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What To Make Of Today's Market Move

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A visual summary of today's action...

And a verbal one, courtesy of Peter Tchir from TF Market Advisors:

If not unprecedented moves we are certainly witnessing a rare day in the markets.  The entire energy complex is down 5-10%.  Metals and agriculture are down 2-5% except for silver, down a whopping 11%! The Eur has depreciated 2%.  So far stocks have been largely immune to the move and credit has completely ignored it.

Clearly a combination of crowded trades, margin increases, and surprisingly dovish comments from Trichet sparked this move.  It's clear that the moves down are triggering additional stops and that no one has been willing to step up and play for a big bounce.

Equities have remained fairly calm so far.  Certainly a decrease in commodity prices is helpful and would go a long way to ease one of the main concerns expressed by company after company.  The move in the dollar is a little more troubling as the weak dollar has clearly been a positive for the economy and profits.  But the reality is that the stock market is a little like dear in headlights right now.  Investors aren't used to seeing moves of 10% in a commodity as important as oil.  I think the initial reaction of doing nothing will give way to selling.  Investors taking losses in commodities will take profits in stocks or at least raise some cash to post additional margin on their remaining positions.  The economic data has been weak at best and deteriorating, eroding support for stocks.  None of the major problems in the world have been solved, they have been merely swept under the carpet or ignored, but are still there.  The sovereign debt crisis is not better, if anything it's becoming more clear that default is likely for at least Greece.  Japan is still in the early stages of dealing with the consequences of the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster.  MENA remains troublesome.  With all the excitement of taking out Osama, no one focused on the fact that the 'No Fly Zone' in Libya has expanded into bombing buildings where Quadaffi is living. 

If the selling starts, the reports show that margin debt and net leverage in the stock market are back to extremely high levels.  Any selling in stocks could trigger margin calls there too.  The housing market remains a mess and fraudclosure hasn't gone away, if anything, it seems a safe bet that DB and MortgageIT are not the only entities in the crosshairs of the government. 

Clearly something is going on in the markets that is not natural.  Liquidity is at a premium.  Stocks have watched it calmly so far, but I expect they will get dragged into this as well and we will see margin liquidations in stocks too.  All indications are that people are pretty fully invested.  As mentioned earlier this week, stocks had lots of excuses to rally early in the week, but couldn't.  The buy the dip mentality is still there, and that could rescue stocks, but since the sell off in other assets does not appear normal, I wouldn't rely on buy the dip to save stocks.

Credit is completely ambivalent right now.  That largely makes sense, but we all know that credit is always liquid until it isn't.  It may be time to start shorting some LQD and HYG.  The carry is low, the markets have been supported by a big influx of cash - HYG has the most shares outstanding ever, and LQD has seen a strong rebound in shares outstanding recently.  I don't think there is anything wrong with the fundamentals in credit.  Companies have generally cleaned up their balance sheet and earnings are fine, but if investors need to raise some cash this market is as likely to get sold as any, and the speed of the sell off could be surprising.  With high yield, only yielding 7.5% I'm assuming many hedge funds have had to use some leverage to get potential returns above 10%.  If any move down remains small, they will grow their positions, but at some point, they will have to cut positions to defend their returns.  Many are relucantly long at these levels, so their willingness to hold on is lower than usual as they are not in love with the market at these prices.

In summary I would be very careful here.  I would be short stocks, light if not short credit, and would be looking for opportunities to go long the energy sector in particular. It will be interesting to see how China reacts overnight and I expect tomorrow's NFP to be a big disappointment - though I'm looking forward to hearing some new creative excuses as to why it was weak.  

 

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Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:59 | 1245377 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, Juan.  Long Juan Silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:18 | 1245423 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

You sure it's not willy the bastard?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:36 | 1245482 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

That's what I thought!  William The Fucktarded Bastard always picked a fight with me, and junked me, which is fine (hey man, I've got stripes!).  I think I was one of his favourite targets.  Long Wrong on Silver rarely targeted me (mostly stuck to tmosley et al), so I think this multiple identity disorder troll is the former rather than the latter. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:09 | 1244857 dieyoung
dieyoung's picture

It hurts but im a masochist. I WANT MORE SILVER

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:30 | 1245035 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Head on over to Tulving.com. Just bought some silver Maples at $2.69 over $34.46 spot. 

*I have no affiliation with them, but if you can get over the minimums they have great prices and are easy to work with. Please, please don't use Northwest Territorial Mint. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:50 | 1245111 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

I haven't used them usually just use sprottmoney, mainly because they are 3 blocks from my office. Picked up some overnight, about 9 hrs too early.

