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This Is What A Perfectly Inefficient Market Looks Like - $9 Billion ESH0 Gobbled Up In Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No better way to spike the market with no ETF flows than to gun ES volume. And we mean VOLUME. And the supreme irony: Goldman trader commentary -

"This rally seems futures driven. Over $9BN of  ESH0 exposure has traded in the market place over the last 10 minutes. We have  zero ETF flow on the move higher...just more of what we've seen over the past 2  weeks"

Yes Goldman, we agree. And you know better than most.

 

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Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:45 | 245393 andrew123
andrew123's picture

Now that GS and JPM are out of the dog house with Obama, it would not look good to have the market tank while he is spending the day talking about healthcare.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:45 | 245396 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Yes, & there's only one "trader" with deep pockets in size to move the market; PPT.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:02 | 245444 35Pete
35Pete's picture

That's conspiracy stuff! /sarcasm

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:14 | 245852 Rainman
Rainman's picture

On snow days, it takes the Pump Boyz a lot of time to hitch up the dog sleds. They got to the office too late to get it green. They'll do better tomorrow.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:36 | 245879 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

GoldmanScum never passes up an opportunity to take some loot from the taxpayer. This Senator wants Lloyd to explain why Goldman is price gouging its underwriting fees for Build America Bonds. Well, Senator they simply can't help themselves.

http://grassley.senate.gov/news/Article.cfm?customel_dataPageID_1502=25411

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:53 | 245412 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Nobody invests their OWN money in this PPT owned casino anymore.

How come these government paid bureucrats dont get it ?

Real money & real investors shun rigged markets like the pest !

With their market rigging they achieve just the oposite, they kill what was left before ! Maybe that is the masterplan, I dont know.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:42 | 245690 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

If you don't know, then don't post your stupid ass comments.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:14 | 245853 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

ETF loser - tell us what you know.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:49 | 245797 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

but you short it everyday right?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:53 | 245416 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hi,

Thanks for the excellent blog...it's an unvaluable ressource.

I'd just like to know, which platform-terminal do you use to have these charts ?

Thank you very much !

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:49 | 245516 assembler
assembler's picture

Those are bloomberg charts. From expensive bloomberg terminals.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:43 | 245693 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Bloomberg Terminals = A Waste of Money

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:21 | 245757 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Do not think you are a trader at all, without a bbg terminal, you just kill yourselves trading in the market.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:46 | 245991 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Keep paying bloomberg, you deserve them.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:56 | 245531 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Seriously?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:54 | 245418 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Once the 7-year treasury auction was done it was time to pump some helium back into the equity markets.  The rally will resume until the next debt auction.  

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:56 | 245424 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:56 | 245426 Racer
Racer's picture

Yes pretty classic, drop the futures overnight and push them down just before and then as soon as out of the way, back to the pump and dump again

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:45 | 245791 shargash
shargash's picture

Next week looks light for auctions, so I guess we can expect a ramp up on light volume all week, at least until the employment situation report on Friday.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:56 | 245425 Not A Pundit
Not A Pundit's picture

Posted this in another subject - the SPY volume tip-off was a big help in seeing the kickoff rise today.  Thank You ZH!!!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:59 | 245431 deadhead
deadhead's picture

well, i guess the saying is a managed market for a managed economy.

just another reason the USA is heading for the shitter.

so, Ben, are you just going to try to flatline the spx for "an extended period"?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:01 | 245437 Racer
Racer's picture

"The rally seems futures driven"

In other words based on nothing else but hot air from computers

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:14 | 245745 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Isn't this what drove oil to $140? Then oil crashed to the low $30's. Can we expect the same flush in the equity markets?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:02 | 245443 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

C is for cookie, and the market is the MONSTER!  The Market Monster!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:03 | 245445 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Looks like the FED is trying to get rid of Traders.  Moves in the Market do not make any sence or follow any pattern.  Except to pump the market at random.

The non existent volume is also strange.  This is anything but a normal market.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:08 | 245590 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Are you sure?

You say there's no pattern.  Is it true that there is no pattern, or is there simply no pattern that you can see?

Because you cannot see it and it appears random, do not assume that it truly is random.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:23 | 245948 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hey Link, I think you're the guy Taleb was talking about in both of his books. The pattern is always clear in hindsight. You're right. It's real, Dude. Why don't you ask Julia Mancuso about Black Swans. If you don't know what I'm talking about, I feel for you. It's a comin, Dude.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:50 | 246110 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

No, I don't think YOU know what I'm talking about, moron.

Get off your damned high horse.

What I'm saying is that the patterns that do exist are not perceptible to the human eye.

There are patterns, but you need software to see them.

I am not going to listen to anyone tell me "there are no patterns" and "it's all chaos" when my own models have found a lot of patterns and tell me very clearly otherwise.

