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What Keeps Wall Street Up At Night (Quarterly Edition)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two quarters ago it was the muni implosion, last quarter it was sovereigns blowing up (again). Now, it's oil, and the stench of out of control inflation sending precious metals to daily all time record highs, that is keeping Wall Street up at night (yet doing nothing than seemingly providing one after another "buy the dip" opportunity). Every quarter the prevailing investing and spec opinion focuses on one key bogeyman in the wall of worry and refuses to let go, even as, or particularly because of, the Fed, in conjunction with the HFT-controlled market, sells vol to the point where everyone pretends risk is under control. Of course, it isn't, and neither the muni crisis has gone away, nor the threat of sovereign insolvency, nor pervasive inflationary threats (just buy gas in Europe). However, the fact that the Fed systematically takes on one conventional wisdom risk factor after another, and sells into every vol rally, almost certainly via curve exposure, but arguably via equity volatility indices as well (see thought by Artemis Capital on the subject), masks the symptom of an underlying systemic collapse until the market focuses on the next hotspot, which the Fed may or may not be able to resolve. And since we have finally moved on the biggest Fed artifact of all: inflation (and rampant one at that), the Fed's ability to extend and pretend the inevitable correction that needs to happen to push oil down to sub-$100 may be now coming to an end.

Here is how Bank of America's clients determine what the key concerns were for the past two quarters:

Below is Jeffrey Rosenberg's commentary on how and why Wall Street has now made it into a habit of selling into any fear drop.

Our quarterly survey of largest risk to the outlook has been a good source of contrarian trading strategies. From last autumns’ deflation concern (contrarian viewpoint: interest rates should rise), to December’s US municipal risks (contrarian viewpoint: credit risk overstated) to today’s concern over rising oil prices (contrarian viewpoint: oil market uncertainty overstated), each of these concerns have failed to deliver a significant asset price correction. The last one – oil market concerns – still lies ahead of us in terms of the lagged impact of rising gasoline prices on consumers, but the market’s fears (as judged by implied volatility in options) indicates improvement in confidence that a “super spike” can be avoided eroding one of our original motivations for a tactical underweight recommendation.

In other words, BTFD until BTFD as a strategy fails spectacularly and the trade of aligning with the Fed always and forever no longer works.

 

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Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:23 | 1225970 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

what is keeping wall street up at night is all the blow and hookers from bonuses and qeii

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:01 | 1226016 augie
augie's picture

pitty them, its all they have.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:44 | 1226090 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

GLOBEX just opened and silver drops from 48 to 42 USD/ozt.

Time to get rid of worthless fiat crappola.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1226108 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Wonder how long 42 will last. Minutes?

Will they cancel trades below 45?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:48 | 1226125 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

JPM smells like a rotting corpse.

And in other news -while we are on the zombie subject- Mayor Bloomberg calls for illegal mexicans to jumpstart Motor City:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/01/bloomberg-make-new-immigrants...

 

He should know that Detroit is not the only zombie town in the US.

How long before he calls upon illegal mexicans to "jumpstart Wall Street"?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1226239 stuman
stuman's picture

Then we'd have to build a wall around Detroit and patrol it with helicopters and eventually send in Snake Plissken to "chew bubblegum & kick ass!" Errr...I mean Roddy Piper ;)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:13 | 1226955 JR
JR's picture

“And if I were the federal government, assuming you could wave a magic wand and pull everybody together, you pass a law letting immigrants come in as long as they agreed to go to Detroit and live there for five or 10 years. Start businesses, take jobs, whatever.” – New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg

 Whatever? Instant welfare.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:54 | 1226130 au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

Found some support.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:12 | 1226173 LMAO
LMAO's picture

This shit moves so fast, I'm starting to get a feeling that the intermediate bottom is in at 42,65  BTFD

 

LMAO

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:11 | 1226148 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

CFTC approved market manipulation at its finest.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:22 | 1226202 Jay_Son
Jay_Son's picture