You have to wonder if this is the beginning of 2008 all over again, first commodities fall, followed in a while by the markets. Great time to sell QE3.

More thoughts on this here:

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=890

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:34 | 1245280 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

yes, looks like time to shift the 401k funds around before they collapse

keep buying physical, but do it locally since you can always get just a buck over spot while online always stabs you a few times

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:36 | 1245286 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I would be quite thankful for another three years to stockpile gold and silver, honestly.  A literal repeat of the last three years would allow me to perhaps triple of quadruple my stash.  And that is FINE with me.

But I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen.  This feels more like Germany circa 1922 than America circa 2008.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:49 | 1245340 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

I would be quite thankful for another three years to stockpile gold

 The sad logic of a trapped sucker.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:01 | 1245383 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, I'm up 200% on average and somehow a sucker.

You are still a moron, long juan silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1244859 ivars
ivars's picture

By the way, I predicted this early May dip in Brent oil prices already on February 6th:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a#p30486

That is , Brent 100-110 USD.

Today, Brent is 110 USD. That means that bottom is very close, this week or early next week. And that will be the last bottom that is so low in many years to come.

What follows is a rapid increase in June-July to 140 USD (QE3?)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:50 | 1245346 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Why don't you just post this 4 or 5 more times right here and save yourself the bother of posting it in other articles.   

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:24 | 1245437 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

You deal, correct?.

Have you gone on 'vacation' yet?

Just curious...

My coin dealer was a pleasant nominal thinker, business with notional being the anchor - not anymore. Now, it seems he's changed and stepping outside his original business model.

Not good for me. ; ) 

Sat, 05/07/2011 - 11:57 | 1250971 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yes, I'm a coin dealer but I am also a philatelist and deal in stamps and associated items.   My coin dealing is currently confined to rolling generic silver into U S coinage, and as close to numismatic as I can get it without paying a premium over spot.   Having coins or numismatic items will lessen the possibility of having to give it up if/when the gov't declares silver a "strategic" metal and try to take it all.   I'm dealing for my own account.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 01:39 | 1246485 ivars
ivars's picture

Repeating is a mother of knowledge.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:09 | 1244860 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

With 1s and 0's just flying throughout the international finance vortex, does anyone really know where to put the decimal point now?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:09 | 1244861 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:09 | 1244862 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

You useless fucken "investors" got burned.  Al-Qaeda should have hit wall street while they were at it.

The cost of living is always the same.  Everything you got.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:23 | 1245251 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Al-Qaeda is Wall St.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1244868 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244923 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In my house we all used various size salad bowls for a nice even hair cut all the way around. The ears sticking out were always problematic though.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:50 | 1245075 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

OK CD that's it...

not only are we about the same age, but it appears we grew up in the same house.

Here's something to make my fellow "old fart's" day:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzA_qmJkmLY&NR=1

I don't suppose it is THIS Davy Jones that has Osama's body in his locker???

Oh, and is that a young Max Keiser on drums?

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:51 | 1245123 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You know I don't seem to remember The Monkees as being a boy band. But of course they were. However I did hold the line at purchasing "TEEN" magazine.

I borrowed my sisters instead. :>)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:51 | 1245352 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I was a Dave Clark 5 fan anyhow....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:59 | 1245567 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I was in love with Susan Dey once...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:53 | 1245542 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

Thanks for the picture CD!

I have my photograph in TEEN Magazine from many years ago and am quite proud of it, though nobody else could give a shit!  :>)

I think that is indeed a young Max Keiser on the drums.

Looking forward to your next article. 

Hope you and yours are well.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:30 | 1245712 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

we all know what financed the Monkeys..? 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:07 | 1245177 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The ears sticking out were always problematic though.

Try using a meat cleaver instead of scissors, then the ears are not such a problem.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:22 | 1245666 LMAO
LMAO's picture
by LMAO
on Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:21
#1245661

 

What are you trying to tell us Banzai?

 

Are you hinting that the Chinese are willing to take a haircut on their holdings of US debt?

 

LMAO

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 01:38 | 1246486 ivars
ivars's picture

One day they will have to, not so far away.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 01:49 | 1246503 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The girl looks more Japanese to me...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:22 | 1244950 Mercury
Mercury's picture

And that is enough to bring all office activity to a standstill.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:24 | 1244991 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

Can't say why, but I find this strangely sexy!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:27 | 1245017 max2205
max2205's picture

Oil traders look at this and see their dick between the blades....whooooooa

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:37 | 1245069 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

OK, this mental image I am not finding sexy!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:29 | 1245010 max2205
max2205's picture

got it...lol

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:29 | 1245011 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Graphic as usual...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:37 | 1245290 Ben Dover
Ben Dover's picture

too true. too true...

