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When JPM/HSBC Don't Like The Results, The CME Just Changes The Rules: Full Revised Silver Margin Schedule
Here is how the CME just changed the rules just as the Fed was losing the game. Full new margin schedule attached.
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drop gettin apocalyptic bitchez
Ag off a buck, Gold intraday -40...etc
sounds like a good time to BUY trav.
I hope silver stays flat for the next 3 weeks!
3 more weeks for my christmas bonus and I want to spend it all on silver :)
Today I was 5 seconds short of maxing out my cash accounts and go all in on silver rounds.
Bullions just where getting a bit to high and I expected a little drop. Glad I didn't do it.
Like these?
http://www.apmex.com/Category/754/Silver_Bars__Rounds_Brand_New_ONLY.aspx
Before the SLV announcement...
"In the options market, Pete Najarian said there's been tremendous activity in the SLV
exchange-traded fund. More than 300,000 contracts changed hands in just the first few hours of trading. But with more puts being bought than calls, Najarian said investors are either hedging or speculating silver's due for a pullback after its 56 percent move to the upside this quarter."
Is it possible that somebody's got the news before the rest of us?
LOL!!!
Yeah it's just conceivable that such a thing might have happened.
I thought there might be "unintended consequences" from this "get tough" stance on JPM:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rico-suit-filed-against-hsbc-and-jpmorg...
P.S. - Go Dogs.
Is it possible that somebody's got the news before the rest of us?
I imagine a scenario similar to the event in February which Andrew McGuire described to the CFTC before it had in fact occurred. And yet the beat goes on...
This is peanuts relative to the fact ETF shares are deliverable against Comex Gold futures.
“Gold Backed” ETF’s are deliverable against Comex futures contracts. The Biggest Comex shorts are HSBC and JP Morgan, who also happen to be the custodians for the “Gold Backed” ETF’s!!!
The banks rumored to have the largest short positions in the gold market, JPM and HSBC, are the custodians for the two largest “gold backed” Exchange Traded Funds, SPDR Gold Shares (ticker: GLD) and IsharesCOmex Gold Trust (ticker: IAU).
Heres the scary part, these ETF shares are eligible for delivery for the benchmark Comex gold futures contract!!!!!!
Its only a matter of time this ponzi scheme blows up. But by then it doesn’t matter if you hold GLD shares or Comex shares, they’ll both be backed by promises similar to our nations currency.
Those specific people over at Comex/Nymex who pushed this through when this all falls apart, I hope aren’t forgotten when this shoe drops.
Posted on CME’s website,
The purpose of this Notice is to confirm that the Exchange would accept gold-backed exchange-traded Funds ("ETF") shares as the physical commodity component for an EFP transaction involving COMEX gold futures contracts, provided that all elements of a bona fide EFP pursuant to Exchange Rule 104.36 are satisfied.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/market-regulation/SER-4942.html
Also on CFTC website.
http://www.cftc.gov/files/submissions/rules/selfcertifications/2005/rul021805nymex001.pdf
I-shares Comex Gold Trust (ticker: IAU).
The assets of the Trust consist primarily of gold bullion held by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., London branch (the “Custodian”), as agent of the Trust responsible only to the Trustee.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1278680/000119312510251865/d10q.htm
From SPDR Gold Shares (ticker: GLD) 10Q
Gold is held by HSBC Bank USA, N.A. (the “Custodian”), on behalf of the Trust, and is valued, for financial statement purposes, at the lower of cost or market.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1222333/000095012310073211/y03680e10vq.htm
Little Al
Yeah, S. Debt. I was thinking the same. I just got a bunch of rounds I ordered two months ago and was debating whether to buy now before it hits the stratosphere or wait for a pullback. You can usually count on the traders to do some profit taking. Plus, if all the conspiracy theorists are right there will be some sort of market interventions where the little guys like me/us can jump in for a few more rounds, lol.
Glad I waited. Logic tells me there will be periodic pullbacks and profit taking. However, this is where I like being the long term holder hedging against economic armageddon. I don't need the very best price at any given moment. I can take delivery and put it in the safe behind my gun cabinet and barbed wire, lol. I will let the short and intermediate guys sweat out the day to day numbers.