That's why quants have taken over from human traders.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:04 | 246027 Hansel
Hansel's picture

The pattern you see is just your perception.  Life is chaotic.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 22:00 | 246126 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

No, it isn't.

Try learning some math, technical indicators, decision theory, Bayesian theory, and classification algorithms.

Then try building every possible forecasting algorithm and prove to me that there are NO possible algorithms that give a risk-reward ratio better than random.

I don't think you can do that.

For one thing, you can't test all possible algorithms.

For another thing, there are some that do work with relatively high probability.

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 11:20 | 246604 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What about quantum mechanics and the uncertainty principle. Do your charts incorporate those?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:47 | 245705 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

And your post is evidence that there is a long line of suckers to be taken advantage of with people like yourself who are unable to make sense of what is actually going on.  Thank you for your participation in the markets.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:50 | 245802 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look at some 100 year or longer charts. THIS IS HOW the market usually works.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:04 | 245447 Overpowered By Funk
Overpowered By Funk's picture

The future will need a rally.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:31 | 245472 economessed
economessed's picture

/|\

 |

 |  I love that comment!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 22:18 | 246147 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Subaru!!! oh wrong rally.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:30 | 245452 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

I just have to laugh at the term "futures" market.  It's happening NOW!  The future is NOW!
Of course, we all know THERE IS NO FUTURE! 

Anyone else notice the MASSIVE open interest on the December SPY 50 PUTS?  That's 60 points lower than we are now!


THERE IS THE FUTURE!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:32 | 245474 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If there is no future, then there is no hope either....

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:36 | 245479 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Are you there yet?

 

Are you ready to finally pull out all your funds from banks and Wall Street?

 

Sell off all stocks/trades?

 

Perhaps even go on a labor strike with your co-workers and picket your State government?

 

Or are you just sitting there like a good sheeple?

 

"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale. " -- Thomas Jefferson wrote on May 1816

 

**********************

NATIONAL STRIKE
APRIL 15 to APRIL 18TH
TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW
POST THIS ON EVERY DISCUSSION BOARD
www.taxfree15.com

**********************

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:42 | 245498 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Right, that'll work.  Those of us with jobs will just "walk out" and lose our jobs because of the government.  I'm sure that'll go over just peachy.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:48 | 245512 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Said like a true patriot.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:49 | 245517 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Lol, it's working for the Greeks. Not!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:25 | 245761 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Ivanovich

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776.

 

Or as Barack Hussein Obama says, "Chains you can bereave in."

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:12 | 245932 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Spoken like a true and dedicated Debt Slave

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:01 | 245555 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Done
Done
Doing
No

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:06 | 245579 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

why wait till April 15 ?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:07 | 245836 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"The spirit of the times may alter, will alter. Our rulers will become corrupt, our people careless. A single zealot may commence persecutor, and better men be his victims. It can never be too often repeated that the time for fixing every essential right on a legal basis is while our rulers are honest and ourselves united. From the conclusion of [their] war [for independence, a nation begins] going down hill. It will not then be necessary to resort every moment to the people for support. They will be forgotten, therefore, and their rights disregarded. They will forget themselves but in the sole faculty of making money, and will never think of uniting to effect a due respect for their rights. The shackles, therefore, which shall not be knocked off at the conclusion of [that] war will remain on [them] long, will be made heavier and heavier, till [their] rights shall revive or expire in a convulsion." --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia Q.XVII, 1782. (*) ME 2:225

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:09 | 245840 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"The spirit of the times may alter, will alter. Our rulers will become corrupt, our people careless. A single zealot may commence persecutor, and better men be his victims. It can never be too often repeated that the time for fixing every essential right on a legal basis is while our rulers are honest and ourselves united. From the conclusion of [their] war [for independence, a nation begins] going down hill. It will not then be necessary to resort every moment to the people for support. They will be forgotten, therefore, and their rights disregarded. They will forget themselves but in the sole faculty of making money, and will never think of uniting to effect a due respect for their rights. The shackles, therefore, which shall not be knocked off at the conclusion of [that] war will remain on [them] long, will be made heavier and heavier, till [their] rights shall revive or expire in a convulsion." --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia Q.XVII, 1782. (*) ME 2:225

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:38 | 245484 crosey
crosey's picture

Made some quick beer money today.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:41 | 245489 dbulkley
dbulkley's picture

Um, can someone explain this to me?  My corporate finance class was a few years too long ago.... TIA

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:41 | 245493 crosey
crosey's picture

What, in particular?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:42 | 245494 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Look ma, no hands!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:46 | 245500 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Market Truth

I'm in and any other info you have about this kind of demonstration I would appreciate. I'm surprised more people don't want to do anything but complain.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:50 | 245518 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Okay, I'm a jackass n00b. Honest (stupid) question: What's PPT? Thanks.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:21 | 245946 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Plunge protection team, led by Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:49 | 245995 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

