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With option expiration tomorrow, the market could be set for some peculiar action over the next 48 hours. But first, your scheduled afternoon market ramp.
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Resistance is futile.
When they cause crude to spike through $100 they will be happy.
If there's one thing that I've learned since March, it's that they are never happy (just greedy)....
Perhaps CNBC willl argue that $100 crude is bullish, a sign of economic recovery!
Have a small holding of RWM slightly below purchase price at present, looking to really ramp into it at the first sniff of a sell-off
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Looks like the Socgen smile to me...
The one thing I don't get is why gold isn't enjoying the USD pummel-fest?
checkout the latest COT report. The big boys are are seriously short gold
Cool... As long as there's a reason! I'm all for big boys booking their profits regardless of what the market is doing! (snark)
yeah agreed... COTs look awful. I actually traded in some coins for cash on Tuesday in anticipation of a liquidation event between now and the Fall. Plus its always good to have cash on hand. Definitely though once the dollar cracks gold will be the only place to hide.
they have one week to hit gold. If they fail it trades 1000 very, very quickly. Check out TIP and overlay a gold chart.
Yeh, gold will go to hell all right, but will you be able to recover anything but a promise after it does.
If you hold the physical you will
I think the game is up for Gld, Stock Market, short dollar, and Inflationist.
I need the coins as shortly I will be travelling through South America. . . Easy to carry and conceal. :)
The bid/ask spreads don't seem to be a problem here in DC, depending on who you know and where you sell. According to my friend in Brooklyn , they are not a problem in NYC either -- but you need to find the Chinatown gold dealers -- from what I understand, they are relatively easy to haggle with. Anyway yeah I mean if you haven't traded coins before, I agree, coin dealers are a total ripoff. Especially ones that offer below spot for your gold, or charge more than 1-3% over spot for ask.
I called one currency dealer the other day and he offered $875 for a Maple (spot was $942). I burst out laughing and told him I could sell it for spot, which I did later that day. So I think it sort of depends on where you live. Being here just outside DC, there is a high demand for gold among the upper and middle-class Beltway types. I think they know something unpleasant is about to hit the rotating blades.
Isn't it much easier to call and cancle an ATM card when your robbed then get back your 'easily concealed' gold coins? (I recently spent six months trecking about Central America and a gringo carrying gold coins would be like hitting the jackpot to all the hustlers down there!)
This is not my first time around the block. I used to live in the DC ghetto and I've dealt with ppl treatening me with knives, swindlers, drug dealers, criminals, prostitutes, crackheads, etc. So I'm not too concerned, I'm pretty street smart. There is also the real possibility of bank runs and 'holidays' over the next few months so that ATM card may simply stop working.
LOL..Im more afraid of Wall Street bankers than street urchins...
The Chinese will, however, vigorously defend gold, as it now comprises a reasonably large portion of their safety net. This is not to say that they've been able to liquidate the entire $2 trillion worth of U.S. Treasuries, but suffice it to say that gold and other commodities will help them absorb an eventual U.S. Dollar collapse.
If that's the only thing you don't get, your in fine shape.
Let hope this never turns into a run away train.
Down 8 cents is Pummeled?
It's down 30 cents since 9:30... I guess it depends when you start the clock...
Ok, so 30 cents or 0.38% is pummeled? Sarcastic shorts over the last 165 days have been pummeled.
USD has gotten pummeled over the last 2 days and has traded down in pretty much a straight line today... 0.38 pct move in currencies is not nothing... and i'm glad to know that only the "scarcastic shorts" have been pummeled over the last 165 days while the "well-mannered and clean spoken" shorts haven't been...
now it is pammeled...
Double bottom?
That giant sucking sound you just heard is the American standard of living going down another notch.... brought to you from out fine friends at the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Depratment of Treasury.
I'm goinge to Ace Hardware and bying my pitchfork while my dollar is still worth something.
There might be a long line of Chinese ahead of you!
alternate view might say the mean will ADJUST to the price and not vica versa. Force is there and we know not when it will stop or change
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Get a pitchfork with a wood handle. That way you can burn it when JPM runs the price of HO up. Just a suggestion.
Federal Reserve notes make a nice toasty fire, too. Don't buy the pitchfork, but trade your $100 bills in for $1 bills. They will go further in the fireplace (and next to the toilet).
www.RevokeTheFed.com
The issue is not the dollar is pummeled due to the fear of greenback emission, but how low will it go?
Break 72, then down to 50? Anyone?
I may be naive, but I suspect Barack Obama wants the QE continues until he is reelected for his second term. If Bernanke wants to be reappointed, he must become a team player and takes order from the one who reappoint him. Otherwise, another guy named summers will be appointed and the deadly greenback remission will be released .
Dollar 50? No, how about 40?
If you believe Rosie on inflation/deflation, then the USD is going to have a huge rally (before the Fed totally panics)
I think the Fed going to give up and let the pieces fell where it may.
Uncle Ben needs to be reappointed first.
