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What You Need To Know About Buying Silver At A Time When Even The Canadian Mint Says "It Has Sold Everything It Has"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Even as silver performed some unprecedented fireworks today, plunging on what was a margin hike in... crude, the metal continues to trade just below its post-Hunt Brother highs. So for those who still have not decided whether or not to take the plunge and buy into the precious metal (which, granted, was selling at $8.80 three years ago, and has since nearly quadrupled in price), we present the following discussion between Jeff Clark of Casey Research and The Daily Crux, which answers "what you need to know about buying silver today." This comes a week after we first highlighted that the Canadian Mint has sold it last stock in silver and has demand for much more.

As we said back then:

We have sold everything we can produce in silver and have demand for at least twice that volume,” said David Madge, head of bullion sales at the Royal Canadian Mint, which produces the silver Maple Leaf coin.

So now that you know what the considerations are of one of the biggest players in the space, here is Casey Research's Jeff Clark:

What You Need to Know About Buying Silver Today

It’s hard to believe that less than three years ago, silver was
$8.80 an ounce. Since then it has nearly quadrupled in value (up 385%)
and more than doubled in the last 12 months alone.

That’s great for those who already own the metal – but is it too late for the rest of us to get in?

To answer that question, BIG GOLD
Editor Jeff Clark sat down with our friends of The Daily Crux. Read
what he had to say about the silver rally, and why you should view any
correction as good news.

Crux: Jeff, silver has had an incredible run over the past year or so... Where do you think it's headed next?

Jeff Clark: Well, that's probably the most common
question we get these days. Silver has definitely been very exciting.
The price has basically doubled in a year, and many of the stocks have
done much better than that... So you could be forgiven for asking how
long that can continue.

I think the bullish case for silver going forward comes down to three main factors.
 
The first is industrial demand. Everyone knows industrial use is much
greater for silver than gold, and that does make it more susceptible to
an economic slowdown. But what's interesting is these industrial uses
are growing rapidly.

For example, all of the following uses for silver are increasing:
medical, electronics, food processing, water treatment, paper, building
materials, wood preservation, textiles, consumer products... the list
goes on and on. Every bandage-maker, for example, now offers a
silver-based product. You can buy silver-laced toothbrushes,
hairbrushes, combs, and make-up applicators. In England, you can buy
silver-based soap.

The takeaway is that all these uses are on the rise, so even in an
economic slowdown, there is a higher level of base demand. The demand
for any individual application could decline, but the total number of
applications for silver is increasing. Over time, I think we'll see
increasing levels of demand.

The second major factor is investment demand. Investment demand is
soaring and can't be ignored. The U.S. Mint sold more one-ounce Silver
Eagles in January than in any other month since they began creating
them in 1986. China's net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010. Against
all this you have the fact that most Americans don't own any gold or
especially silver. So even though there's already incredible investment
demand, the potential for it to increase is still tremendous.

The third factor is supply. Ask yourself what's wrong with this
picture: Total global demand for silver is about 890 million ounces a
year. Worldwide mine production is about 720 million ounces a year.
Scrap currently makes up the difference, but I think the crucial point
to recognize is that producers can't dig up enough silver to meet
current demand.

So what happens if industrial uses continue to rise? What happens if
investment demand continues growing? What happens if we do get some
type of currency collapse? What happens if Doug Casey is right and we
get a true mania in gold and silver?

We had bottleneck issues with physical supply in 2008, where mints
across the world couldn't keep up with orders. A lot of it was due to
them being unprepared for the rush, and they've since improved some of
their operations. That's great.

But even with all the improvements, even after adding equipment, even
after adding staff, even after adding work shifts... they're still
having issues. Over the past three or four months, we've been hearing
about mints having delays, temporarily running out of stock, etc. So
it's still a problem.

And if all the factors I just mentioned come into play, then I think
you could say "Bottleneck, meet desperation." Regardless of how well
prepared a manufacturer might be, demand at some point could
legitimately overwhelm the system, and I think that's a very real
possibility. Anything could happen. But the scary thing is, we may not
have enough supply to meet demand if we get a mania.

So based on these factors, my view is that silver can continue rising
for quite some time. I don't think it stops until SLV, the silver ETF,
is a favorite of the fund managers... until Silver Wheaton is a market
darling of the masses... until Pan American Silver is Wall Street's top
pick for the year... That's when I'll be looking for the end of this
silver bull market.

Crux: Speaking of a mania, just how high do you think silver could go?
 
Clark: Many people don't realize this, but silver rose
3,646% in the 1970s, from its November '71 low to its January 1980
high. If you were to apply the same percentage rise to our current bull
market, silver would climb another 500% from here, and the price would
hit $160 an ounce.

Those are just numbers, but it shows that we have an established precedent for the price to go much higher.

It's the fundamentals, of course, that will determine how high the
price ultimately goes. Show me a healthy dollar, show me no threat of
inflation, show me a responsible government that stops printing
money... Show me a repentant Iran and North Korea... Show me that the
sovereign debt issues in Europe are resolved... Show me positive real
interest rates... Show me that unemployment is plummeting, that bank
closures have stopped, that real estate is recovering...

Show me all that and we'll talk about the gold and silver run being
over... But until those things start changing in a big way, I'm buying.

Crux: Silver bears often suggest that a large part of
the rally in the last bull market was due to the Hunt brothers, who
were accused of trying to corner the market. What do you say to that?
How much do you think they attributed to the price rise in the '70s?

Clark: Well, I'm skeptical that the reason silver went
as high as it did was primarily due to the Hunt brothers' activity in
the market. It's interesting to note that they bought silver primarily
because they mistrusted the government, and because they thought silver
was going to be confiscated. Remember... gold ownership was illegal
when they first started buying silver in the early '70s.

Yes, they bought a lot of silver... But if you look at the correlation,
you'll notice the price didn't necessarily move up when they bought.
In fact, when the rumors that they were trying to "corner" the silver
market really started going mainstream, which was in the spring of
1974, the silver price dropped solidly for the next two years. One
would think that the price would've risen, not fallen, if silver was
being "cornered."