However, if I do see the currency apolcalypse happening I will go all in with everything I can get my hands on.
While markets may have gone back and forth today, I do not see any change in Fed or government policy that makes me change my mind on metals. No one has announced a balanced budget, no more QE or the end of the currency wars.
sounds like a good time to BUY trav
famous last words
Check Farrell Rules again before reloading
http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-farrells-10-investing-rules-2009-12
The margin change is a nice excuse, but hardly explains the whole move.
For that, look at the long bond. Look at TLT. If yields scream higher, PMs will get killed as they should.
If this is the end of the bond bubble, it is probably also the end of the PM bubble.
Why would the end of the bond bubble imply the end of the PM bubble?
If the bond bubble ends (presumably because of higher inflation) isn't that good for PMs?
Please clarify?
If there is catastrophic hyperinflation, PMs are good, but if interest rates climb and inflation is not severe, PMs stink, simply because they do not earn any interest (and usually have a carry cost to boot).
If the 1-yr rate is 0%, you lose nothing owning PMs. Take it up to 5%, and they don't look so hot.
Except, of course, that equities underperform during hyperinflation. And PMs "stink" - are you paid to post your lies here?
1-years - yes, unless the house collapses before you get your principal back. Hey COMPLETELY RISK FREE INVESTMENT, right?
Did you read my post at all? I didn't even mention equities. I think equities are the worst investment right now. I am actually on the King Dollar bandwagon at the moment. My point was that, all other things being equal, with any marginal higher interest rate available on cash, a PM becomes marginally less attractive.
BTW, I do own some physical PMs, purely as insurance against a worst case scenario. Which also makes me wonder why everybody is so upset silver is not going straight vertical. If we were to wake up next week with $50 silver, it would not be a good thing for anybody.
And finally, if anybody here was long PMs on margin, you got what you deserved.
Fair enough. Apologies, I was a bit quick off the mark.
Nah, I've only got physical, I don't touch anything but. For my part, I'm upset with regards to Silver, because it's so obvious what they're doing. There are plenty of other commodities rising at faster rates but Silver, but they don't strike down on those, despite them being essential for life. You do the math.
I wouldn't put a penny into the US Dollar or USD-denominated debt. I think the USD is living on borrowed time, and every day I get out of bed wondering who those idiots are who still buy treasuries, when the status quo of the US is so obviously completely unsustainable. The only - ONLY - reason for people still buying them is in the hope of finding a greater fool down the line - i.e. practically the definition of a ponzi scheme.
How do you guys like my new handle. He will replace Jonny as Obama2012 replaced JW
Thanks for the explanation SpeakerFTD.
On a similiar note, how do other commodities perform in this situation? I assume agricultural would rise with inflation whether it is hyper or regular, correct?
How about energies? Does it also rise with hyper/regular inflaton? And for what reasons?
Can you explain the effect on metals such as copper as well?
Really Appreciate it if you can.
If interest rates rise significantly, if the bond bubble has popped and we are looking at a multiyear trend higher in interest rates, commodities will get absolutely crushed across the board. There will be supply/demand issues as always, and if Peak Oil is real that will have a supportive effect on some commodities, but in general, a move higher in interest rates now equals forced-upon austerity, and it will crush both genuine demand and any speculative juices currently supporting prices.
Absent Fed interference, we are in a naturally deflationary environment as we need to delever decades of malinvestment. Fed interference has so thoroughly screwed up normal market signals, that I think we may be witnessing a theoretically "impossible" scenario, such as stagflation was once imagined to be. In this scenario, long-term rates rise over a long period of time even as deflation bites deeper. The driver for higher rates would be solvency concerns and a general lack of trust in any other market player, including the U.S. government If that happens, you have a massive Depression over several years, and assuming war does not emerge as a result, the man with actual cash in hand at the end of it is able to buy assets at fire sale prices from people who need to trade those assets for the necessities of life.
I realized I will be wildly junked for such an unorthodox theory, but my point is that extent of Fed interference with the market is such that the unwinding process is bound to create previously unthinkable market behaviors.
Just currious, but is it even possible for interest rates to rise? I mean, its not like we are going to magically stop operating off new debt, and with higher rates..wont they just have to print more anyways to service it? And if so, ... whats the difference between that outcome and what we have now...where PM's are soaring.
