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Where To Invest Now: The Great Micro Vs Macro Debate
David Kostin has put together a ton of pretty charts in this attempt to convince everyone that the fair value of stocks is precisely +/- 1,350. The presentation gets interesting after page 26 (in fact you can skip part one which is merely the obligatory propaganda, and confirmation that Kostin refuses to read Jan Hatzius).
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Physical Gold, Bitchez. Ignore the above BS, I smell distribution.
I'm amazed that these big wire houses actually pay people to produce these reports.
When in reality, the prop desk guys, the mutual fund manglers, the hedge fund gamers, are all daytrading individual stocks using the following "macro" theme as a guide:
1) If it's a "leading stock", and if the chart looks good, and if its on a momentum run, BUY IT.
2) If it's a lagging stock, the chart is broken, and its going down, SELL IT.
3) Pick 10 such stocks, spread across different sectors, and trade those stocks only using a 15-min. and daily chart.
Sheesh, these firms could save millions by firing these researchers, economists, strategists, etc., and simply put up a scoreboard to see which guys are performing and which are not.
I doubt that it is that complicated in real life.
LOL.....
They produce it so they can justify the fraud that follows. It's the same method all institutions use. In Medicine, much of the "research" is not research at all, simply a way to say, "see, it says so here." Fraud, of all stripes, is endemic in this society.
Looks like Paulson has one foot in gold and one foot in shit.
Why does he own Kinross gold and Bank of America at the same time ?
I must say, I think Paulson has a terrible asset mix. It's like he's betting that inflation is a 100% certainty, with the risk that it tips into hyper inflation. The portfolio was a great one 12 months ago, when the big liquidity drive started, but it has completely run out of steam and his fund is so big, he gets screwed when he tries to sell.
Yep the asset mix is strange.
My theorey is that he just figures gold/miners is a good investment right now, reagrdless of hyperinflation, or any event like that. As has been proven, gold does well during deflation too.
The US bank holdings really make me wonder. Hyperinflation (the govt will call it currency reform) can only happen when the US banks go broke and it becomes clear that the real economy cannot pay the taxes that service the US govt debt. To me it is very clear that the deflating US economy is not capable of paying the tax to service the debt but some people still don't know their grade 8 math.
When the debt doesn't get serviced, the debt and the dollar get sold and the value of those dollars plummet and the cost of real goods goes up. (inflation)
Man of Quality:
You raise an interesting point re: where to invest.
Paulson made a bet on one fat tail. Is it better (returns, RAROC, etc.) to invest in center bets and try to move allocation slightly as the center moves, or is it better to bet on both fat tails at the same time?
Real simple example. A center position as 35% iboxx HG, 20% iboxx HY, and 35% SP500, (10% tactical).
Betting on tails would be like 40% long term government bonds, and 40% small cap indices from everywhere, and 20% tactical.
Cases of Boones Farm.
While the desire to see a cork bobbing in the bottle overwhelms the author from his twist top reverie.
S&P 1350 - 10yr 2.25 .. A return to fundamentals. hahahahahaha
Its incredulous huh Miles.
This is Alice in Wonderland on prozac.
After a massive snort of Xanax & Adderall with a Stoly chaser... As the limits of addiction are stretched even further to save the pain of doing without "medicine". How tragic.
Lets get Physical,Physical,Physical,ooohhhh lets get Physical ............ Real Gold Bitchez ... Yyyeeaahhh ........ What a Lustre ... Baby ......................
Where to put your money now? Under the mattress...safer than the banks but with the same great 0% rate they offer.
Why can't we print this document?
Stop looking to the Market for returns buy Real Estate.
Yes, the Market looks like the easy way to make money but it is not.
Remember the Cartoon that had the elevator to sucess? It said the elevator is broken take the stairs.
Buy, Real Estate the prices are depressed. You can get a great deal and your interest will be next to nothing. Hold it for a few years, rent it below your costs and you will be rewarded.
That is what happened in the 80"s although you had to pay 13% for a mortgage on a distressed property. Now you get the distressed price and the low interest rate.
Lots better than the Stock Market controled by Computers where your value is determined by a Computer program.
You are saying that all real estate has bottomed and can only go up from here?
Or have I missed previous comments that round out your theory?
He must be one of the last two or three remaining realtors.
Still too soon. Still to many "get rich with real estate" commercials. Still too many folks like yourself. (no offense) I'll start looking at real estate when I mention the word and get spit on and not a moment sooner. Thanks for the free advice though.
Like the start of the plunge in the fall of 2007, US stocks' leading indicators are best reflected in Asian manufacturing PMIs, and this morning China and South Korea just printed their 3rd successive month of PMI decline, creeping closer to below 50 (actually China's is well below 50 according to HSBC's survey, with new orders lower than Mar 2009 at around 47, while HSBC's anal-yst Mr Qu, like ECRI's recently strangely silent Mr Acushtan, was quick to point out at least this implied no further tightening by the PBoC, so market should still and always be bullish!) while the squids' anal-ysts claimed the chinese PMI figures were NOT sufficicently "seasonally adjusted"! Market (ie /ES and Asian stock markets) gapped up anyhow. They can pump and dump all they want, this is looking like fall of 2007 all over again, except yields are already at record low today so no more bullets, and QE1 has proven totally useless. Last hurray a-la 2000 dot-com bust, or fall of 2007, take your pick.