Secondly, if you look at price charts, silver moved in lockstep with
gold back then. They rose and fell pretty much together. They both
peaked on the very same day, January 21, 1980. So unless the gold
market was equally spooked by what the Hunt brothers were doing with
silver, it seems a stretch to assume they were the primary cause of the
rise.

Last, as my editor pointed out, you have to consider that it was the
mainstream media that largely promoted this idea the Hunts were
"cornering" the market. With that in mind, one has to be suspicious
that was, in fact, the case.

To be clear, I'm sure they had some effect, but to suggest they were
the main impetus behind silver's tremendous rise doesn't seem wholly
accurate. And look at the price today... It's outperforming gold in our
current bull market, just as it did in the '70s, and there's no Nelson
Bunker Hunt around.

Besides... who's to say that we won't see other "Hunts" come along
today and try to buy up large quantities of the metal? I wouldn't rule
it out.

So again, I think it's more important to look at silver's fundamentals
for any kind of price projection than a one-off event. And those
fundamentals are very bullish.

Crux: What are the bearish arguments for silver?

Clark: Well, I touched on it earlier... but if the
economy crashes, silver is likely to suffer more than gold due to its
large industrial use component. Another factor is that silver is not
bought by central banks, so one source of demand for gold is not
present with silver. But I think the bigger trend of a currency crisis
is going to dwarf those concerns... And I think that silver will do very
well in that environment.

Silver is more volatile than gold, but that just means you get better
opportunities to buy it cheaper, and probably make more money on it if
you sell near the top.

So yes, there are bearish arguments for silver, and one has to be
prudent in buying it – you don't want it to be the only asset you own,
for example. But it would be equally a mistake to not own a meaningful
amount.

Crux: So... is today a good time to buy?

Clark: Well, how many ounces do you own? And what percentage of your assets do those ounces represent?

There's your answer. If you have minimal or no exposure, I suggest
buying. Don't rush out and spend all your available cash, because there
will always be corrections, but the less you own, the more you want to
make a plan to add a meaningful amount to your portfolio.

Remember... silver is a currency replacement just like gold. It's
money... and therefore you want to make sure you own enough for both
protection and profit. If you don't own enough, I suggest going into
"accumulation" mode... buying some on a regular basis, like dollar-cost
averaging.

Our recommendation in Casey's BIG GOLD
which is a conservative letter, by the way – is that approximately
one-third of your investable assets be devoted to the precious metals
market. That includes gold, silver, and precious metal stocks. That may
sound extreme to some, but we think the risk to currencies right now
is extreme. Therefore, being overweight precious metals is justified.
Obviously, each individual investor has to be comfortable with what
they do.

Crux: Do you a recommend a certain percentage of ounces in silver versus gold?

Clark: We generally recommend you hold more gold than
silver. We suggest approximately 70%-80% in gold versus 20%-30% in
silver. Depending on your situation and risk tolerance, you may wish to
have more or less in silver, but again the point is to have meaningful
exposure.

Crux: For individuals who are new to buying precious metals, what are your preferred ways to purchase silver?

Clark: The options are becoming more and more
mainstream, so it's getting easier to buy both metals. The alternatives
are growing, and they're also improving. You basically have two
choices: You can either buy and store it yourself, or you can buy and
have someone else store it for you. Ideally, you want to do both... you
want to diversify.

There are risks to storing metals yourself, such as theft, loss, or
fire. You can put it in a safe deposit box, but then it's in the
financial system and it's subject to banking hours and could even be
susceptible to confiscation, though I'm skeptical that will actually
happen. But I do think everyone should have some physical silver handy,
at least a couple months worth of expenses.

So the short answer is to diversify what you buy and how you store it.
For physical silver, I would stick to buying the popular one-ounce
bullion coins – Eagles, Maple Leafs, etc.

You can also buy silver funds and ETFs in your brokerage account or
online, and there are definitely some advantages to doing that. They're
easy to buy, sell, and trade. There's no need to mess with the storage
yourself, and it's especially beneficial for those who have larger
holdings. You can put $50,000 worth of gold in the palm of your hand –
but $50,000 worth of silver would require a small suitcase, so space is
an issue. A lot of online options now have delivery alternatives
available, and some even have free storage. Options here include the
various ETFs, closed-end funds, online options like GoldMoney or
BullionVault, and certificate programs like the Perth Mint Certificate.

So find a couple options you're comfortable with, diversify your
holdings, and just continue to buy on the dips, with the intention to
hold until the bull market is over.

Crux: How about silver stocks. Can you give us a favorite?

Clark: Well, it's pretty clear the go-to stock in the
silver industry – in my opinion at least – is Silver Wheaton. It's
definitely been a sweetheart the past two years. It's given us
everything we could want in a silver stock.

The stock suffered badly in the meltdown of '08, and things did get a
little dicey at the time, but I remember thinking that unless the world
comes to an end and the silver price never recovers, this company is
going to survive and bounce back – in part because of management and in
part because of the business model. They have no exposure to mining
costs, for example.

Shares back then were around $3... If you bought at the time, they're now a ten-bagger. So it's been an incredible run.

The question, of course, is going forward: Since the stock is already at $35, can it be another ten-bagger from here?

Well, the company expects to increase "production" by 70% by 2013. And
their costs will basically stay stagnant. Meanwhile, imagine where the
silver price could be in the next two to three years, and you can see
this company can make enormous amounts of cash. Some of that is
probably priced into the stock already, but you can't deny where this
company is headed over the next few years.

In the bigger picture, you have to look at our currency issues –
they're very real. They're deep. They're intractable. So when I look at
what is likely to happen to the dollar and thus what level of
inflation is probable, I think silver will go substantially higher,
which means Silver Wheaton is going to go much, much higher. Only if
you believe deflation ultimately wins the war and that inflation
doesn't occur do you think silver or Silver Wheaton won't do well.