I still believe it comes to faith in the system, and I have none. So, I'll keep stacking.
There is not only a deleveraging of malinvestment plus the fraud but a general freeze or destruction through government policy wrecking the economy and incomes, as well.
The other deleveraging that needs to be done is the price of money itself. The entire Western and even much of the Middle Eastern world has serious debt problems. Ergo, it seems that the price of money should have been going up dramatically the last few years, not down. As wealth has been destroyed, debt has not completely followed, particularly at the government level. However, with the Fed and central banks intervening there is an artificially low price to money itself. If money could be priced right it seems to me a lot would come off the sidelines and even out of bonds where its been parked more to avoid loss than achieve gain. This of course would be bad for the USA, the world's largest debtor.
Raising rates? There's zero chance of that happening, as it would mean instant bankruptcy of millions of homeowners, who in turn would take all the banks with them.
As for the "natural deflationary environment" - well, we WOULD be, if only it wasn't for the Fed effectively promising to print enough to backstop all the toxic waste (pay attention to the extremely open-ended promises of the QE2 statement). How any semi-rational person can't see how this will feed into inflation is beyond me.
As I said it in my previous response - the only reason for anyone to buy US Treasury debt is in the expectation of locating a greater fool down the line (which in today's environment usually IS the Fed). I.e. it's a ponzi scheme. The US is effectively insolvent; it's a termite ridden house about to collapse. There is no way her debts will be honoured in a fair manner.
And once the US Dollar Index drops, ignoring liquidity concerns, whether you're in cash of bonds make very little difference - they will both drop in terms of purchasing power.
Anyway, Gold up $10 to $1,407 and Silver back up to $27.85.
Equities get hammmered, commodities do OK, PMs do well (they do well in inflation or deflation, poorly under stable low inflation).
Excellent explanation Speaker, it's been a while since I've actually learned something from the ZH comments.
If interest rates climb...
the debt becomes unserviceable.
people save more.
Uncle ben wants neither of these.
Exactly. Rates cannot go up and will not be allowed to go up until Uncle Ben cannot keep theGenie in the bottle any longer. That's the whole point of the QEs - drive rates down by buying all the debt you can at any price because if rates go up all hell is going to break loose.
Bermonkey will print print print until everything that is real is unobtainable because no one will trade them for paper money. Why would they when paper money has no value because it can and is created by the hundreds of billions (and soon to be trillions) at the flip of a switch.
Ben has to have rates low, and just as the Fed did for over a decade in the 40s and into the 50s they will keep rates low. 10yr at 2% was the norm and I expect we will see that for the next 5-7 years or longer.
When the lights go on though, the rates will explode and inflation/hyper inflation is right behind. All that money will come pouring out of every nook and cranny and try to buy anything at any price.
yeah.. I agree.. but 10yr at 2.63 today... Will the markets eventually have a say in rates?. Can the fed buy 100% of all sovereign debt? What about other bonds?..
There is no way out of this.. They can take silver back down to 20 and I wouldn't even flinch... Point is, we are phucked.. The only thing that will fix this is a collapse and reset..
"When debt becomes unservicable", In the short run higher rates increases the holding cost of metals, but ultimately when DS rises, its gonna crush the currency -
See Grease ;)
Your argument is logical, but your premise that interests rates are going up and inflation isn't is completely delusional on both counts.
If rates go to %5 The United State Treasury will spontaneously combust:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZrqC5LL_oo
Interest rates climb? Can't see that happening anytime soon.
5% !!!! Yeah , in a decade maybe. Are you smoking some of Ben's stash?
Fucking moron.
This move is the trademark strategy used by these big banks and their cronies at CME. They all piss in the same pot.
Their MO is dictated by Heavy losses on naked shorts. Actions that they can take can be one of three that I have experienced.
1.a) Banks remove their buy bids off the board, leaving a skeleton crew of legitimate long bidders (making offers to buy).
b) Banks issue enough naked short offers to fill every bid on the board. Filling ever lower bid makes the price move lower, triggering stops. The momentum is then self-fulfilling.
c) When momentum slows, jump in on the buy side before everyone else and buy back your shorts at profit, ripping off the longs who are bailing at a loss.
