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What Is Wrong With This Chart?
Spot the 3 differences...
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Actually, that is not really true --- Nadler is in fact quite correct, by his own standards --- in pushing the central banking cartel's pro-fiat, pro-Establishment propaganda, and furthering their insidious agenda by continually poormouthing and downtalking gold. You make the erroneous assumption that his malevolent daily diatribes are designed to propagate the truth about gold, when in fact they are precisely the opposite.
Nadler has long ago thrown in his lot with the Dark Side. The man is pure evil.
Absolutely correct... and the reason that I have never purchased a damn thing from Kitco...
platinum 1900.00
gold 1400.00
palladium 900.00
silver 30.00
Thanks for the perspective. I remember when I started buying at 5.50 I thought - this is a joke!!
Quite the humble thespian you are. Well done!
Aye, he yis. An e's too 'umble to mention the AAPL at $10
Nope, don't own it; never did.
You may inquire in 3 fortnights I see a dip on the horizon. Regarding AAPL.
Whats wrong with this chart.. Let me guess.. Its missing a Cusip number?
Backwardation/contango?
YEEESS!! You win a cup of cherry Koolade. What flavor do you prefer?
Thanks for the Trophy. Isn't it spelled CoolAid? I like ya Willie!
it could mean that, and it could mean silver is to hot
My guess, is that shorts are covering and longs are standing for delivery. Or, it represents a true detachment between the physical and paper market (possible combination of both).
Real men are made by guessing into a bull run...Mmmm maybe not
Real men are made by making an ass of themselves on a daily basis in "blogsville", or maybe not.....
And the slowest guy gets made into a girl.
Like James Turk said the other day, silver is in backwardation to 2015. Yes, 2015.....
After the Mayan end of times and before the Terminator makes his appearance.
And both "guesstimates" have a similar likelihood of payoff.
Great idea, a basic finance question will select for comments from knowledgeable people,unlike myself.Everything I have learned about finance started when I began reading Zero Hedge and comments.
i am long silver. cant wait to get rich.
That propeller on your head looks like a top !!!!!
That bag over YOUR head is for our protection -- thanks!
If silver sells off then the U.S will issue bonds that JPM will buy and then sell to the FED for like $5 over spot to make sure everyone is made whole.
This is how it works right?
justa newbie learing how to invest responsibily.
[justa newbie learing how to invest responsibily.]---bob_dabolina
I'm sorry, bob, that market left approx 7 years ago. Everything is full-on risk now.
I finished my last trade Monday. I'm out. Time to push away from the poker table, step outside, take in a deep sobering breath of night air, and drive home to the important things in life. What's next.
By the way, from my time on ZH, I did pick out the change from contango to backwardation and understand the significance. Long phys Ag since 18$. Thanks for all the instruction you ZHers.
Both my comments are refering to Cossacks question , is that a new form of captcha?
There seems to be some confusion about how that graph works. Let me try:
The orange line is a chart of the 1/18/11 closing prices of Silver futures contracts, maturing on the dates on the X axis . . . etc.
SPOT the 3 differences. There is no x axis.
Ahhhh...what a work of art and a long time in coming...to the moon bitchez.
And for those who may not have followed this over the years: this is exactly the conditon predicted by Antale Fekete (the Austrian-school economist) several years back, as silver approaches delivery failure and the end of the phony paper price fixing game.
Sooo I should respect some guy because he made a market call that took 41- FOURTY ONE YEARS to become accurate?
Dude! All Austrians aren't economists, or even good ones. Some Austrians have other designs. It only needs a fool to follow. Wink, wink, tool.
I'm curious, do you have to pay the monkey who randomly pushes keys on your computer to produce your posts time and a half after normal business hours? Or is it simply a case of "It puts its fingers on the keys or else it gets the hose again."?
While in general feeding the insufferable nightspawn here is discouraged, THAT was a good one. ROFLMAO. Been thinking for a while about how (or if) to address his ilk, thanks.
I remember something about watching for the last contango. It looks a bit like that might have been it last week. My siver shares are up 20% today.
Wrong with it?!?! It's friggin BEAUTIFUL!
Oh HELL !! Come on man!! This is a physical blog!! Get chur bearins man!!
CCRV is a derivitive, will never pay, can't be buried and represents ONE , ONE IOTA of what's in Circ!!, ya can't spen it fer cryin. Look at it ya weasel it's a freaking chart. Ain even paper. SHhhhesh
Back of the line there'll be little in the way of bean soup fer yo yau scrwany pooper!!
I was in at 9, 15, 18, and 27.50. I feel so backwards not having any paper.
I have this friend in Egypt. When he get wakes from a self induced coma,he will lease some space in the doomsday vault to you. Paper! Fogetta bout it.