PPT = Penis Peeler Team

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:50 | 245519 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yesterday you swear that SPY is moving the market with some "algo" Today no SPY but ES. Tomorrow will be the EURJPY. Seems like every time the market is up, it is collusion and algos, and every time it is down it's a real market (except for the "shanking" around option expiration, then it's algos again)

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:51 | 245520 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Sorry for the dumb question: what's PPT?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:50 | 245996 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

PPT = Plunge Protection Team

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:50 | 245997 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

PPT = Penis Peeler Team

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:57 | 245533 taraxias
taraxias's picture

 

There is no market. Uncle Ben owns it all, the equities market, the bond market, the commodities market, the currencies market, the derivatives market, hell he probably even owns your local flee market.

 

The more you are following fundamentals and expect the "big fall", the more you are being fleeced. Stop giving your money to this rigged casino. Cash out and give Uncle Ben the finger. 

Ben, go fuck yourself.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:08 | 245589 Zexe
Zexe's picture

good point. this is no market to trade. we should not put any money into this rigged casino.  in fact, i think this is what bernanke is after. let them have their market and do what they want with it. they won't let it fall. ever. they ll print money and own everything and the $ will be worthless toilet paper. 

 

fucking idiots.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:17 | 245618 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Taraxias, I agree.  I would imagine that the FED owns over 50% of the Market.  That is probably why they cannot afford for it to drop.

I also wonder if they are Trading the Market for Profit, to sure up their Balance sheet.  They are watching how much Goldman is making in the Market and do not want to get left behind.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:59 | 245543 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is why I trade with a robot. Robot does not care about what market does...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:59 | 245545 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dammit ZH, I'm trying hard to live peacefully in the fantasy world that the mainstream media has painted for me, and every damn day you come in and smear the paint, exposing just enough to show how much effort it takes to keep the kool-aid flowing. Ahhh, look at all the pretty pretty colors...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:59 | 245548 Oso
Oso's picture

This is beyond fucked.  Every single time.  WHERE THE FUCK IS THE WORTHLESS SEC?  Oh right, banning selling on everything.  Fucking idiots.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:59 | 245549 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Amazing that our bankrupt government has money to speculate in S&P futures. Yet, if you're bankrupt does it matter if you put more money on the fire........I mean dead is dead, no? Benny's all in and someone is going to call his bluff.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:03 | 245564 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I've put my money into a rational market, unfortunately any kind of real investment badly shapes the market.

Driver 1 @ 3.9 for 25.6%
Driver 2 @ 4.9 for 20.4%
Driver 3 @ 6.6 for 15.15%
Driver 4 @ 8.2 for 12.20%
Driver 5 @ 12.5 for 8%
Driver 6 @ 13 for 7.79%

12.18% return tax free over 6 months.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:03 | 245565 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I can't wait for robo's "artful interpretation". This has been quite a midday bounce. Need more than .... Nevermind.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:04 | 245572 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Wow, narrow the gap close on huge volume.  There's a juicy rumour out there...I can smell it..but I just don't know what it is...(obviously the big boys @ the trading desks know...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:05 | 245574 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The fed owns it all. They can move markets like God parting the Red Sea with the breath from his nostrils. WTF is so hard to figure out? They run the show.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:05 | 245576 Gimp
Gimp's picture

The PONZI masters don't want you to throw in the towel so they are going to keep the market up even if unemployement goes to 90%!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:09 | 245594 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If stock trading is the only place big banks can make money, why would they leave this market hanging in mid-air ?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:10 | 245599 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why the hell was LEHMQ (Formerly known as Lehman Brothers) up 97% today?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:12 | 245606 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

oh!!!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:15 | 245614 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Today just may have been the last straw for me in the US equity market.  

 

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:31 | 245659 Zexe
Zexe's picture

THIS IS NO MARKET. this is their market. they buy they sell they manipulate it and finally they take our money. I am out of this market. But make no mistake, they will pay for this. The billing day will come. Why? They killed price discovery. No investor will trust this market and no investor will want to commit capital for something that is rigged pricing wise.

Extend and pretend is the name of the game. They will have  DOW 20,000 and employment 25%. Thats what stupid Ben is onto.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:57 | 245716 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

All of you assholes complaining are just bitter because the market got the best of you.  Face it, you were not smart enough to overcome it.  So go walk away with your tail between your legs and cry to someone else who will listen... and come back again tomorrow so I can take more of your money away!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:20 | 245756 Zexe
Zexe's picture

yeah right, you took our money away! LOL  go play with your dick kid.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:23 | 245760 Oso
Oso's picture

you dont get it, huh?  A market is not supposed to be 100% day-traders.  This country functioned because businesses could raise capital for productive ideas BECAUSE there were people who believed value existed and were willing to fund that.