2) a. Get your buddies at the CME to raise margin requirements, enticing long players to offload contracts due to higher carrying costs.
b. Get your buddies at the CME to implement the rule change at end of trading day when most day traders and desk jockeys have turned their console off and have gone to the local bar to brag about their long winnings. This momentum will carry over into the after hours market when there is recognized light trading. Helps the momentum with fewer naked shorts needed to keep the price falling.
c. Weak hands dump contracts into hands of short dealers, who are buying back their losing positions. Guaranteed light volume price move.
3.) a. Force Majeure. Get your buddies to tell the longs that there is no way that you can deliver on your naked promise. The CME lets the shorts off with a slap on the wrist and severe frowning.
b. To the longs the CME will say; "Go fuck yourself".
c. That is their next play.
Buy physical with both hands. Play their paper games on the long side, as of NOW, with mackerel-assed, tight stops.
Yes, just like what happened in the 1970's, where interest rates and gold both went WAY up.
Retard.
Interest rates climbed throughtout the 70's, ineffectively chasing inflation. And gold rose right along with it. Bonds will fall, gold will rise, stocks will go sideways to down. We can never afford to take rates where they should go, hence always behind inflation. Interest payments on debt is already 12 % of gdp or some silly high figure. Imagine what it will be when we have to pay fair rates.
To be clear, I am a long-term PM bull and will always have some in my portfolio. But in the short-term, we could correct very hard from here, especially if the Fed cannot keep a lid on the long end of yield curve. Personally, I don't think they will. They will fail like they have always failed over the last decade.
If they fight hard enough, the Fed could potentially succeed in absolutely destroying the dollar as a functioning global currency, but I think/wish/hope they are not that suicidally stupid, as anyone who is very long PMs will look quite wealthy compared to their neighbors, but will have to protect that wealth in a completely dysfunctional, potentially violent, banana-republicesque society. Not a good result in my book.
More likely, I think/hope, the Fed will blink, the long end of the yield curve will rise, potentially very quickly, and the dollar will soar, even as the interest rate environment will force us into a prolonged period of deflationary austerity. This scenario is not bullish PMs, although if the behavior of the Yen over the last decade is any indication, it might be very bullish the dollar.
I don't know what the Fed is going to do, and neither does anyone else, so making big bets on the politics of the Fed strikes me as foolhardy.
In any case, I guess my point is that I view PMs as a purely defensive play. Anyone who is trying to get rich off PMs through speculation deserves whatever losses they take. PMs are true money, true long-term stores of value, and trying to game them like other trading vehicles is contrary to the whole reason one should value PMs in the first place. Having PMs go parabolic might feel good at the moment, but it spells an enormous amount of systematic, society-wide trouble in the future, certainly more trouble than any paper gains are worth. You should own some physical PMs, have them locked away someplace safe, and hope to God that they appreciate in a slow and boring manner and you get to pass them on to your kids in a world as relatively normal as our current one.
Incidentally, on a technical note, am I the only who noticed silver ran smack into a trendline going back over a decade? If you believe in trendlines, it suggests that there might be lot more downside ahead than anyone on here seems to appreciate.
I am actually with you that a parabolic move upwards in silver is NOT a good thing, even with a PM bug like me. It would signal either a panic or an abdication of some sort.
Where I would be cautious is how much interest rates would have to rise to hurt PM's. In the early 80's Volcker had to get it up to about 21% before PM's calmed down and established a new lower normal. It was in the midst of a renewed and growing economy, too, not the crap we have, now. Interest rates like the early 80's bankrupts the USA debt service in a short period of time. Interest rates themselves can signal a loss of confidence in the currency a.k.a. banana republic. Try to buy any PM with Zimbabwe paper. Their interest rates should be super attractive!
The Fed is turning Japanese. They are stuck in a liquidity trap and cannot raise interest rates for fear of collapsing the whole shebang. Not gonna happen. PMs to rise for a long time.
margin requirement = big guns for manipulators. Silver now down a paltry eighty cents.