You mistook what I wrote. I spent FRNs to get physical, physical, I wanna get physical. Let me hear your body talk...your body talk. (Olivia Newton John ringin' in my ears.)
Darn you, now that stupid song's stuck in my head...
And didn't she look hot in those leotards?!
Chart shows that SLV(paper) is about to "meet its maker", physical will blow higher since shorts will be OBLITERATED! it also means JPM winns(temporary) on its paper shorts but then will be forced to cover since physical will go balistic!
Like I said in other threads, stay in physical and short any and everything else!
Remember. What happens when you have massive short covering? Every trade has to square itself. Even though the trade is rebalancing, the covering will send a short term buy signal.
Answer – three different colors
Somewhat better answer – On 1/18 we have normal contango. On 2/11 we’re in backwardation with short term buying seemingly funded in part by selling farther out (indicated by the farthest contract on 2/11 falling below the 1/18 price for the same contract). On 2/17 the entire complex launches skyward to who knows where.
Best answer – They are all bogus representations of how the future is going to unfold. The curves are way too smooth. None reflect the points of shock accompanied by step function price changes when JPM bribes the Comex and CFTC to intervene in the market with new rules and procedures that will surely benefit JPM, followed by another step function where it all breaks down, physical silver becomes extinct, and Blythe Masters leaps from a 40 story window.
As I remember, Oil was in backwardation for years.
It finally went contango in the spring of 2008.
At the time, Art Cashin patiently explained to everybody that professional traders all know, this is a bearish sign.
I took him at hs word, and sold.
Tyler, have a look at the corn futures.
Corn was limit up again today, hitting an all-time high,
and its in backwardation by over $1.50 a bushel, or 20%!!!!!
An interesting point (to me, at least! LOL) is that we've reached a point where you literally cannot hold enough physical silver--there just isn't enough to go around. The "richest" entity can't convert an unlimited asset to a limited one.
This may sound obvious to the cognoscenti here, but I would counter that it really isn't a situation that is common in our world, and most have no experience of such a rare event.
To end on a positive note: where does that leave the holders of their (forcibly) limited silver? In the fucking driver's seat, that's where!
(assuming you have another source of income)
Forget the noise - there is a sizeable interest attempting to cover all or a portion of a major silver equity short position, and there are few shares available for him to do so. He is offering a %70 rate to borrow annually at this point from holders of the share in their cash accounts. Standard rate was closer to %10 in this share over the last 6 months.
You don't offer this type of rate unless you are about to be gutted.
And if you can't find the shares to cover, you have to beg, borrow, or...what was that last one again?
I think Jim Sinclair posted something on this the other day.
ZH,
goggle the FT report on a ECB fat finger money pump error to crappy EZ banks, went from 1.2b to 15b the next day!
of course the haywire trade is blamed for EZ banks now looking like they are aout to diw one by one.
http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/7/0/153524807.html
Some silver was rolled today, but the interesting part is surely the unrolled decline of OI in copper.
Ouch I sure hope you know who doesn't get stuck holding a bunch of copper that nobody wants or needs right now.
Oh wait. I totally do hope they get stuck with it.
Backwardation now exists along the whole trading timeline. This means there are no large holders of physical silver left who want to trade their physical today for a paper promise of silver tomorrow. The chart shows they can get $31.60 today in cash, not have to pay storage on thier hoard, invest the proceeds anyway they like and then replace their hoard later at a roughly two percent discount. When backwardation exists, then the return on the physical longs money is both guaranteed and ABOVE current market interest rates. The fact that their are no large holders of physical willing to make that trade is very telling. It says there are no physical longs who want a return on their money above prevaling rates. The guaranteed above market return on their position is the carrot being offered by the evil empire to entice holders of physical out of their positions. Still that is not enough. Now that the market is in backwardation there are NO large holders of physical left who wish to take the evil empire's offer of free money. This could only be if the longs are convinced they won't get their silver back. Remember the EE's scam has two parts. Depress the price by selling lots of paper silver, all the while buying up all the physical they can get their hands on at a discount to true market price. When there is no more physical to be had (last contango?) there will be a default. This will send the physical price skyward and the public clamoring to get in any way they can. The morgue could (if they had scruples) use their physical to cover their shorts - but they won't. Better to default, send the price sky high & then begin distribution of their physical hoard when the price is high enough. Behaving in this unscrupulous manner actually leverages the runup in price while sticking paper longs with the bill. Genius really. GET YA SOME!!
Ayuh...
BallsDeep That was impressive! Thanks.
Yeah. And also week longs have been thoroughly shaken out. Not sure, but the longs who don't NEED silver NOW are probably quite few.
so JP is going to default on paper silver?
they need an AIG to take the risk and be made whole under the whole TBTF scam.
