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What Keeps Wall Street Up At Night (Quarterly Edition)
Two quarters ago it was the muni implosion, last quarter it was sovereigns blowing up (again). Now, it's oil, and the stench of out of control inflation sending precious metals to daily all time record highs, that is keeping Wall Street up at night (yet doing nothing than seemingly providing one after another "buy the dip" opportunity). Every quarter the prevailing investing and spec opinion focuses on one key bogeyman in the wall of worry and refuses to let go, even as, or particularly because of, the Fed, in conjunction with the HFT-controlled market, sells vol to the point where everyone pretends risk is under control. Of course, it isn't, and neither the muni crisis has gone away, nor the threat of sovereign insolvency, nor pervasive inflationary threats (just buy gas in Europe). However, the fact that the Fed systematically takes on one conventional wisdom risk factor after another, and sells into every vol rally, almost certainly via curve exposure, but arguably via equity volatility indices as well (see thought by Artemis Capital on the subject), masks the symptom of an underlying systemic collapse until the market focuses on the next hotspot, which the Fed may or may not be able to resolve. And since we have finally moved on the biggest Fed artifact of all: inflation (and rampant one at that), the Fed's ability to extend and pretend the inevitable correction that needs to happen to push oil down to sub-$100 may be now coming to an end.
Here is how Bank of America's clients determine what the key concerns were for the past two quarters:
Below is Jeffrey Rosenberg's commentary on how and why Wall Street has now made it into a habit of selling into any fear drop.
Our quarterly survey of largest risk to the outlook has been a good source of contrarian trading strategies. From last autumns’ deflation concern (contrarian viewpoint: interest rates should rise), to December’s US municipal risks (contrarian viewpoint: credit risk overstated) to today’s concern over rising oil prices (contrarian viewpoint: oil market uncertainty overstated), each of these concerns have failed to deliver a significant asset price correction. The last one – oil market concerns – still lies ahead of us in terms of the lagged impact of rising gasoline prices on consumers, but the market’s fears (as judged by implied volatility in options) indicates improvement in confidence that a “super spike” can be avoided eroding one of our original motivations for a tactical underweight recommendation.
In other words, BTFD until BTFD as a strategy fails spectacularly and the trade of aligning with the Fed always and forever no longer works.
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what is keeping wall street up at night is all the blow and hookers from bonuses and qeii
pitty them, its all they have.
GLOBEX just opened and silver drops from 48 to 42 USD/ozt.
Time to get rid of worthless fiat crappola.
Wonder how long 42 will last. Minutes?
Will they cancel trades below 45?
JPM smells like a rotting corpse.
And in other news -while we are on the zombie subject- Mayor Bloomberg calls for illegal mexicans to jumpstart Motor City:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/01/bloomberg-make-new-immigrants...
He should know that Detroit is not the only zombie town in the US.
How long before he calls upon illegal mexicans to "jumpstart Wall Street"?
Then we'd have to build a wall around Detroit and patrol it with helicopters and eventually send in Snake Plissken to "chew bubblegum & kick ass!" Errr...I mean Roddy Piper ;)
“And if I were the federal government, assuming you could wave a magic wand and pull everybody together, you pass a law letting immigrants come in as long as they agreed to go to Detroit and live there for five or 10 years. Start businesses, take jobs, whatever.” – New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Whatever? Instant welfare.
Found some support.
This shit moves so fast, I'm starting to get a feeling that the intermediate bottom is in at 42,65 BTFD
LMAO
CFTC approved market manipulation at its finest.
No, the COMEX margin increase was an attempt to reverse the manipulation that caused silver to go parabolic. Even if silver was undervalued, 200% in 9 months, and 70% over the last 3 months doesn't raise red flags? Come on. Unless the dollar turns to confetti in the next few months, this bubble is over.
I have news for you. The dollar turned to confetti 40 years ago.
Utter BS manipulation. BTFD.
People probably think you're joking. Being truth I find it quite funny.
Whats going on with silver boys? That is one hell of a drop at the open.
Go ahead and hold your breath.
One should mention all the thousands of Wall Street funds that are long oil and metals. They are hardly losing sleep.
....Although, they are definitely the boys with the hot Latvian talent and the mirror on the table.
Maybe they'll start selling vol on inflation as well.
Nice call...one that I'd buy.
Here is what keeps the Fed up at night... fear of an all out media campaign blitz encouraged by Ron Paul to AUDIT THE FED.
http://www.chooseliberty.org/atf_bb.aspx?pid=abnd4b
They're soliciting contributions to help pay for it right now, I'm sending 3 ounces worth of silver their way. I hope others care enough to help spread an education about the Fed's crimes to the proles... I personally write "END THE FED" on every reserve note I spend.