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:36 | 1245484 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

Cute

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:20 | 1245661 LMAO
LMAO's picture

dup

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:07 | 1244869 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

So if these computers keep spitting out data and prices and stuffs. Should we react to it at all or just fucking ignore it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jvqPvDUEW8

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244903 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Do like I do at the cash register with my EBT card, ignore it.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:10 | 1244870 American idle
American idle's picture

Many hand written notes passed across fine oaken desks today.
"Do so, or your estate may be in jeopardy".

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:10 | 1244871 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ok, so everything (PM's, commodities, equities, non-US currencies) is down by a huge amount, and the USDX is barely up 1%?  Where is the money going?

Dare I say, physical gold and silver?

If anyone else has any ideas, I would love to hear them.  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244955 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Every single oz of it that has been freed up, for sure.  Where the rest went, who knows?  But the dollar move being 1/3 the commodity complex tells you what's real and what's engineered.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:27 | 1244993 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

I mentioned this on another thread. Completely confused at this. Does the differences in the velocity of money in different markets have an impact on prices relatively speaking? Volume? I don't know, it makes no sense.

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:26 | 1245013 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

It's quite simple...

Shorting the USD to buy a range of commodities and currencies on margin has been this year's preferred carry trade. Due to the leverage involved, a relatively-small unwind/move in the USD caused 6%+ swings across the commodity complex.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:33 | 1245041 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

The money is flowing where it always goes. To the bankstas.

CNBS is giggleing like little school girls.

there is no reason to protect the position of fiat, unless you profit from it, doing God's work.

Commodities are grouped loosely, so that they have thin market vulnerabilities.

To attack the es, you have to attack each individual holding, too. Of course they the mega bitches, do that too.

Oct 2008, tankage was needed to get the puppet obibble elected. McCain held his senate seat and all is good.

TPTB will continue to go to great lengths to protect the ponzi. Fraud and all government can't stop it.

Hold the physical, pop a beer and tell them, FUCK YOU.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:14 | 1245212 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Bankstas have to put it somewhere.  If they hold the money in dollars, the dollar goes up.  If they hold it in gold, gold goes up, if they hold it in stocks, stocks go up.

You should be able to tell where the money is going.

Must be treasuries, which is the only thing I don't have an easy method to track, and with risk off, that is where you would probably expect it.  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:37 | 1245298 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Insecure people tend to post 1,000 times a day defending a busted trade.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:44 | 1245330 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm sure that is the case, Long Juan Silver.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:50 | 1245347 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Boo Hoo you whiner.

You act like you lost money this weeki

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:04 | 1245386 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nope.  My money is still in the safe, with more on the way soon.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:00 | 1245156 Mach1513
Mach1513's picture

It's just GONE! Marked to market. It's not even paper a la the Bernank. Just ethereal computer entries. Nothing.

Just like with the housing bubble and real estate prices. There is NO MONEY!

You're not George C. Scott.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:11 | 1245203 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No.  Money flows.  When people sell one thing they buy another.  I want to know what is being bought, because I don't see it.  With houses, no-one owned their homes--the banks did.  They were stuck with a depreciating asset when that bubble burst.  But silver doesn't depreciate, nor does gold, and they are paid for with cash- or they are yanked back by margin calls.  The only way for the dollar value of those metals to go down is for people to sell them.  

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:15 | 1245221 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

That fully paid house went down in price just as much as the levered one,

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:39 | 1245306 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, but if the whole sector was made up of fully paid off houses, it never would gone so high, and it wouldn't have fallen.

It was driven by cheap credit.  Gold and silver have not been driven by cheap credit, but by cheap money.  The housing bubble popped because the cheap credit was withdrawn.  Has the cheap money been withdrawn?  No.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:43 | 1245320 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Maybe I wasn't clear.

That fully paid house went down in price just as much as the levered one.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:48 | 1245334 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, you're just stupid.  And still not a reader.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:54 | 1245353 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

You are the stipud 1.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:07 | 1245391 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Not a writer, either, I guess.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:24 | 1245691 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Tmosely's point is it only goes down if you are trying to sell. People that bought their house didn't lose money cause they got the use out of their house and have no interest in selling. 

