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This Is Where The Post-FOMC Vol Went...

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There was a time when stocks would make massive moves in the post-FOMC minutes, when there were actually things called "traders" participating in this algorithmic joke of a matrix/market. Not anymore. Which is not saying there is no vol. As we have now long been claiming, the only vol left is in FX and commodities. Observe the reaction in the EURUSD. With 500 margin, someone just got totally wiped out.

 


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Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant.

Ker-plunk!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That was me dropping a turd in my toilet, sorry.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hopefully not THE Turd. :>)

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Don't pinch the gold. Getting it back is a bitch

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment tom
tom's picture

With 500 margin you're practically guaranteed to get wiped out. That's why the bucket shops offer it.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

100 pips up and 100 pips down in a span of 10 minutes. Now that's excitement!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shaking the fleas off of the dog!  Wag, wag and shake, shake.  The dollar is capitulating, gold shoots higher, silver and oil stop and look, and platinum says, 'F*** this, I'm out!'

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Scisco
Scisco's picture

Thank you for the succinct summery. I loled.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

nice!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Wow the USD bears just won't let up . Immediately pumping the EUR right back up . Oh and of course that minor blip in equities is now being fully corrected .

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Odd.  There was a lot of equity trading on the FOMC release.  However, all of the selling was...how to describe it...absorbed.

Alas, the ETFs and their wonderful creation units machines at work.  When folk figure out how sell offs [like the one that just happened] can occur without causing the index to even flinch...it is then that people will sell their very last share and never return.

Trading infinity shares...now that is good work if you can get it.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

If I may, I have one word and one word only: unfuckingbelievable.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

That word works well right there, Orly.  45 minutes of straight hard selling...and the index didn't flinch.

What we have here is a synthemarket.

However...I still see the entire set up as one for the USD to simply come in and wipe out everyone.  It is the one thing that could happen, that shouldn't happen, and if it happens, humiliates the most people.

 

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like little starlet Miss Euro simultaneously hurled over the rail then was handed a pipe of crystal meth by a Chinese gentleman...back to the party for now!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Ah ha!  So there's the rub, eh?

It tripped the wire coming off the FOMC report, breaking a downtrend line that marked the cap.  Fat candles, too, coming down...then, <<braaaaake!>>.  Back up.

I'm glad I'm getting a great education here, otherwise, I'd be pissed.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Handed a crack pipe...not by a Chinese gentleman, Dog...but by none other than L. Blankfein.  You'd think she would be way beneath him.

Yep...she is back at the party...but just barely by the looks of it.  There is still time for her to make it back to the railing.

 

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What self respecting drunken starlet would be seen partying with the likes of Lord Blankfeinstein? He's so creepy lookin! Humiliating if caught on paparazi camera. She must be losin it.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

You mean the USDJPY or USDCHF ramps to the moon, crushing the Euro along with it?  Would the ten year cooperate with that evil plan of yours?

I like synthemarket.  I can't come up with another word that even comes close.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Orly,

As I have said before, I keep a pretty narrow view on currencies.  I pay close attention to the EUR/USD pair because that one contains the more important catalyst for the US equity market...which is why L. Blankfein was just spotted giving little Miss Euro a crack pipe.  He needs to keep her dancing.

Indeed, SyntheMarket, able to reconstitute itself from end to end in 2.3 milliseconds.  Travesty.

A big thanks to Ben Bernanke and the whole criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.  Woot!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 20:39 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Your first visit to the Holo-deck?

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Got to take the drawdowns...

Got to take the drawdowns...

<<raaaaaalph>>

Okay.  Better.

Got to take the drawdowns.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

robo fail?

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment something fishy
something fishy's picture

lol! That's why you should never use 500X leverage in FX...or anything else for that matter.  

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

I've only traded (if my lack of success over the last year can be called trading) for 3 years or so - I've wondered what being in a bubble would be like, now I know.

DavidC

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:54 | Link to Comment alter ego
alter ego's picture

Sooner or later the market will tell the Fed.