Why do you think BB extended TALF and let QE run for another month in the Treasury market?
Exactly. What is more, the owner's of the Fed, can't risk a change in leadership right now with the audit the fed bill in full force.
Only a return to Paul V. might quell the discontent.
It will go to zero if the last key support is broken. That will never happen because Ben will crash the stock market before it get close to the last support line.
Exactly.
Equity markets are the little bruised bitch of the debt markets, and they always will be.
If you really think about, the Fed is doing a masterful job at orchestrating this charade.
With all the talk about the USD getting "pummeled", the DXY is still managing to hang around in the high 70's.
Think about that. The Fed has managed to quitely go in and help "stick save" over $200 billion in Treasury auctions over the past month. And what has been the effects?
1. The 10-year Treasury has remained well below 4%.
2. The SPX has managed to stay roughly between 975 and 1025.
3. And the USD has managed to stay well above critical support of 72.
Of all the talk about the dollar getting beaten to a pulp on an intraday basis, it manages to rally while equity prices pull back and bonds do a mini rally... on selective days. There is an offset going on here that's controlling the burn.
The end result is that Fed/Treasury is managing to meet its fund raising objectives (so far) without causing a collapse in key markets.
It's really quite a remarkable juggling job.
~76, then bullish.
Did ya ever feel like Sergeant Hulka, in the movie 'Stripes', after they've crashed through the gate at the Czechoslovakia border in the ol' 6x6?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zez_iPLroA4
cue to 5:15
Its interesting dollar, gold and oil are down simultaneously for today. Stocks might follow next.
story on the street about paulson - the hedge fund - being bullish on the dollar - supposedly a $3B long bet
I see two scenarios unfold between now and 2010 or so.
a) massive USD rally during forced liquidation (I've heard some say 92!), followed by epic plunge.
b) tread water around 78, quiet slip to 72, followed by epic plunge.
On the chance of an epic plunge, what are your thoughts on foreign currencies that will hold up the best against a free-falling dollar. (I know gold. But what else?)
Yen and the Swiss Franc. Maybe the Loonie. Yen is pretty good during equity crash because (in the past anyways), it's inversely correlated to US equities.
Not so sure about the Euro. Euro is really complex. They have gold reserves marked to market regularly, but they also have as many problems as the U.S. if not more.
Thanks! That is my thinking on the Euro and Pound as well.
A few concerns for my fellow USD/Gold compadre:
Inflation is dead as an argument in my book right now, therefore resource commodity countries should not have an advantage (commodities tanking) and deflation and flight to safety is the dominant theme (safest currency = USD, and Gold) for the next year at least. Right now, if everyone sold GLD & SLV and bought physical metals in their posession, there would not be enough metal to go around - this is another version of fractional reserve banking. Foreign countries are all insisting on storing their precious metals in their own countries (no more games), and I have seen way too many commercials for cash 4 gold in the last three months. Get your metals before comex fails to deliver - then to the moon.
Maples, Philharmonics, etc.
Aussie Dollar.
There is mad deflation to be worked through, but somewhere out there is a big ol inflection point. Maxpain, everyone is right and everyone is wrong. But yeah on the other side of this inflection point is unquestionably higher interest rates and a lower dollar. Between now and 2010 is a reasonable timeframe but it could be longer if we can muster another several rounds of "unconventional" stimuli.
It's hard to say how long these things will take -- for example, to cause dollar liquidation problems, all it requires is just a small amount of oil trade to be conducted via bilateral currency swaps (for example, between Brazil and China), or for Japan to issue US bonds in yen (it looks like DPJ will win uncoming elections) , or a speculative attack from a FOREX rich nation (you know how much Putin loves us), a major bank failure, or FDIC undercapitalization etc. There's alot of spots where the dollar can fail.
I agree it could be longer than 2010 but my personal hunch is that we are sort of reaching the point of no return with this QE madness, this P/E madness, madness all around really...
I'm long UUP. It's hit its low and deflation will make it stronger. Once we pass the next downturn, the dollar will scale up due to (bs) positive growth.
I'm long UUP. It's hit its low and deflation will make it stronger. Once we pass the next downturn, the dollar will scale up due to (bs) positive growth.
there will be no quiet drop to 72 as that quiet drop will correspond to crude hitting around 90$ a barrel, which will put california gasoline retail about oh 3.75 and the rest of the nation at about 3.10 or so.
and that my friends will be the shock that breaks the illusion that the consumer is ok. America cannot sustain that right now. It can barely take gasoline at 2.65 national
That's a really good point.
What I like to do is watch the Gold to Oil ratio -- $GOLD:$WTIC on stockcharts. Looks like , for the time being anyway, oil will outperform gold (there was 50dma/200dma crossover in mid-June). Ultimately though, over the next 3 years, I think gold will outperform oil.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold:$wtic
Especially once we are forced to pay for oil in gold again.
$3 in CA
Just the Chinese investors dumping dollars to restore their account after their stock market pummelling.
Round and round we go, searching for the sausage. There is no sausage. Only lawn sausage.
