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Where NOT To Get Investment Advice
So the story, as told to me is that the bartender was pitching my friend hard on Caterpillar "because they figured out a way to run their machines using water instead of gasoline...they only need to refuel once a week!"
I won't say where I was at the time this story was told to me, but I
will tell you my reaction was a mixture of laughter and fear; laughter
at how ridiculous that sounded and fear that people who so clearly
should not be prognosticating (and worse, investing) in stocks, are.
Last I checked none of the major automakers have a
commercially-available hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle in the US or anywhere
else for that matter; the only one's I've seen/read about are
prototypes/engineering studies/etc. I've yet to read anything about
fuel cells powering large industrial vehicles (not to say it hasn't
been done).
I did a quick google search and found that Cat's power distribution business is involved in some hydrogen fuel-cell JV, but after playing around on CAT's website for a few minutes, the only semi-recent thing I found on fuel cells was a white-paper that included this in the introduction:
Reciprocating generator sets have recently been
overshadowed by new alternative fuel sources including wind, solar, and
fuel cells. This overshadowing is unwarranted since reciprocating
generator sets have been and will be the mainstay of support in the
sustainable energy space.
I didn't see any fuel cell products listed under the "products" section, either.
The timing of this story coincides with the post I wrote earlier today, wherein I argue that institutional investors shouldn't buy anything they can't analyze themselves. An interesting quasi-corollary from that post for retail investors goes along with what Macrotrdr wrote yesterday: even retail investors shouldn't even considering buying securities about which they have little/no understanding.
To be sure, 99.999% of retail investors likely can't figure out a
10-k or dcf model, but as long as they're not betting the bank, I don't
think there's anything wrong with retail investors allocating some % of
their investable assets to individual securities (depending on age,
income, etc). HOWEVER:
- That % should not be anywhere close to the majority of the portfolio,
- No one should EVER EVER under ANY circumstances buy a
stock/bond/whatever because of something a friend told them or a
headline they saw on Yahoo Finance or wherever, and lastly: - If/when a retail investor decides to buy an individual stock it
should only be AFTER doing cursory research. In this case: a simple
google search destroyed the purported investment "thesis" in 5 minutes.
I don't think what I'm suggesting here is beyond what anyone with a
brokerage account can handle. Anyone that buys some security at the
recommendation of a broker, a friend, a pundit without doing even the
slightest bit of cursory research and gets burned as a result deserves
it.
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Just like I thought. Still not one trade call. MAKE A CALL DOUCHEBAG. Your an analyst right? MAKE A FUCKING CALL.
I don't write an investment newsletter, so I'm not sure why all you want me to do is make trading calls. I have done so, as have the other members of the Stone Street Advisors team, but that isn't our main goal.
Who cares? Isn't there enough calls online already.
If you can get coal down to 5-micron size particles, you can mix it with water and use it in place of diesel fuel. However commercial scale production of such coal-water is not yet in place, and it doesn't let you run an engine "for a week".
I heard AMZN runs on snow.
if that's not a sign to get the fuck all out of the stock market, i don't know what is.
I wish analysis of the financials 'worked' ... like the old days.
But , everyone has that info and we are in a world where policy
trumps everything. You ride the trend (knowing the fundamentals
suck) and hope you can bail before the big money does. Its a big game
of chicken.
Truth is, most people have their savings and retirement held hostage by pension funds or companies like Fidelity or TIAA-CREF - they don't have many choices and are often bombarded with "bartender" advice from these "caring" companies.
"Pssst...hey buddy...double shot of Glenlivit, Patron, and a 20% tip to the bartender..."
No thanks, I'll take the Teacher's, Sauza, and make my own.
The word 'invested' is misleading...it implies some sort
intelligence or diligence. Is your 401K fully 'invested'? The
pension plan is 'invested' in ________. Bro, the 5 year TIPS
is the reality----the market expects NO real return for 5 years.
So go get a monkey and some darts and start 'investing".
Never buy any "investment."
for insightful market analysis unlike anal cyst's go to:
http://marketletters.blogspot.com/
no this is not my blog, but these bloggers are good. worth a read.
Thanks
Back in Denver, CO. in the late 70's, I worked with a small group of rocket scientists who were penny stock speculators. It took about three months of investigations into a company, its product and the market to consistently get 1000% returns on their investments. While I was there, they scored big on solars -- very nouveau at the time. They were extremely disciplined, always sold when they reached their goal, even if the stock had room to grow. I asked them if they were always this good. They laughed and said no, they had completely missed the real-estate boom around Vail, CO. in the late 50's and early 60s. They just didn't believe down hill skiing would become so popular.
What I learned: If you are going to speculate, do your research, set reasonable expectations and remain disciplined; but don't expect to see every opportunity, even those obvious to others.