HAHAHAHAHAHA fucking morons. It looked like a buying op to everyone.
these house dice keep coming up snake eyes.
the LBMA and the COMEX are probably just a fraction OTC metals derivatives, and that is why you can't bust them
I would not be betting the farm on metals on futures markets under any circumstances
if you can trade on a small scale, and plow the profits in bullion, that would be fine; but I would buy bullion first and then speculate a little
the shorts are getting toasted, but they are the big banks, and they have large gains in trading to offset these losses
if silver blows thru 30 on the way to 40, them maybe the shorts are in trouble
GET A FUCKING JOB YOU DUMB ASS MOTHER FUCKER!
When Tyler posts a new story you're less than a minute behind him to say something stupid and then go away so you can sit and wait to give a quick one liner again once a new post makes ZeroHedge. You're pathetic. You're a fool, and worst of all, you are a disgrace to ZH. Please fuck off and go dig a road or something - whatever it takes to get your 40+ year old ass off his mom's computer and doing something productive. You're such a worthless fool I don't have the time to list how stupid you are BECAUSE I HAVE TO GO TO WORK!
Just go away!
One way around this is not to use margin...not certain what percent of players use but given the 2008 collapse I assume that amount may be quite substantial.
Show me a desk that doesn't use margin and ill show you...
Ummm.
My desk.
It's rather small.
My desk too. Along with everyone else who holds physical.
I expected something like this would happen at some point, where paper markets would fail, and eventually approach $0, while physical was either unavailable, or took on sky-high premiums.
Except paper markets haven't failed, I only follow COMEX gold but spreads are in a 'healthy' contango. In inverted commas since my data only goes back 18 months, I don't know what spreads have been historically.
There's no shortage of bids for paper gold right out to Dec 2014. Some odd movements in open interest in the last couple of months though.
So is mine. 2 Monitor but it's glass, so I think I kinda kick ass!
A 'desk' managing < $10MM is no kind of desk.
good troll
I don't invest in silver but you simply sound like a dick.
I don't "invest" in it either. I just buy it.
Nah, he's just a little prick.
Not only are you a troll, you're a bad liar.
LOL
But....but.....but he said it on the Internet.
And everyone knows that you can believe everything you read on the Internet. So he can't possibly be lying.
Can he? OMG, my world crumbles. :>)
You are shorting Ag?!
IDIOT!!
This was just a small putback! You'll never make money on it!
That walking toats really aggravates me.
what an odd sense of humor you have...
It's called sarcasm.
OMG double sarcasm
Only silver? They didn't even try to make it look innocent by including other "products."
THEY SIMPLY DONT CARE ANYMORE....what r u going to do about it
What, you mean like Soybeans, Cotton, Oats and Sugar, which all see much faster price increases than Silver?
Why would they? After all, the only people who will suffer from those increases are peasants.
Right Escapekey exactly.
Hey look on the bright side. DXY up nearly 1%.
The new POMO schedule get released tomorrow, so they needed some (slight) breathing room on the USD....
POMO: Resistance is futile.... After today equities continue the melt-up.
Just buy the physical, put it in your safe, get it out every so often to enjoy how pretty it looks. Why play the 'paper silver' game?
Your point is well taken and I do have substantial amounts in silver and gold physical (Banco Azteca in Mexico is just a 10 minute drive from my house.) However, my big $$ is in my USA IRA which, unfortunately, probably will be confiscated before I can collect on it. In that account I have ONLY paper gold and silver - well known, respected, Canadian closed end funds (no ETFs,) and Au & Ag miner funds. Zero diversification. I figure no matter how high or low it goes, I can cash out, pay taxes & penalties the following year & get hundreds of ounzes of gold & thousands. Craftsmanship is cheap here so I can have a different massive PM jewelry mixture draped over my body each day of the year.
I can have a different massive PM jewelry mixture draped over my body each day of the year.
Au lei?
Ole!
So...crude came off 2 bucks because CME raised margin on Silver? The Euro got slapped because it costs more money to speculate on silver? Come on fellas, you're smarter than that...something else going on here. And I'm not dissing silver...I own it and I'm not selling. Just sayin', stop taking silver so personally and look at everything else
If they can do it without warning to silver, why can't they do it to any other commodity? This was a symbolic move to scare leveraged longs of all commodities. The Fed knows rapidly increasing commodity prices have the potential to disrupt their printing party. Thus they want to delay the inevitable by eliminating as much of the margin speculating as they can.
