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What's Next For The Critical US-Pakistan Relationship?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Stratfor

Questions of Pakistani Cooperation In bin Ladin Strike

U.S. President Barack Obama announced late May 1 that al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is dead and that the body of the jihadist leader is in U.S. custody. Obama said bin Laden was killed in a firefight with U.S. special operations forces in Abbottabad, about 56 kilometers (35 miles) north of Islamabad. Prior to Obama’s announcement, Pakistani intelligence officials were leaking to U.S. media that their assets were involved in the killing of bin Laden. Obama said, “Over the years, I’ve repeatedly made clear that we would take action within Pakistan if we knew where bin Laden was. That is what we’ve done. But it’s important to note that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound where he was hiding.” Obama said he had called Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and that his team had also spoken to their counterparts. He said Islamabad agreed it is “a good and historic day for both of our nations and going forward its essential for Pakistan to join us in the fight against al Qaeda and its affiliates.”

The detailed version of what led to the hit and the extent of U.S.-Pakistani cooperation in the strike is not yet publicly known, but reports so far claim that bin laden and his son were hiding in a massive compound with heavy security and no communications access when they were attacked. Two key questions thus emerge. How long was the Pakistani government and military-security apparatus aware of bin Laden’s refuge deep in Pakistani territory? Did the United States withhold information from Pakistan until the hit was executed, fearing the operation would be compromised?

Major strains in the U.S.-Pakistani relationship have rested on the fact that the United States is extraordinarily dependent on Pakistan for intelligence on al Qaeda and Taliban targets and that Pakistan in turn relies on that dependency to manage its relationship with the United States. Following the Raymond Davis affair, U.S.-Pakistani relations have been at a particularly low point as the United States has faced increasing urgency in trying to shape an exit strategy from the war in Afghanistan and has encountered significant hurdles in eliciting Pakistani cooperation against high-value targets.

Now that the United States has a critical political victory with which to move forward with an exit from the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan now faces the strategic dilemma of how to maintain the long-term support of its major external power patron in Washington.

 

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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:27 | 1228821 Mongo
Mongo's picture

He was killed and 4hrs later buried at sea. What-a-farce really.

 

Either

A. He was already dead and just put in sea from the freezer.

or

B. He was dead & buried long time ago.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:32 | 1228851 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

The US offered his body to SA and they said HELL NO..

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:35 | 1228854 cossack55
cossack55's picture

IMHO, the gubment has been holding this card for about 6 years. The question is, why now. I am anticipating some seriously bad news within the next 72 hours. Probably a sweet false flag op.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:27 | 1228823 Ralphie
Ralphie's picture

Probable cause to invade Pakistan?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:29 | 1228833 sabra1
sabra1's picture

if he was buried at sea, and his body ends off the eastern coast of japan, would the radiated water bring him back to life, make him unkillable, and twice as pissed off?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1229146 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

look, up in the sky. it's bin'zilla, bin'zilla

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:32 | 1228837 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

"Did the United States withhold information from Pakistan until the hit was executed, fearing the operation would be compromised?"

You can bet your ass they withheld Information....

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:34 | 1228849 speconomist
speconomist's picture

U.S. President Barack Hussein Obama announced late May 1 that ...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:34 | 1228852 jtaskinen
jtaskinen's picture

Just would like to get your idea, maybe you understand better...

Last weel Wikileaks: If Osama killed, nuke will go off in Europe (hope not in Finland)

Then Obama birth certificate, which was pretty much immediately said to be fake

Now Osama dead and body dumped into sea, did someone take DNA to verify identity, face was in a bad shape

What next?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:40 | 1228859 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Remember the story of the body in a US Army major's uniform washed up in France in early 1944 with fake copies of Operation Overlord.  Things that make you go Hhhhmmmmm.......