Could it have a big correction? Well, it recently dropped as much as
28%, but sure... it could easily fall more than that in a major
correction. But if that happened, I'd consider it a big buying
opportunity.

In my opinion, the bigger the correction, the bigger the buying
opportunity, because I really believe the future is very bright for
that company.

Crux: Sounds good. Any parting thoughts?

Clark: If you're bullish on gold, I think you need to
be bullish on silver, unless you think inflation will never come to
pass. Regardless of the short-term fluctuations in the market, it's
only a matter of time before the currency issues punch us in the gut
and inflation really takes off.

Second, remember that silver will be volatile, but focus on the
fundamentals and use selloffs as buying opportunities. Until the
fundamentals driving the bull market change, buy.

Bottom line, the bull market is far from over. I think it's going to go
much longer and much stronger... So buying on dips is the best advice I
could give anyone.

Crux: Thanks for talking with us, Jeff.

Clark: You're welcome. Thanks for having me.

 

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Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:34 | 995143 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

i keep hearing about 'shortages', yet theres plenty of silver at apmex i noticed.... someone go buy up all those monster boxes over there; once apmex has shortages, THEN i'll be convinced.

 

Or perhaps they are referring to 'BIG money buyers... like, for people with 1 mil plus to spend on silver. Then theres shortages? i know you wouldnt have any problems buying 1 mil bucks worth of shares of SLV...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:41 | 995181 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

no shortage of SLV shares, that's for sure, after all, they don't need silver at SLV, they don't need, they don't have it and it won't be there

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:47 | 995198 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Well the shortages are built in, when the big boys start catching wind of "shortage" they may just decide to audit their holdings. I wonder if the TBTF will find a way to have the same small pile of silver in 5 different places at once? PSLV trades above NAV, why? Fractional Reserve Vault storage!! Too bad they still charge fees to you, because that vault is empty brother!!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:14 | 995276 JohnG
JohnG's picture

"Fractional Reserve Vault storage!!"

I disagree, and would go so far as to say that this is not a true statement.  I think you do not have any idea about which you write.

Sprott has the silver.  Go read the prospectus and learn something.

I own a mountain of PSLV, and I wouldn't if I didn't know what I was owning.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:20 | 995290 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I was trying to say that's why PSLV is popular, it's audited.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:27 | 995306 JohnG
JohnG's picture

OK.  Your sentence structure confused me :)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:26 | 995302 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

In the Interview it's mentioned that Sprott's Stack was certainly there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-onl...

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:17 | 996553 goldmaple70
goldmaple70's picture

While Sprott may have had a stack of silver at that Scotia vault, the PSLV trust has its silver at the Royal Canadian Mint.  That zerohedge article also preceded the launch of the PSLV trust.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:28 | 995308 VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

If you dont hold it, you dont own it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:05 | 995338 JohnG
JohnG's picture

We disagree, and that's ok.  It's an opinion.

I think it's Graham Summers, article on bullion several days ago.  If I can find it I'll link it in a sec.

 

edit: Can't find it there are too many articles.  The focus of the article was the various ways to invest in metals.  It confirmed my thinking that if you own a physical trust, like PHYS or PSLV then you do own the bullion.  Either way, I am confortable with Sprott. 

I bought deep in the PSLV ipo, so keep in mind that premium to NAV is profit to me!  I can redeem for physical as well, and I don't have to pay premium over spot to buy elswhere...online, coinshop, etc.

 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:48 | 995375 Barmaher
Barmaher's picture

That's bullshit.  If you own it at Bullionvault or Goldmoney it's a lot safer than keeping it at home.  Just ask this poor fool whos home vault got ripped off for $750K of silver bars.    If you want to keep an emergency supply at 'hand' that's one thing.  There's a reason you can't get reasonable insurance for home storage.  

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/2/Pages/Robbers-Make-Off-with-750000-in-Silver-Bars.aspx

 

 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:59 | 995413 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

as valid as your point may be (there's always someone who gets ripped off) AND he probably didn't keep his pie=hole shut, the fact remains, If you don't hold it you don't own it despite the possible consequences of it being stolen.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:06 | 995437 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Yes, I'd have to say that this guy was sitting on a very impressive pile of silver and just couldn't resist either showing someone, or talking about it. That, or his wife or a disgruntled kid sold him out.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 01:37 | 996095 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

You need to have two vaults. One with 10% of your stash. The other one should be very well hidden and only you know. Also, for that much money, he should have had gold coins, which are easier to hide. 50-60 times less volume. Think PVC pipe painted gray among other plumbing.  Two meters of PVC will hold 700 1/oz Maples = $1MM

Large silver bar will turn gray after awhile and look like lead. Use it as a doorstop in the bedroom. 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:21 | 995638 dumpster
dumpster's picture
by Barmaher
on Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:48
#995375 \\ gold money bullion vault ,, needs the Internet to sell,,  and they know where you have the account Internet goes down for a week ,, your sucking eggs .  and you sell they transfer the dough to a middle man .. maybe a bank that will release the funds in a week , you know bank holiday and such. Where as silver and gold hidden well ,, can be exchanged for goods ,,, mano to mano , keep thinking the internet is a safe way to go.. 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:55 | 995400 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

originated by Ponce Cuba :)

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:19 | 995923 dhengineer
dhengineer's picture

Central Fund of Canada (CEF) has audited metal as well... it has approximately half silver half gold.  Been holding them in various quantities since the stock was at 8.00.  It's not silver or gold in hand (have that as well) but it is used to pay future bills...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 02:49 | 996203 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

If you have purchased SLV then you likely understand that it uses fractional vault storage. That said, in the case of foreknowledge you'd want to pay these 'storage fees' to protect against those very mean and meddlesome individuals who might audit, take a peak, or elsewise mess with your complicity.