You only lose money when you sell low or buy high on leverage. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:03 | 1245595 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

The difference is, the people in the underwater one can't stay afloat.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:57 | 1245560 Slim
Slim's picture

Levered asset sales are going to have a magnified affect on the asset vs. the eventual cash raise.  On top of that with big down vol moves there likely aren't a whole lot of people looking to put money to work so losses are magnified relative to fully delevered and returned cash.  Basically its asymetric impact with asset having much higher vol that original funds left.  Treasuries moved up significantly so that's probably a logical destination. 

The issue here is that a lot of this run is based on sentiment built around a projected view of the future.  These trades attracted a whole lot of momentum and hot levered money.  The end of QE2 and threat that QE3 is not imminent (along with some ugly fundamental data) has people hitting the door on that.  You start popping this and you get into a deleveraging spiral very quickly which trashes sentiment not only for the trade but for individual assets (gold/silver is heavily sentiment driven anytime you get significantly north of current industrial use costs which are the logical floor).  Oil was similar in 2008 - no supply/demand fundamentals at all, just hot money on momentum and sentiment.  Blew up in epic proportions once it reversed.  Probably won't be that bad but the symptoms and catalysts are the same.  Tech in 2000 wasn't so dissimilar, heavy sentiment and no underlying fundamentals (although many cases were made and far far more than will admit today were true believers).

Too many people trading momentum and using leverage creates a market like this.  At the end of the day, if you are an investor and managing your risk correctly, this is a buying opportunity.  It might last a short while or many years depending on how things play out.  If on the other hand someone has overdone it, gotten greedy, and is fixated on pricing, this is punishment.  Something like this is a multi-year trade anyway - parabolic moves always get killed even if they are eventually proven right down the road. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:11 | 1244876 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Silver now trading at $34.150... what the fuck? 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:11 | 1244894 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Funniest part is, I cant find any silver to buy at under $48!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244930 unky
unky's picture

what? even in germany it currently sells for  28€ / oz including a 7% VAT. u better look around better

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:58 | 1245368 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Due to heightened market activity please expect delays in customer service, accounting, shipping, and receiving.

I don't like that "shipping" part.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:21 | 1244944 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

Try onlygold.com (I have no interest, but have purchased there. Good honest folks). They show Eagles: 38.40; maples: 37.75, etc. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:31 | 1245042 Antarctico
Antarctico's picture

Funniest part is, I cant find any silver to buy at under $48!

Isn't this what was predicted by the Silver Bears in their last video, that there would be two prices for silver, the spot price and the actual (higher) price for buying physical?

Yea, so my most valued source of PM information, apparently, are computer animated bears.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:38 | 1245294 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

not many people are going to sell their physical below $48 but many of them are looking to buy at the lowest...  this can't go on for long is what the bears say..  look at all the waiting periods for physical, how can physical price drop when everyone is on backorder?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:32 | 1245048 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Just bought some Maples at Tulving for $34.46 spot + $2.69 premium. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:39 | 1245070 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I have some eagles that I'll sell you for $47.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:09 | 1244881 william shatner
william shatner's picture

It looks like Bamby went to Fukushima.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:12 | 1244883 Number 156
Number 156's picture

If the selling starts, the reports show that margin debt and net leverage in the stock market are back to extremely high levels.

 

Was that selling, or shelling?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:10 | 1244887 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must.....find......additional.......MARGIN!!

<:D

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:13 | 1244889 6 String
6 String's picture

NFP disappointment? No way. After today, the numbers will be totally made up on the fly.

The Russell 2000 barely budged today. It will skyrocket on the good NFP number that is sure to come out.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:11 | 1244890 SunBlaster
SunBlaster's picture

$34.37 and still going down, Get Low Get Low?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:23 | 1244987 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Wouldn't surprise if after NY trickles and before Asia market spikes down - would be fitting for the script. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:17 | 1245225 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Gonna be a fucking feeding frenzy in Asia tonight.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:13 | 1244891 themiestro
themiestro's picture

With any luck there will be some downside continuation tomorrow.  I need the cash!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:13 | 1244892 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

Coordinated crony central control corruption.

Who does Obama, Holder, and the CFTC work for?  The American People or the Banks? No prosecutions or investigations despite coordinated price fixing?

Soros and Goldman Sachs would have the inside track on this because they funded the political campaign of this administration and have positioned for the drop in commodities.

