asian @ (+1M)
FYI...I'm in Silicon Valley. The Tech Center of the US is mostly dominated by Chinese and Indians now. That creates a whole different set of issues for a country with limited growth potential. Americans need to turn off the TV and wake up, realize they have been sold out by the corps and the Gov they control.
I'm on the left coast, and the Chinese are a minority. It's about 42% white, 37% Hispanic, and 12% Asian. Note that the term "Asian" covers much more than just China. Sorry, but the Chinese are not increasing faster here than the Hispanic population. These numbers come from the 2009 Census, so you can look it up yourself.
The point is where the trend is taking you.
White population is shrink 2~3% every 10 years while Asian population is growing at 20%. And that will continue to
accelerate as a larger US based population will allow for higher amounts of migration from the East under our current
immigration policies.
I noted that it is not larger than Mexican population growth but percentagewise it is equivalent.
The Asian population is also demographically quite different. While Mexican immigration tends to be a peasant migration
with them looking for subsistence work, Asian migration is much more educated and entrepreneurial. One can argue that this is good for the US until one begins to realize the cultural differences and propensity of Asians to keep wealth amongst
their own community and exclude outsiders. They are more likely to compete directly for high value innovation and
opportunities and do it under their own rules.
I applaud them for their drive and success. Meanwhile, I weep for America that has given up it's Puritanical work ethic
for its 'American Idol" society.
Again, you're assuming that "Asian == Chinese". That just isn't so.
You're also assuming a linear extrapolation, and that the next 30 years are going to be like the last 30. Both of these are highly questionable assumptions. I'd even argue that we're in the end game for globalization. But regardless, suggesting that the Chinese are going to become the dominate minority (when all are minorities at this point), is not based upon any reasonable data that have been presented. A bigger minority, perhaps. But there's a long way to go before one can accurately make a statement beyond that.
I don't assume that "Asian == Chinese". The fact is that all Asians share a common history and heritage that Westerners are mostly unaware of. (Except for the part of us invading and trying to run their countries in the past.)
Asians of all stripes are more comfortable identifying with/working with different Asians, whether it be Chinese, Viet, Thai, Indonesian, etc. And they mostly view the US as standing in their way in some form or fashion.
And the desire of all these disparate groups to succeed and have what you and I have, puts them in direct competition with us. The problem is that most Americans don't see what is headed their way and are in no way ready for it. Political correctness has masked Americans ability to see that it is a pretty nasty world out there, everyone wants what you have, and they'll do about anything they can to get it. (Glass of Melamine anyone?)
Your original point was about the Chinese. It was only later that you started referring to Asians.Sorry, I still have to strongly disagree with the original expectation that "Give it 30 more years and Cali will be heavily Chinese". Not a chance in the world. The Asian population might well grow, but that's a far cry from being heavily Chinese.
My experience is that all of the Asian cultures tend to dislike each other more so than white Americans, unless pressed into a cog. And the non-Chinese cultures really dislike the Chinese.
But they dislike you more, Mr. Round Eye.
And the fact of the matter is that there are 1.3B in China alone that want your lifestyle. Most will stay there. But many will come to the conclusion that the easiest first step for them is a $600 plane ticket to a country that will more than likely never ask them to go back.
That's because you're engaging in a collectivist fallacy you've labeled "the Chinese."
Here's the deal, some individuals in China hold power over the rest. First and foremost, these individuals' interests are in retaining/extending their power. That the actions they take to do so end up harming those under them are of no consequence, as that is a secondary concern requiring only a PR facade to cover some perceived inadequacy OF THE SYSTEM. Worse case, they blame it on a bad apple, execute them, and continue on as if nothing else was wrong.
Now, take the word China out of the above paragraph, and replace it with any other institutional power-structure, and suddenly the political madness seen in the world appears quite rational.
See, it's all about the labels and how they corrupt ideas (and why I shun them).
I post this for two reasons:
1) further proof that the in-breeding in the Royal Family has produced disastrous results
2) Lots of pictures of hot chicks
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1304327/Prince-Charles-urges-Bri...
With the exception of a few weeks in 2008.
Every purchase of Treasury bonds is now in a winning position.
You think the Chinese are going to stop buying when this trade has been the biggest winner in a generation??
Chinese are DUMPING US treasuries hand over fist! Whatchoo smokin, RoboTrader??
Great point but how do you unwind and take profits? Their holdings are as good as a pink sheet with low volume.
As SheepDog-One said, but also, your argument essentially boils down to "because treasuries have gone up continuously as of recent, you should buy".
Uh-huh. No bubble mentality here.
For the second dog back on the snow sled, the view never changes. And it seems what Robo is promoting is for the Chinese to remain second dog.