 

Right now, as an INVESTOR (not a trader), this is 100% impossible.

 

So yes, you may have won todays battle, but you and your children, and your childrens' children are F'd because of it.

 

So, go count your nickles, you fucking idiot.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:51 | 245805 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Very well said Oso and historically accurate.

 

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 03:18 | 246376 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

 "A market is not supposed to be 100% day-traders.  This country functioned because businesses could raise capital for productive ideas BECAUSE there were people who believed value existed and were willing to fund that."

Amen to that...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:23 | 245636 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think they are trying to condition Buyers and Shorts.

If it opens down Shorts scramble to cover because of the slooooow daily pump and Buyers buy the dip because of the sloooow daily pump.

Traders are being conditioned from the same daily action.

Interesting that today Oil was down almost $2.00 yet Oil sensitive stocks and Gold were up.  Like Fcx, Aa, X, Pot, Pbt etc.  Appears like it is to create Short Covering.

Daily pump, Daily short covering.  But, soon no shorts and huge dump with no pump.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:08 | 245735 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

this is exactly what i think is going on.
put people in a pattern and suddenly stop doing it at all.

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 02:54 | 246369 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Market is dropped to clear sell orders under the market. Then, market is rallied to sell/distribute stock picked up at lows at higher prices (get it, buy low, sell high). Cycle repeats until all sell orders under the market are cleared. Then market drops through former "support" area like a hot knife through butter. In this case, I expect the Dow Ind will eventually gap down through the 10,000/10,200 level. That is what you are observing. I suspect there are a lot of sell short orders under the market from Prechter followers trying to get a jump on the next down leg. These guys are getting killed, particularly if they're shorting the market using put options.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:24 | 245639 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What an ability to destroy a country!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 17:37 | 245683 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

Deadhead - I am with you. This is like playing Russian Roulette. This is not a market anymore -- it is insanity. But on to another part of this -- is anyone beside me sick and fucking tired of seeing my Tax Money being used by a non governmental agency (FED) to manipulate this market? I am serious, I have been a trader for over 20 years, and I can remember back when I first started if anyone said the FED was buying futures contracts or anything other than currency intervention -- you were laughed at! It was actually believed by most to be illegal for the FED to actually be involved in the STOCK MARKET. Now - it is accepted as common practice. How many here have called their Senators or Congressman to complain? How many have written letters? I am serious when I say this - it is time to act!!! This is nothing more than the FED being a co conspirator to rob the working people of this country and transfer wealth to their banking buddies (ie -- their owners) -- with OUR MONEY!!! Enough is E Fucking Nuff!! This is as good a place as any to get a movement started - since most people have no clue what is going on. I encourage anyone - EVERYONE - to submit idea as to how to combat this -- one way or another.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:02 | 245722 Zexe
Zexe's picture

the only way to do this is to hit the streets like they do in greece and make your point. sad thing is americans are, by and large, brainwashed by now.

 

in europe, where I live, I think it's going to be much uglier.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:34 | 245774 merehuman
merehuman's picture

First good answer is to get out.

When the government breaks the law,

the new law takes effect and it is

Every man for himself

And the future is no longer as distant or as certain.

Let them play in their sandbox by themselves

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:41 | 245785 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

"is anyone beside me sick and fucking tired of seeing my Tax Money being used by a non governmental agency (FED) to manipulate this market?"

-I second that emotion, gunsmoke! And for the record, I have repeatedly written my Congresswoman, Senators, Senate banking committee members and the NY State Attorney General. 

And guess what? They pretty much did act on every issue I wrote them about: Flash Trading was investigated by Chuck Schumer, the short-sale ban was reversed (for a while), AIG bonuses and Merrill Lynch-BofA bonuses were investigated (by Andrew Cuomo) and even Senator Shelby grudgingly looked into banking reform. The only a-hole in the lot was Barney Frank (a Wall Street shill masquerading as a guardian of taxpayer money). I've called in before committee and floor votes. I opposed the PPIP and the TARP. 

I think all serious ZH_heads should find out how to email, write AND call their reps and senators, and who the ranking influential members of relevant committees are and contact them. It does have an impact.