It's the relative value of the USD vs other 'major' currencies that's being traded. Who is going to be strong under a dollar collapse scenario? You have to answer that to make it make sense.
If all take turns easing currency value down, then USD stays strong even though purchasing power erodes. Ergo, commodity inflation with strong (or at least not collapsed) dollar...just in steps or phase transition form.
More confusing is better, no?
you'll want to tune in to Bloomberg radio at 3pm -- a special guest will be "appearing"
http://www.bloomberg.com/streams/audio/radio_live.asx
http://twitter.com/Bloomberg_Radio
This is what a chart looks like at the beginning of changeover from the dollar as global reserve currency. It'll get beat up this much every day until it's dead.
The market will keep going up as the dollar dies.
Nice chart but can you make it bigger. Thanks.
No. I'm just saying that nothing is happening. Everyone has to dump dollars. You can't do carry trade to do anything with equities and you can't really sell bonds. Everyone is just sort of stuck right now.About all you'll see is the dollar peg down against every other currency in the world.
Soros is shorting the dollar. He put Obama in office which guaranteed massive budget deficits and a lower Dollar. The trade of the century.
holding expected return constant, such that your finding shows that risk has increased against expected return
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
TD on Bloomberg NOW
wtf just happened there
I'm actually a dollar bull...one thing I notice is a positive divergence between the stock market and dollar...market is not far at all from hitting it's top range, meanwhile dollar is still pretty far over the bottom it placed in early August. Couple that with Treasuries down from 3.6 or 7 down to 3.4 in the face of massive supply coming into the pike. Next week. more consumer confidence numbers, Personal consumption and expenditures (most likely not good news as this ramp hasn't help the US consumer) ... Baltic dry continues down and well China has started dropping... next week could be when the fireworks start
I'm actually a dollar bull...one thing I notice is a positive divergence between the stock market and dollar...market is not far at all from hitting it's top range, meanwhile dollar is still pretty far over the bottom it placed in early August. Couple that with Treasuries down from 3.6 or 7 down to 3.4 in the face of massive supply coming into the pike. Next week. more consumer confidence numbers, Personal consumption and expenditures (most likely not good news as this ramp hasn't help the US consumer) ... Baltic dry continues down and well China has started dropping... next week could be when the fireworks start
It's hard to make a case for the dollar... until you look at the alternatives. ALL the currencies are dogs. USD is a mangy mutt, but seems to have fewer fleas in the short term.
Why is TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) up along with the market today? Is this a tell for a market sell off?
The last time TLT was at this level the S&P was at 880. How high does TLT go if the S&P goes back to 880?
Why is TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) up along with the market today? Is this a tell for a market sell off?
The last time TLT was at this level the S&P was at 880. How high does TLT go if the S&P goes back to 880?
Today's rally was brought to you by "China's Equity Rebound", according to Reuters' daily 1-line summary of why the market was up. The market was up because China was up. Okay. Nearly 30 uninterrupted points on the S&P since yesterday on nothing. Jobs #? What jobs #? Didn't you hear about the surprising Regional Manufacturing Expansion?
I swear to God it's getting weirder and weirder every day. Isn't the rest of the world watching? What happened to those guys in Germany who were complaining about the manipulation going on? I'm not really complaining, because I'm making money hand over fist. But this is really just starting to get creepy.
And as for the dollar; I don't even know what to say. I guess the Euro is going back to a 1.60 and the pound will get back to 2.00. Oil @ 100 just in time for winter? And all this with the DOW @ 10K and the S$P @ 1150?
This is gonna suck.
Yep, the air is getting thinner, but we've still got oxidizer to pump into the engine. Apex? Not yet.
I have gold coins, gold bars, silver coins, silver bars, paladium bars, $21,000 in all. I am up 15%.
My buddy has 800 square feet of weed growing in his house. Cost- $2,000. He is up $35,000 in the past six months.
He says I am a fool. He is dollar long.
That is interesting--a hedge, made of plants.
The two of you constitute a perfect closed system. Except you need beer from outside.
That visual on the screen at the beginning of the Bloomberg radio show must be the view a stink pickle has if it's going down the poop chute head first.
Two days ago I posted that I heard the dollar would collapse. Here is the post. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/systemic-risk-black-swans-or-market-innovations#comment-40481
What happened???
My fantasy for tonight: to silence the growing chorus of those predicting the imminent collapse of the dollar, to put the smack-down on the oil speculators, to cool off the stock market which hasn't taken more than a 10-minute break in its advance since March 9th, the Fed comes out with a surprise 50bp rise in the Fed Funds rate tomorrow or early next week.
I have weird fantasies.
well, go ahead, buy copper by the 25,000 lb lot as your store of value - buy raw desert land hoping for a Solar Power farm, buy water, buy a new car, a railroad car for lease, sorry no exit ! tough luck, huh, if it WAS luck or Voodoo watching little charts with lines and numbers SUCKERS you still think in the old ways, you lose big time, you are obsolete