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:49 | 1228886 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'm so surprised ZH reader's didn't hear that Obama was at Camp David yesterday.

http://whitehouse.gov1.info/camp-david/obama-bush-camp-david.jpg

See how easy it is to fudge the truth? LOL

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:53 | 1228902 TexDenim
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The UBL mansion was a kilometer from the "West Point of Pakistan" the nation's most prestigious military academy.

Give me a break! Those military yoyos knew where Osama was, and they were protecting him. It's a miracle we got him in spite of the Paks.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:57 | 1228920 Broomer
Broomer's picture

I feel the need to communicate you, the photography of Bin Laden's corpse is fake.

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/05/02/6568249-we-think-that-bi...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 08:58 | 1228926 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

This is a very positive development. 

The "give and take" with Pakistan is swinging to the "take".  Clearly the political environment has shifted and any reaction by the Taliban will result in follow-up exercises that cleanse some Pakistani corruption.

What has always amazed me was Pakistan and India came from similar backgrounds and history.  Since their separation, Pakistan has descended into the morass capital of the world.  They have yet to provide anything of true value to the world.

Going forward, Pakistan has fewer friends.  That is a postive development.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:24 | 1229758 redarrow
redarrow's picture

Spot on. Whereas India continues to execute and bring stability to that part of the world. All that Pakistan has been is nothing short of a bad example. What the world next needs to do to continue in the interests of global peace is install a UN controlled government in Pak and take the top 10000 military officers and the intelligence arm in that nation and weed out the bad elements making sure they are never again able to cause harm the civilized. For starters the mullahs and the religious education need to be stopped, and more efforts should be put in towards poverty alleviation and lowering the birth rate there.

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 09:04 | 1228958 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the attempts at creating distractions thru media; royal wedding, now OBL killed, fake BC,, have epic fail written on them

too many have been raped by the bankers and crony pols and are living on food stamps and UE..

inflation hitting gasoline and food and spilling over into consumer items..

did not even watch any of the above my bet millions more ignored it all.

the mood in the USA is dark this feeble attempts at distractions shows the elite are loosing more of us each day

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 09:02 | 1228964 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

A bunch of peasants and grasping feudals... India's just gangsters all the way through ...politics at its most pure

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:12 | 1229289 goldm3mb3r
goldm3mb3r's picture

The West should continue bombing people until they see sense.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:19 | 1229347 falak pema
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There is a deep divide within the military establishment that virtually runs Pakistan since sixty years, since 1956, when US military aid first began. This aid was engineered expressly to ensure breakdown of peace talks in Delhi between Pak-India governments then involved in fruitful peace talks in relation to two major issues subsequent to the bloody partition of the country after british withdrawal in 1947. Prime minister Nehru of India was eager to sign a detente treaty to find a lasting compromise on two major issues : Kashmir's independence/autonomy status and the Indus water agreement to determine the split at source of this vital potable water source feeding both Pak's Indus and India's Ganges rivers, originating high up in the Indian Himalayas. Both points were major strategic issues fueling international tensions and patriotic sentiment. The proposal of US aid to Pak and its immediate acceptance was seen as an obvious act of belligerance by the part of Pak towards India, by Nehru. The detente talks were immediately called off and it started a military stand-off between the two countries that is now a moot issue after two military wars (1965 and 1969) which empoisons the region as both countries now have nuclear capabilities. The fundamentalist turn that Pak has taken since the Afghan-Soviet war, under CIA encouragement and then increasingly repressive subsequent disapproval, that has left its bloody aftermath leading up to the events of yesterday, now confirm that the USA will be tempted to become a permanent watch-dog in the region. As China and India now are its commercial allies today but its possible strategic enemies tomorrow. Divide and rule will always be the rule of the game amongst global players of "the great game", of which the USA will always want to be a part as the biggest nuclear and military player in the world.

Pak role as regional bogey man who gets its ass kicked if he is not in line, by one or the other party, is now preordained by this strategic confrontation between the three global giant nations of tomorrow. 

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