One very under recognized taxpayer giveaway that's very relevant is the trillion dollar gift to corporate America that's taken place via rampant, huge secondary equity offerings in the market since March 09. I believe that reason the Fed has remained on the bid has been to provide a transfer of liquidity to all the banks and corporations that needed to raise money but couldn't in the credit markets. And that's how they essentially prevented deleveraging from occurring and gave another big taxpayer gift to Wall Street and the banking system. All these companies were in time-sensitive trouble in March 09: they needed to roll debt in a hurry but had no source of funds in the commercial paper market or bond market. Hence the Fed's aggressive policy of maintaining the bid. As always, follow the money! The unwanted side effects, however, may sink the economy in a nightmare scenario of deflating assets (like real estate and incomes) in the midst of induced inflation (of every commodity, energy and most cost of living and raw material inputs). Add in the restricted access to credit and you have a perfect storm, a triple whammy for the US economy that sets us up for an even worse fall than if they had remained hands off. 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:55 | 245810 deadhead
deadhead's picture

is anyone beside me sick and fucking tired of seeing my Tax Money being used by a non governmental agency (FED) to manipulate this market?

Yes.....this is a massive problem and will ultimately cause great harm to the American economy.  

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 03:58 | 246392 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

"Turn on, tune in, drop out"...

I don't want to open the same (g)old can of worms here, but like I say to the gold bugs (and I'm not trying to be offensive here, we all have our views ;-), why continue to fight the house. If your long PM's, the best thing you can do is to remove your cash from the market casino and convince two or more people to do the same, who will convince two more and so on... Financial anarchy, work the system to your advantage, no matter how small a player you may be... Now I'm under no illusion that this will happen because of the herd mentality, as usual people will act only when the rush for the exits is clear but often one minute too late... This primative survival instinct waterhole mentality is what the fed and its manipulators consciously prey upon, everyone here knows the crocodiles are lurking somewhere beneath the dirty water, but stuff it, if he's drinking well I'm gonna too ... Everyone (especially those long pm's) must act on his or her morals, even if that means losing a pitiful return...  If and where possible, invest abroad for the long haul, sound demographics will be most important along with natural resourses and given the near futures energy prices, location, location, location... My 1.37 cents...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:03 | 245725 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

Hey ETF Trader - you are so wise - why don't you explain to all of us how you are able to make sense of this market rather that name calling? I can see you now -- probably a 20 something who sits and trades your 100 share blocks of some ETF scalping quarters of a point. Some stupid fuck who is going to get your ass handed to you the day the FED stops coming to the rescue - like all the other whiz kids in 2000

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:17 | 245749 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What a "coincidence", the NY FED bought $11 billion of agency paper today - wonder were it went...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:17 | 245751 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Drinks Anyone?
Whenever the comment on ZH starts getting excited about THE BIG ONE its time to BUY BUY BUY.
Heh and everytime they're soo sure THIS IS IT
Thats what ya get for listening to beautys like Greasy Geekster,Chumpy Wanker, Cheesey Bugger, Trenda Moe Lies And a newby, Mista Mastabtor- ouch- good luk

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:28 | 245766 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Best way to play this market is with pairing your trades in same group. Long BIDU short GOOG

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:31 | 245770 Arm
Arm's picture

Not ironic at all.  There is probably only one or two guys gunning the SPY at GS and JPM.  The rest of the trading team probably knows as much as we do.  (if all of GS knew, their prop traders would try to front-run their  own PPT trading team - not good)

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:36 | 245776 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I personally loved it. We were in a minor daily down trend since last week, that was inside a larger multiweek uptrend.

That means keep some long high income and short the pops. Monday was a pop and yesterday was a pop. Soon we will be in a synchroed daily and weekly uptrend wich meens buy the dips. Blue Square buy dips, Red Circle Short pops.

Use atm next exp puts against leveraged etfs and you can clock 20 to 50 % a day in the trend. Opposite trend days you buy your puts

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:37 | 245971 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Anony 245776

Muti week uptrend? You must be joking or forecasting for the fed?

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:38 | 245780 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

ETF Trader - I have traded this market for over 20 years, you don't do that without learning something about the market -- in other words - you fail and go find another vocation. I probably make or lose more money in a couple of hours every day than you make in a years time, so don't talk about taking my money - you couldn't carry it all you stupid fuck. What you don't seem to get is it is not ALL about making money! Some people actually care about our markets, their integrity and probalby most of all their sustainability. So while you hack away at your 100 share ETF position rubbing your nickels, some of us are actually thinking about our future and our childrens future and whatr kind of country they will be left with when the FED and others bankrupt us. Enjoy your trading career -- I have a DEFINATE idea it will be a short lived one. 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 18:58 | 245815 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Some people actually care about our markets, their integrity and probalby most of all their sustainability

Very well said.  I believe this statement aligns with part of the core mission of ZH and its community.  I would also add that this is by no means a "stock traders" site, but some seem to interpret otherwise.

 

Good comments Gunsmoke.....

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:02 | 245822 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I concur, you, ETF-Trader are one of the Harvard grad, primped at McKinsey and Co, now at Goldman Sachs or JPM who are pumping this market for Ben Shalom Shellacking Bernanke

To pump the market, you must use an ETF like SPY. (hence the handle ETF-Trader) Holy Shitamolly, I just self incriminated you without you even speaking.