BDG
"TipofTheHat" for this, much better, then mine, explanation of what's going to happen...like I said above, stay in physical and short the rest, hihihihi!
Excellent explanation. Thanks!
Thanks BD - now I get it.
Sorry, a newcomer [me] still lacks an understanding of how this ties to the paper longs, by which I assume you mean ETFs like SLV? Can anyone shed some light?
Hold on to your SLV (or SIVR, or miners), but hold on tight, it'll be a rough ride.
(Futures imply a drop in price though, as mentioned in many comments above, this is merely to trick the foolish into getting rid of their Silver at today's {seemingly} higher price).
Deviously brilliant. Satan himself couldn't have conceived the concoction brewed by these scoundrels. Burn the Morg.
Looks like Frodo is gonna get his finger bit off and Gollum is going for a hot lava soak -- SPLASH! (Sizzle, pop, sssshhhh!)
Awesome explanation. Thanks much.
Couldnt have put it better myself.
+31.93
Charlie Bravo
Man you smart Men and Women are a joy to joust with. You have bumped my IQ. Thank you and trade well. Off to asia I go. USD/JPY just above 83.00 for support, and DXY 77.60 with a little lee way to 77.50. ACB's are lightening up. Flows are coming back to the states. Best Wishes, and thanks for the forum.
3 silver etf's v. spot?
Not sure if this was posted yet but this will be the problem with people buying physical bullion. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/02/16/bc-silver-the...
Of course this is another staged propaganda story by the government/media to keep people from preserving their wealth.
How about on the new Alaska Gold Rush show where the old crusty man reports he recovers about $30k in gold a day? How long will it take for a few bandits to make a visit to his camp?
You shouldn't read made up stories.
Hey did ya hear. Phone makers sold 1.6 billion phones last year. For realz.
Did ya also hear. Apple whent from 1 billion apps sold to 3 billion in a year and then went to 10 billion in another year. For realz. While selling 48 million phones into a 1.6 billion phone market. Of course only 15 million of those activated through at@t so france orange must have sold tons of them which is hard since they only had 30 million subscribers in 2009. I bet they sold like 24 million iphones and about 1/2 a billion androids. For realz.
Also Intel broke all it's sales records in the middle of a recession. And I hear this one media company in china is making huge bank. And rent income on empty chinese cities is awesome. Oh and blythe found some silver on a sunken ship and they are gong to dump it on the market.
"You shouldn't read made up stories."
From the thumb head whose avatar is a greek pagan third tier psudo god.
Speaking of made up stories. What's your persona today william. Are you trying to be a greek history expert again?
tip toe through the tulips with m(ania)e
You gotta love this stuff. From the article:
"Wolbeck said investigators don't know why the victim was collecting silver bars."
Is this feigned ignorance or did he just hit every branch on the way down when he fell out of the stupid tree?
Most people have no idea Bernankle is subsidizing US federal expenditures by printing dollars. Why would they understand someone's response?
Huge spike in ECB lending, moody's about to downgrade more Germany Austrian banks. Looks like a creeping liquidity crunch over in Europe. 2008/2009 Lehman crash Euro money pump is on. Could be a big German bank.
WSJ has the story
Aussies,
Westpac bank just self lead a 1billion RMBS to the market...smells like a liquidity squeeze.
AUD is about to get slammed into the DIRT. It's a shame. The moment rates get raised in gbp and usd, the carry trade will be slammed into the MUD. Inflation is the AUD's worst enemy. Catching a falling knife.
Finally, thankyou "Balls"! You are absolutely correct. Better buy NOW no matter what the price for physical silver and gold. There are any number of things that can influence the price, but not the supply. You guys already know that, and you should be figuring out that once the Price Is Right on the insidious stock market(?) all the Evil Bastards will have their shorts on and leave the dumb ass sheeple to their own demise. What a fucking wonderful mess. Just BUY SILVER AND GOLD AND LOCK IT UP, BURY IT IN THE YARD, HIDE IT IN THE ATTIC, etc. You're gonna need it sooner than you think.
spelled APMEX for the illiterate. btw, where's that dumbass Wanger?
And I thought the question was serious.
Silly me. Good one, TD.
Commodes flush tomorrow, but it is short term.
Nothing has changed.
BTFD.
Imagine you had several tons of physical silver sitting in a security vault, paying .005 x market value for annual storage. That's a fair amount of money. You could sell it all on the spot, save storage costs, then buy a forward month contract at a discount. This is easy risk free profit, except for one problem. The market is saying there is risk to doing this trade, the risk of not getting your physical back. Obviously, the market is right and holders of physical are not letting it go. The paper market is being discredited before your very eyes. The USD is losing it, smart money is holding on to the metal.