Interestingly, I just wrote it on a dollar bill stamped with "Ron Paul For President" ... probably from the last campaign. Awesome to see others contributing to the defacing of the criminal bank's debt notes....
Ron Paul is a wet lettuce. If he was going to do something, he would have done it by now, after all he is "chairman of the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy".
Ron Paul offers the same 'hope and change' that obumma did...
... hope is all they offer, because there is zero chance of change for good. All bought and paid for scum.
I don't think the Fed will ever be audited. But I think its "hope" that the proles can latch onto and then start asking questions "What is the Fed?" "What do they do?" "Can we do without them?" and the list goes on. I have zero faith that the Fed will ever be audited, but I do have faith that this "campaign" to audit the Fed will help to awaken a few sleepers inside the Matrix... Three ounces for the chance to awaken three sleepers is worth it for me. In reality, probably far more will be impacted by my small donation.
he may be the chairman but he doesn't have unlimited power.
He's already submitted bills to audit the fed, which was subsequently watered down by other congressman.
He has proposed numerous bills that have not even made it to the floor to be voted on.
Clearly you don't understand how the republic works.
Although Obama is terrible as a leader, except for veto'ing bills and executive orders, he also doesn't have as much power as you'd like to think. It's the 535 senators and congressmen who propose, debate and vote on the bills.
Ron Paul is one man against 534 other representatives.
Who passed Obamacare? Obama? actually no, it was voted on by a majority of congressmen. Although Obama didn't veto it, he couldn't pass it by himself.
It's right, but as chairman, Paul can schedule hearings. Bring light to issue. Why no hearings?
They will get to the bottom of the Fed alright, but it won't be an audit.
It will be an autopsy.
+1
By the same will we will not have our silver taken but from our cold dead hands,
the plutocrats will not have their power taken.
Funky, close but more like Paul is 'maintained' like a pressure escape valve or a toothless lion in the circus.
RP said he wouldn't end the Fed on Fox. He's either scared or pandering.
Why haven't you ended the Fed?
Cause I'm just the quiet guy you pass on the street, opening doors for women, talking to the men who want to talk about whatever. Quiet survivalist that will step up when necessary. Cutting grass for old folks for free. You'd never notice me. Till you do.
I think Ron Paul is a bright enough guy that he knows what it means to "end the fed"... it means political suicide and also somehow commit suicide with not one, but two bullets through the back of his skull. The "end the fed" campaign will not originate from inside the legislative branch.
No, I think Ron Paul knows that the only way to end the fed is to let the collapse happen. He's pretty adament about having the laws changed to ensure that we can escape from the Fed when it does happen. ie: His tax policy... or should I say ZERO-tax on silver and gold.
Strange, I have a $20 right here in my wad stamped BACKED BY NOTHING in red right under In God We Trust and a $100 stamped END THE FED! in greenback green. Must be a trend. Thanks for the link, I just got an email from Campaign 4 Liberty to contrib $17.76 but they forgot to put a link in it. All righty then....
+1 for C4L
i stop at the liquor store today...give the guy a twenty..he test it with his magic pen...it passed..the guy gave me back a 5...than i told him the 5 he was giving me was counterfiet money....
Nice +1
Audit what? Piles of fucking paper?
The U.S. economy is based on fucking paper backed with bullets and bombs.
.
I don't understand why post is here. I'll delete again because makes no sense.
hey captain, i'll join you on that good idea.
we can get the word out to the sheeple and piss off the fed at the same time when the "defaced" inflated notes come back at half buying power.
like monty python said:
Arthur: "good idea o lord"
God: "of course it's a good idea"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ42IMu7HIQ
Hard not to notice the constant gold and silver bash articles every day. Whole presentations Bout the commodity angle but miss the fiat failing reality.
I'll be betting on a trade war then that collapses global demand/gdp and ushers in the great wave of deflation we are inevitably going to get. Looking at that poll i cant be wrong.
Does this help?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Value_of_US_dollar.gif
Just look how big those deflations are... Um... Wait, the chart says something else.
It is possible for the value of the dollar AND asset prices to fall. And that is just what is going to happen. So far youve only be lucky enough to deal with the deflationary dollar. The end of this system will deal with both. Soon you will marvel at how you can buy brand new Ford Shitbangs for 5 grand. It will be a shame your job only pays 5 grand a year though and the Dows at 3k.
You accidently put a k behind the 3.
LOL +1 !
There will be no audit and no default, as such; also no PM confiscation. Never, ever.
