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What Volume?
Those hoping for some relative distribution in this rally will have to do what they always do on up days: wait until a down day. The chart below shows cumulative divergence from average volume. Ever since yesterday's late ramp on hopes for yet another European solution through today's so called debt ceiling resolution, when we have seen 30 points surge in the ES on no actual news, the volume has been well below average for two consecutive days in a row. Yes: the move is once again based on marginal churning courtesy of HFT vacuum tubes and the occasional day trader. Everyone else has already tapped out their margin account.
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Looks like markets don't need QE3 to stay aloft, correct?
Didn't zerohedge prove that QE1 and QE2 didn't go into stocks anyway, and instead went to European banks?
Who needs QE3 when youve got arbitrary pricing algo-bots?
On a long enough timeline, the balance on your online casino account (a.k.a TDAmeritrade, Etrade, Charles Swab, etc.) goes to zero..
now that you mention it, when things go tits up, what are my chances of any stocks {miners} i own or cash on the sidelines i may have, of getting 100% of my funds in my hand?
There will be new and increased 'security expenses' for gold miners, and there may be no liquidity for a while (i.e. markets in chaos?) but I am fairly confident that justice and the rule of law will prevail. Eventually.
But the market can stay illiquid/irrational (like today's massive bear mauling) longer than you can stay solvent. Remember that.
Just because the volume is infinitesimal doesn't mean it's non-existent.
Pricing algos need to be re-examined as to how they decide where there is demand.
Believe they generate there own "demand" thru daisy chain px churning...
Ken Jennings vs. Watson and I'm no Ken Jennings.
Stocks up big. On low volume. None of that volume has been from me for a long time.
Tyler is telling us not to trust this kind of action. LISTEN UP!
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Hey, what's going on re the the PMs? They took a 1% dive an hour or so ago. I'll drop by Turd's site and see what they have to say.
Banks sold PM's to buy SPY.
There's your volume problem.
So then who's going to buy SPY from the banks? None of this makes any sense, Im chalking it up to last acts of desperate men.
Turd said this is just another EE action. Started two minutes after Obama started in at 1:30.
I have only been to his newly re-designed site twice now. Highly recommended for people trading gold & silver. I see many people from ZH over there. High quality comments too.
Me? I just buy physical gold when I get money. Not a seller.
very nice sell in CMG at the bell
Up day today, maybe Down day tomorrow, who cares! Physicals it ISSS!
Secret QE?
Where did they find more money, under Bernanks ottoman cushion in the mens executive washroom?
Volume schmolume,robots don't need no stinking volume.
Im showing less than 1B for S&P any other confirmation?
I think this is a first if it is right.
Could be stoploss. ES-mini volume for the day session was pathetic at just 2.09 million. With such a huge net gain, the volume should have been close to 4-million.
rallying this hard makes no sense. QE 2 is over. Where is the capital coming from?
certainly not the average American who is totally broke.
Historic debt levels, default imminent and the market takes off to the moon.
I guess I still have a ton of learning to fully understand how this all work.
To me these daily antics just shows how desperate they are.
no kidding. Raising the debt limit should be insanely bullish for the PM complex.
Has to be desperation, no doubt
Ridiculous how the markets have already 'priced in' further few trillions in debt, yet are due to take off when the bill passes or whatever the hell? And PM's god a decent bump, but nothing to where they should be on the eve of monetary default looming. All ridiculous.
And just months ago Bernank was worried about getting 'confidence back in the markets'...I guess he's given up and just said hell with it no one will ever play again so may as well ramp the living hell out of everything.
You are right in thinking that a debt ceiling increase should be good for PMs. The trick is not to think about what you--a sane, rational actor--would do but what the group will do. How will the group respond to news of a debt ceiling? "Thank God. Armageddon avoided. Buy the rumor of debt ceiling increase, sell the news . . . ."
If there is a fault with this community, it's that we have too much conviction in a collapse and put too much trust in the idea of the logical outcome, which is collapse. All unsustainable systems fail at some time. The question is just that: At what time. Maybe as soon as 2013, maybe not until 2025.
Bulls see a catastrophe avoided. Think of how many financial catastrophe's have been avoided--how many times people have preached doom and gloom but the system has remained intact nonetheless. Look at a long, long, long term chart of the S&P . . . the sucker just keeps on going up in spite of all threats.
I agree TOTALLY that the system is screwed and has been since 1913, but somehow the country has always found a way to move forward without collapse. Why would this time be any different? Just playing devil's advocate . . . .
Agreed. Nobody really knows what's coming down the pike...or at least those who do aren't telling me. It's fun to play stocks in the meantime.
Who are "they"
Vacuum tubes and their programmers.
Thanks. Why do you think they are desperate?
If it weren't for the Russians/Eastern Europeans, NO ONE would be making vacuum tubes!
Don't ask questions Blythe. Just buy TZOO and have fun with it.
too expensive for me, plus it looks overpriced on a historic basis. Could be dead wrong though.
Perhaps the end of QE-2 was only an illusion. Maybe it never really ended but shifted to something other than monetizing debt. Perhaps some other form of money printing???
To put it simple: If many (human or not) are trading, it is harder to affect price oneself. If only a few are trading, those few can affect prices stronger. Why is activity so low? Because humans have left the casino.