In Psychology, if you know something that somebody else doesn't know, deny deny deny! When they start to question you, belittle their questioning with all your spit and arrogant filth until they have nothing left to question. Hopefully they will stop questioning you. You just gave yourself away!
You work for the PPT and you know it you Fu*ker!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:04 | 245828 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I concur, you, ETF-Trader are one of the Harvard grad, primped at McKinsey and Co, now at Goldman Sachs or JPM who are pumping this market for Ben Shalom Shellacking Bernanke

To pump the market, you must use an ETF like SPY. (hence the handle ETF-Trader) Holy Shitamolly, I just self incriminated you without you even speaking.

In Psychology, if you know something that somebody else doesn't know, deny deny deny! When they start to question you, belittle their questioning with all your spit and arrogant filth until they have nothing left to question. Hopefully they will stop questioning you. You just gave yourself away!
You work for the PPT and you know it you Fu*ker!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:46 | 246098 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

I love the "spit and arrogant filth" line.  Thanks for the compliment.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:05 | 245830 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"The spirit of the times may alter, will alter. Our rulers will become corrupt, our people careless. A single zealot may commence persecutor, and better men be his victims. It can never be too often repeated that the time for fixing every essential right on a legal basis is while our rulers are honest and ourselves united. From the conclusion of [their] war [for independence, a nation begins] going down hill. It will not then be necessary to resort every moment to the people for support. They will be forgotten, therefore, and their rights disregarded. They will forget themselves but in the sole faculty of making money, and will never think of uniting to effect a due respect for their rights. The shackles, therefore, which shall not be knocked off at the conclusion of [that] war will remain on [them] long, will be made heavier and heavier, till [their] rights shall revive or expire in a convulsion." --Thomas Jefferson: Notes on Virginia Q.XVII, 1782. (*) ME 2:225

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:06 | 245833 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

LOL ETF -- Sound Like Your Father -- So I Was right -- You are A Little Shit Ass!! ROFLOL

Just as I suspected - a little shit ass whiz kid -- now I KNOW you will not be around long!! Go Now -- MOMMY probably has your peanut butter and jelly sandwich waiting for you -- with cookies and milk. Good Boy

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:24 | 245863 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

ETF -- Just for the record -- I did not lose today - but - even if I had, and I do at times - I still try to be respectful. On my WORST FUCKING DAY - I would not be so bummed out that I would come to a forum such as this and make a TOTAL FUCKING ASS of myself like you have today. I don't care if I made 300 Thousand Dollars today, I would not come on a forum such as this and start calling people a bunch of losers and whiny assholes. Clearly you are too fucking stupid to understand - it is not only about making money. Win or Lose in any given day - it makes no difference when it comes to the LONG TERM effects of what is going on in this market recently. But arguing with someone like you who is clearly an immature idiot is a waste of time. It is not hypocritical to be a trader, investor, speculator - whatever - and have real concerns about the integrity of this market. Enjoy your daily profit, maybe you can make enough of them to enroll in some sort of class that teaches class -- you definately need it.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:23 | 245947 merehuman
merehuman's picture

I totally concur with gunsmoke.

Like to add  Hey  failpaper trader ETFGUY , since you quit trading in oct 09 means YOU MISSED OUT on the run up cause you didnt see it or you blew the money and now you are pissed and taking it out on us. Go get laid! it will help your disposition

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:46 | 245897 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Been a lot of talk about no volume for quite some time. Just wondering if someone can help me out and desribe aproximately how large of a decrease is occurring? Also in what time context, YOY, last five years. Just trying to grasp how much activity disapeared. Thanks guys.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:48 | 245899 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

LOL - You are a bigger loser than I gave you credit for.

"Trading 10 years and counting, but not since October 2009" REALLY -- Then how did you make so much money today, and how are you going to take all of our money tomorrow - by sucking our collective dicks?

"I beleive that your statement is alligned with the core mission of ZH and others like myself that think you are completeley full of shit." FUNNY - I haven't heard too many people stepping up to defend you so "Others Like Yourself" must be off doing something else -- MAYBE YOU SHOULD JOIN THEM AND GET THE FUCK OUT OF HERE!

 

So - enough of this chit chat -- I tire of bantering with idiots - you are OBVIOUSLY a fucking loser so SERIOUSLY, why don't you find another forum to frequent and allow people who are actually interested in the market have this one.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 19:52 | 245909 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

ETF

"First you complain about people taking your money, hence a self admission that you lost today.  Then you declare that I was not one of them who took your money.  Then you state that no one took your money and that in fact you won today. "

I see you need a reading course as well as an culture course.

"ETF -- Just for the record -- I did not lose today - but - even if I had, and I do at times - I still try to be respectful."