I am all-in short and simply fixing to grit my teeth to the close tomorrow because I am again pessimistic of yet another gap open and low-volume run. Why? Why not. And had Khadaffy been whacked, we would gap +200 on the DOW. Why not.
Short, the last two years, has been nothing but folly. Like hoping a dictator whom we have no reason to be gunning for, doesn't get killed. I am near capitulation on short positions for the duration.
TFLMS.
Silver seems to be the only possible short term short position right now. I agree you cant possibly short anything else from here except possibly oil.
It is a shitty market when everything is a speculation, even guaranteed accounts or cash under the mattress.
It's all the same bogeyman.
coke
Buy gas in Europe? I got a letter through the door 2 days ago and couldnt beleive what i was seeing; a 40% increase in one price jump. I am not kidding, 40% !! , and the consumer body let them get away with it...i feel sorry for the elderly, because they got pay-as-you-go gas meters, and now they cant change supplier. Sick.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13147146
WOW! That is a killer increase..... :(
Hey Gramps, meet Darwin.
All of those promises we made to you "Gramps" when you were a young man.... well you're too old to do anything about it so fuck-off, and we'll tax your old ass on your way out.
"we'll tax your old ass"
Who's we, asshole? We don't have anything to tax. We spent it all on blow and hookers. Now we've got our hand out. We're the country's largest voting block and we've got one thing on our mind. You're gonna pay for our retirement. And if you don't think so, you'll be picking cotton at a FEMA "plantation".
Whoops.
I meant "they".
I can't wait for a correction in the price of oil... I am fed up taking out mortgage after mortgage after mortgage for each tank of fuel to go to buy less and less food for the same money as I did the week earlier
The only thing keeping wall street up at night is counting all the money they've stolen.
Yeah...and brew up some more schemes.
What keeps them up at night?
Keeping those futures juiced as fuck, that's what!
Opens up +50 with the spigot on bitch.
What a fucking pathetic joke this has become.
Someone below had a great idea.
Why not start writing or stamping on the cash we spend
END THE FED
BACKED BY NOTHING
Could we make it go viral?
Bubonic plague would be more effective.
The general public would have to have some basic idea what you are talking about. Good luck with that. Start with Mrs. Boilermaker first...please...I've tried and failed multiple times now.
...
yep, i'm in. "defacing is fun".
try buying gas in Canada eh... try $5.40/gallon, how about them apples eh?
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
Gold is going straight up...could be interesting this week...
you mean straight down....
Buy hard assets.
Paper is backed by promises. Promises are frequently broken
These are my observations:
Near Everyone:
-Convinced of Hyperinflation
-Convinced of gold and silver as safe havens
-FED infatuated and their ability to control markets
-Convince that QE rules
-Not a bear to be found
-Most are ignoring the cess pool of debt
-Erosion of credit availability; eg. banks not lending
-Ignoring House price plunges
-Ignoring RISK
-Comlacency is outrageous (see VIX at multi-year lows)
Ahh, which side would be the contrarian side?
hint: Only one side is correct...herd or contrarian?
It's either don't fight the Fed, or reality wins. Gonna be interesting to see how long it takes tho.
Quite. Trade wars and deflation look like the next big trends for the momos to get surprised about.
Silver going off the cliff here...WTF??????????
Wondering the same thing. down 13% wtf?
Looks like "They" want to shake out those that still believe in paper.
"AUDIT THE FED" is soon to plasted across the spare tire cover on the back of my Jeep-one small way of getting the message out.
WTF is going on with Silver?? Down $4.20 in minutes!!!
It's all flowing into REITs. Everyone knows REIT equity is the only financial instrument that goes up 1% everyday. Silver is too tangible to have value.
In other words, the FED is going to cornhole everyone again roundabout 9:30 EST tomorrow.
wonder how much this is costing the US taxpayer to push down silver like this. Bet it is over $50 by tomorrow morning.
doubt it brother, there are a lot of phone calls being made right now. I'm long physical, so for me this is just another buying op, but i feel bad for those who are long paper :(
JPM and friends maybe trying manifest a bear run? Where is turd when you need him.
Best place to be is long physical. I smell desperation. Three margin hikes in 48 hours, now a 12% whack during overseas trading. Who are these cocksuckers trying to convince? Do they think everyone will suddenly sell their physical?? Doubt it.
agreed. i'm not selling. paper burns. the ponzi scheme continues. corporatists (fascists) have the rule. the Constitution is under attack. police state is here. inflation continues. there are no jobs.
yes, it's just one big f-n joke for the sheeple.....
Turd is here: tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com
Thanks!
@hearst
Agreed, I think we are gonna smell a lot worse than desperation soon lol Can't wait to see that 35.00 print so i can get more.