No, the COMEX margin increase was an attempt to reverse the manipulation that caused silver to go parabolic.  Even if silver was undervalued, 200% in 9 months, and 70% over the last 3 months doesn't raise red flags?  Come on.  Unless the dollar turns to confetti in the next few months, this bubble is over.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:38 | 1226305 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

I have news for you. The dollar turned to confetti 40 years ago.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:13 | 1226178 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Utter BS manipulation.  BTFD.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:16 | 1226040 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

People probably think you're joking.  Being truth I find it quite funny.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:56 | 1226139 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Whats going on with silver boys? That is one hell of a drop at the open.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1226210 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Go ahead and hold your breath.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1226041 Popo
Popo's picture

One should mention all the thousands of Wall Street funds that are long oil and metals. They are hardly losing sleep.

....Although, they are definitely the boys with the hot Latvian talent and the mirror on the table.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:20 | 1225971 Highrev
Highrev's picture

Maybe they'll start selling vol on inflation as well.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:15 | 1226043 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Nice call...one that I'd buy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:37 | 1225983 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Here is what keeps the Fed up at night... fear of an all out media campaign blitz encouraged by Ron Paul to AUDIT THE FED.

http://www.chooseliberty.org/atf_bb.aspx?pid=abnd4b

 

They're soliciting contributions to help pay for it right now, I'm sending 3 ounces worth of silver their way.  I hope others care enough to help spread an education about the Fed's crimes to the proles...  I personally write "END THE FED" on every reserve note I spend.

Interestingly, I just wrote it on a dollar bill stamped with "Ron Paul For President" ... probably from the last campaign.  Awesome to see others contributing to the defacing of the criminal bank's debt notes....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:42 | 1225991 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Ron Paul is a wet lettuce. If he was going to do something, he would have done it by now, after all he is "chairman of the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy".

Ron Paul offers the same 'hope and change' that obumma did...

... hope is all they offer, because there is zero chance of change for good. All bought and paid for scum.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:48 | 1226006 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

I don't think the Fed will ever be audited.  But I think its "hope" that the proles can latch onto and then start asking questions "What is the Fed?"  "What do they do?"  "Can we do without them?"  and the list goes on.  I have zero faith that the Fed will ever be audited, but I do have faith that this "campaign" to audit the Fed will help to awaken a few sleepers inside the Matrix...  Three ounces for the chance to awaken three sleepers is worth it for me.  In reality, probably far more will be impacted by my small donation.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:49 | 1226009 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

he may be the chairman but he doesn't have unlimited power.

He's already submitted bills to audit the fed, which was subsequently watered down by other congressman.

He has proposed numerous bills that have not even made it to the floor to be voted on.

Clearly you don't understand how the republic works.

Although Obama is terrible as a leader, except for veto'ing bills and executive orders, he also doesn't have as much power as you'd like to think. It's the 535 senators and congressmen who propose, debate and vote on the bills.

Ron Paul is one man against 534 other representatives.

Who passed Obamacare? Obama? actually no, it was voted on by a majority of congressmen. Although Obama didn't veto it, he couldn't pass it by himself.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:22 | 1226055 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

It's right, but as chairman, Paul can schedule hearings. Bring light to issue. Why no hearings?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:44 | 1226103 Manthong
Manthong's picture

They will get to the bottom of the Fed alright, but it won't be an audit.

It will be an autopsy.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:20 | 1226539 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

+1

By the same will we will not have our silver taken but from our cold dead hands,

the plutocrats will not have their power taken.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:43 | 1226639 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Funky, close but more like Paul is 'maintained' like a pressure escape valve or a toothless lion in the circus.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:51 | 1226008 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

RP said he wouldn't end the Fed on Fox. He's either scared or pandering.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:06 | 1226024 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Why haven't you ended the Fed?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:57 | 1226437 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Cause I'm just the quiet guy you pass on the street, opening doors for women, talking to the men who want to talk about whatever. Quiet survivalist that will step up when necessary. Cutting grass for old folks for free. You'd never notice me. Till you do.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:09 | 1226036 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

I think Ron Paul is a bright enough guy that he knows what it means to "end the fed"... it means political suicide and also somehow commit suicide with not one, but two bullets through the back of his skull.  The "end the fed" campaign will not originate from inside the legislative branch.