Silver may have been a trap to destroy political enemies, because Ron Paul is invested almost solely in precious metals and miners from the filings the last time he ran.  In addition, most individuals that are not into having their savings stolen through inflation and zero real interest rates for bank deposits and treasuries while the Fed and its big bank owners pocket 1% on all the public debt that they just print, are looking for a hard asset to protect wealth.  There probably is not one pro-Obama site that promotes silver and gold ownership.  These people are generally for responsible limited government spending - political enemies that now will not have the excess funds to support their political candidates.  Clearly this is agitating enemies.  Chicago politics.

The bigs are just churning through asset classes, like strip mining wealth from the nation through blowing stop limits and jumping from one asset class to the next.  The volatility is coordinated and they benefit from it, you would have to be a moron to believe this is a market.  This is price fixing.  The price is what they say it is.  Bankers with quadrillions in derivatives and a police state to enforce their will.

So one day they get together and say let's run silver to $50 and then we will all sell and short it, we'll call in our captured regulators to hike margins, and then we'll have the financial news media that we own run stories about how silver is a top to drive up the panic.  We'll buy calls on the way up while selling puts, we'll then sell calls and buy puts before the drop.  Most of the financial news is bought and paid for as part of pump and dump as well as dump and pump schemes.

Perhaps they stole Libya's gold and silver and dumped the supply on the market - the first day of the "rebel" movement they had set up a central bank and captured oil fields?  Perhaps this is a shakeout for the bigs to re-establish positions and access physical assets at a much lower price.  

Roll out the Bin-Laden story and then right when people jump in with both feet, they short the entire market, commodities and equities.  Sorry, but unless you have purchased downside protection (a small percentage of insiders) there was no safe asset class unless you consider treasuries or the dollar safe.  This reminds me of the May flash crash last year.  Bernanke wants to hear everyone beg for more QE, louder, louder, and lift the debt limit!

JPM has been bailed out again on their shorts at the expense of small investors, when losing they just keep moving the goal posts since they own government regulators.

So much for the wealth effect.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:14 | 1244910 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I hope they enjoy the smell of the hollowed out corpse of the free markets theyve killed and devoured.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244896 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244898 ivars
ivars's picture

Hey, where have your silver posts gone during the crash? Anyway, it was a clear bubble and predicted by many here.

  34,26. its getting too fast. Just a reminder of how the March 13th graph looked like- it does go down fast, I myself can not tell from the graph how fast from top to bottom- to little pixels. Its now 11 days from intraday top of 49,72, so its a 31% correction in 11 days. Not bad.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40#p31020

In the original chart, if i magnify it, peak to bottom seems to be 13-17 days. That is latest next Wednesday? Lets say, next week silver will bottom out.At around 25-30.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:15 | 1244902 meizu
meizu's picture

good job pumping silver man, making JPM short sellers rich

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244906 anony
anony's picture

That'sa whole lotta words to illustrate what someone said  a long time ago:

"Sell in May and go Away". 

Investing: 404 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244909 GhostTrader
GhostTrader's picture

Hedge fund slaughter, carry trade reversal....

 

Osama Bin Laden is as good at torpedoing western economies in death(allegedly) as he when he was alive. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:14 | 1244912 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

Weak NFP due to April showers is my guess.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:17 | 1244914 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Tyler disagrees with me on this:

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2011/05/05/slv-trading-volume-soars-while-shares-vanish/

I think I should get either a Pulitzer or a straight-jacket for this.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:27 | 1244996 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I packet sniffed the exchange and this is all that's going through it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9WdUgn0XkU

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:37 | 1245057 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I'd say the Pulitzer, but I'm sure those who think these are "free markets" would disagree with me on that. The JPM water carriers are legion lately here on PM threads.

One douchebag I saw on TV today said that silver had "triggered" the whole commodity selloff. LOL...you really can't make this shit up.

Here comes QE3 you stupid USD bull fucks...have a good time and laugh it up now. You will be burned alive in hot oil soon enough.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:17 | 1245229 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

Awww did you get a full-on bubba ass pounding today?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:56 | 1245369 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

So you get banned for posting other people's personal info, and now you come back for more?

You are such a loser. I'm sorry TD puts up with your garbage. Sad.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:14 | 1244915 MikeyKid
MikeyKid's picture

This is what you get for bringing a quill to a laser printing party.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:16 | 1244925 Cvillian
Cvillian's picture

Just turned CNBC on after about 6 months of not watching it. 