<sarcasm off>

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:56 | 995215 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Speaking of shortages, the US Mint reports that 'production of uncirculated Silver American Eagles continues to be temporarily suspended because of unprecented demand'

 

Are we to try and believe that today's smash down in Silver price was anything other than outright manipulation?

http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&categoryId=13738&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10191&top_category=10191

 

BTW is this old news regarding the US Mint?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:04 | 995244 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Manipulation undoubtedly.  Ask yourself if you think people will be trading their silver for dollars a few years, or will they be trading silver in exchange for A COMPLETELY new currency.  Probably backed by silver!  You won't really be exchanging your silver, you will be taking bullion in to the Mint, and walking out with money!

Check out the Captial Research Institute's latest, "The Elephant in the Room":

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

"We have all heard the expression at one time or another. An uncomfortable fact that every one is (at least dimly) aware of, yet is not spoken of. When discussing the global economy, the turmoil and the unrest the world is experiencing the elephant in the room is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve. The Fed (and other central banks) have unleashed the most recent spate of food inflation on the world through their ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and use of ‘quantitative easing’ (which simply put, is money printing).

Money that would have been kept in savings accounts has been withdrawn (because it earns no interest) and invested largely in stocks, and commodities. On top of that, more money has been conjured into existence, without an increase in real economic activity to accompany it, leaving a larger amount of money chasing the same pile of goods and services. The result, obviously, is a loss of purchasing power, as each newly conjured dollar buys less than the one before it.

Ben Bernanke has come out and attempted to justify his actions, but what has been lost in all his posturing? That the criticism of his policies are legitimate!"

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:05 | 995253 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

i have to think its manipulation, because the dollar did not benefit... margin selling, nonexistent money buying and selling nonexistent silver determining price; how low can they get the price so we can get physical supplies and turn 'shortage rumors' into reality? imo, the shortages will come on price drops... not price rises.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:56 | 995380 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture



nice bit j.c..

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:55 | 995385 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture



clarky is solid.


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:48 | 995207 SilverFiend
SilverFiend's picture

Plenty at Provident Metals.  Placed the order yesterday

and it shipped today.  Been in since $15.  Stayin in!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:05 | 995434 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Thanks for the clue on these guys.  

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:06 | 995247 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

i keep hearing about 'shortages', yet theres plenty of silver at apmex i noticed.... someone go buy up all those monster boxes over there; once apmex has shortages, THEN i'll be convinced.

Laughable - you clowns can't see the forest for the trees. My wallet has $50 dollars in it. Does this prove I'm got plenty of money?

Nope. It proves I have $50 dollars. That's all. But if I owe a million dollars and only have $50 to pay people with, then yeah I am broke.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:26 | 995257 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

nonsense. As long as silver can be bought in bulk (like apmex), then there aint no shortages and I gotta call bullshit. i dont like being led a certain direction when there is plain evidence to the contrary... but i expect there is alot of pent up demand for the physical product and if we see a price collapse we will have no supply and low prices with astronomical premiums... thanks to their paper manipulation.

imo creating a sense of urgency during the price RISE is creationism... and the sense of urgency that will emerge when the prices tank and supplies are gone will be realism. i think we should start underweighing the fiat prices because they will mean less and less over time; especially now the dollar is not benefitting from the silver price drops like it used too..

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:56 | 995403 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Find me a COMEX deliverable bar available for immediate purchase ANYWHERE.

You can't.  Becuase there is a shortage.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 03:14 | 996232 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

 

Here, try these guys.

I really like them and they have COMEX bars for sale.

 

http://golddealer.com/bullionpage.html#AG10

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 11:19 | 996849 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Spot +$.60!?  Christ, I might as well buy crappy bars from APMEX (http://www.apmex.com/Product/156/Generic_Silver_999_Fine___As_low_as_089...).  That premium is the HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN for bars of that type.  Normal is 20 cents over spot.

Now APMEX has one as well, for the same premium.  This is nuts.

I'll call them later when they open and see if they have any in stock.  I kind of doubt it.  It looks like they don't update their inventory on that website.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:56 | 997355 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I promised to call and I did.  They are all sold out.

APMEX still has two.  Normally they have dozens.  Those two will likely be gone by next week.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:41 | 997330 searcher68
searcher68's picture

Same as everywhere else I look. No 100 oz. bars available... None! Only 10 oz. or less. Less than a month ago this was not the case. Everyone and their mother still showed availability on the big bars. There most definitely is a shortage imho.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:29 | 995494 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

The point remains and is valid. There are liabilities soon to come due that represent more than can be repaid. This issue has existed since the first receipt for gold was used in transactions. Those who have the vaults and secrets in their favor always find printing a few more receipts a clever idea... until they are destroyed by it. The repetitions of this scenario in history are so regular that the only shocking things about them is that so few people know that this has happened before, or that anyone is surprised when it happens again.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:27 | 995654 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

nonsense. As long as silver can be bought in bulk (like apmex), then there aint no shortages and I gotta call bullshit.

As I said...you're a clown.  APMEX is getting crumbs.....Industrials need 10's of million of ounces per month. By the time APMEX runs out, silver will be 500 an ounce.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:56 | 997156 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

i hope your right. but your need to insult people when making a counter point shows a lack of maturity, and weakens your argument... not strengthens it.

you are speaking from an emotional standpoint... not a rational one.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:22 | 995295 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I caught a spot I liked, yesterday, snagged several bars.Usually I get next day dely (wires), and it did not show.

Called and asked where it was.(once they had a shipment, marked local).

They were out,but since I pulled their chain, they found enough to fill me.

First time since early '09 I have had to wait on any silver bars.

They are sucking wind on Slvr of all kinds now............2 weeks ago, no issues.(unless Eagles/Mapes).

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:43 | 995362 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

There were real shortages when slAg collapsed to their 8.80 during the financil/hedgefund rout. The premiums on 1 oz to 1000 oz stuff was far higher than the COMEX price. Premia alway expand greatly during a large price fall.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:15 | 995621 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

I thought silver was a bubble?