As for QE..... in current "markets", QE may not be necessary to keep stocks levitating.... unfortunatelly however, the stockmarket has very little to do with the economy and government finances. It also has little to do with broke banks in need of another bailout.
QE will come not because of the "markets" (though, they may use it as a justification). It will come precisely because of everything EXCEPT of the stockmarket.
My brokerage house called today trolling for some trading action.
When I told the snappy young hopeful on the other end of the line that I wouldn't touch this market with his money and that I was parked in cash/CEF until further notice, he said, "yea, I know... I get that a lot. Seems like everyone is parked in cash right now and nobody wants into this market."
No shock to anyone reading this... Move along.
Step right up to McStinkies rigged casino, place ya bets on the loaded wheel....come on its FUN!
Pssst.... Did ya see the Dow 200 pointer today.? Must be all dem green shoots flyin around.
And did ya see the TSX go up today too,which is heavily weighted in oils and minerals,all while gold went down,and the USDollar went down...
Hmmm
Things that make ya go...Hhmmmmm..???
Plenty of volume in gold
In fairness, yesterday's selloff was on pretty dismal volume as well.
p.s. CVV, bitchez.
QED
FSG bitchez
you can't eat <gold divided by the S&P 500>!
FSG bitchez
DGP is more liquid
Correct. I was surprised at the lack of selling on a DOWN day. As far as the ES goes, yesterday's volume was lower than today's; however, both sucked.
Same market action as at DOW 14,000, we'd see days of 200 down, then 200 up the next....nothing tells me this at all not disaster looming ahead.
Oh yea, and its all due to 'lack of news'...yea.
You are right ... it has the same 'feel' as March 2000 and December 2007. Up down basically to 'scrub' the market of day traders money. Wait for the big intraday reversal, then short with hands and feet.
VWM and ISRG skying after earnings.
Breathlessly awaiting AAPL
Yes but given back, and much more, by RVBD.
Surging like a car running out of gas...
My margin account isn't even close to tapped out. Hell I'm 50% cash at the present time. I feel sorry for these managers that must remain invested in a certain area. If you must play this ponzi game then being nimble and humble is the only way to go. I wish all the luck in the world to all those managers that are convinced their thesis will work out. Keep telling yourselves you know what you are doing.
Control the headlines and you control the HFT's, algos, momo's, and pretty much the markets-- may be why this newscorp crap will be interesting for other reasons.
The SPX (along with many others) went on an official daily buy signal today, and doing so by ending the day with a very constructive hourly chart to boot. I have the U.S. equity markets on a continuation buy with new highs being the minimum target. It will be interesting to see if this rally fails to hit targets though. Europe is going to be a major drag at very least. Asia is a bit more positive. I also still think we see lower lows before we see anything sustainable longer term.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/following-plethora-technical-breakdowns...
marked up distribution, expect next session a sell.
panic buyups...any leverage trader would be decimated buying into these false breakouts. watching asia open next 5hrs for clues...see if PMI low Asian 'powerhouses' start to flip out on inflation issues again.
There is a very high probability that these markets are no longer about supply and demand.
They have become a policy tool for the current administration.
As such the algos are driven by political agenda and not by profit.
driven by both... while you're proving to the pol's you got their back, why not make some money at it? (serious money, at that.... for campaign contributions)
exactly. The low volume day today and yesterday are indicative of the insider circle of privileged traders that run this show. The future, if it continues as it has, will be the privileged few (companies) that are TBTF and in control of society. You work for them, you get paid by them and you'll follow their orders.
Maybe Martin Armstrong was right after all ..... strictly following his Pi cycle theory no matter the 'present circumstances" (this makes no sense to me .... facts, or certainly the 'perception' of facts, dictates behavior & responses .... at least I want to believe others are rational).
wonder what old school/style brokerage traders would make of this 'market' action? Art Cashen is the closest to that viewpoit, I guess ....
Marc Faber on July 15 or so had some pretty choice comments .. same basic perspecitive but more commentary & insight than typical of 30 second answer tv appearances ala Bloomberg & CNBC
CNBC's Cramer spins the Tuesday "rally" (6.06p ET):
"This rally proves the value of just letting it ride....and not getting in and out of the market."
TRANSLATION: Lemmings and sheep, please buy and hold some more of the the NYFRB's ramped equities (from my clients and advertisers)....then look out below.
I remember reading a while back about a federal raid on a white supremacist 'hate' group in Texas... seems that when the bust went down, EVERYONE in the room produced a badge of some sort. Seems the group was 'created' by the FBI to catch would-be militant anti-Americans and was 'infiltrated' by the CIA, ATF, Texas Rangers, Homeland Security, etc... there wasn't a single 'citizen' in the group -- just a bunch of badged-up piss-ants feeding on each other.
Wouldn't it be HYSTERICAL if the market implosion ends in a similar fashion? When all the dust settles, we'll find out that the market was all FED money creating the appearance of velocity by changing hands from one shell company to another... Yea, that would almost be worth the price of admission.
Does anybody know how I can calculate this cumulative divergence beast. I am assuming this is some sort formula for calculating the participation of retail traders.
Does anybody know how I can calculate this cumulative divergence beast. I am assuming this is some sort formula for calculating the participation of retail traders.