"Nope, nothings wrong from where I stand. In fact, it appears the dog in front of me finally cleaned up his act a bit. Blue skies as far as I can see"
IMHO I've been wondering if this govvie pump hasn't been a stealthy and brilliantly engineered opportunity to enable the Chinese to off load some of their (formerly out of the money) supply in an effort to keep them happy. Just thinking outside of the box here.
With the exception of a few weeks in 1998.
Every purchase of Pets.com is now in a winning position.
I don't know whether to compare this bond bubble to a classic asset bubble or a bernie madoff ponzi scheme. I think it is a little bit of both.
Thanks Robo.
Sheeplemon believes the media lie a bit too much.
answer; yes. and you should too; I retired from metals trading long ago and never regretted taking profit too early; and its flat impossible to say what the timing on these bonds is; it's too near the end of the cycle; dump them and get on the next undervalued thing; like Silver Bullion for instance.
'INFLATION'- 'An increase in the supply of currency'. OK all time high CHECK there no question.
'DEFLATION'- 'A loss of confidence in an underlying currency'. CHECK, USDollar is considered toilet paper around the world.
'STAGFLATION', bitchez!
Wrong
See comment 530501 above.
deflation is a lack of confidence in an underlying currency?
here I thought it was dramatic price drops due to high unemployment and low demand, and oversupply... kinda like the falling home prices in today's economy... guess i been deceived :/
Is CYB worth buying? Doesn't seem like China is in any rush to appreciate.
If the US thinks China is guilty of currency manipulation by maintaing an artificially low exchange rate, the proper course of action is restore what the US believes to be a proper exchange rate by imposing import tarriffs. Ditto if the US believes that Chinese environmental, workplace safety & health proctices, and other federally-mandated standards are not being upheld.
But the US is not doing that. Makes you wonder...
Since you've offshored much of the supply chain to China, any kinda of blanket tariff is almost cretainly going to trigger instant inflation and shortages.
Kill Walmart and people are going to riot.
So China basically saw a way to hedge in some other non-USD assets and secure it's competetiveness in terms of cheap labor while on the way to de-dollar and appreciate the Renminbi.
Interesting choice. If this goes smooth then some people will probably be able to buy some of those 65 million empty apartments/houses.
why in hell would the chinese want the yuan to appreciate?
It's a nation loaded with bad debts and excess leverage
And what does that have to do with appreciating the yuan? No, seriously.
The music will play forever, just ask Leo. Record "earnings" in those solar-powered Chinese dynamos will keep us humming happy tunes.
Seriously, I think the Chinese leadership has been preparing for the end game since the Olympics. Bernanke is doing likewise. He may be an asshole of sorts, but his goal is to make the USD the last domino.
ok, so what is the trade? what is best way to buy china currency if it is going up?
chinese man goes to bank to exchange yuan. Leaves. Returns following week to exchange more, and gets fewer USD. Asks teller why. She replies "fluctuations." Man gets angy and stomps out of bank. As he is leaving, shouts back "well, fluc u Amelicans too!"
lmao aftershave... I'd draw you a rofl-copter if i could.
What a desperate attempt to sucker more investment into China's bubblemania. The article makes some damaging assumptions, namely;
Scam Alert 1-this has not been bought by Japan or SNB. What does that tell you?
Scam Alert 2-High yields reak of risk and certainly not growth in this day and age.
agreed; chasing rates is always dubious; in the present time it invites disaster. The Yuan is at least as likely to depreciate as apreciate; I would say 60-40 for depreciate; china has serious fiscal problems developing; and god made silver and its available; its in a nice verified bull market and some day it'll come with a cherry on top. what's not to like?
who says China is reducing Ts? All I see is them moving down in duration.
But why would they do that if they weren't expecting the music to stop?
On one side, China et al., are all running into the short-end of the curve looking for "safe havens." Meanwhile, the Fed is "buying" the long-end.
Me? I'm waiting on the next article from Prof. Fekete.
Are there like, 1 or 2 day offerings? Even that seems risky....
DEFLATION'- 'A loss of confidence in an underlying currency
Wrong. That is the definition of hyperinflation which we are fast approaching
The next leg down ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
but, but, but... krugman says we've got china over a barrel! lol
can someone PLEASE wake me when nobody listens to what this guy says?
here in thailand the banks are now offering 4% interest on 13 month deposits, the SET is up, the baht is up, and we have a trade deficit.
When do the markets ever behave logically in response to the fundamentals, if ever?
I am tempted to take the 4% and be done with it.
fucktagflation, bitchez!
We do have China over a barrel, and maybe we have them well enough that they'll continue throwing good money after bad into US Treasuries, right up to the bitter end.
But they can't stop the end from coming, as increasing their purchases would just elevate the dollar further, depress US production further, and drive up further the same US government deficit they're trying to cover.
So they might well decide to cut out early. Especially since they have their own mounting financial problems in their banking sector.
http://keynesianfailure.wordpress.com/
Going long on Nature and shorting Humanity is the only good investment over the next couple decades.
Ain't that the truth.
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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