WTF would you have it in a vault, vs in hand, where you can rotate polishing?
All I know is that we finally get to kill someone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrllCZw8jiM&feature=related
Algore surfaced?
It means......................... ???????????? BTFD ?
So this means it takes at least two to contango?? Everyone is backing out of the dance?
dup
Jon Nadler says everything is Okee Dokee.
Jeffery told him so,and william the bastUrd too.
It's only Bassackwardization in "pure silver", the market for junk silver is still contango. I think.
hahaha
The cane is high, the smugglin is easy, the catfish is jumpin, why yes, everything is Okeedokee in Okeefeenokee.
Ag has blown past the levels of March '08, but back then it made it all the way down to $7 a few short months later. It's hard then to think that in 3 short years real demand has increased to a level supporting $32 from $7. Hoarding, hedges, paper contracts, ETF's and monetization, it's all good -so long as the money keeps flowing because markets never look back; and that's why they call them futures.
The world is playing musical chairs on a tilt-o-whirl that is spinning so fast it seems stable but the political carnies are so busy fighting over the change as it flies out of pockets that few notice that the change is intermixed with ball bearings and Skynard tune blaring "what's that smell?" is almost over.
How many more dayz till Gimbal-lock?
....something happened after 1-18-11...its chart is 'normal'...others show more pronouneced backwardation. The 2-17 shows an accelerating rate of backwardation vs 2-11.
It would be very interesting to look at these 1 week from now....
just a reminder to diversify... note that silver is not on the list.
http://www.rense.com/general71/100.htm
Does this really have adverse effect on long paper Ag? Article in Seeking alpha,sorry I don’t have link, states both SLV PSLV have Ag in storage. As Ag rises etf value should also rise. Good articles by Ted Butler on long term supply shortage suggests this is short covering .Am long SLV considering change to PSLV as I am gaining more info on Sprott's management integrity? Any authoritative advice on use of etfs for SEP IRA use appreciated. BD
Difference #1: +3%
3 1/2 weeks pass,
Difference #2: -0.5%
6 days pass,
Difference #3: -1.5%
Or thereabouts.
Where's a good place to check out data like this for myself? (i.e. someone who has no Bloomberg terminal.)
.
The graph charts the term structure of silver futures on the different maturities of the contracts (on the X axis, the horizontal one): silver is traded for delivery in September 2011, may 2012, july 2013 and so on. The different lines are drawn for three dates, representing the prices of different futures contracts on a same day, ie January 18 for the orange line, February 11 for the green line, and yesterday for the white line.
The chart only says that the up move on silver for shorter dated contracts was bigger than the up move on the longer dated contracts (which is something that happens quite usually in any commodity market) and that the market moved from a contango to a backwardation situation.
BallsDeepGold. Good comment. But, what makes you so sure that JPM is holding a large enough physical silver horde to deliver against their shorts? What I find most interesting about the price curve today is the fact that even the most severe backwardation curve is still in contango near the beginning; the very short term. In other words, prompt paper is still trading slightly above physical. Why is this structure so important to JPM? Because, it creates an economic incentive (just a few pennies is enough) for prompt paper longs to liquidate their paper position at a profit instead of taking physical delivery and and then selling the physical. The later process is something that the holders of huge short paper positions (like JPM) cannot permit, because, they simply don’t have enough physical silver to deliver against their shorts to all the longs. In short, they are naked short futures.
In a broader sense, this is also a shining example of what happens when major manipulation and abuse of the futures market is permitted to continue. When the Hunt Brothers manipulated the silver market, they were called on the carpet by the exchanges and regulators and forced to liquidate their enormous position. The same has happened to many others for even lesser violations. But, when major banks like JPM and HSBC take similarly ridiculous huge positions in the futures markets, which they can’t possibly deliver on, the exchanges and regulators do nothing. These gigantic firms are permitted to use and abuse the markets in any way that suits them, regardless of the costs to other market participants and the long term integrity of the markets themselves. And just like the mortgage markets, and CDO’s, it will one day blow up in their face. And even then, other market participants and innocent bystanders who have nothing to do with these markets will ultimately bear the brunt of the cost.
The relenless London beatdown on gold every day between 4 and 8:30 shows the real fear of gold getting away from manipulators. Bad money backed by more bad money is driving the world into the only thing that is real. Commodities, headed by gold and silver, are real. CB's and govt's sqandered the underpinning of the entire financial system and over the last few years free money (bad) has been moving into "real money". Me thinks the gig is almost up.
Does this mean that the Dollar measured in Silver is now in contango?