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:31 | 995147 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Kitco has  a buy button by all of their silver and gold charts. They have lots of over priced coins to sell to the suckers.........Maybe you call them up and talk to two tongues Nadler about it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:36 | 995164 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

somebody would like to talk to me? Sure, we have pleeeeeeeeenty of silver at Kitco. Try to buy some though. 

 

ha ha HA HA ha ha

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:11 | 995269 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Nadler and Mish Shedlock are good buddies because they both drink each other's coolaid. I remember a few years ago, they both tried to gang fuck Ted Butler, when he was talking about PM manipulation.  Then later on, they tried to jack with Schiff.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:34 | 995330 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Mish is out to monetize adwords. Quote me on it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:39 | 995349 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I didn't realize "deflation" pulled in that much.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:43 | 995363 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

that's where the irony lies.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:24 | 995299 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Add frt if your stateside, and they are not even in the hunt.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:33 | 995148 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

Anybody seen Bigger Dickus? he said silver to 25. Now we have Mathman with silver 20.

Troll life expectancy on ZH decreasing rapidly. I give Mathman a week at most

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:43 | 995184 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Next Tuesday??

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:48 | 995208 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

when's options expiry.?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:27 | 995307 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Don't know BD, but I agree we will see it at $23-25, and Gold @ 1250/1290, before LAUNCH.

Not that I want it to, but I expect it to, if it does, I smile and BTD.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:52 | 995389 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

MethMan blew his cover by admitting he has a Ferrari and a beach house instead of solid, appreciating assets.   He might just be gone from these hallowed halls.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:15 | 995470 dumpster
dumpster's picture
by RockyRacoon
on Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:52
#995389

 

MethMan blew his cover by admitting he has a Ferrari and a beach house instead of solid, appreciating

 

rocky lol

if any one believes this clown has a big car and a beach house is rolling in saw dust .

He is a troll. Probably in his early diaper stage ,, doesn't give beans if he flows with side splitting nonsense.

their are experts in the field with documented proof  of slver ,, 

sprott, douglas, others who have followed this market for ten years or more .

 

And ass wipe comes on the poster board trying to make some sort of statement that he is a expert

fade to stupid

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:29 | 995793 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Tag Team RockyR and dumpster vs. Troll Rich Math Man

Hmm, I would bet that the Math Man wil just be another memory before long.

"fade to stupid"   <--- I'm going to steal that line and use next time I insult someone.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 05:40 | 996344 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Very hard to believe you have ever offended anyone in your life ;)

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 11:24 | 996866 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He is a nice guy, isn't he?

I used to be a nice guy too.  I am frustrated by the utter lack of critical thinking among these trolls, however.  I am also frustrated by the on/off switch on the critical thinking centers of the brains of partisans when they enter/leave power.  Democrats were damn near libertarian while Bush and Co were in power, but as soon as Obama won, you could see the change come over them INSTANTLY.  Same with the Republicans, they switched Instantly to adopt a libertarian platform.

Funny, you would think that one group or the other would realize that they could actually, you know, remain in office, if they stuck to the libertarian principles that they adopt while they are out of power.  But they never do.  Instead we get Reagans and Obamas.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:59 | 996021 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

silver troll half life decreasing exponetially i agree...  what about MoreCriticalTrader as well...

The major fundementals have not changed in this admitted young newbs mind, though the thought Tyler mentioned gold (now accepted) as only collateral possibility for hedgies..

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:59 | 996528 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Shorter half-lives are very energetic.  That means we'll have flurries of troll posts before they burn out. - Ned

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 11:25 | 996870 tmosley
tmosley's picture

God I love scientific analogies.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:33 | 995155 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

dont see much of an UP move from here...........may be 36 dollar would be good SELL ZONE

 

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:37 | 995169 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

sell it now, it's going back to 5

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:50 | 995213 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I was thinking 4.95743  That's what my crystal ball says. But what does Meth Man see in his crystal meth pipe? That's what I wanna know! Hey! Did you hear he drives a Ferrari??

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:11 | 995263 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Ya, I heard that.  It's that new "Ferrari Driver" on Xbox-360.

What a rush.  Get to choose your own color and all....

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:35 | 995157 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

This, (Gaddafi is dead), smells of yet ANOTHER false rumor planted by the Behavioral Finance crowd, one ready to be acted on by the Counterparty Risk Management Group, PPT, Gold Cartel etc.

If history is any lesson, this rumor will fade and no one will say anything about how this happens over and over. No matter, the damage was done for the day to gold and silver.

With all the coverage the news networks have given the Libyan situation, there is ZERO coverage of that rumor on CNN, MSNBC, or Fox.

It is almost beyond comprehension that The Gold Cartel and PPT can resort to these false rumor tactics and they not gain some market commentary traction.

This is something that happens two or three times a year of late.

Why is it that only those of us who live on Planet GATA can call a spade a spade?

Course what should any of us expect from the goofy Muppets on CNBC, etc?

What this does reveal is The Gold Cartel are a bunch of cornered rats, desperate rats ... that they have to resort to such childish nonsense.

So be it! They are just giving new buyers an opportunity to accummulate physical gold and silver on the cheap which will further put the bums behind the 8 Ball down the road.

There is no doubt in my mind anymore The Gold Cartel is using the shares as a signal to other traders to what they are going to do with gold and silver in the very short term.

Today's joke made that conclusive.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:08 | 995256 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

What this does reveal is The Gold Cartel are a bunch of cornered rats, desperate rats ... that they have to resort to such childish nonsense.

 

Childish is a bit too conservative.  More like satanic, crude, devilish, white-collar financial whores.  Blythe is the leader of the cult.

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:39 | 995351 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

The BFs (Behavioral Finance crowd) have 3 methods

- the Ken-Lay (as in "we'll just get dictator X ken-laid.)

- The sudden Coma ("we'll get X sudden-comafied")

- and now, the dictator is dead. ("we'll pull the dead-switch on this fucker, and create a new country, or two, out of the eastern oil rich region")

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:49 | 995709 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"This, (Gaddafi is dead), smells of yet ANOTHER false rumor planted by the Behavioral Finance crowd,"

Was he killed by Osama Bin Laden?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:37 | 995163 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Is Goldman using derivatives to pump the shit out of the EUR to hit their target to unwind?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:40 | 995171 mynhair
mynhair's picture

No need to use derivatives - they have OweBama.