How much is it costing the US taxpayer?? Holy shit, that's precious. Like they give a fuck.
I have learned the hard way with silver...wait until the dust settles, i got killed averaging down once, (i was trying to trade it like currency). XAG bounces like physical, i.e. it dont. (i must say, that is a killer move)
Comical manipulation. They are attempting a monster shake-out.
Watching netdania I see Ag crashing . . . wow.
down 5.13....WTF????????????????
and coming back up at only 3.33 down.....
touche!
Insanity is doing something over and over that does not work.
Congress and the media argue that the economy is too weak and unemployment is too high so we must continue to run large deficits and print money to keep interest rates low.
These policies only benefit the super rich and screw the poor.
The deficits allow for continued domestic consumption that is produced by Corporations overseas at slave wages in Countries w/o environmental laws.
A good example is the near trillion dollars of student loans that keeps young people in school and allows them to fund life styles and products (ipads, iphones) with debt they can't repay. Student loans is a massive subprime lending problems that going to blow up.
If student loans were cut; there would be riots. True of most spending.
now down $5
If you couldn't tell, since April 18th, that the FED is in full-on ramrod mode, then I don't know what to say.
They doubled down, then tripled down, then threw the rolex on the table, then bet their kids, then their grand kids, and are now simply going to shove literally everything into the pot.
You're about to see outlandish shit on a biblical scale. You should never underestimate the lengths that the privileged will go to remain privileged.
Car RamRod?
agreed boilermaker. i think we got 'em scared good! of course they hope we get scared with their tactics, but we recognize those tactics now. but i think all if us here at zh know better. we no longer fall for the scare tactics.
for those still in doubt:
"we have nothing to fear but the federal reserve note itself!"
Is silver a major BTFD, or did the world just end?
The fairy godmother came back and waved her magic want and everything is ok now.
Whew! I'm glad you cleared things up. For a second there, I had a vision of the price dropping all the way to $0.00
It will. Didn't you read what I said? The fairy godmother is back, and she means business.
http://content9.flixster.com/question/21/78/36/2178363_std.jpg
Paper price will have downward bias, but this will break the COMEX, and liberate the price of physical. The only way these guys have been able to meet delivery demands thus far has been to let the price rise, allowing them to vacuum some supply off of the market. A rapidly falling price will dry up all supply, and then a few longs will bring us to the endgame--IF they have the guts to stand.
tmosley, I have a question for you. Your comments above remind of FOFOA's thoughts on where gold will be going (physical price separating from paper).
Is that what you see for silver as well? Too much paper (paper owners) per real physical ounce?
What the F*ck is going on?!?!!?!?!?
Blythe resurrected from the dead??
Better buy the dip on silver now.
WTF was that. Silver's Down 12% in minutes, gold is up?. WTF IS THIS
Do they not have to crash PMs to make the equity rise more believable to the masses?
Honestly, isn't that the last hurdle?
As predicted--infinite volatility, with a downward bias on the paper markets, and an upward bias in the physical markets.
I'd say the COMEX is about to break. A lower spot price means they can't get ANY silver out of the strong hands holding it now.
Get your FRNs ready for conversion -- I hope it drops $10. More for me!
I would rather see it go up $5.
I love it cause tomorrow I'll go out and buy even more.
CNBC, if you can go there without barfing, is claiming much higher margins at CME for Au.
I've been F5'ing APMEX since the open & the quote is whipsawing all over the place, $1+ changes in the span of the 10 seconds it takes for the page to refresh.
Also noticing Kitco & APMEX aren't even close to being synchronized. I'm used to a small discrepancy, but they haven't been within $.30 of each other since the open; at least not from what I can see.
http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-e...
Where's that little punk bitch that was calling me a contrarian indicator and saying how he bought silver just because I sold mine?
How are ya feeling tonight punk?
silver -12%
Uh-huh. How much gain did you realize? How much did you lose in the transaction costs? Are you planning on getting back in? If so, do you think there will be any supply left by the time you do?
I made nachos and it cost me nachos in transaction costs.
Nacho bizness stranger.
I made enough, that's all you need to know.
Hope it stays down until the morning. Want to buy more Ag.
I'm liking it mid-30's but that run up to 50 was just blinding.
EUR/USD dropping now. WTI crude not moving yet.
The coming flood of the Mississippi river delta and the assassination attempt on a foreign leader yesterday are two things that are keeping me awake at night.