Here is your f...ing money!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:54 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Equities are trading in a much tighter range from many reasons. It's not odd that there was no big move up or down on a completely expected announcement. Add to that the fact that the market continues to move up in a nice orderly fashion, it's easy to see why there is no big bounce.

Actually, it's quite good for the continuation of the bull market that the slow steady nature of the rally continues even on a FOMC day.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I'd bet your a big fan of Mussolini.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

everyone slates HW but he isn't the one causing the market to trade in this fashion and if he's making money off of it then good luck to him. Taking a moralistic view and moaning about how the market "should" be will not change the fact that it isn't. Not saying I am long the market but if someone is making money out of it with decent downside risk management protection then they are outperforming most people on ZH

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Very well said, 4X.  It ain't Harry doing these shenanigans.  I hope he's getting as "lucky" as I am "unlucky."

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

I face the same problem daily Orly. Trying to apply logic and reason to something that lacks both :)

At this point it takes some real guts to get long everything but I suppose that is why it keeps just creeping higher.....

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Hang in there, 4X, bloody fingernails and all.  I'm right there with you!

They can't keep it up forever.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

harryWangster is pure code, a robot, a computer enhanced hallucination.

go ahead and ask the wanger a question. the reply will be standard operating procedural. maybe with a misspell or two.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 20:42 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, by your logic, the guard turning on the gas at Auschwitz carried NO moral responsibilities -- check your premises.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Well, first of all, I would say that it is you who should get a grip on reality.  Losing a couple thousand dollars as opposed to gassing a population to death has no comparison at all.  A bit of hyperbole there, wouldn't you say?

____________

By your comparison, it would be the people feeding the machines on Liberty.  They are told what to buy, so they buy it.  Are they guilty of a crime?  Did they know it was wrong that they are putting a lot of people in financial jeopardy and stealing from honest traders?

Yes, they should go to jail, too.  First, let's get the big fish, though.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Your eyes are closed Harry.

The Fed is overtly trying to keep the stock market bouyed up. On one of the late night TV shows here in the UK last week (Newsnight) an ex-MPC member kept referring to getting back to normaility.

Well, the last time the stock markets were up here was in 2000 (the tech bubble) and 2007 (the housing bubble) - at these levels, even if the economy is 'recovering' (which I doubt) we are back in bubble land.

Honestly, I can't believe some of the stuff you're writing here today.
DavidC

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

why not believe Harry? is the land of the lalalahhh and Mark to Prosperity accounting.

keep it up Harry - you are on the right path.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:04 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Oh, and I suspect the reason the market is 'trading in a tight range' is, because the Dow's been pumped up to 12,000 and the S&P is getting close to 1300, the Fed (or whoever) is desparate to keep it there for today.

Cynical? Yes.
DavidC

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry believes 'normalcy' is when markets are at their all time bubble peak highs...in other words, hes a moron sheeple.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'The date' will be a rear-view mirror event....prepare accordingly.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:09 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I need dates. The words soon and eventually are bullish and mean shit. No dates = Rally on.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Harry, the reason why the market is up is because you keep pulling all your thoughts out of your arse...

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Markets going up since Sept. 09 with manipulated actors behind. Mr. Harry Wanger BTFD you were many times right but for the wrong reasons.

My believe is that POMO and other digital printing presses are behind the market moves. Hence they go up.

Crack up boom is probably the best word explaining those akward always up moves in the SPX or DOW. We may see a slight correction short term but medium and long term we will increase.

Looking for DOW 20'000 by the end of 2012.

At the same time looking for Gold 2'200 by the end of 2012.

The question is how high will inflation be? This will show in the DOW/GLD ratio. I guess real growth rates to real base values like PMs will be less.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Just_Another_User
Just_Another_User's picture

EUR & DX are slightly out & w/ in the days range (respectively) & at this point have completely flattened... nothing to see here... juuust keep it moving.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

So, will the demise of the Euro as we know it precede or post cede the dollear . I remember, here on the Hedge and in my mind, the Euro was dead fall /early winter last year. Parity..... was the majority opinion.

