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When The Dust Settles
Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Following up on this morning's update, we still have not tested the key supports in Dax and Nikkei but came pretty close to do. Our wave count in the S&P futures indicates a target at 1,013/1,017 but intraday lows were only 1,036 and we have posted a pretty strong reversal intraday. We have bullish hammer formations in the S&P and Nasdaq futures, and interestingly both have shaped an open-ended triangle so there is a risk of a reversal here.
Major resistance is at 1,089 in S&P futures and should not be bypassed at this stage. Nasdaq futures have not overtaken the lows of the flash crash and as such the Nasdaq looks a lot more bullish than the S&P because it also held the 250-dma which was support below the lows of today's session. For those who have not taken profit on their shorts if we gap up on open tomorrow we would recommend covering them, or on a break of the 1,089 resistance. Another way to play this is to keep shorts in S&P unless one of the two stops mentioned above is activated and get long Nasdaq which is certainly more bullish here.
The issue I have here is that fundamentally the USD funding remains an issue, bank failures should therefore accelerate in Europe and in the US. A lower Libor setting would be a confirmation the market may have turned, unless we get the ECB stepping in and cutting 50bps. Either way it seems a bit premature to consider ourselves out of the woods but techncially the picture is definitely a lot more mixed.
If we do rebound we feel this move will last until the market gets confirmation the ISM is rolling over, and when that happens then real money will start liquidating longs and the next leg down will be a lot more sizeable.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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What does anybody make of this: PHYS
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Sprott-Physical-Gold-Trust-Annou...
Cha-Ching? How much physical are they buying?
Well i can make a hat, a broach, a teradactyle....
You must be very crafty...
airplane?
looks like i picked the wrong day to stop takin amphetamines
Looks like their working up for a midnight test and blow through 1089 as we speak.
Tyler, Can I at least keep my BP puts? Or also bad idea?
With the Alaska oil spill they have to deal with, I think you put on BP is safe. I'm looking to mmake an early bid this morning when the market opens.
My goodness whats all the excitement about in the futures, guess Jim Cramer called the bottom ahahahaha.
I decided to use today to get out of tha POS SRS, what a dog the ultra shorts have been, figure this action today, with the reverse 5X split a few weeks ago, it should be headed to 10.00, even as commercial real estate sucks balls.
Painting the tape after hours...
Would be grateful for an explanation of what "painting" means. Thank you.
Short forced exhalations such as are typically encountered during sexual exertions involving one or more other parties.
Painting the tape is when the PlungeProt. Team/CBanks move the market on low volume to give it the appearance of rising, or falling, depending on their needs at the time. After Hours trading/overnight is a great time to do this such as between 4 and 8 pm when no other major markets are open.
+10
Generally illegal practice which may be approved by some bankrupt administrations to give the illusion of a significant investor interest and a healthy economy. Like many paint jobs it is essentially designed to cover cracks in fiscal policy.
Typically done by making many small trades above the Ask which makes it appear as though there is a jump in buying interest.
So UBS upgrades gold prices and off we go. That is one of the first upgrades of the hated metal I have seen by a major firm in a long while. Long way to go. Very secure in all my holdings. And PHYS does 18 million more trust units. I will be buying more of that at some point tomorrow. Love these dumps. Gives me a chance to add more.
No shorts for a while. but...just a while.
Looking to June July for the fireworks, expected a bounce near term and we may retrace a bit of the last weeks losses. Still looking at 1101, I will add VIX as we melt up as I closed all June VIX calls this AM and IWM puts 5 minutes into the session. S. Korean news reporting N Korean subs have dissappeared off coast, all these counts will be crap if this escalates. 3rd wave batten down the hatches and grab a good lookin woman...something like that
IMHO the target of 1089 for the dead puss bounce is too low. Banksters will fight tooth and nail to pump that nonsense up. I would rather look at a 61.8% retracement, i.e. around 1150 on S&P. It should follow an A-B-C structure.
Dead puss! Great line!
An 1150 back-test ‘would’ form a perfect head and shoulders - the only problem is that at that crucial point in time, Mr. Buffet will whip out his CNBC Tool (Mr Peacock). Mr Peacock will announce the large head and shoulders forming "RIGHT THERE" before the entire world (circa June 09). This will be followed by a confirmation move to the downside, and then the large FLASH UP Crash (un-correctable by law) violent short squeeze to the upside – Boom, their catalyst to the next leg higher will be born, just in time for Nov. elections.
Watch for the usual cast of suspects (characters) as they begin to assemble the re-make of 09.
It’s not paranoia if they are really out to get you.
Is PHYS superior to GTU?
When either of these funds, issues new shares are you partially "uncovered"? meaning that the shares are sold before the physical metal is in posession.
How long does it take to get possession of 6t of gold? If one is really paranoid should one flip between gtu and phys until the metal arrives?
if the markets are totally rigged what value (validity) does technical analysis have?
Bullish hammers, now I wonder why they did that push up to squeeze shorts yesterday when all around the world the markets were collapsing? Get the sheeople suckered back in of course.. it is a lot harder to find buyers if the market is falling!