+1 Best interpretation yet.
And, how many times have they done this in the last ten years? To gold, for instance? Several.
Thus they want to delay the inevitable by eliminating as much of the margin speculating as they can.
What are the implications of this?
Agreed - listening to wepollock lately who has a interesting Marxist perspective and he seems to hinting at a massive confrontation between China and US.
This shit is going to get very very nasty.
Wepollock banned me from his youtube channel because I respectfully disagreed with him one time after he used expletives over someone suggesting 9/11 was an inside job. I haven't been back since - he was always on about "The Fuller Model" which he never fully explained.
That guy's a douchebag anyway.
Yes I disagree with his analysis on many levels but I agree with him that capital creation should be directed towards energy capital creation.
If the Austrians have their way we will have a balanced budget all right but we will be too busy working on some plantation to enjoy the finer things in life.
Complete rejection of Hamiltonian vertical power will make our cities uninhabitable.
As for 9/11 I know in my gut that something stinks but I cannot prove it.
Given his semitic background he may be spooked by his ethnic groups role in the financial and political turmoil and may want to try remain positive about what his culture can contribute rather then its negative speculative nature.
He may fear a expulsion not unlike what happened after the decline of Spain.
Listening to him lately he looks really concerned - there are demons ready to be unleashed here unless people can do practical things to avoid a breakdown crisis.
Most Jews aren't Semetic but are European by decent. The more you know...
...then what?
he was always on about "The Fuller Model" which he never fully explained.
That's what the brush man carries in his valise.
Ben's burning down the house to prove he can.
It is interest rates, plain and simple. The long bond got hammered today. Went out on the lows.
If the Fed cannot keep a lid on the back end of the curve, then all assets, except cash, should get hammered as a result.
All acts of desperation, panic and fear.
Yes. They are in trouble on the physical side. And they cannot blame the Hunts this time around.
You stole my thought. The Hunt Bros. came to mind immediately.
Frankly, I could not care less about the CFTC move since I don't buy my silver this way, nor need any margin(s). I'm a simple Coon who likes shiny things.
Hey RR
I saw a few of your posse the other day on the side of the road near my house. They didn't look too well.
Were they doing recon to try and discover my hidden identity or were they just out trolling for babes and got caught in the cross fire? :>)
I'm afraid that was a distant clan, CD. No news yet from the families. I'll keep ya posted.
I had a run in with a raccoon years ago cleaning out a pile of trash.. Even though I had many potential weapons and he was much smaller, i was still a bit intimidated.. LOL
I eventually scared him off.. But he walked away slowly with a "you'd be fucking crazy to fuck with me" attitude... :)
Thats the way I see it all, desperate acts from desperate men.
Changing the rules means somebody was getting *hurt*
As far as I can tell, Fekete is still on track and changing the rules won't work. Nothing will. I refer you to King Canute.
If the metals pause and turn back up, its going to be eerie silence time at the primaries...
Otherwise, I was waiting for a dip anyway. :-p
This is what I keep blathering about. If we are to have thousands of regulators writing tens of thousands of rules that force people to do, or not do, lots of things, tax certain things, etc... the Big Boys will have the resources to participate in every session and contribtute to the campaigns. Everyone else is made into a victim.
This system is sold to the people on the grounds that it will protect them from the Big Boys. The reality is exactly the opposite.
true true - we are all pawns - But I don't worry about my phys gold and silver. I don't count value up or down because I know it's worth more than their paper.
the market will prevail
I've got some PM exposure but the way this stuff has been moving is sort of scary.
Just wondering, between last nights missile launch and the gold/silver missile launch are the Chinese flexing some muscle?
Scary? You ain't seen nothing yet. These are only the tremors before the quake.
Considering what happened to Gold and Silver today the major indexes held up very very very well. They barely went down at all by comparison. Of course this is all in anticipation of the new POMO schedule announcement. Which should be daily for the next 2 weeks to make up for today's scare.
Let's see what happens before tomorrow evening when the 30% increase in margins goes into effect
No big deal. It does not reduce nor increase the physcial availability. They do this in every bull move and lose. It's a sign of desperation because everyone knows the most feared words at the CME and COMEX:
"I'll take delivery please."