How can anyone listen to that sh-t? They have like 6 people on screen, all talking at once, rambling about reasons for today's sell off. Guess they are trying to make it like a "trading pit". Pathetically hilarious. Not a single mention of the move in the US$. Back to Golf Channel.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:27 | 1245015 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You got to thoroughly analyze your market faking. I mean your market making. LOL

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244926 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

"creative excuses"

The dog ate my job.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:18 | 1244927 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

buying opp for physical PMs

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:22 | 1244978 augie
augie's picture

might want to wait till we start going up again before you start advising this as a "buying op."

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:45 | 1245100 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

I am not "advising" I am buying today. I used to have a dog named Augie.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:35 | 1245285 augie
augie's picture

augie doggie, good christian name. better than being named sue i suppose.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244935 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Seriously what the fuck is going on?  Has gold ever dropped that much in a day?  Has silver ever dropped this much in a week?  Why aren't stocks down 5%+?  Something very very bad is coming, gonna make 2008 look like a fucking picnic.  I want to get short so bad but this market is just screwy as hell.  I could easily see the Dow -1k intraday again.  Just think all of this coming almost to the fucking day of last year's flash crash.  Are you kidding me?  Can the Dow hold up or will it completely fall apart on a bad jobs number tomorrow?  What happens when QE2 ends?  When Goldman downgrades GDP?  If Japan or the ME flares up?  The COMEX defaults?  We live in amazing times. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:37 | 1245061 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

M-A-N-I-P-U-L-A-T-I-O-N.

This is a coordinated sleight-of-hand.  But the dollar is at 74 and change.  The fundamentals are the same today as they were yesterday, the day before, and two months ago.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:40 | 1245072 J in Vegas
J in Vegas's picture

Yes sir.... I just sold 5 long positions today. I'm taking the profits and sitting on them. I bought shorts across the board (SH,SKF,SRS,PSQ,EEV,DOG,TWM,QID,SJL) last week and will watch the summer carnage now. I am liking the great buying opportunity for silver next week. I think some more coins for me next week sounds good. I am going to try to buy in at $30/oz for silver if I can time it right. There are plenty of coins in the stores around Vegas.

J in Vegas

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:41 | 1245097 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Relax.

Gold fell to where it was on way back on Tax day.

Silver fell to where it was way back on St Patricks Day.

etc etc etc...Trees don't grow to the sky.

Do TPTB still have a printing press? then you know what to do.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:47 | 1245106 Jaw Knee Cash
Jaw Knee Cash's picture

Well said. I'll say it again. It's a buying opp for physical, especially silver. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:26 | 1245257 Rinzler
Rinzler's picture

Yup.

This is the 'D' in BTFD.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:00 | 1245575 unununium
unununium's picture

This is TFD and whether or not it is over is not relevant.  Buying.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:45 | 1245763 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Mr. Sinclair say's this is just the move to drive the bus to $5k per ounce..........$1,650.00 is nothing compared to where Gld is headed.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:45 | 1245105 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

About a million black swans flying around, and the central banksters have 1 tool, a sledge hammer, hovering over the 'cntrl/prnt' button thats all.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:41 | 1245318 augie
augie's picture

Maslow say:

if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like nails.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:18 | 1244942 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Tomorrow will be huge for equities.  I can't remember the last time we've been allowed a big down Friday.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:30 | 1245016 Sparrowhawk
Sparrowhawk's picture

It could, since a terrible jobs number is now expected.  Any beat of estimates, and boom! it's time to buy.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 20:20 | 1245898 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Can four reactors have significant explosions and meltdowns?  Can heavy energized particulates reach the jetstream? Can hurricanes and tornadoes of late destroy a heartland?  Some f-5s travelling the longest recorded distance in global history?  Can the indian and pacific oceans heave out of their bounds? Will earthquakes cause groanings in the midst of earth, and will men shall fall upon the ground unable to stand?

 What of thunderings, and the resounding of lightnings, and the terror of tempests, and the screams of the waves of the sea heaving themselves beyond their bounds.

This is a time when all things are in acommotion; and when men’s bhearts fail them; when fear has come upon all people throughout the whole planet.

Topsy-turvy.  Where men's faith resides in pocketbooks and metals, where chartings make prediction that they set their hearts upon and make whisperings and rumours a devotion.

This is a time of blasphemy, men have unleashed their foreign gods and idols, and daily prostrate before defiled altars.

When every moral pollution and mental vagrancy is allowed, but never mention the great works of deity.

 

Swines, we love our pearls, and know every minute calculation of a rigged casino and the pull-arm of every gilded slot, but not the compass of our own souls.

Once everything has been taken; destroying angels tearing away your most beloved, will you begin to enter into wisdom.