It's silver and copper thats getting hit..copper is comfortably below 4.20..didn't faber say that when copper goes , so does the S&P?..they've been moving together on the upside
if the market tops it'll trap alot of traders who bought the breakout
The Asians are going to jump all over this dip. Watch. It really smells of desperation, doesn't it? CRIMEX must be really fucked. I guess no one wanted the $100 dollar expiry premium.
Decimation, courtesy of TPTB.
Natty is legit.
pretty ugly. Something stinks.
TYLER!! what is going on?
I smell desperation. Trying to take out silver. Gold was up quite a bit at open but since then it has lost some of the gain.The big boys trying to take gains in the paper market. You certainly wouldn't sell that much physical at a loss. So, another attempt at manipulation.
You are right. It's a desperate move, but I don't think it's going to do what "they" think it's going to do. They are wanting everyone to freak out and dump the physical..because THEY NEED PHYSICAL AND DON'T HAVE IT!! BTFD!!
Blythe is really on the warpath tonight ---- will this last til tuesday?
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Silver Bull is now officially over Sheeple. LMFAO!!!! Should have sold on Friday. LMFAO!!!!!!!!!
You living with blinders on? So, what has fundamentally changed since Friday.....nada.
as you wish oh wise nadler one....
get real! that paper price means dick.
jobs suddenly come back to usa? no!
politicians have a sudden change of heart? no!
japan radiation problem ended? no!
did the world just end? no!
did all the wars stop? no!
is the euro debt crisis over? no!
is the usa debt crisis over? no!
i could go on, but you sir must be a narrow-minded paper loving fool.
i'll enjoy the day we pass your "Should have sold on Friday" price because it must occur. what will you do then nadler? call another top? puh-leeeeze!
This is being done as there is no more actual metal to be had...future delivery depends on this happening. BTFD!!
agreed. i see this locally by me.
there is no silver unless you want scratch and dent or agree to pay +20% over spot for the little "nice" silver that's available.
remember people, we are doing this to keep it from the banksters whom we loathe.
Hu Jintao is smiling. He's about to save a fortune because he's still buying.
Who gives a rat's ass what Hung Farlow is doing.
The CME raised the futures 2 times last week folks, don't be a sheep, press buy.. not sell.
Keep a steady hand and BTFD.. This is war now, It will pay back nicely soon enough.
The Bad Guy.
Hurry Sheeple. Apmex just bought a shitload of 90% junk silver at $48/ounce last week. Should be receiving the crap on Monday. LMFAO!!!! Hope the Apmex Assholes hedged or they are taking it up the ass on that trade.
Nice try bigs. I have talked to quite a few folks and more are not even aware of silver/gold prices than are familiar. That is not a bubble. This is something quite different. Manipulation or some type of quid pro quo with another government. Perhaps to make up for holding down the price of something else....oh, maybe oil. Sorry, I don't believe in coincidence and Ben did not just push the 'destroy dollar' button.
APMEX is fully hedged. If they weren't, they would have gone out of business in 2008.
I expect Apmex or another large dealer to go bankrupt when the bust hits. Their hedges cost them a lot of money and it was just too tempting to go naked for spectacular profits. Good luck selling your physical on Ebay. LMFAO!!!!
Physical vs Paper, now playing. I never give a shit about NY Globex opening, let's see what Hong Kong does.
meh this should not be surprising to anyone. The fucking chart was parabolic. The powers that be let the dumb retail all pile in and now they're punishing the sheep. certainly a chance to buy physical, but if you were long the paper market, you were asking for it.
Physical holders are only getting punished if they sell physical. This is all about paper.
And if futures or exercised options holders stand for delivery, then the physical holders who deliver get punished, but standing for delivery is inherently less attractive with a volatile or declining commodity price.
Definitely some interesting currency spots this evening
My pavlovian salivation tells me the final (equity) massacre nears.
Pfft. The DXY is up a whopping .19%. Wow. What a move.
It's time to panic PM holders... not.
You are probably right razor.
so tell me, if the Fed is selling puts on treasurties, then why can't they manipulate ANY market??? the only difference with PMs (physical) is if the prices is suppressed long, there will be no metal left....
Jerry.....exactly. I wonder if we would be wise to exclude any type of trick from their bag of tricks? However, it may need to be labeled something else....like Fed and Crew.
Sheeple, the SLV trust liquidated 31 tons of silver last week. When the supply of idiots drys up, the price plunges. Now lots of idiots want out with no buyers on the sidelines.
When you don't know who the fool is, it's you. Fools who are long silver have nobody left to bail their stupid asses out. LMFAO!!!
Who's the fool?
The one with a tangible physical asset or one holding a paper promise?
unclebigs you're drooling. better grab a frn and wipe that up! then put it in your wallet for a rainy day.