Thank you for the most sane, informed comment on this thread so far. I am 100% serious here, that's a great anecdote and even though its 50+ years old, the take-aways still hold true. Thanks.
Oh yeah!
Cramer is a lacky! If you listen to him prepare to have a big account....he will smother it down to a few pennies.
I remember when he called to hold bear stearns right as the ship sunk to the bottom of the harbour. What a moron!
I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com he has been talking about this too.... funny thing is, he doesnt like plugging himself....but he has called many big events before they have happend, with proof too... including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and is uncannily accurate.
maybe this 2011 and 2012 end of the world thing just means the end of the financial world and complete collapse happening on slow mo??
Not knocking you but I just went to the linked website and the page opens up with "The Most Addictive & Highly Accurate Future Trends Experts Out There !"
thats a pretty big plug
Browns Gas, from HHO cells, can significantly reduce fuel consumption.
How? Because current engine technology only utilizes around 20% +/- of the combustive potential of fuel. The rest goes out the exhaust as pollution/unburnt gases etc. By introducing Browns gas into the intake manifold, this now causes a 99.9% or close to combustion rate, therby enormously reducing fuel consumption, and being incredibly kind to the environment (virtually nil poisionous exhaust gases). BOTS, (big oil trolls), post an incredible amount of dis-information about this tech, ie, the amperage required to run the fuel cell causes a negative output in terms of engine power lol. Of cause they gloss over the fact of the complete burn of the fuel providing a positive power outcome. Fuel savings of up to 60% are not uncommon, and all this from water(distilled). Distilled water units are as cheap as chips, typically an 8 cylinder engine gets around 30 hours from 10 litres of distilled water.
Ouch!
"without doing even the slightest bit of cursory research and gets burned as a result deserves it."
Are we really being real here? What research are we talkin? TA? I think the Reverend Bernank has cast a shadow upon the profession. Good old fashioned fundamental? With cooked books mark to make believe that makes Auther Anderson seem like a good accounting firm?
Maybe ride the bernank crack train? save yourself some time then and just BTFD, buy the index, screw the work. Just go with the money and hope they don't blow us all up.
Trying to "invest" in this market takes a level of self delusion I am just not capable of.
Now if you want to gamble, I hear timmay is running a multi billion dollar craps game with loaded dice. Hard to get an invite to that kinda game, must be sweet if you can get it.
anal cyst is an arrogant fucking douchetwat who has MADE NO CALLS
You get more junks if you say FAGGOT. I wonder if iget more saying FUCKING FAGGOT. Analcyst WHERES YOU BIG IDEA?
Fuel cells are batteries, an energy carrier, not an energy source. How is it possible that people so fucking dumb have a job better than minimum wage day laborers?
CAPS no caps. I want this fuckhole to make a call. His last shitstain was about him being a loser "achiever" who sucked at everything so he went into banking. Now hes putting down regular folk who invest based on things they might or might not know.
IF his ego is so fucking BIG about investing. LETS FUCKING HEAR A WINNER. AHEAD OF TIME. MAKE A CALL AND WIN TIMESTAMPED YOU FUCKING PIECE OF SHIT
Are you seriously defending the idea of NOT doing anything except buying on the whimsical advice of a stranger/trusted bartender? because that's what it looks like.
@ analcyst
What just nonsense and egojerking? Make a call already so we can see your skillllzzzzzz a
WHATS YOUR BEST TIP FAGGOT? I WANT TO HEAR A WINNER OR YOU ARE JUST ANOTHER FUCKING PUSSY BANKSTER FAGGOT KNOW NOTHING POMPOUS FUCK.
MAKE A CALL ANAL CYST
your caps lock is on
+ONE
My my you are an Angry chap. Wait are you Axman 13 from the below clip?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z2Z23SAFVA
Im nice rrrrreally. I just hate pompous fucks like analcyst who HAVE NO SKILLZ
I made 20% in 2008, what about you? Short consumer discretionary. I'm far from pompous, and if you think I am, you haven't really read anything I've posted.
Ya so instead of bashing others and spewing your nothing achievments WHATS YOUR INVESTMENT CALL DICKFACE??? HUH???
I said short WLT at the close yesterday and buy tbt putsin the am today.
SO WHATS YOUR FUCKING CALL FAGGOT INSTEAD OF BASHING PEOPLE YOU THINK ARE STUPID YOU POS DUMKBFUCK. MAKE A CALL OR SHUT THE FUCK UP
Only buy a stock after its doubled, that's my motto...
I only buy stocks during POMO operations. Why tempt fate?
I only buy after my martinini's doubled. We should compare notes...
Watch Cramer. Listen carefully. Do the opposite.
the road to riches is clear and paved.