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Where Can We Hide???

RobotTrader's picture




 

 

With the dollar catapulting off the lows, once again commodity plays were scorched today, along with all of the financials.  But of course, money never leaves the stock market, it simply moves from one Keno Table to the next.  Money must be "working" at all times, constantly transferred to what ever table looks the best.

And of course today, the first choice was AMZN.

Second and third choices were the REITs, and the retail stocks, led by Radio Shack..

Even COH and WFMI were treated as "save havens" today against the relentless selling in bank stocks.

 

 

 

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Mon, 10/26/2009 - 15:45 | 110816 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

PWND has always been a safe haven

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 21:05 | 111137 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

It's about to get pwned

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 16:26 | 110849 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

...and then the line went dead.

You can only fight them so long before they come..., and shut your ass DOWN!

We will miss you RobotTrader.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 19:52 | 111051 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Peabody,

Your comment reminded about the Madoff story today.  You can't make this stuff up.  And anyone wonders why we have so many conspiracy theories?

 


An autopsy conducted Monday found he suffered a heart attack and drowned, said Dr. Michael Bell, chief medical examiner for Palm Beach County. The death has been ruled accidental, and the heart attack was brought on by heart disease. Toxicology tests are pending.

"Obviously, we won't have results for a couple of weeks but we don't anticipate them showing anything," Bell said. "If they do and it shows something unusual, we will amend the death certificate to reflect that."

Police had been investigating the death, pending the autopsy results. They now say the case is closed.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 16:32 | 110855 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

well, we can hide behind a poker table. If you ever play a "0 fee" poker tournament, let's say on the face book, you'll notice that 60+% of all players go all in at the very first turn. After couple of min, two of those will have most of the chips and will seem to be on the top of the world. However by the end of the game, rarely they move into the round two.

Same could be said about the current stock market action. The difference, everyone who goes all in, gets the most of the chips. The similarity, most of those will not survive for the round two. They will celebrate their 200% gains, then they will swallow their 95% losses and they will leave the market. As the result when fundamentals will return, those adrenaline junkies / alpha herders will miss most of the reasonable risk adjusted returns. They will come back at the top, losing much more than gaining next time.

 

Also, the same poker game is a good illustration on the behavior of how someone invests without risking his / her own capital and with own capital involved. In the first round, most of the people go all in. In the second round, only few or none people go in. It takes time to get to the second round & time invested (own capital invested) makes people to take risk more seriously.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:25 | 110922 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Comrade,

that is a nice analogy.

Why is it so hard to accept that cash is a position too?

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 16:47 | 110870 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

hide in your shell

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 16:48 | 110872 chet
chet's picture

"Where Can We Hide???"

Cue gold bugs in 5...4...3...

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:07 | 110887 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

Yeah, but you can't eat it.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 18:53 | 111000 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - you can't eat dollar bills either. 

                   

                    -_-

 

 

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 20:28 | 111086 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Hide in some HIG short. It looks like a dawg. Ready for tha dawg pound.

Rough day; try this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzl_3HNgQws

What did you do with Sergey? Free Sergey.

 

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:08 | 110888 walküre
walküre's picture

There is NO place to hide.

Everyone has bills to pay.

 

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:23 | 110915 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I personally think today was another headfake, not the start of a long correction. Did notice that the Ultrashort Silver Proshares (ZSL) was a top performer today, up 6.7%, but I wouldn't touch it. The solar sector got whacked hard as oil prices dropped and I think a beautiful buying opportunity is presenting itself there. I would start accumulating Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Suntech (STP), Yingli Green (YGE) and LDK Solar (LDK) at these levels.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 19:13 | 111019 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Is the TAN ETF a decent way to play this??

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 22:00 | 111191 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Decent but not great...volume is still low on this ETF.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:36 | 110938 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Today's first hours action jumping up 1% on no volume was ridiculous. Time to short them to hell.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 17:48 | 110946 hedgeyourmind.b...
hedgeyourmind.blogspot.com's picture

Jacques de La Palice (my french compatriot) could have said "We need sellers to get a severe correction".  He was right (as usual...). When I look to liquidity technicals, I'm happy to see a lot of selling power rather than buying power (whereas Goldman is propaganding a lot of buying power... see Zerohedge today at http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-observations-money-sidelines). Indeed: Hedge funds are back on a net long position (last time we ever saw such a position was in ... 2007), long only fund managers are fully invested (cash held is at almost a historical low  4% of NAV).... What did you say? Money market mutual funds are still at a very high level as a % of market cap? On the retail side, don't you believe that the underemployed or unemployed or the not-yet-sacked workers in this unsustainable job-le(o)ss (not-ended)recovery are going to play very tightly rather than playing very agressively (all-in pre-flops) in the great stock-casino-market? Yes with your cash you earn nothing.... as an interest. But you can prevent losing a lot of money as principal....