Show me where I said I won or lost money today - Show me you fucking idiot

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:13 | 245933 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Read the comments with much amusement. Just to say, ETF-trader, you really are a complete ass. I doubt whether you have any idea about making money or trading, and I'm fairly sure you're just another desperate little gambler playing at big man. It's a real shame that you feel the need to come to a board and abuse people without saying a single constructive thing about the real issues being discussed. If you want to troll forums, I'm sure there are some much more appropriate ones for a pathetic loser such as yourself. Perhaps a world of warcraft forum where you can create an avatar that's all big and butch like you wish you were. I'm fairly sure the only reason you have for coming here and abusing people is to make yourself feel better about your own pathetic life! Ciao fuckwit!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:31 | 245960 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Thank you ETF IDIOT

You did make me laugh. But really i guess your age at 16.

Your the kid that plays with matches in the barn.

Go research KARMA. Life has its way with all of us, but unlike you we dont do it intentionally.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:21 | 245945 abalone
abalone's picture

I don't know which is more de-stabilised, todays market or this thread...I'm still holding my shorts up until Burnyankee yanks them off personally

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:40 | 245976 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

this thread

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:26 | 245954 gunsmoke011
gunsmoke011's picture

ETF - what is REALLY funny is that you have to register and log in before you can post -- it usually take a day or two to get appoved - so I am once agian calling you on that BS that you just picked some "Obscure Forum"! But my first clue was that you said you  won a bet with "Buddies" - I find it really difficult to believe an asshole such as yourself would really have buddies. But in all seriousness - what a pathetic fucking life you must lead if this is how you want to spend you time -- by going to some forum and pissing people off -- talk about the Ultimate Loser!! But hey - congrats on winning your bet - now maybe you and your "Buddies" can go drink some of Mommys Kool Aid and sneak back up to your room and corn hole each other.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:41 | 245980 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Now this is funny

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 20:48 | 245993 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

MONEY!.. bada bing.. where are all the pessimists? This thing is real

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:12 | 246040 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Some people have accused me of not posting anything constructive...and being a complete asshole...THEY ARE CORRECT.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:25 | 246060 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Here is something all of you can take to the bank.  Master all 4 of these metrics in your trading, and you shall achieve any and all success you ever dreamed and be as bored as me:

  • Win%
  • Size of Avg Win
  • Stnd Dev Wins
  • Size of Avg Loss
  • Stnd Dev Losses
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:50 | 246109 Overpowered By Funk
Overpowered By Funk's picture

ETF, you have indeed schooled us all. I piss my pants in your presence. 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 22:19 | 246149 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

yeah i pissed my pants too

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:55 | 246120 Altan311
Altan311's picture

I took the time to read and junk every single post you made. You are welcome

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 22:20 | 246150 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

too bad you were not here earlier, the good ones already got deleted

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 21:41 | 246093 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Yesterday at 2100 hours this signaled the short initiation in ES:

Input: Length(22), Threshhold(3), Daysunder(5);

Variable:  Temperature(0), Avgtemp(0), Thickness(1), Colour(darkblue);

Value1 = AbsValue(high-high[1]);

Value2 = AbsValue(low[1] - low);

Temperature = Maxlist(Value1, Value2);

Avgtemp = Xaverage(Temperature, Length);

Thickness=1;

If temperature < avgtemp then colour=darkblue else

If temperature >= avgtemp and temperature < avgtemp*threshhold then
colour=cyan   else

If temperature > avgtemp*threshhold then Begin Colour= red; Thickness=3;
End;

Value4=0;

For Value3 = 0 to Daysunder-1 Begin

If Temperature[Value3]<AvgTemp[Value3] then Value4=Value4+1;

End;

If Value4 >= DaysUnder then Begin colour= yellow; Thickness=1; End;

If Value4[1] >= DaysUnder and temperature >= avgtemp and temperature <
avgtemp*threshhold then Begin colour= white; Thickness=3; End;

plot1(temperature, "mkt temp", Colour,  default,  Thickness);

plot2(avgtemp, "avg temp",blue);

plot3(avgtemp*threshhold, "avg temp",red);

If Value4[1] >= DaysUnder and temperature >= avgtemp and temperature <
avgtemp*threshhold then alert("White Plot - Move Has Begun!");

Thickness=3; End;

 

At 11:05 and 12:10 today the long signaled was confirmed from the above.

Bloomberg will not tell you this.

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 02:30 | 246357 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Maybe Bloomberg will tell you this...?

Green's functions for linear differential operators involving the Laplacian may be readily put to use using the second of Green's identities.

To derive Green's theorem, begin with the divergence theorem (otherwise known as Gauss's theorem):

\int_V \nabla \cdot \hat A\ dV = \int_S \hat A \cdot d\hat\sigma.