EUR isn't being pumped; it's the $ tanking.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:29 | 995505 Bob Sponge
Bob Sponge's picture

OweBama - the perfect nickname!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:37 | 995165 mynhair
mynhair's picture

"difficult to source"

Be still my heart.  Need more minor miners.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:56 | 995232 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Nope! Earlier today Meth Man made a clear case, you can just dig it up for $5/oz in your backyard. He drives a Ferrari AND sleeps in a Beach House!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:09 | 995258 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Shoot, only have deep-water waterfront and a 450SL, that ethanol killed.

I must be slacking.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:51 | 995711 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"

Shoot, only have deep-water waterfront and a 450SL, that ethanol killed.

I must be slacking.

"

Try having only an old Dodge truck and a double-wide.  On acreage in rural Texas.  (all paid for, BTW).

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:37 | 995167 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Look around you, shortages and rumors of shortages. The middle east(and oil) is still a firestorm waiting to happen, This dip is a blessing. Dont run over Blythe when you back the truck up. P.S. Do you know your local coin guy? Good folks who have product.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:35 | 995804 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1400 and + $32.00 re knowing local coin guy.  One of the best kinds of people to know.

Nasty looking Blythe would probably just make my truck's paint corrode, so I wil stay far away.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:39 | 995176 bigking12345
bigking12345's picture

everything is a lie, everything a scam. The S&P's were done, breaking the lows on the day and just at 3 they reversed on the BS lie that kaddaffi is dead and liz clayman on fox business sounded like she was cumming as the market rallied. Noboy knows the truth behind wht is going on in ME. And the lies are better than the truth just like people eithe believe we landed on the moon, 1 guy shot JFK and 9-11 was an inside job. The truth is whatever the liars can spread the best.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:40 | 995178 walküre
walküre's picture

Even the most successful trader will have a hard time selling silver at this level and exchange for what?

What is there that is more attractive and guarantees equal long term value than either gold or silver (aside from other pms in the family)?

Bonds? Government issued paper that gets flipped between the treasury and a central bank paid for with newly printed paper cash?

Bank stocks? Buy bank stocks at their all time high after the royal flush and with that, absorb their risk and their stinking balance sheets?

Tell me.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:42 | 995182 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Flour and coffee, and a bottle of single malt here and there.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:02 | 995587 Acidtest Dummy
Acidtest Dummy's picture

I don't think alcohol will be a good investment if SHTF, sure a supply of your favorite drink is important, but Iowa stands ready to deliver millions of a gallons of ethanol @^$3-4 per gal. Use it any way you want, but fueling your car with it is a perfect waste of food.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:45 | 995190 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

+1 this exact. where the hell are you going to put the proceeds? The only thing i'd look at replacing silver with is,.... PALLADIUM! especially after this huge price drop....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:45 | 995192 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Finally, an opening:

Iridium, bitchez!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:11 | 995217 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Tantalum & Niobium... female canines!

REEs... rare earth elements

http://www.commerceresources.com/s/Home.asp

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:53 | 995223 Harmonious_Diss...
Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:12 | 995262 mynhair
mynhair's picture

AVL!  Covers all those other minor elements.

Still on sale in the Lobby.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:42 | 995824 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Palladium is REAL VOLATILE.  I have a token 10 oz that I bought an at average of say $500 oz.  Pd does have interesting properties that might work out very well for it if fuel cell technology works out (Pd can hold 900 x its volume of hydrogen, and palladium is impermeable to all gases except hydrogen).

Ol' JonNadler's kitco.com has nice easy to use charts showing prices of Pd over the years.

Pd is also kind of hard to get.  They guy I got my Pd Maples from now only sells it in 100 oz Russian bars.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:49 | 995209 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

US Department of Agriculture:  Food prices set to surge in 2011.  I guess The Ben Bernanke will try to come up with a spin job for this...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110224/wl_canada_nm/canada_us_usda_forum_fo...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:50 | 995216 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Snow did it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:03 | 995249 Misean
Misean's picture

From "Snow Job" Ben?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:08 | 995260 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Yup!! Doctor Benji Zhivago! It's SNOWING!!!  LOL!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAWrXTn5Www

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:43 | 995361 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Wonder how was that SURGE for the Ags yesterday?.

And we're talking Slvr dropping?

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:55 | 995229 Scottj88
Scottj88's picture

Silver miners are a good way to leverage yourself to rising prices.  100%'s of percent for the right companies (as in GPL being up 500% in the last 6 months and plenty of room to go)...

http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/

--

Buy physical silver first...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:59 | 995236 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Buy Food/Ammo FIRST!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:04 | 995250 Comanche
Comanche's picture

This is solid reporting.  Fine job.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:06 | 995252 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Solid support around $30+/- 0.10.  Consider that a gift with the 25 DMA again crossing above the 50 DMA.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:12 | 995268 RED BARRON
RED BARRON's picture

Jim Steele has been a metals analyst with the biggest firms on Wall Street since 1978.  He said 6 days ago on cnbc (video is googleable) when interviewed by Maria Bartiroma that silver would average 26 this year.

Bill O'neal was interviewed by cnbc over 500 times since 1978 about gold and silver when he was with Mother Merrill and other firms.  See what he thinks.  These people have excellent track records; I have worked near them and had drinks with them since 1978.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:26 | 995292 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Man...

And I thought my friends were bad.

You need to get some new homeys.

Maria... CNBS... ???

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:03 | 995310 luk427
luk427's picture

Why would I listen to a guy who works for HSBC, their the ones with a large short position on silver.Fuck him.JP Morgan also said to get out oil a few weeks ago ,its going down.I'd rather listen to a self made billionaire like Sprott.   http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-Sees-Oil-Notable-bloomberg-2452837333.html?x=0

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:58 | 995408 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That's called name dropping and it's frowned upon in polite circles.

