This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The "fat pitch" that was looking
good has fizzled into a stinky, foul ball. In all likelihood, we are looking at
a bear market.
{to see larger images click on charts}
- advertisements -
Contact Information:
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Suggested Reading:
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
It's a "Shit-ball". 'And I sure hope some fucker hits it soon.
Regards.
Lots of respect for Mr. Lerner. One of the few objective commentators, not a dogmatic nerd. Look he can even admit he had a losing trade and exit it, a rare feat among internet investing advisors.
On May 4th I called the end of the March 2009 bear market rally.
The proprietary indicators I use in my technical analysis can identify trend changes before they occur.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about
A bear market in an election year is not going to happen. A new rally will start in late Aug/Sept and we will see 1200+ by election day. The big money sold in May and went away to Cape Cod. How's that for a non technical analysis. Buy Jan 2011 calls on oversold crashes this summer and you will make money by election day. BTW, 80 million people are born each year on this planet. A small group of Companies have the right to feed/ supply the 7 billion people on earth which ensure a steady growth in earnings and higher equity prices as long as Govt supplies liquidity.
Well, that seems to be true concerning presidential elections, however I'm not sure whether that applies to senate elections. But when QE2 arrives we all have to be ready for a huge counter move up.
September will be dramatic, I'll grant you that.
Bear as in: the "market" is less valuable than horse manure?
Tech analysis is a way to look for places to buy abd sell. fundamentals help, but in these markets in today's conditions, ya' got to go with your gut. Read, read read, watch the morons on CNBC, and let your gut tell you what to do. If you don't have the "feel" go to Las Vegas...........
I thought technical analysis was a way to predict "animal spirits" and the
herd mentality that goes along with it. People allegedly move in waves.
Question: How is it that in a market that's clearly manipulated by assholes
with hft dominance over the natural pricing mechanisms that ANYONE still
believes there are any bona fide "animal spirits" left in the markets?
Doesn't technical analysis bow to bugging the phones (and emails) of the assholes
doing this?
Well the 1040 was a key support, and it broke. Look out below. TA is pseudo science, but it works. Maybe a self fulfilling prophecy related to herd mentality, I dont know.
You nailed it.
If the crowd used astrology in the same way, it too would have predictive value.
Less a science (pseudo or otherwise) and more an art in my opinion. It can help you find potential positions with better odds of moving in your favor, but its effectiveness has to be muted when the herd is small and silicon- rather than carbon-based.
technical analysis works if you put the desired effect ahead of the technical signal. a fund manager levitating a stock with a modest float will put his buy orders to work at the precious moments, the 50/200 ma lines, 50% retracements, to paint the tape. a stock being juggled by these guys has such a perfect chart you wonder how could anyone ever sell it? during the bull run of the 90's the big institutions were in collusion, they all call each other and set up block trades, what the hell is that? they would set up the pullbacks on small volume and then after a key technical level was broken, wham, they all got into the pool. the big institutions like round numbers, if you see Dow 9200 as critical support they buy in at 9000. Let the chumps and momentum players get stopped out first. you tihnk they're making money now? now only the chumps trade off the charts, that big brokers have pretty much closed all their tech analysis departments.
someone was pointing out the rising wedge in Apple, and i just laugh. that last two major market rallies are built on rising wedges, and all manner of broken bear market signals. to short Apple you just have to believe in the real world its worth half what it is trading for now.
Yep the "it always bounces back" crowd are standing bags in hand, staring hopefully down the cliff the market just slipped over waiting for the 50 percent fib retracement that never comes.
They will all happily settle for a 1040 backtest if and when it happens, thus making 1040 an air tight resistance.
Pretty soon they can jam the euro up to 1.50 and the demoralized bulls wont care.
Pick your poison Fed, hyperinflation or depression, the having the cake and eating it too days are about over.
My feeling is the QE2.0 offer the taxpayers cant refuse and sneaky new taxes to help us have less cash to hoard are in the planning stages, but this time they only get a 6 month melt up for the trillions. Diminishing returns first then colossal failure that each party will blame on the other.
It was a perfect Phil Niekro knuckle ball that only looked "fat," but was a strike all the way..
CNBS is a great laugh lately as the "crew" try to explain away why the market happened to go down today when it should only go up! Clueless to the end.
Their job description is to be paid propagandists, and shills for the Wall Street Banks who would have their heads if they spoke the truth about any of this. Sell, sell, sell is what they do so you buy, buy, buy.
Round and round she goes, and where she stops... Ah, who cares.
I got my garden, my ammo, and my gold. All set!
Pass the popcorn...
Don't forget the underground bunker and six year supply of canned ham!
Phzzzzt!
I'll also be calling in to CNBC and ask for an "explanation" as to why Ford rally's 5% after they just gave away 4 billion? Like to see Liesman answer that, and then I would like to see Erin-I-blow-my-boss Burnett yell at someone who also thinks it's complete nonsense.
>>Erin-I-blow-my-boss Burnett<<
Can you supply a video link?
I've noticed that inverted head and shoulders in the QQQQs aswell, and frankly, it scares the shit out of me! However, there was a similar inverted head and shoulders pattern there between 2001-2004 that didn't lead to anything substantial. The bots, the we-invest-on-hope crowd, the "market always goes up" "long term" investors who got lucky because of low interest rates (*cough* Buffett) shall be beaten this time. In no way can this keynesian bubble survive any longer. PS. Also look at the soon to be dead american super consumer (bubble) by clicking up a ten year weekly chart in AAPL.
More like the Dow circa April 1930 in SPY than inverted head and shoulders in QQQQ...
Your hypothesis looks correct Sir!
buy, buy, buy.....
Please do sucker, I need to sell.
we'll be back to 6000 on the DJIA, but the way we get there will surprise a lot of people, in the shortest possible amount of time. there are a lot of reasons why they want to revalue the market, for one thing it would hold interest rates down indefinitely. secondly it would prevent the funds from shorting the market, and transferring the losses to their balance sheets. The thing that worries them most is the damage to the Fed's balance sheet, all that MBS, but they will figure out a way to transfer that over to Treasury,and add it onto the deficit. 3000 points in 3 days, or something like that. The bears in this market have momentum players, and the only way to beat them is to remove any chance to profits from the markets losses.
Your concern about MBS is mostly nonsense. MBS comes from Fannie and Freddie. Fannie and Freddie is guarenteed by the US Treasury regardless of the buyer. Its the same as Treasury notes, except that periodically the Treasury announces that they had to inject so many 100 Billion to cover Fannie and Freddie losses. They would do that regardless of who was holding Fannie and Freddie debt.
except its all on the Feds balance sheet, but i agree with you that doesn't mean anything, Treasury will backstop that action.
"Fed balance sheet" is a myth. Why would they keep track?
I too think we will re-test the lows. I'm also looking for a large gap down - not necessarily as dramatic, but I think there are a lot of nervous longs that have one eye on the exit (hoping they can beat everyone else out the door). A 'Jason Bourne market' was a quote I heard on this site. A flash-crash without the snap-back.
Followed by QEII.