+10
Hey it worked for Armand Hammer and the COMEX insiders against the Hunts $54 silver in 1980
They key is phsyical delivery and no margin. Hell with em.
Trading like this in all markets scares the fuck out of my thought process and it's telling me that the SHTF (day) "is" alot closer than everyone thinks ??
Prepare for time is short !
great minds think alike 3-eggs
3g.. I'm thinking it already hit and it's being kept a secret from us... Not for long though
C'mon . . . with silver at $29 intraday, a single contract (at that point) had nearly $150,000 in value and could be controlled for $6,750 in initial margin for 21.5-to-1 leverage.
With the $2.50 drop in price and the new margin level, one can still bet the farm on silver at 15-to-1 (and silver is already making a comeback).
Agreed. There are also silver options available on the COMEX that trade with essentially unlimited liquidity. Plenty of ways to trade PMs if you do your homework.
+1, I don't see too much conspiracy here. The price of silver has shot up, so why shouldn't the required margin be higher?
Does China's sovereign wealth use margin? Doubt it.
whaa! we're still relevant, really... see, look what we can do to your paper prices.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz7_3n7xyDg
This announcement, along with JPM/HSBC selling more paper in the thinly traded NY access market, should be enough to convince everyone that silver is in a, er how you say Nouriel? Oh yes, she is in a bauble.
Not.
Baubles, bitchez! (You made me do it so all the junks are on your head.)
"Junks they are in a bauble."
-Nouriel Roubini
what's the lifespan on this, couple days - silver back at $30, maybe end of week. Of course later this month they are going to do it for expiration
OK. Here's the deal.
Margin limits are raised all the time, particularly in futures where huge price moves are taking place. I get it.
This, however, stinks to high hell. 100%, clear, unadulterated panic move requested and supported by the Evil Empire and the Fed. Open Interest in silver was rising too rapidly and the silver Comex is broken and unable to meet delivery for December. The only way to suppress open interest is to raise margin requirements. Heck, I'm just surprised they didn't make the limits 100%! Wait, don't laugh. They might.
In the end, all they've done is created a less expensive entry point for our buyer(s) of size and run the price of silver all the way back to where it was 36 hours ago. Who knows, maybe it will follow through a little more but, in the end, the EE simply cannot change the fundamentals and the buyer(s) of size is/are determined to break them.
Volatility will only continue to increase as the EE gets more desperate. If you are faint of heart or easily frightened, I suggest you move to the sidelines and watch the show from afar. For those of us with true conviction, I suggest you buy all dips, including this one.
Gold will still trade at 1500 before 12/10/10.
The Great Turd has spoken. Thanks for the update!
I don't know. Guys in funny hats scare the hell out of me. That and coons with shiny objects gnawing at my leg.
Is that your teeth or are you just happy to eat me? :>)
You'll know the angry raccoon when you need to know.
They did this in crude to kill it, some congressmen spoke openly about it in 2008.
Turd!
If this really happens, without a meaningful correction whatsoever, fuck, i'll buy you a beer in US GermanTown...TheVillage in NYC that is! Benjie's Plan gets hurt if Commodities go too high...watch out Below Bubba!
I'll be the guy at the end of the bar in the big, yellow hat.
Turd, your my hero. Took the last 5k out of my savings and headed to the coin shop for some mercury dimes now.
headed to the coin shop for some mercury dimes now.
"Quick -- silver!"
Vive Turd!
I agree with you on many points Turd, but look at the huge volatility in the SI as well as GC market. The time of raising the requirements is unfortunate but it has to be done. This market would go otherwise asymptotic as TD saif earlier...
Look at the candle in SIZ0!!! What an engulfing pattern. Massive.
I will from here refer to u as Mr. Turd out of upmost respect...thank u for explaining the increase motives and probable ramificiations b4 i had to formally request one...now, would u concur that what we witnessed today was nothing more that another purposefull naked short orgy that had absolutley nothing to do with longs heading for the exits and more importantly substantive liquidation of physical inventories or eroding Silver fundamentals...i'll take my answer of the air if u would indulge....thanks
No, I posted something this morning that mentioned a pulling of bids. I think that's what happened. Our buyer(s) of size are persistent but not stupid. The PMs were running too far and too fast. On the first hint of a pullback, I expected them to pull their bids and let it fall, which they did. Now they have a chance to buy more under 1400 and under 27. Just leki they had hoped.