Until then pretty paper, shiny things, elegant stones.  Bags of consuming pustulence.  Entirety of filth, grime, grasping, empty consumption.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:18 | 1244943 beatdown
beatdown's picture

I'm thoroughly depressed.  I still have my cache of physical gold and silver, which is great, but on Tuesday I thought about some hedging with the headwinds approaching and stared down hundreds of June SLV 30 puts at $0.21.  All I had to do was submit the damn order. They are now worth in excess of $1.40 and likely rising.  Instead, I bought a boatload of July 45 calls at $2.00 hoping for a $.50 bounce in SLV and a small profit to fund a more round number of puts.  I went to lunch and bam!  My OCD F'd me. I haven't felt this bad since my Bear Stearns deep out of the money put options were beaten up by the Buffett rumor and then expired several months before BS died.

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and I, I took the wrong fucking one, again.

At any rate, welcome to stagflation, war, and general malaise.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:26 | 1245007 augie
augie's picture

relax. Go for a run, have a drink, (A drink) or smoke a joint. You dont know whats going to happen with the rest of the month so what if your cash is tied up for a little while.

 

It's easy to grin,

When your ship comes in

And you've got the stock market beat

But the man worthwhile,

Is the man who can smile,

When his shorts are too tight in the seat.

 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:35 | 1245055 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

This week has gotten the best of me as well.

It's been damn near impossible for me to concentrate on my finals with all this BS silver manipulation going on.

I think I will take you up on that suggestion.

...time for a date with Mr. Jack Daniels.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:03 | 1245175 Rynak
Rynak's picture

There is that saying "sell in may and go away"..... i'd here say "buy in may and go away".

Make your bet, and then just sleep away this insanity.

You don't make a loss, until you sell. You don't make a win until you sell.

No one wins this month.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:46 | 1245782 DosZap
DosZap's picture

This was no USUAL sell in May and go away, this was premeditated murder.

Brough to you by Crime Inc.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:56 | 1245810 Rynak
Rynak's picture

That's how it turned "buy in may and go away" :)

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:55 | 1245364 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

I'm almost thinking tptb coordinated this silver runup and crash.  If JPM has those shorts like we are told they do and for the price to run up to $49 and they can get away without covering says something.  The game is by far rigged and that proves it right there. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:36 | 1245068 Muir
Muir's picture

@beatdown

"but on Tuesday I thought about some hedging with the headwinds approaching and stared down hundreds of June SLV 30 puts at $0.21.  All I had to do was submit the damn order. They are now worth in excess of $1.40 and likely rising.  Instead, I bought a boatload of July 45 calls at $2.00 hoping for a $.50 bounce in SLV and a small profit to fund a more round number of puts.  I went to lunch and bam!  My OCD F'd me. I haven't felt this bad since my Bear Stearns deep out of the money put options were beaten up by the Buffett rumor and then expired several months before BS died."

 

DAMN!

-

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 17:05 | 1245172 beatdown
beatdown's picture

While I won't admit to crying when the BS news broke in mid/early 2008, I'll admit that my eyes were red and watery and that I was unable to obtain an erection for at least 30 days.  This week's miss was bad, but nothing like that one.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:34 | 1245485 augie
augie's picture

http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p5197.m570.l1313&_nkw=silv...

 

physical. 45-50 an oz. see for yourself. Hope this helps lift your spirit a  little.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:07 | 1245390 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

  I still have my cache of physical gold and silver, which is great, but...

You should have stopped there. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:27 | 1245465 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture


You deal, correct?.

Have you gone on 'vacation' yet?

Just curious...

My coin dealer was a pleasant nominal thinker, business with notional being the anchor - not anymore. Now, it seems he's changed and stepping outside his original business model.

Not good for me. ; )  

BTFPhysD!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244945 AboutAverage
AboutAverage's picture

absolutely horrible.   This is crazy.  They are taking my entire position.   there has to be a bottom hit.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:33 | 1245034 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

There might be for you.  Try some diversification.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:38 | 1245078 Muir
Muir's picture

@about

"there has to be a bottom hit."

Not really.

Maybe.

Sometimes.

-

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 19:03 | 1245596 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Please stop bouncing.. I feel like my PM's just did a Peter Pan off the 5th story floor and that's not helping.

 

The Bad Guy.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:40 | 1245088 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Not bottom, but support.

What hedge fund or investor would ever support this mega attack?

The bigshits will have to support it themselves and we see the dislocation of paper verse physical of a greater concern.