 

Patience is an old-fashioned way of investing.....

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 18:32 | 110983 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Good chance this is the top and it's time for a big drop...only reason is because nobody believes it's possible either from a bullish perspective or cynical bearish invisible hand POV (including myself). Just when we have all conceded the point that the market can't break support levels, that seems truly the contrarian moment for just such an event. 4th time we now hit a pullback in the last 3 months and we all expect another stick save (both bulls and bears) but just imagine we are all leaning into the support only to find...none? Shorts aren't shorting cause they all expect the bounce and longs are waiting for the turn...who's there to stop the descent? I'm probably wrong (again) but still, hmmmm.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 18:33 | 110986 deadhead
deadhead's picture

In the words of the venerable cheeky b...

 

more.meat

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 19:08 | 111015 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Went to the market to look at GMCR. One had about four feet of display space and selling it at about 30/lb . The next one, more high end, had a dedicated illegal display rack that did not label the cost per pound, though 24 single servings did cost 15. The rack was mostly full, maybe 15 percent offtake. Who am I to judge a 2.8 market cap, but that does tell you all you need to know about this market. Keep printing and see how well four dollar heating oil goes over in Ohio and Michigan this year. Guess we can print vouchers for that also though. Bidu is not doing well in afterhours, and we spoke so well of it just last Friday.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 19:31 | 111034 Rainman
Rainman's picture

An alternative view is that air is being let out of the bubble, profits taken and the boyz prepared for the next round of rock n' roll news. And since rock n' roll bad news is good and down is up, this was a no brainer Monday retreat to chase out the toppers and create a more appealing resistance  scenario in the same approximate range . 

RallyMonkey is getting old. They need a new strategy.

Or maybe that damn GDP number won't make it, even with Clunkers. 

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 20:34 | 111095 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think a fair question is how much of a safety net the Fed intervention has/will place under the market if/when the herd panics 20/30/40/50%? They (Fed GS et al) have been rather adroit at pumping the market up. Few here at ZH seem to think a soft landing is possible.

I have a bunch of buy orders in ...but they are all at 30-50% below the current market. I think there are alot folks with trailling stop losses. Stop losses have worked well when there are willing dip buyers but if not, stocks can express down in a hurry.

I follow with interest but don't automatically use a program called Smart Stops. I have had it for about four months now. Today two "close to stop" and two "triggered stops" out of ten. A record for me. A trend?

Stock Symbol Close Price
Change Short Term SmartStop Long Term SmartStop Comments
AINV 9.57 -0.08 8.94 8.93
COP 50.72 -1.25 48.90 47.94
DTE 37.55 -0.30 36.56 34.11
**EXC 48.60 -1.27 47.73 46.61 10/26 1:25 PM ST SmartStop Triggered @ $48.75

Stock Price Is Close To SmartStop

**GE 15.01 -0.19 14.79 14.16 10/26 12:05 P ST SmartStop Triggered @ $14.93

Stock Price Is Close To SmartStop

GSK 40.31 0.07 39.53 38.55
PFF 35.61 -0.06 35.12 34.70
PGF 15.80 0.10 15.44 15.32
**SO 32.58 -0.09 32.20 30.84 Stock Price Is Close To SmartStop

**TIP 102.72 -0.47 102.28 101.64 Stock Price Is Close To SmartStop (Why TIP has tracking the market is beyond me)

FYI- I already bailed on AINV and PFF. Bought the rest last spring for my IRA account where I like the interest rates I am getting. Plus I have a 25 year horizon, so I'll probably ride them down like a fool. Maybe I'll get my money back.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 20:39 | 111102 Trading Nymph
Trading Nymph's picture

Robot I was thinking the samething all day while I was waiting and waiting for AMZN to roll....they had to pick THAT table.....btw, I know you may have tried to throw us a hot guy to balance out your girl pics....but Jeff B...uhh so not hot.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 21:15 | 111150 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Alternatively, there will be plenty of diamond clad, NILE, luxury living college students, ACC, lounging around the POOL, in BGFV sportwear.

Mon, 10/26/2009 - 22:57 | 111252 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Watch the action in SH, SDS, QID and so forth.  There is a tell in there. I am not saying to buy just yet, just watch. This is not IT. First, it cannot happen. Dearest Leader's agenda would get fried, this is his economy. All will be done to keep it/market stable. When IT comes, there will be no stopping the slide. IT has to be a big honking event. Not a pissant bad GDP.

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