This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Where’s the Beef?
That was the thorny question wracking the brains of investors Friday morning on the heels of the hugely disappointing nonfarm payroll report showing that 430,000 jobs were gained in May.
Never mind that this was the best report in several years. The problem arises when you dig deeper and find that 411,000 were temporary census workers who are going to be let go in a few months, leaving the “real” job gain at a measly 19,000.
So this is all $887 billion in stimulus and 19 months of zero interest rates get you?
Traders wasted no time tanking the market, taking the Dow down a nausea inducing 350 points. Private sector hiring actually plunged from 218,000 in April to only 41,000, and the overall labor force shrank by 322,000, as if it had just taken a dip in a frigid lake. Construction took a big hit as usual, losing 35,000 jobs, while manufacturing gained a miniscule 29,000 jobs.
There are now more than 15 million unemployed, including 6.8 million who have been jobless for more than six months. Until today’s number, our nine month long recovery produced a net loss of 133,000 jobs! At this stage of the 2003 recovery, we were regularly clocking 200,000-300,000 a month in job gains.
Administration officials wasted no time trumpeting the decline in the headline unemployment figure from 9.8% to 9.7%, while privately wringing their hands over the true meaning of the report. Is Michele Obama already secretly scoping out new private elementary schools in Chicago?
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on the “Today’s Radio Show” menu tab on the left on my home page.
- advertisements -
Madhedgefundtrader is an idiot. Perhaps he would like to post a follow up to his Jan 13 post "Why the Big Trade of 2010 Will Be a 30 Year Treasury Short." He says he is a "worshipper of the TBT." This awesome trade would have lost your ass, as the TBT has gone from $50.37 to $38.73 since then. Fucking dumbass.
Eveeryone here today knows the stimulus was set up to help hold it together until the elections. After that, all bets are off. If republicans take back the congress, it will be "look out below".
Our whole political system is at fault. They approved a stimulus plan then decided to use it to shore up the banks instead of creating jobs which was the premise for the stimulus. Then the cherry on top is we don't have any stipulations on how the money is used by the treasury dept. . Where is our representation.
This brings me to think of the Silver / Gold Ratio..
today it stands at 70.1 .... that is high..
Silver is so cheap right now.... It should be $ 110. / oz.
Obama has jumped the shark.
When was her EVER great? In order to jump the shark, he had at one time to be great. I can't think of single second when his rhetoric (admittedly far more articulate than that disaster, W) matched his accomplishment. He is Bush II and that should be enough to describe a failed man right from the get go.
Well, I think this little line is the obvious giveaway...
"At this stage of the 2003 recovery, we were regularly clocking 200,000-300,000 a month in job gains."
The bubble in 2003 was housing, so there were real jobs to be had in the real world making real things.
Now the bubble is purely financial (Bonds, Commodities) and so obviously very little real job creation.
For real job creation, requiring a transformation of mind-sets, see
www.squareandc.net
Not pitching anything, just wondering who'll be the next one to "get-it". I've had my Eureka moment, when will you have yours?
:-)
Pa, go long and go long often.
Whatever you do, always go long.
Listen to Jim Cramer and go looooooooooooooong.
Buy here, buy there and always buy the dips, average down and always leave your profits on the table.
Why do you think this game is working so well - FOR THEM!
LOL.
All stimulus and no nutrition.
Was there a time sometime in the past when governments spent money to invest.
What would you want to build - the Hoover Dam or a Investment banks balance sheet?
Maybe a good compromise is to damn the Banks.
That's what I always wondered... where are the dams? The national parks? The highway systems? Etc.
Something that lasts. Something to be enjoyed by many. Something that puts people to work. Something to make America proud.
Instead, we've just been pissing it away. Such a shame.
Now that would have made sense but alas, it wouldn't have paid BILLIONS IN BONUSES to the banksters.
Maybe, just maybe with QE 2.0 they will actually produce something tangible.
One can HOPE, that some things CHANGE.
We've been trying to ensure that states get to keep their bloated budgets elephantine as long as possible before succumbing to reality.