Let \hat A = \phi\nabla\psi - \psi\nabla\phi and substitute into Gauss' law. Compute \nabla\cdot\hat A and apply the chain rule for the \nabla operator:

\nabla\cdot\hat A = \nabla\cdot(\phi\nabla\psi - \psi\nabla\phi) = (\nabla\phi)\cdot(\nabla\psi) + \phi\nabla^2\psi - (\nabla\phi)\cdot(\nabla\psi) - \psi\nabla^2\phi = \phi\nabla^2\psi - \psi\nabla^2\phi.

Plugging this into the divergence theorem produces Green's theorem:

\int_V (\phi\nabla^2\psi - \psi\nabla^2\phi) dV = \int_S (\phi\nabla\psi - \psi\nabla\phi)\cdot d\hat\sigma.

Suppose that the linear differential operator L is the Laplacian, \nabla^2, and that there is a Green's function G for the Laplacian. The defining property of the Green's function still holds:

L G(x,x') = \nabla^2 G(x,x') = \delta(x-x').

Let ? = G in Green's theorem. Then:

\int_V \left[ \phi(x') \delta(x - x') - G(x,x') \nabla^2\phi(x')\right]\ d^3x' = \int_S \left[\phi(x')\nabla' G(x,x') - G(x,x')\nabla'\phi(x')\right] \cdot d\hat\sigma'

Using this expression, it is possible to solve Laplace's equation \nabla^2\phi(x)=0 or Poisson's equation \nabla^2\phi(x)=-\rho(x), subject to either Neumann or Dirichlet boundary conditions. In other words, we can solve for ?(x) everywhere inside a volume where either (1) the value of ?(x) is specified on the bounding surface of the volume (Dirichlet boundary conditions), or (2) the normal derivative of ?(x) is specified on the bounding surface (Neumann boundary conditions).

Suppose the problem is to solve for ?(x) inside the region. Then the integral

\int\limits_V {\phi(x')\delta(x-x')\ d^3x'}

reduces to simply ?(x) due to the defining property of the Dirac delta function and we have:

\phi(x) = \int_V G(x,x') \rho(x')\ d^3x' + \int_S \left[\phi(x')\nabla' G(x,x') - G(x,x')\nabla'\phi(x')\right] \cdot d\hat\sigma'.

This form expresses the well-known property of harmonic functions that if the value or normal derivative is known on a bounding surface, then the value of the function inside the volume is known everywhere.

In electrostatics, ?(x) is interpreted as the electric potential, ?(x) as electric charge density, and the normal derivative \nabla\phi(x')\cdot d\hat\sigma' as the normal component of the electric field.

If the problem is to solve a Dirichlet boundary value problem, the Green's function should be chosen such that G(x,x') vanishes when either x or x' is on the bounding surface; conversely, if the problem is to solve a Neumann boundary value problem, the Green's function is chosen such that its normal derivative vanishes on the bounding surface. Thus only one of the two terms in the surface integral remains.

With no boundary conditions, the Green's function for the Laplacian (Green's function for the three-variable Laplace equation) is:

G(x,x') = \frac{1}{|x-x'|}.

Supposing that the bounding surface goes out to infinity, and plugging in this expression for the Green's function, this gives the familiar expression for electric potential in terms of electric charge density (in the CGS unit system) as

\phi(x) = \int_V \frac{\rho(x')}{|x-x'|} \ d^3x'.

Fu*k You!

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 13:50 | 246910 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Thanks for your copy/paste.  Any original thoughts shithead?

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 05:57 | 246418 Bear
Bear's picture

Wow ... what happened to all the ZH civility?

Fri, 02/26/2010 - 12:00 | 246689 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A friend of mine thinks he has something to share: Poop& dupe (kind of like pump& dump). You poo-poo an asset while you accumulate it, then sell it once reality re-emerges (thus the dupe).

Poop& dupe. It's alot of fun. You should try it.

Sat, 02/27/2010 - 23:12 | 248420 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

EOD priming the futures pump typically is countered by counter party arb that would prevent GS from painting the tape the last 10 min. But we are no longer in an efficient arb world, as the last few with the spec $ do not wish to play the game any longer as they have been instructed, from on high, to conserve and be conservative, and not to trade anything the on high don't understand ... simply, DO NOT SPECULATE, WE ARE STILL CDO BK, AND AS OUR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE EXPOSURE WILL SOON MAKE US ALL SHOP FOR USED ACCORDS & MOVE IN WITH MOM & DAD!

So GS has the mkt to itself, adding in about 50 large hedge fund traders, worldwide, and the comedic lame first grade alg shop MS, from whom they all zero sum game the gains & losses, on a hi-freq. sec. to sec. basis, all trying to see who has the largest pile by Christmas/Annual bonus time.

Fri, 04/16/2010 - 11:11 | 304045 Tom123456
Tom123456's picture

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