Just goes to show that being in this game without total insider information is bad for your financial and mental health. Metal health, not that is a whole other thing.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/11/12/wisdom-for-warriors-3/

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Like betting on which of the 2 winos staggering down an alley holding each other up and singing drunken pub songs will be the first to finally topple over into a trash can. Who knows!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

LOL!

I'm going with little Miss Euro as the one that accidentally tumbles into the dumpster.  Then, of course, comes the photographer from der Spiegel.

Anyway, what with her being all knocked up by Ben Bernanke, you'd think she would be at home drinking orange juice or something, Dog.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

It is those stupid trailing orders that traders like to submit.

Trailing stops are surest means to a losing trade.  The market makers look at your order,put it into a computer, and wait for when there are no bids, and then the action begins.  Takes only milliseconds.

Flash trashed.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment satansanus
satansanus's picture

They do the up/down jerk after every FMOC

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

A 70 pip move, what's so special about that? Happens every once in a while. The yen gapped down 800 pips one day in the late 90s. 70 pips is nothing to write home about.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Salinger
Salinger's picture

that or Canada

tsx up 215  1.7%+

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I can Hedge. Off topic netflix OK! Starbucks barff barff. They Did a small rebrand and closed tonnes or tons, of stores. Look @ Revenue!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I give up!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Some people really hate hearing a contrary view. Why else junk hw and call him names? You suffer from confirmation bias if you only seek opinions of others if they echo your own. Maybe things will collapse maybe not, but for hard core.collapsaholics the first step to recovery is admitting there is a problem. Such rigid thinking will cause your portfolio to be inefficient.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

can you go long vol for half an hour over the release via buying put or call options and selling at the top and tail...would love to do that x 500 if i had the big kahunas and a nice juicy tight spread!

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

The FX market is far more difficult to manipulate than the equities market . Recent history is littered with the corpses of central banks who tried to intervene and influence the direction of their respective currencies . The SNB and the BOJ are the two most notable victims . If you're looking to trade in an environment that hasn't been overrun by manipulation , low volume and computer programmes then FX really is the place to be .

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Except to say that when 4X is trading on risk appetite alone, which it is now.

Cdad says that some dude named Lloyd was seen handing the Euro a crack pipe on the Lido deck.

If they can make the SPX do what they want, risk appetite does what they want, so the Euro dances to their tune...

 

until it doesn't.

_____

By the way, are you seeing the dive in the USDJPY going into the close?

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

True that , but unlike other risk linked curriencies the Euro has major structural issues which means that whenever yields and CDS for PIIGS bonds blow out it tanks .

I say pass me that pipe , I need something to keep my nervy sanity in check .

And that dance will end soon enough . When correlations between asset classes break they break hard . I still have nightmares about a certain summer's day back in 2010 when the Euro decoupled with risk and rallied as stocks tanked .

 

Yeah not liking that dive but do you see where USD/JPY is holding up ? Right at a 61.8% Fib .

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

That Fib level has held 3 or 4 times now .

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

What else is weird is that every other pair ended the day where they started, too.  This day never happened, apparently.

Welcome to the Twilight Zone, boys and girls.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Yep lot's of doji patterns today . Some violent breakouts are brewing , and judging by recent price action they could very well be USD negative . So much for my Dollar bullishness !

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Just keep a eye on the US 10-year.  If it goes up, the dollar should go up.  If it goes down, the USD should go down.

You can watch it intra-day here: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/tnx

It looks from the chart of TNX to be fairly rangebound over the past month or so.  Watch for the break higher or lower and play the USDJPY pair accordingly.  I have heard some contibutors here on ZH say it may be headed back to three.  We'll see.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

these jokers dont seem to have any trouble pip-clipping

http://www.fxtraderscorp.net/trading_results/?cat=3

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

volatility is great in fx .  scalpers dream

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

another berserker freaked algo rip and run and gun of the stops. it hurts to be the lowest bitch on the block.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Deathtöngue
Deathtöngue's picture

You're all just jealous because you didn't buy the dip.

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment chirobliss
chirobliss's picture

Volatility? What are you guys smokin"? I've seen more volatility in MSFT on the 4th of July holiday.

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