Tell us about hanging around with truck drivers and waitresses.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:09 | 995446 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Waitresses give the best pets......

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:22 | 995485 dumpster
dumpster's picture
by RED BARRON
on Thu, 02/24/2011 - 19:12
#995268

you had drinks with these guys .. well the stink still shows

so he said 26  we will see

these track record have been broken to the upside many times

the only track they run on is a broken record of fumes and crib sheet notes to appear on fake investment news ,

clown to the right clowns to the left

and the RB is rolling in the back yard sand pits .. trolling sand and spit

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:18 | 995284 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

if it's correct what Clark is saying, i'll have a glass of champagne in stead of a beer.

I wish Blythe was my sister

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:53 | 995393 luk427
luk427's picture

Joe Dirt had a sister.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDKX1-_vQYw

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:41 | 995358 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Never tired of pimping silver/gold, eh guys!?!

Well, well, soon yall be very sad, if in paper crap, but yall in physical will be

happy, cuz another buyin opportunity will present itself!

Give it a little! Then load up, there is enough out there for everyone!

Silver shortage MY ASS!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:10 | 995450 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Sorry to hear your ass is short.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:32 | 995671 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No shortage?  Find me COMEX deliverable bars.  I am in desperate need, and can find NONE, ANYWHERE.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 03:21 | 996240 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

Try these guys.

As of tonight they have some.

http://golddealer.com/bullionpage.html#AG10

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:43 | 995360 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Yee ha...!.......I BTFD,and it felt good.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 20:56 | 995402 connda
connda's picture

BTFD! ;)

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:10 | 995455 oygevalt
oygevalt's picture

OT, but actually not really, as it pertains to the ever more curious market structure: did anyone else notice today, prior to the swan dive, that while SPX cash was rising, ES was falling?  Thoughts on how this might legitimately be?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:20 | 995714 oygevalt
oygevalt's picture

Oh, a junk - is there somebody who would like to ascribe today's market action to the Rothschilds?  Please, bring it on.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:26 | 995498 reTARD
reTARD's picture

I have also been accumulating PSLV. However, before PSLV I had been buying SIVR. Is it worth rebalancing completely out of SIVR to PSLV?

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:28 | 995502 Payable on Death
Payable on Death's picture

I have about 1.5% of net worth in physical gold and silver--1 oz., 20 oz., & 100 oz. units. Also have some ETFs and stocks focused in PMs. I consider these financial hedges, not a solution for the apocalypse. I expect my physical units will be too valuable to trade for daily survival items.

Question: Would it make sense to acquire current US coinage for that (survival) circumstance? Are they a commodity play? Yes, the face value is denominated in units equated to fiat paper, but could they decouple?

Does this help? http://www.coinflation.com/

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:21 | 995641 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Some people have been moving out of ETFs because there is good evidence they are leveraged 100:1 and there is no real PM to back them. Play them well or you may get screwed.

Miners are good, but the government can impose draconian taxes on their profits like Australia just tried to do (40%!).

A lot of planners are recommending 5-8% of assets in PM these days. Probably more if you read ZH and are inclined to think things are far worse than the public is led to believe. And you would tend to have more physical metal in your possession because of the risk of apparent fraud and the ETFs.

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:00 | 995864 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Payable, here are my thoughts:

1)  At 1.5% in PMs you are already ahead of most Americans

2)  Even mainstream money managers say it's OK to have 5% or more in PMs

3)  I do not like ETFs or miners, too many risks, physical only

4)  Consider adding food, guns & ammo as well as prescription meds for TSHTF

5)  I separate my nickels, have almost 3 x 1 liter bottles full

 

EDIT:

6)  The more wealth you have, the more gold you should buy (%), you know, like the Rothschilds...

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 21:51 | 995561 BullionBoys
BullionBoys's picture

We sell 1000 oz bars, LBMA, allocated, segregated,unencumbered,insured storage available.

We buy them for High Net Worth clients everyday. WE offer a service for the retail investors that is equivalent to what is offered institutional investors.

If interested let me know.

 

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:32 | 995669 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Where is your web site? Where is your store located at?

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:13 | 1002248 BullionBoys
BullionBoys's picture

I am a dealer in Canada, also a wholesaler foe Bullion Mutual Fund company in Canada....No store...1000oz bars are minimum bars I do....

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:33 | 995678 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Find me some COMEX deliverable bars.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:42 | 995978 Slewburger
Fri, 02/25/2011 - 11:27 | 996877 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm in heaven.  Not one but TWO deliverable bars!

Will check on the other link when they open.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 18:12 | 1002244 BullionBoys
BullionBoys's picture

Why Comex bars?...I can get you 1000 OZ LBMA bars delivered or stored.....I am 100% seious

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:49 | 995708 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

I'm sorry but I see NO benefit to owning bars, gold or silver, if it becomes a barter system with PM's people will buy using silver dimes, quarters, 1/2s and $1's, trying to "spend" a 100 oz. bar of silver won't work.  Same with Gold, if you buy 1 oz. coins for the purpose of replacing paper money, a 1 oz. coin will be like having a $1500 - $1900 bill, how often do you spend $1500 at a time, except for a car, computer, etc.  It's silver coins that will be the easiest to negotiate if things get as bad as seems possible.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:11 | 995900 Dont Touch My J...
Dont Touch My Junk Silver's picture

Started with bullion and when I had enough I moved to junk silver. It gives you the most flexibility

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:00 | 995582 Cocomaan
Cocomaan's picture

After reading Zero Hedge for awhile, about a month ago I went and bought silver at my a reputable local coin shop. Haven't looked back since. After reading this post, I'm going to go out and buy a little more tomorrow.