No, I think Ron Paul knows that the only way to end the fed is to let the collapse happen.  He's pretty adament about having the laws changed to ensure that we can escape from the Fed when it does happen.  ie: His tax policy... or should I say ZERO-tax on silver and gold.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:57 | 1226013 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Strange, I have a $20 right here in my wad stamped BACKED BY NOTHING in red right under In God We Trust and a $100 stamped END THE FED! in greenback green. Must be a trend. Thanks for the link, I just got an email from Campaign 4 Liberty to contrib $17.76 but they forgot to put a link in it. All righty then....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:04 | 1226021 augie
augie's picture

+1 for C4L

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:09 | 1226034 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i stop at the liquor store today...give the guy a twenty..he test it with his magic pen...it passed..the guy gave me back a 5...than i told him the 5 he was giving me was counterfiet money....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:45 | 1226637 stuman
stuman's picture

Nice +1

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1226053 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Audit what? Piles of fucking paper?

The U.S. economy is based on fucking paper backed with bullets and bombs.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:27 | 1226058 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:27 | 1226061 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

I don't understand why post is here. I'll delete again because makes no sense.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:55 | 1228333 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

hey captain, i'll join you on that good idea.

we can get the word out to the sheeple and piss off the fed at the same time when the "defaced" inflated notes come back at half buying power.

like monty python said:

Arthur: "good idea o lord"

God: "of course it's a good idea"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ42IMu7HIQ

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:37 | 1225986 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Hard not to notice the constant gold and silver bash articles every day. Whole presentations Bout the commodity angle but miss the fiat failing reality.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:39 | 1225987 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

I'll be betting on a trade war then that collapses global demand/gdp and ushers in the great wave of deflation we are inevitably going to get.  Looking at that poll i cant be wrong.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:49 | 1226001 css1971
css1971's picture

Does this help?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Value_of_US_dollar.gif

Just look how big those deflations are... Um... Wait, the chart says something else.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:53 | 1226011 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

It is possible for the value of the dollar AND asset prices to fall. And that is just what is going to happen. So far youve only be lucky enough to deal with the deflationary dollar. The end of this system will deal with both. Soon you will marvel at how you can buy brand new Ford Shitbangs for 5 grand. It will be a shame your job only pays 5 grand a year though and the Dows at 3k.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:13 | 1226037 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You accidently put a k behind the 3.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:56 | 1228338 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

LOL +1 !

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:48 | 1225992 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

There will be no audit and no default, as such; also no PM confiscation. Never, ever.

I am all-in short and simply fixing to grit my teeth to the close tomorrow because I am again pessimistic of yet another gap open and low-volume run. Why?  Why not. And had Khadaffy been whacked, we would gap +200 on the DOW. Why not.

Short, the last two years, has been nothing but folly. Like hoping a dictator whom we have no reason to be gunning for, doesn't get killed. I am near capitulation on short positions for the duration.

TFLMS.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:11 | 1226035 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Silver seems to be the only possible short term short position right now. I agree you cant possibly short anything else from here except possibly oil.

It is a shitty market when everything is a speculation, even guaranteed accounts or cash under the mattress.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:45 | 1225997 css1971
css1971's picture

Every quarter the prevailing investing and spec opinion focuses on one key bogeyman

It's all the same bogeyman.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:46 | 1226000 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

coke

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:47 | 1226002 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Buy gas in Europe? I got a letter through the door 2 days ago and couldnt beleive what i was seeing; a 40% increase in one price jump. I am not kidding, 40% !! , and the consumer body let them get away with it...i feel sorry for the elderly, because they got pay-as-you-go gas meters, and now they cant change supplier. Sick.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13147146

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:17 | 1226042 Jim B
Jim B's picture

WOW!  That is a killer increase..... :(

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:18 | 1226044 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Hey Gramps, meet Darwin.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:27 | 1226063 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

All of those promises we made to you "Gramps" when you were a young man.... well you're too old to do anything about it so fuck-off, and we'll tax your old ass on your way out.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:18 | 1226198 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"we'll tax your old ass"

Who's we, asshole?  We don't have anything to tax.  We spent it all on blow and hookers.  Now we've got our hand out. We're the country's largest voting block and we've got one thing on our mind.  You're gonna pay for our retirement.  And if you don't think so, you'll be picking cotton at a FEMA "plantation".