Well, that opportunity is now gone. Gold back up to $1,410.
Owe you a beer or vine or nugget in vienna too, in the case you ever come here! Great guidance in this storm! As far as I can see there was good buying in HUI components towards the close. Also the snap back of the lows looking good imho. Further I guess another good opportunity for the Sprott ETFs to load the boat again.
Cant wait to see my wife’s face when I drop another $1400 of her hard earned FRN’s on an “overpriced 1oz collector’s item”…and tell her….honey I got it on good word from a guy named turd on the internet that gold is the dig and going up up up! Thanks Turd! My check goes to silver!
It is strange, isn't it? I find myself listening to cnbc in the morning driving to work, I hear some PM's news and all I can think is "I wonder what Turd will say about this?"
And then, in the tenth year of the new century, there appeared a sooth sayer renowned through the land. And he dids't shew the people the way, and it was good. And he was revered by the name...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTbrIo1p-So
agree %100...
ed steers on silver...
file:///Users/doug/Desktop/Ed Steers $60 silver..html
Thanks Turd. Appreciate your comments.
Turd as always love to see your take on it. All out of ammo right now, waiting for the next paycheck to come in...but man it's starting to get rougher to put the scratch together to buy.
Heck, I'm just surprised they didn't make the limits 100%! Wait, don't laugh. They might.
They can make them more than 100%, and have done so in the past. With platinum, if I recall correctly.
+1 Contributor Priviledges
Give this man a column, somebody, please. Turd, to say nothing of your calls, your concise analysis and thorough reason are teachers. Reading your shit gives the impression of puzzle pieces falling into place.
Just inflation. The dollar does not buy as much as it did before ... or have you not heard?
Turd you magnificent bastard.. where are you?
(thank god a captcha question I can answer in my head..)
My intuition is that this is tremendously bullish for silver. "They" are scared of the run in PMs and are now visibly showing their fear. It's like blood in the water for those who want to feed on the dead stinky fiat fish.
I do hope there is a correction though, so I can buy in for more.
yup, agreed. i think this is foreshadowing a market signal failure. all they did was win a small battle today while negotiating terms of surrender.
after all the exuberance i've seen lately, i was getting worried. now, after this, i couldn't be more sure ...
The stock index futures will rise 0.40% tonight. The Dow Mini futures will move up to 11368 by 3:00am cst, they always rise after a red close.
A silver short rescue (bailout) for JPM and HSBC or
Comex can't deliver allocated physical. Either way it doesn't
pass any smell test.
Reminds me of the headfake right before the QE2 announcement last week - maybe something else is coming (besides the POMO schedule announcement) that they need to beatdown PM's for to put a little scare in these markets (still not lower than 2-3 days ago though).
as of now it's right where it was yesterday at 11am
It is right. They can stick all these paper-silver and paper-gold into their ass. Nobody buys physical gold or silver on margin.
The good news they do not control the world any more. They are desperate and they are stupid.
The masters of the world never accept a defeat easily. They have only used a fraction of their real power yet.
If the tinfoil hats are correct this margin increase would be like pouring gasoline on the fire of the shorts. So why did Silver round trip 10% today, closing at the lows? Doesn't make sense if there was a huge "naked" short COMEX position now would it?
margin requirements and position limits just happen to be two slightly, and completely, different topics. Look into it, and while at it, please check how big JPM and HSBC's margin allotment is, then get back to us.
Still, it's not entirely explained in your post how this increase in margin requirement helps JPM and HSBC.
If higher margin slows movement, it doesn't change the direction, surely.
This looks to me more like one of those "unintended consequences" of pressure on JPM for its behavior in the silver market.
I think it might even turn bearish for gold, although I'm certainly still expecting $1700, myself.
It shifts the demand curve to the left. Higher opportunity cost makes entry less appealing.
(btw, this isn't one of those posts where I take on a snarky, know-it-all tone and quote Mises at you like Scripture. I'm actually looking for somebody to elaborate on or refute my logic.)