 

BTFD.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:06 | 995600 DaisyMae
DaisyMae's picture

All the talk and whining about silver price manipulation, is much ado about nothing.  Force the banks hands...gang up on a preselected month and take delivery.  In this age it is not that hard to organize a group against a common seemingly insurmountable obstacle....North Africa??  Unless you get mobilized and motivated to actually do something, whining doesn't get you very far.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 22:13 | 995615 reTARD
reTARD's picture

I convert cash to silver whenever I can. I even try to use my JPM credit card to buy silver whenever possible. Precious metals are my money!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:01 | 995731 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Homework time folks.

I have a co-worker that missed my directions to buy in at $18.  I feel a correction (short lived though) is possible.

Can anyone give me a good time frame where I can tell this person to hurry and BTFD?  I need more than just a WAG or gut feeling.  How about some real postulation backed by past performance or not-so-obvious insight?  I told this person that right around option expiry time is good, but I haven't seen a solid enough dip to buy lately!

My gut feeling is a rapid retrenchment to $26-$28 to shake silver loose from weak hands (to get physical for delivery to China for repayment) and then a parabolic skyrocket.

I could be wrong though.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 01:41 | 996101 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

It really depends what he is buying for, meaning is he trading for a quick gain, if so buy SLV not physical, if he's buying as most here are than even if he buys at $32 and it dips to $26-$28 it will not matter in 12-18 months. What I used to tell clients is to buy 1/2 their posn. now and the other 1/2 if / when it dips.  So if he's going to invest $10k let him buy $5k now and the other $5k if it dips to $28, if it doesn't dip than just buy the other 1/2.  Personally, i see $36.50 before a sell-off to $32, than a rally to $45-$48 by year-end and ~$75 by year-end 2012

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 23:51 | 995847 Whalers
Whalers's picture

You guys need to take economics 101 again.  You think markets wait till inventories are empty then skyrocket?  If silver inventories were at zero then the price would be 1000 per ounce. 

Its funny how many sellers there was today wasn't it?  I wonder if zero hedge is being compensated for pushing silver so much?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:03 | 995881 augmister
augmister's picture

Obama and crew are going to buy all of your PMs...by order of the Gubermint.  For pennies .   Just love the folks who PRAY they will be immune to the economic holicost.. NOT. 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 02:17 | 996152 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

well, OBAMA & CREW may be buying, but, I'm NOT SELLING !

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:27 | 995937 Johnk
Johnk's picture

http://tulving.com/

Not an ad, a recommendation.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:27 | 995943 mt paul
mt paul's picture

buy the freakin dips

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:29 | 995951 agNau
agNau's picture

The margin requirement rise is interesting to me. Today I believe it was the WTC that was slapped. Was it a reflex knee jerk from the silver?
I think what is about to happen is NO reaction .....OR maybe buying on the announcement of the hike in Margin.
Think about it. Pavlov's dog learned after a short stretch.
They say a positive reinforcement is better than a negative one. These are very negative!
No worky much longer IMO.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:38 | 995968 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

The Hunts are getting out now!

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:39 | 995970 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

shortage for big orders

no shortage for elmer fudds buying 2 ounces to 100 ounces.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:40 | 995973 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

shortage for big orders

no shortage for elmer fudds buying 2 ounces to 100 ounces.

Actually 100 ounces bars just sold outr at mocatta

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:40 | 995974 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

shortage for big orders

no shortage for elmer fudds buying 2 ounces to 100 ounces.

Actually 100 ounces bars just sold outr at mocatta

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:42 | 995979 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

Are those iron laced silver bars?

 

 

Make sure you use a Powerful Magnet on the coins and Bars. 

Pure silver will not be attracted at all.

 

Cheers and good luck.

PS Keep that magnet away from your cell phone/wallet/computer etc. They'll delete it all.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 00:52 | 996008 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

I'm certain those ol'Wil E. COMEX traders are all bringing out the silver they took delivery on and put away in disgust when it was trading for a lowly $3.30'ish per ounce only a handful of years ago.  Trading at 10 times more presently. LOL LOL LOL

 

Rumor had it some made coffee tables out of silver and others used the silver bars as doorstops.

 

How times have changed. LOL

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 01:13 | 996037 koot
koot's picture

The main difference between gold and silver is, Silver is more of an investment than insurance whereas gold is more an insurance than an investment.  Both give investment and insurance but there is a distinction few realize until it happens.  Concentration of money is the factor so any situation where concentration of recognizable money is primary, gold trumps silver.  Case example, during and shortly after the fall of Saigon in 1975 there thousands of people seeking to escape or be killed.  Escape was either by air or sea and it required payment to save ones and family lives.  Many escaped going boat to boat at sea and paying passage in gold.  Silver would not work because it was to heavy and more difficult to hide as concentrated money. In 1979 a Vietnamese who had made it to America still had some Kim thanh gold foil bars which he sold to me because he needed money to start a cleaning business.  The thin foil type bars had pin holes in them where the bars had been hid in the lining of coats for concelement.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 01:33 | 996086 celticgold
celticgold's picture

bitch tits gettin slapped around ....again

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 03:14 | 996230 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Great interview. Thanks.

 

1/3 of portfolio in PMs...makes alot of sense.

I'll put another 1/3 into oil (USO).

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 03:27 | 996252 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

Uh...I have a question regarding the article.

 

In it 'he' says that he does not think the Hunts trying to corner the market caused it to rise.

If that is true, then what did cause it to rise and more importantly, what caused it to fall back down?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 04:46 | 996301 JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_52Wdx5Rz8L0/SPVzsOHpoPI/AAAAAAAAAEY/uSV3GCYgPe...

If investment and industrial demand stays strong it's going to be very hard to keep the price down.

The only conditions I can see the price dropping would be from new discoveries, new mines, increased mining production and possibly new cost effective methods of recovering scrap silver from landfill and e-recycling.

But all that takes time and money to do, hence I think the price has to rise and ratio drop back to historical norms to make any of that worth while doing.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:50 | 996513 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Both physical gold and silver have been moving to strong hands over the last few years as a core position against SHTF.

Paper PM's are for quick trades by investors and manipulation by central banks and bullion banks.

Eventually the tide will go out.

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