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:25 | 1226232 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Whoops.

 

I meant "they".

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:50 | 1226004 Racer
Racer's picture

I can't wait for a correction in the price of oil... I am fed up taking out mortgage after mortgage after mortgage for each tank of fuel to go to buy less and less food for the same money as I did the week earlier

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 17:58 | 1226014 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The only thing keeping wall street up at night is counting all the money they've stolen.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:28 | 1226064 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Yeah...and brew up some more schemes.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:08 | 1226027 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What keeps them up at night?

Keeping those futures juiced as fuck, that's what!

Opens up +50 with the spigot on bitch.

What a fucking pathetic joke this has become. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:14 | 1226039 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Someone below had a great idea.

Why not start writing or stamping on the cash we spend

END THE FED

BACKED BY NOTHING

Could we make it go viral?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:19 | 1226046 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Bubonic plague would be more effective.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:19 | 1226047 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The general public would have to have some basic idea what you are talking about.  Good luck with that.  Start with Mrs. Boilermaker first...please...I've tried and failed multiple times now.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:19 | 1226051 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:59 | 1228345 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

yep, i'm in.  "defacing is fun".

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:19 | 1226048 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

try buying gas in Canada eh... try $5.40/gallon, how about them apples eh?

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:22 | 1226052 youngman
youngman's picture

Gold is going straight up...could be interesting this week...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:25 | 1226059 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

you mean straight down....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:22 | 1226054 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Buy hard assets.

 

Paper is backed by promises. Promises are frequently broken

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:31 | 1226065 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

These are my observations:

Near Everyone:

-Convinced of Hyperinflation

-Convinced of gold and silver as safe havens

-FED infatuated and their ability to control markets

-Convince that QE rules

-Not a bear to be found

-Most are ignoring the cess pool of debt

-Erosion of credit availability; eg. banks not lending

-Ignoring House price plunges

-Ignoring RISK

-Comlacency is outrageous (see VIX at multi-year lows)

 

Ahh, which side would be the contrarian side?

hint: Only one side is correct...herd or contrarian?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:29 | 1226580 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

It's either don't fight the Fed,  or reality wins.    Gonna be interesting to see how long it takes tho.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 06:40 | 1228609 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Quite.   Trade wars and deflation look like the next big trends for the momos to get surprised about.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:32 | 1226069 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Silver going off the cliff here...WTF??????????

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1226072 augie
augie's picture

Wondering the same thing. down 13% wtf?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:30 | 1226246 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Looks like "They" want to shake out those that still believe in paper.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:32 | 1226071 Pinefox
Pinefox's picture

"AUDIT THE FED" is soon to plasted across the spare tire cover on the back of my Jeep-one small way of getting the message out. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1226075 Hearst
Hearst's picture

WTF is going on with Silver?? Down $4.20 in minutes!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1226083 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It's all flowing into REITs.  Everyone knows REIT equity is the only financial instrument that goes up 1% everyday.  Silver is too tangible to have value.

In other words, the FED is going to cornhole everyone again roundabout 9:30 EST tomorrow.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:37 | 1226086 markam
markam's picture

wonder how much this is costing the US taxpayer to push down silver like this.  Bet it is over $50 by tomorrow morning.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226094 augie
augie's picture

doubt it brother, there are a lot of phone calls being made right now. I'm long physical, so for me this is just another buying op, but i feel bad for those who are long paper :(

JPM and friends maybe trying manifest a bear run? Where is turd when you need him.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:46 | 1226115 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Best place to be is long physical.  I smell desperation.  Three margin hikes in 48 hours, now a 12% whack during overseas trading.  Who are these cocksuckers trying to convince?  Do they think everyone will suddenly sell their physical??  Doubt it.  