So we should wait on RIG? Missed it at $48 earlier...I have a feeling this will drop nicely should the general market tank.
RIG is an excellent value, but it will be an even better value when wave 5 of this downmove (it began this past Friday) in the SPX is over. Deep water drilling will grow in the future, and this little disaster will increase prices. Investors aren't watching what is really happening. Instead of the one rig that blew up, we now have two rigs along side drilling relief wells. Smells like money to me.
"Is Michele Obama already secretly scoping out new private elementary schools in Chicago?"
You can not win quote of the day from an article, you have to post it on the thread! Good try though!
My unemployment number is 25%++. I include homeless people; call it U-9.
Rumor's the Madrass she's got her eye on.
Spot on, spot on. I believe it also to be at 25% or close to it.
For the first time in many months, it seems that the curtain is being pulled back to expose the goat circus that Timmay, Benwah and Obammy have put together. They have wasted trillions (yes trillions) and desperately wanted the facade to stretch out for just a few... more... months. But alas, it is finally starting to be proven that the emperor and his court have no clothes. It is dumbfounding that there are still many out there who are putting a happy face on today's numbers. What a bunch of dildos.
Dildos have a use. Don't be so kind.
"goat circus" LOL!!!!!!!
I pictured Ben and Timmay with short, stumpy horns.....
Hey, I'm not done playing yet. Up, down, sideways.. there's lots of volume in the market to make money slowly but surely.
do you mean theres lots of volume in "the market" better described as the Government Suchs Casino to make electron profits, convertible into slips of paper, which will be devalued / inflated / taxed / flash-crashed away faster than you can "make" it?
good luck with that but I think your local bookie would give much better odds
IMO Obama had no idea about the job numbers until they were given to him today.
He was mislead into trumpeting a huge job surprise to the upside.
The manipulators and conspirators used the opportunity to sell stock until today into a ficticious rally.
The cat is out of the bag today and hence the massive blood letting.
Obama was used as part of a stock campaign - again. I'm on the record for pointing out that since 2009, the manipulators have used phrases such as "green shoots" or "recovery" to offload billions of dollars worth in stock that they had newly issued at zero or bought on the cheap.
Obama is either a complete tool or he's a co conspirator in this.
Enjoy the Hamptons y'all.
If the rallies are ficticious, then so are the crashes.
Can't have your cake and eat it too, son.
Where does that leave you Benny, when everyone finds out it's all fiction?
I prefer the term "pretentious cipher" to describe our narcissistic nothing of a leader.
A Hollow Man. A chump. Completely transparent. What a fucking mess we're in and we keep placing OUR constitution into the safety of his (and his ilk) hands!? Well, fuck my brown dog Rover, are we perennially dumb or just mad! True believers,,, from both sides of the house,,,,, you can kiss my ass!
By August 1st all census workers will be out of a job. In June they will be both hiring new and laying off old workers. I would guess a ~250k net gain. But then it is over.
On average this is like losing 500,000 $17/hr jobs on July 31. It is going to feel like hitting a wall. Consumption will drop, defaults will increase. ZIRP will be with us till 2011. WTF?
ZIRP will be with us far, far longer than 2011.
ZIRP4EVA
I wonder if they'll try to keep the 600k census workers? Maybe move them over to Americorps or something like that.
Give 'em a roll of quicker-picker-uppers and put 'em on the Gulf Coast.
Lizzy O'Leary showed us just today how hard these BP employees were working on clean up.. Standing around under a tent, smoking. Transitioning the reality of the phrase "good enough for government work" to the private sector complete. Or, if this is the way BP enforces supervision of its employees it's no wonder their operations keep blowing up.
I was watching her on the beech also - nothing better to do, she is very energetic.
What was funny is that she mentioned the BP lads were very cross because she broke the rules by crossing the cordon.
Its great to see journalists and the like breaking all the rules to get the story
No doubt Lizzy brings it...
we can have another census in September
Biden, is that you?
Unemployment up, defaults up
ZIRP ended and interest rate hike, defaults up
Housing takes another major dip, strategic defaults up
Banks wrap this mountain of defaults as MBS II and sends them through the Treasury for the FED to securitize against UST's. By now the tail is certainly in the dogs mouth.