If they continue and the physical is no where to be at paper prices, who the fuck is going to stop them? Seriously, no one has stop them yet.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:53 | 1245132 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Two markets - paper & physical.  Hold the physical if you can - it's value will persevere.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:34 | 1245477 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

AboutAverage, listen up and stop thinking you can jump in the tree shredder and get out alive.

What is going to take to tear the last nominal thought out of your head?

All you traders of paper anything are going to BF'd, spanked, spit upon, shanked, screwed, and NO ORGASM FOR YOU! Stop. Fiat is about to pop and you're dancing around on the streets of electron contracts naked. 

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244949 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Deer is a leading provider of "DEER" branded consumer products to Chinese consumers and a leading vertically integrated manufacturer of small home and kitchen appliances for global customers. DEER's product lines include series of small household and kitchen appliances as well as personal care products designed to make modern lifestyles easier and healthier. With a long list of brand name global clientele and a rapidly expanding distribution footprint in China's domestic market, Deer's extensive China domestic market distribution channels are a direct access to China's wealthier and expanding consumer markets.

http://www.deerinc.com/

 

The Company believes its common stock has been manipulated in collusion among "naked" short sellers, which may include U.S. and off-shore based hedge funds/individuals that distribute false and fabricated information concerning the Company via various websites and blogs, including through SeekingAlpha.com, a website owned by Seeking Alpha Ltd., an Israeli company.

In what appears to be a part of this attempted manipulation, a purported class action complaint was filed against the Company by The Rosen Law Firm. This complaint is expressly based upon the false and defamatory reports concerning the Company that were authored by a fictitious character - "Alfred Little" and published by Seeking Alpha Ltd. even though Seeking Alpha Ltd. had deleted certain false reports prior to the filing of the complaint. Litigation counsel for DEER has notified The Rosen Law Firm that the complaint contains numerous false and inaccurate allegations and the Company will seek sanctions against the plaintiff and The Rosen Law Firm if the complaint is not withdrawn in its entirety.

During the months of March and April 2011, the Company believes that an attempted market manipulation scheme by illegal short sellers acting in collusion caused DEER's share price to plunge from more than $11 per share on March 21 to as low as $6.12 on April 4 on heavy daily volume, causing a temporary loss of approximately $165 million in market capitalization for DEER's shareholders.

 

http://www.deerinc.com/web/new20110502.asp

 

tldr;

 

Chinese Kitchen Tools

Empty with fallout coming

Mel Gibson blames Jews

 

 


Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:22 | 1244951 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Reality=Deflation

Jobs None, Housing in freefall, real wages are negative, why is deflation such a mystery?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:31 | 1245027 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

WRONG.  Only Def possibility is Default.  And that ain't gonna happen...

Reality:

Jobs None = More Stimulus Needed

Housing in Freefal = Start the Presses, Ben

Real Wages Negative = Fiat 4ever

All of which = INFLATION

 

This temper tantrum is setting the stage for QE3. 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:51 | 1245121 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Their only option is to print, the dollar will continue to weaken, making PM's a solid hold. I feel sorry for those who bought in the high 40's but hold and it will be back there no doubt soon.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 18:41 | 1245494 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Sheep Dawg, do you really care what the price of paper silver is?

I didn't think so! Your paws are firmly on the ground.

Myself? Not a second of slumber lost. Not 1! 

Wolves all around the flock, not much 1 sheepdog can do but protect itself and perhaps nip a a lamb or two back into the fold.

 

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:49 | 1245109 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Interesting that all the deflationistas are coming out of the woodwork here at ZH today when the mere mention of the D word even a week ago would get you junked 30x within minutes. Deflation in what you own (specifically your home) and what you want but don't need and inflation in things you need to survive like food, oil, gas. Wages will remain flat to dropping just like they have for the past decade. Stagflation is where we go, it's where we've been and it will only get worse.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:19 | 1244954 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

that deer pic was stolen from roman

 

eastern bloc cds traderz

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:20 | 1244961 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Did the $14.3T debt go down today?

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:28 | 1244962 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Love it! Next stop that trend line that runs just below 32.00. 34.34 support seems to be holding s/t, and xau looks like it's catching a slight bid from (1462.65) Put in a nice hourly candle.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:23 | 1244963 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Hey Texas Gunslinger..go fuck yourself!

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:21 | 1244966 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

Glad to see oil down. Sure will be nice to see >$3 gas again....

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:40 | 1245086 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Don't run out and buy a 550 horspower Benz just yet.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 16:22 | 1244975 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 This happens almost every year buy commodities in July-Aug. Look at the yearly charts .

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