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:08 | 1228357 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

agreed.  i'm not selling.  paper burns.  the ponzi scheme continues.  corporatists (fascists) have the rule.  the Constitution is under attack.  police state is here.  inflation continues.  there are no jobs.

yes, it's just one big f-n joke for the sheeple.....

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:12 | 1226179 Papi_Al-Mahdi
Papi_Al-Mahdi's picture

Turd is here: tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:17 | 1226197 augie
augie's picture

Thanks!

@hearst

Agreed, I think we are gonna smell a lot worse than desperation soon lol Can't wait to see that 35.00 print so i can get more.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1226111 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

How much is it costing the US taxpayer??  Holy shit, that's precious.  Like they give a fuck.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226122 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

I have learned the hard way with silver...wait until the dust settles, i got killed averaging down once, (i was trying to trade it like currency). XAG bounces like physical, i.e. it dont. (i must say, that is a killer move)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:31 | 1226271 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Comical manipulation. They are attempting a monster shake-out.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:35 | 1226077 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Watching netdania I see Ag crashing . . . wow.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:35 | 1226079 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

down 5.13....WTF????????????????

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:07 | 1228359 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

and coming back up at only 3.33 down.....

touche!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1226081 tempo
tempo's picture

Insanity is doing something over and over that does not work.

Congress and the media argue that the economy is too weak and unemployment is too high so we must continue to run large deficits and print money to keep interest rates low.

These policies only benefit the super rich and screw the poor.

The deficits allow for continued domestic consumption that is produced by Corporations overseas at slave wages in Countries w/o environmental laws.

A good example is the near trillion dollars of student loans that keeps young people in school and allows them to fund life styles and products (ipads, iphones) with debt they can't repay. Student loans is a massive subprime lending problems that going to blow up.

If student loans were cut; there would be riots. True of most spending.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1226082 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

now down $5

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1226099 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

If you couldn't tell, since April 18th, that the FED is in full-on ramrod mode, then I don't know what to say.

They doubled down, then tripled down, then threw the rolex on the table, then bet their kids, then their grand kids, and are now simply going to shove literally everything into the pot.

You're about to see outlandish shit on a biblical scale.  You should never underestimate the lengths that the privileged will go to remain privileged.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:38 | 1226317 augie
augie's picture

Car RamRod?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:15 | 1228370 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

agreed boilermaker.  i think we got 'em scared good!  of course they hope we get scared with their tactics, but we recognize those tactics now.  but i think all if us here at zh know better.  we no longer fall for the scare tactics.

for those still in doubt:

"we have nothing to fear but the federal reserve note itself!"

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:40 | 1226088 small watcher
small watcher's picture

Is silver a major BTFD, or did the world just end?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:43 | 1226093 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The fairy godmother came back and waved her magic want and everything is ok now.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226109 small watcher
small watcher's picture

Whew! I'm glad you cleared things up. For a second there, I had a vision of the price dropping all the way to $0.00

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:52 | 1226128 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It will.  Didn't you read what I said?  The fairy godmother is back, and she means business.

http://content9.flixster.com/question/21/78/36/2178363_std.jpg

Paper price will have downward bias, but this will break the COMEX, and liberate the price of physical.  The only way these guys have been able to meet delivery demands thus far has been to let the price rise, allowing them to vacuum some supply off of the market.  A rapidly falling price will dry up all supply, and then a few longs will bring us to the endgame--IF they have the guts to stand.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:34 | 1226255 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

tmosley, I have a question for you.  Your comments above remind of FOFOA's thoughts on where gold will be going (physical price separating from paper).

Is that what you see for silver as well?  Too much paper (paper owners) per real physical ounce?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1226100 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

What the F*ck is going on?!?!!?!?!?

Blythe resurrected from the dead??

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:44 | 1226096 Stoner_Steve
Stoner_Steve's picture

Better buy the dip on silver now.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:42 | 1226098 tallen
tallen's picture

WTF was that. Silver's Down 12% in minutes, gold is up?. WTF IS THIS

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226106 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Do they not have to crash PMs to make the equity rise more believable to the masses?