But, but, I got an extra $10 a week in my paycheck like Joel Klein told me from the stimulus. I got extra dough now to buy them thare stocky thingies that CNBC says to buy, buy, buy the dips. Been buying all these dips and still losing money. Damn you Jim Cramer!
Obama is gone. He is no FDR and FDR was a horrible president anyhow. $1T in stimulus and countless turtle tunnels so they don't get ran over and they have the balls to say there was no waste in the stimulus, bullshit. Frankly, the Republicans are no better and I will be amazed if we end up with the same political system in 5 years. Yes, it is that bad in the real world and people are that pissed. I am short, very short, I am making money and I am pissed that I have to be short and long gold, not that I have a problem with gold, I am a bug, to be making money. What happened to my country??
i am short very short .. let me quess 5'3"
What happened to your country? You put its security into the hands of politicans and their bureaucracy. You let them allow a private central bank issue currency rather than issue it from treasury. You let the politicians wash their hands of the responsibility of securing the country's money: its capital. You left them to trample the constitution whilst you suckle on the tit of "democracy". Fuck democracy, choose liberty. Fuck big government, choose independence. Fuck debt in all its forms, choose money it its real form. Fuck debt slavery, end the FED.
If you are so pissed about being short stocks and long gold, don't be. It is the logical ploy in a debt ridden paper market. It is ALL debt. Holding a long position on debt is completely insane. Chasing a yield using debt as risk capital (paying in time, labor and profits) is really out there. Where's the beef in the entire system and who gets the prime cut? Follow the money, real money.
the beef is in Dimon and Blankiepoo's ass pocket. rumors of QE 2.0 and still no talk of a job's package after two and a half years of stink. You biatches better figure out a way to black market your foodstamps and UI checks to buy your Health insurance. Obama could have been a Roosevelt but instead he chose to be a Jimmy Carter.
Obama IS FDR. However, he is just a tyro. Give him enough rope...... and he'll hang you. Ooops! You already did. Liberty is won through vigilance. Vigilance requires personal attention. We left that by the wayside in 1913.
End the FED and you end the bloated bureaucracy.
You are not just attacking the bankers with an audit, you are attacking their political flunkies as well. Hence the destruction of Ron Paul's bill in the senate. Remember the nay-sayers.
FDR was 10x the FAIL jimmy carter ever was
enjoy court packing? threatening SCOTUS judges who spoke out against your New Deal? how's that social security working out?
You are woefully ignorant of History.
Social Security was never meant to be a retirement package.
Troops were killing WW1 veterans in DC. That was the mess FDR was up against. Communism even seemed a good idea to many.
The previous poster's mistake was to mention Carter.
Obama could have been a great FRD, he chose to be Herbert Hoover instead.
Just to amplify, FDR came into office without a clue what to do. He wouldn't even meet with Hoover to review what Hoover had been doing. And it is a simple fact that he continued and then massively expanded Hoover's Government-interventionist doctrines, adding a significant leavening of Communist fellow-travellers to his Adminstration while he was at it. The parallels with Bush and Obama are so striking as to be eerie.
Oh, and I being old enough to have had parents who lived through the FDR era, I might offer that, from what I learned that the dinnertable, the Communists were a menace, but never so much so as to justify the radical policies of FDR. (Whom my old Dad used to refer to as Franklin Destroyer Roosevelt.) Then as now, the Communist menace existed in two pustules, the union movement, and the universities. The more things change, the more they stay the same......
"The parallels with Bush and Obama are so striking as to be eerie. "
Well Merlin, if that is eerie, now throw in Pumping up the enemy (Prescott Bush/Standard Oil/IG Fraben) before declaring war on them.
Last decade and a bit, pumping up China before......
I'll leave you to complete the sentence.
If you mean FDR as the man who made gold possession illegal, devalued the doelar and created the SS ponzi scheme, I disagree with you.
They are ALL idiots (Obama/Carter/Roosevelt/Hoover). And check out the Delano's family bio. Drug and money runners for centuries.
+100