Honestly, isn't that the last hurdle?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:46 | 1226116 tmosley
tmosley's picture

As predicted--infinite volatility, with a downward bias on the paper markets, and an upward bias in the physical markets.

I'd say the COMEX is about to break.  A lower spot price means they can't get ANY silver out of the strong hands holding it now.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:50 | 1226124 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

Get your FRNs ready for conversion -- I hope it drops $10. More for me!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:45 | 1226110 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

I would rather see it go up $5.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:46 | 1226118 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

I love it cause tomorrow I'll go out and buy even more.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226120 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

CNBC, if you can go there without barfing, is claiming much higher margins at CME for Au.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:47 | 1226121 Grifter
Grifter's picture

I've been F5'ing APMEX since the open & the quote is whipsawing all over the place, $1+ changes in the span of the 10 seconds it takes for the page to refresh.

Also noticing Kitco & APMEX aren't even close to being synchronized.  I'm used to a small discrepancy, but they haven't been within $.30 of each other since the open; at least not from what I can see.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:52 | 1226127 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Where's that little punk bitch that was calling me a contrarian indicator and saying how he bought silver just because I sold mine?

How are ya feeling tonight punk?

silver -12%

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:56 | 1226133 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Uh-huh.  How much gain did you realize?  How much did you lose in the transaction costs?  Are you planning on getting back in?  If so, do you think there will be any supply left by the time you do?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:01 | 1226151 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I made nachos and it cost me nachos in transaction costs.

Nacho bizness stranger.

I made enough, that's all you need to know.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:09 | 1226166 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Hope it stays down until the morning.  Want to buy more Ag. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:09 | 1226172 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm liking it mid-30's but that run up to 50 was just blinding.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:55 | 1226129 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

EUR/USD dropping now. WTI crude not moving yet.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:57 | 1226138 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

The coming flood of the Mississippi river delta and the assassination attempt on a foreign leader yesterday are two things that are keeping me awake at night.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:58 | 1226140 FromGaltsGulch
FromGaltsGulch's picture

It's silver and copper thats getting hit..copper is comfortably below 4.20..didn't faber say that when copper goes , so does the S&P?..they've been moving together on the upside

if the market tops it'll trap alot of traders who bought the breakout

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 18:58 | 1226149 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The Asians are going to jump all over this dip.  Watch.  It really smells of desperation, doesn't it?  CRIMEX  must be really fucked.  I guess no one wanted the $100 dollar expiry premium.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:05 | 1226158 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Decimation, courtesy of TPTB.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:07 | 1226162 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Natty is legit.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:12 | 1226174 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

pretty ugly. Something stinks.

TYLER!! what is going on?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:06 | 1226164 r101958
r101958's picture

I smell desperation. Trying to take out silver. Gold was up quite a bit at open but since then it has lost some of the gain.The big boys trying to take gains in the paper market. You certainly wouldn't sell that much physical at a loss. So, another attempt at manipulation.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:17 | 1226188 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

You are right. It's a desperate move, but I don't think it's going to do what "they" think it's going to do. They are wanting everyone to freak out and dump the physical..because  THEY NEED PHYSICAL AND DON'T HAVE IT!! BTFD!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:06 | 1226165 gimli
gimli's picture

Blythe is really on the warpath tonight ---- will this last til tuesday?

 

http://www.kitco.com/market/

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:13 | 1226177 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Silver Bull is now officially over Sheeple.  LMFAO!!!!  Should have sold on Friday.  LMFAO!!!!!!!!!

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:15 | 1226191 r101958
r101958's picture

You living with blinders on? So, what has fundamentally changed since Friday.....nada.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:25 | 1228387 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

as you wish oh wise nadler one....

get real!  that paper price means dick.

jobs suddenly come back to usa?  no!

politicians have a sudden change of heart?  no!

japan radiation problem ended?  no!

did the world just end?  no!

did all the wars stop?  no!

is the euro debt crisis over?  no!

is the usa debt crisis over?  no!

i could go on, but you sir must be a narrow-minded paper loving fool.

i'll enjoy the day we pass your "Should have sold on Friday" price because it must occur.  what will you do then nadler?  call another top?  puh-leeeeze!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:12 | 1226180 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

This is being done as there is no more actual metal to be had...future delivery depends on this happening. BTFD!!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:31 | 1228394 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

agreed.  i see this locally by me.

there is no silver unless you want scratch and dent or agree to pay +20% over spot for the little "nice" silver that's available.

remember people, we are doing this to keep it from the banksters whom we loathe.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:15 | 1226182 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Hu Jintao is smiling. He's about to save a fortune because he's still buying.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:22 | 1226219 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Who gives a rat's ass what Hung Farlow is doing.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:18 | 1226186 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

The CME raised the futures 2 times last week folks, don't be a sheep, press buy.. not sell.

 Keep a steady hand and BTFD.. This is war now, It will pay back nicely soon enough.

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:16 | 1226187 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Hurry Sheeple.  Apmex just bought a shitload of 90% junk silver at $48/ounce last week.  Should be receiving the crap on Monday.  LMFAO!!!!  Hope the Apmex Assholes hedged or they are taking it up the ass on that trade.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1226201 r101958
r101958's picture

Nice try bigs. I have talked to quite a few folks and more are not even aware of silver/gold prices than are familiar. That is not a bubble. This is something quite different. Manipulation or some type of quid pro quo with another government. Perhaps to make up for holding down the price of something else....oh, maybe oil. Sorry, I don't believe in coincidence and Ben did not just push the 'destroy dollar' button.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1226209 tmosley
tmosley's picture

APMEX is fully hedged.  If they weren't, they would have gone out of business in 2008.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:24 | 1226227 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

I expect Apmex or another large dealer to go bankrupt when the bust hits.  Their hedges cost them a lot of money and it was just too tempting to go naked for spectacular profits.  Good luck selling your physical on Ebay.  LMFAO!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:15 | 1226189 I only kill chi...
I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

Physical vs Paper, now playing. I never give a shit about NY Globex opening, let's see what Hong Kong does.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:16 | 1226193 Slash
Slash's picture

meh this should not be surprising to anyone. The fucking chart was parabolic. The powers that be let the dumb retail all pile in and now they're punishing the sheep. certainly a chance to buy physical, but if you were long the paper market, you were asking for it.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1226206 r101958
r101958's picture

Physical holders are only getting punished if they sell physical. This is all about paper.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 05:18 | 1228552 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

And if futures or exercised options holders stand for delivery, then the physical holders who deliver get punished, but standing for delivery is inherently less attractive with a volatile or declining commodity price.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:19 | 1226194 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Definitely some interesting currency spots this evening 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:20 | 1226199 razorthin
razorthin's picture

My pavlovian salivation tells me the final (equity) massacre nears.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:21 | 1226212 Cruzan Stomp Revival
Cruzan Stomp Revival's picture

Pfft. The DXY is up a whopping .19%. Wow. What a move.

It's time to panic PM holders... not.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:24 | 1226213 r101958
r101958's picture

You are probably right razor.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:24 | 1226215 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

so tell me, if the Fed is selling puts on treasurties, then why can't they manipulate ANY market??? the only difference with PMs (physical) is if the prices is suppressed long, there will be no metal left....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:27 | 1226240 r101958
r101958's picture

Jerry.....exactly. I wonder if we would be wise to exclude any type of trick from their bag of tricks? However, it may need to be labeled something else....like Fed and Crew.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:28 | 1226248 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Sheeple, the SLV trust liquidated 31 tons of silver last week.  When the supply of idiots drys up, the price plunges.  Now lots of idiots want out with no buyers on the sidelines.

 

When you don't know who the fool is, it's you.  Fools who are long silver have nobody left to bail their stupid asses out.  LMFAO!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:41 | 1226342 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Who's the fool?

 

The one with a tangible physical asset or one holding a paper promise?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:36 | 1228403 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

unclebigs you're drooling.  better grab a frn and wipe that up!  then put it in your wallet for a rainy day.

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